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Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017?

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Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#1 » by hookshot199 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:56 pm

I realize there's an official 'Heat Pick Watch' thread, but the focus is on the Sixers receiving the pick this coming June. But if you're watching the standings closely, Miami is now contention to hit the '10' spot, meaning the pick could be deferred until 2016, when Wade will be a year older (also top-10 protected), or 2017 (unprotected), when the Heat could be one of the five worst teams in basketball.

The Sixers - in theory - could get a top-5 pick again just as Embiid and possibly Saric - also in theory - begin to make their mark.

For the Heat to fall to 10th, Sacramento and Denver have to pass them. Both are better teams. Both are in the West, unfortunately. Still, both have 15 losses, only one more than Miami's 14. Orlando with younger legs and a center would have to pass them. So would Brooklyn. Orlando is still a long shot (down four in the loss column), but the Heat are a bad team now, and I'm one of those who believes that Bosh will fizzle out toward the end of the season.

Could Milwaukee fall into the bottom 10 without Parker? Of course. Will New York - and their '$125 million Man' - make a move out of the bottom 10? Not likely. Will Charlotte improve?

Clearly, Boston and Minnesota are now tanking. The Lakers should tank, but Kobe, with his 20-plus shots per game, will make sure that they don't get a top-five pick. Etc.

The bottom 10 as I see it now:

1) Philly
2) Detroit
3) Minnesota
4) Knicks
5) Boston
6) Lakers
7) Utah
8) Indiana
9) ????
10) ????

Contending for the 9th and 10th spots: Milwaukee, Charlotte, Miami, Sacramento, Denver and Brooklyn. It's possible Hinkie lucked out and made another smart move.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#2 » by WVU » Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:16 pm

Cool thought but I highly doubt, with being in the East, Miami misses the playoffs this year. We'd have to have a lot of things go right for us to end up with them giving us a high-lotto pick two years from now. Remember, Miami is an attractive destination for free-agents and they could just as easily nab a good player to keep them fending for the playoffs next year and the year after.

Not that I wouldn't like a top 5 pick in 2017.. I just think it's a long shot and we shouldn't get too enamored with the possibility.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#3 » by hookshot199 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:48 pm

WVU wrote:Remember, Miami is an attractive destination for free-agents and they could just as easily nab a good player to keep them fending for the playoffs next year and the year after.



But they don't have any flexibility to move players. Depending on which payroll numbers you look at, they're around $70 mil this year and next. Next to Carmello, Bosh may turn out to be one of the worst signings at $20-plus per year for five years. Haslem, Granger, Deng, McRoberts and Wade are all tied in through 2016. Haslem, Granger and Wade appear to be on the down cycle. McRoberts was never more than a mediocre player. Deng - who knows? Their guards are small. I don't see how they can fix it. They don't appear to have cap space to sign a good player (I don't know if they have any trade exceptions). And they don't have anyone they can trade.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#4 » by DavidHume » Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:58 pm

hookshot199 wrote:I realize there's an official 'Heat Pick Watch' thread, but the focus is on the Sixers receiving the pick this coming June. But if you're watching the standings closely, Miami is now contention to hit the '10' spot, meaning the pick could be deferred until 2016, when Wade will be a year older (also top-10 protected), or 2017 (unprotected), when the Heat could be one of the five worst teams in basketball.

The Sixers - in theory - could get a top-5 pick again just as Embiid and possibly Saric - also in theory - begin to make their mark.

For the Heat to fall to 10th, Sacramento and Denver have to pass them. Both are better teams. Both are in the West, unfortunately. Still, both have 15 losses, only one more than Miami's 14. Orlando with younger legs and a center would have to pass them. So would Brooklyn. Orlando is still a long shot (down four in the loss column), but the Heat are a bad team now, and I'm one of those who believes that Bosh will fizzle out toward the end of the season.

Could Milwaukee fall into the bottom 10 without Parker? Of course. Will New York - and their '$125 million Man' - make a move out of the bottom 10? Not likely. Will Charlotte improve?

Clearly, Boston and Minnesota are now tanking. The Lakers should tank, but Kobe, with his 20-plus shots per game, will make sure that they don't get a top-five pick. Etc.

The bottom 10 as I see it now:

1) Philly
2) Detroit
3) Minnesota
4) Knicks
5) Boston
6) Lakers
7) Utah
8) Indiana
9) ????
10) ????

Contending for the 9th and 10th spots: Milwaukee, Charlotte, Miami, Sacramento, Denver and Brooklyn. It's possible Hinkie lucked out and made another smart move.


It seems to me that you have left out an important factor here. For the Heat to fall to 10th, they have to fail to make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, then they won't be in the bottom 14. In order to not make the playoffs, there have to be 8 teams in the east with better records than the Heat. That's what you have to account for.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#5 » by hookshot199 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:21 pm

DavidHume wrote:
hookshot199 wrote:For the Heat to fall to 10th, they have to fail to make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, then they won't be in the bottom 14. In order to not make the playoffs, there have to be 8 teams in the east with better records than the Heat. That's what you have to account for.



I think I did. I just didn't state it the way you did. But to be in the bottom 10, Brooklyn and Orlando both would have to pass them. Then either Milwaukee can't free fall (a possibility with Parker out for the season) or Charlotte has to start winning. Brooklyn also has three untradable players - Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez. They're basically in the same situation as Miami. Orlando should improve as the season progresses.

Then the question is: Can Milwaukee keep playing .500 ball without Parker? If they can, Miami probably doesn't make the top 8. Or can Charlotte turn it around? Granted, their roster is weak. But they're not a 6-19 team.

Just my opinion.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#6 » by wickedwrister » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:36 pm

I mentioned in the heat pick watch that I'm hoping the pick rolls over. If it does roll over I can't imagine the Heat are much better next year so hopefully it would roll over again. At that point the Heat will likely be able to add or 2 max players and the question becomes is an aging Bosh and the lure ofSouth Beach enough for the Heat to retool. This becomes a worst case scenario then because the pick could be in the low 20s in 2017.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#7 » by DavidHume » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:47 pm

I see now that you did mention Orlando and Brooklyn. Fair enough.

I don't think it's worth focusing on what happens in the west. All of the eastern teams currently not holding a playoff spot are in the bottom 10 overall. If Miami drops out of the playoffs, then they will likely also drop below Sacramento and Denver.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#8 » by Snotbubbles » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:48 pm

wickedwrister wrote:I mentioned in the heat pick watch that I'm hoping the pick rolls over. If it does roll over I can't imagine the Heat are much better next year so hopefully it would roll over again. At that point the Heat will likely be able to add or 2 max players and the question becomes is an aging Bosh and the lure ofSouth Beach enough for the Heat to retool. This becomes a worst case scenario then because the pick could be in the low 20s in 2017.


Another factor to consider is adding two top 10 picks to the team. I have doubts that even if the Sixers land the Heats 2017 unprotected pick it will land in the top 5.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#9 » by wickedwrister » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:39 pm

Snotbubbles wrote:
wickedwrister wrote:I mentioned in the heat pick watch that I'm hoping the pick rolls over. If it does roll over I can't imagine the Heat are much better next year so hopefully it would roll over again. At that point the Heat will likely be able to add or 2 max players and the question becomes is an aging Bosh and the lure ofSouth Beach enough for the Heat to retool. This becomes a worst case scenario then because the pick could be in the low 20s in 2017.


Another factor to consider is adding two top 10 picks to the team. I have doubts that even if the Sixers land the Heats 2017 unprotected pick it will land in the top 5.


Unlikely but as a trade chip the pick would be worth more than it currently is worth. Sixers will already have 2 1sts to work in the next 2 years with Embiid and Saric joining the respective 1st round picks.

I don't think there is a bad outcome here, if we get the pick in 2015 let Hinkie work his magic and hopefully get a lottery talent that slipped a little. If it rolls over then it gives him more ammo to go after any star that shakes loose from their current team.
The feedback I've received from our fans is they understand we are trying to build something great. Good decisions come from having a broad set of options and making tough calls. We will do it unblinkingly. We have to be willing to take smart risks-Hinkie
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#10 » by James40 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:46 pm

The cap has to significantly go up soon as well, with the new TV deal, if not the players will opt out of the current CBA in 2017.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#11 » by BoomBap » Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:53 pm

I think the Heat will finish 7th or 8th in the east.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#12 » by hookshot199 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:19 pm

wickedwrister wrote:At that point the Heat will likely be able to add or 2 max players and the question becomes is an aging Bosh and the lure ofSouth Beach enough for the Heat to retool. This becomes a worst case scenario then because the pick could be in the low 20s in 2017.


I just look at the Heat's roster and there's not a single player except Chalmers, Wade and Bosh who will be more than a rotation player in 2017 and, more likely than not, a deep bench player. There's nothing there. And Wade already is starting to look like Iverson toward the end of his career. And Bosh, good as he is now, will be less efficient in 2017 and surely not worth his $20+ mil salary.

I don't see how two max players will be enough when there's nothing else. They'll have no bench. And max players aren't necessarily LeBron or Wade.

Anyway, it's a win-win situation for the Sixers. We'll get an 11-15 pick this year or next or, I believe, a high lottery pick in 2017.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#13 » by sixerswillrule » Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:48 pm

I'd say it's 75% likely we get the Heat pick this year.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#14 » by Mik317 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:15 pm

Riley is too smart to allow them to bottom out that year
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#15 » by hookshot199 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:50 pm

Mik317 wrote:Riley is too smart to allow them to bottom out that year


But what can he do to fix it? The Heat have a terrible roster. And free agents, mediocre free agents, aren't cheap. McRoberts, $22 mil/four years. Meeks, $18 mil/three years. Nick Young, $21 mil/four years.

He was able to get LeBron because of Wade. No one's going to come to Miami today because of Wade.

He needs to find a way to win enough games to lose their pick this year, then blow it up and start over.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#16 » by hookshot199 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:59 pm

sixerswillrule wrote:I'd say it's 75% likely we get the Heat pick this year.


How far they have fallen. Back in August, many prognosticators had them in the top 20. I wouldn't bet against your 75%. On the other hand, if Wade and Bosh aren't healthy - and the likelihood is that one or the other won't be - they may not be a .500 team even in the East.
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Re: Trade of the Year: Thad for a 'top 5' in 2017? 

Post#17 » by Ericb5 » Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:59 am

I have too much respect for too many of the Heat's players to think that this could happen.

Is still think that they will end up in the 16-18 range, which is a heck of a lot better than I thought when the trade happened.


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