2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
To all, Happy Fourth of July.
I want to try this out before stirring things up on the general board.
It would appear to me that Sacramento has not upgraded their team by their free-agent acquisitions to date. Which means: There is a very good chance they will be a bottom-10 team again in the 2016 draft, probably 6 or 7 tops, since everybody but the Lakers and Blazers have improved or are holding steady. Which means: We would swap picks with them.
I would assume that we're going to win 30 games and they're not (we're in the East, whey play in the West).
Secondly, the Lakers look almost certain to be one of the five worst teams in the league next year. Which means: 4 & 5 (their lottery pick) would go to us; 3, a 50:50 chance to us because 50% of the time someone jumps into the top three.
So, a fairly good chance we'll get two top-7 picks.
In 2017, if we don't claim the Lakers pick in 2016, it becomes unprotected. The Lakers still won't have a center and aren't likely to sign one, Kobe will have retired, and the jury will still be out on Russell. The big questions: Will Russell be good enough to carry a team by himself? And will the Lakers be able to attract any of the big free-agent names in July 2016?
In 2018 with Cousins likely to seek greener pastures, will Sacramento be better or worse than in 2015, 2016 and 2017? Not likely in my opinion. Meaning: We could very well inherit another top-5 pick?
And anything to do with the Miami and Oklahoma City picks is separate.
My thoughts.
Enjoy your Fourth.
I want to try this out before stirring things up on the general board.
It would appear to me that Sacramento has not upgraded their team by their free-agent acquisitions to date. Which means: There is a very good chance they will be a bottom-10 team again in the 2016 draft, probably 6 or 7 tops, since everybody but the Lakers and Blazers have improved or are holding steady. Which means: We would swap picks with them.
I would assume that we're going to win 30 games and they're not (we're in the East, whey play in the West).
Secondly, the Lakers look almost certain to be one of the five worst teams in the league next year. Which means: 4 & 5 (their lottery pick) would go to us; 3, a 50:50 chance to us because 50% of the time someone jumps into the top three.
So, a fairly good chance we'll get two top-7 picks.
In 2017, if we don't claim the Lakers pick in 2016, it becomes unprotected. The Lakers still won't have a center and aren't likely to sign one, Kobe will have retired, and the jury will still be out on Russell. The big questions: Will Russell be good enough to carry a team by himself? And will the Lakers be able to attract any of the big free-agent names in July 2016?
In 2018 with Cousins likely to seek greener pastures, will Sacramento be better or worse than in 2015, 2016 and 2017? Not likely in my opinion. Meaning: We could very well inherit another top-5 pick?
And anything to do with the Miami and Oklahoma City picks is separate.
My thoughts.
Enjoy your Fourth.
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
Kings pick is top ten protected in 18 and 19. Lakers pick is still top 3 protected in 17
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
sixers23 wrote:Kings pick is top ten protected in 18 and 19. Lakers pick is still top 3 protected in 17
yeah its not unprotected in 2018, either way i think eventually we'll get a top 5 pick from the lakers
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
sixers23 wrote:Kings pick is top ten protected in 18 and 19. Lakers pick is still top 3 protected in 17
I wasn't even counting the 2018 pick - top 10 protected to Chicago, I believe. I'm referring to the swaps. Are you saying that the second potential swap in 2018 is top-10 protected?
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
hookshot199 wrote:sixers23 wrote:Kings pick is top ten protected in 18 and 19. Lakers pick is still top 3 protected in 17
I wasn't even counting the 2018 pick - top 10 protected to Chicago, I believe. I'm referring to the swaps. Are you saying that the second potential swap in 2018 is top-10 protected?
The swap options are in 2016 and 2017, not 2018. 2018 is first year when we could acquire their top 10 protected 1st (assuming their 2016 pick falls outside of the top 10 and goes to Chicago).
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
The Sixer Fixer wrote:hookshot199 wrote:sixers23 wrote:Kings pick is top ten protected in 18 and 19. Lakers pick is still top 3 protected in 17
I wasn't even counting the 2018 pick - top 10 protected to Chicago, I believe. I'm referring to the swaps. Are you saying that the second potential swap in 2018 is top-10 protected?
The swap options are in 2016 and 2017, not 2018. 2018 is first year when we could acquire their top 10 protected 1st (assuming their 2016 pick falls outside of the top 10 and goes to Chicago).
So again, my understanding is that the swap options are not protected? Basically like the Brooklyn/Celtics swap options?
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
We assume that with the few players the Knicks signed, and Carmelo returning that they will not be among the terribly bad teams. We will need to form chemistry here with all our new players like Okafor, Stauskas, and the rest so we will struggle yes, and I suspect Minnesota will as well. But the Lakers and Sac will be right there. Unless the Lakers win the Lottery again, I suspect they will select around 6-10 at best. And Sac will finish no better then the 7th spot in the Lottery, so that adds chances for us to win it. But regardless, we will have a TON of Ammo to use next off-season as it goes to trying to convince a Vet Star player to either sign here...or agree to be traded here, and THEN it really starts ( The winning )
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
hookshot199 wrote:
So again, my understanding is that the swap options are not protected? Basically like the Brooklyn/Celtics swap options?
That is correct based on everything reported. The only "protection" is that we have no swap option in 2016 if the Kings pick is outside of the top 10. Granted, that's a moot point as our pick would be highly unlikely to be lower that their's if that's the case.
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
sixerkitty wrote:We assume that with the few players the Knicks signed, and Carmelo returning that they will not be among the terribly bad teams. We will need to form chemistry here with all our new players like Okafor, Stauskas, and the rest so we will struggle yes, and I suspect Minnesota will as well. But the Lakers and Sac will be right there. Unless the Lakers win the Lottery again, I suspect they will select around 6-10 at best. And Sac will finish no better then the 7th spot in the Lottery, so that adds chances for us to win it. But regardless, we will have a TON of Ammo to use next off-season as it goes to trying to convince a Vet Star player to either sign here...or agree to be traded here, and THEN it really starts ( The winning )
So basically, sixerkitty, we're in agreement - that the Lakers and Sacramento will both finish below us in 2015-2016 which, in Sacramento's case, means we would inherit the right to their pingpong balls. And in the Lakers case: either get their top-three protected pick in 2016 or unprotected pick in 2017.
And then, if I understand the trade, we would inherit Sacramento's pingpong balls once more in the event we have a better record than them. And this has nothing to do with the top-10 protected pick we'll eventually inherit. If I understand the order of things (Chicago first) it could be in the next millennium…
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
hookshot199 wrote:sixerkitty wrote:We assume that with the few players the Knicks signed, and Carmelo returning that they will not be among the terribly bad teams. We will need to form chemistry here with all our new players like Okafor, Stauskas, and the rest so we will struggle yes, and I suspect Minnesota will as well. But the Lakers and Sac will be right there. Unless the Lakers win the Lottery again, I suspect they will select around 6-10 at best. And Sac will finish no better then the 7th spot in the Lottery, so that adds chances for us to win it. But regardless, we will have a TON of Ammo to use next off-season as it goes to trying to convince a Vet Star player to either sign here...or agree to be traded here, and THEN it really starts ( The winning )
So basically, sixerkitty, we're in agreement - that the Lakers and Sacramento will both finish below us in 2015-2016 which, in Sacramento's case, means we would inherit the right to their pingpong balls. And in the Lakers case: either get their top-three protected pick in 2016 or unprotected pick in 2017.
And then, if I understand the trade, we would inherit Sacramento's pingpong balls once more in the event we have a better record than them. And this has nothing to do with the top-10 protected pick we'll eventually inherit. If I understand the order of things (Chicago first) it could be in the next millennium…
we get the right to swap with sac AFTER the lottery
so lets say we end up the 3rd worst and they end up the 5th worst, if they get the 2nd pick and we get the 4th, we can swap for their pick which is the 2nd pick
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
joyeuxnoel wrote:hookshot199 wrote:sixerkitty wrote:We assume that with the few players the Knicks signed, and Carmelo returning that they will not be among the terribly bad teams. We will need to form chemistry here with all our new players like Okafor, Stauskas, and the rest so we will struggle yes, and I suspect Minnesota will as well. But the Lakers and Sac will be right there. Unless the Lakers win the Lottery again, I suspect they will select around 6-10 at best. And Sac will finish no better then the 7th spot in the Lottery, so that adds chances for us to win it. But regardless, we will have a TON of Ammo to use next off-season as it goes to trying to convince a Vet Star player to either sign here...or agree to be traded here, and THEN it really starts ( The winning )
So basically, sixerkitty, we're in agreement - that the Lakers and Sacramento will both finish below us in 2015-2016 which, in Sacramento's case, means we would inherit the right to their pingpong balls. And in the Lakers case: either get their top-three protected pick in 2016 or unprotected pick in 2017.
And then, if I understand the trade, we would inherit Sacramento's pingpong balls once more in the event we have a better record than them. And this has nothing to do with the top-10 protected pick we'll eventually inherit. If I understand the order of things (Chicago first) it could be in the next millennium…
we get the right to swap with sac AFTER the lottery
so lets say we end up the 3rd worst and they end up the 5th worst, if they get the 2nd pick and we get the 4th, we can swap for their pick which is the 2nd pick
That is correct. But to the other poster...No, I am not 100 % convinced we will have a better record then either the Kings or Lakers. We are still shuffling around many new players. We have no idea where Embiid stands, and even if he plays, he still is very Raw...will foul out a lot early on. We have to see if Noel has Improved his offense from the PF position. Just a lot to still see. I suspect we might be at best a 23-26 win team.
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
hookshot199 wrote:sixerkitty wrote:We assume that with the few players the Knicks signed, and Carmelo returning that they will not be among the terribly bad teams. We will need to form chemistry here with all our new players like Okafor, Stauskas, and the rest so we will struggle yes, and I suspect Minnesota will as well. But the Lakers and Sac will be right there. Unless the Lakers win the Lottery again, I suspect they will select around 6-10 at best. And Sac will finish no better then the 7th spot in the Lottery, so that adds chances for us to win it. But regardless, we will have a TON of Ammo to use next off-season as it goes to trying to convince a Vet Star player to either sign here...or agree to be traded here, and THEN it really starts ( The winning )
So basically, sixerkitty, we're in agreement - that the Lakers and Sacramento will both finish below us in 2015-2016 which, in Sacramento's case, means we would inherit the right to their pingpong balls. And in the Lakers case: either get their top-three protected pick in 2016 or unprotected pick in 2017.
And then, if I understand the trade, we would inherit Sacramento's pingpong balls once more in the event we have a better record than them. And this has nothing to do with the top-10 protected pick we'll eventually inherit. If I understand the order of things (Chicago first) it could be in the next millennium…
I believe that the Lakers' pick is top-three protected in 2017 as well and doesn't become unprotected until 2018.
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
Yep. Lakers pick isn't unprotected until 2018. Miami pick is unprotected in 2017. Sacramento pick is unprotected in 2020.
Above scenarios all apply only if picks not conveyed before then.
Above scenarios all apply only if picks not conveyed before then.
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
DavidHume wrote:hookshot199 wrote:I believe that the Lakers' pick is top-three protected in 2017 as well and doesn't become unprotected until 2018.
Okay. Thanks. So the Lakers have done enough - by adding Hibbert, Bass and Lou Williams - to be somewhere between 5 and 10. I can't see them possibly being a playoff contender, having five guards, four of whom are known gunners. Will Russell ever get to touch the ball. So we'll probably get their pick, 5-10: top three protected.
And Sacramento, though having improved themselves, have done so only marginally. So the question is: Can they win 30 games in the West? If they can (30 games is probably an 8 pick), they may keep their pick. I still believe we're going to win 30 games, perhaps 32, and that's assuming Embiid doesn't play. We play all 48 minutes. And we've got one big (Noel) who's establish himself as a star defender, and we've added the second best player (a center: Okafor) in the draft. We've also added a shooter. More than that, he's a smart player, on a par with Covington, just several inches shorter. And we might be adding a scorer in McRae.
So, 32 games I think is possible. A better record than the Kings? Not sure. But their additions aren't impressive. They won't make the playoffs in the West. That's for sure.
As always, just my opinion.
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
Kinda OT:
Someone started a thread on the Lakers forum discussing tanking and it got locked bc everyone was freaking out about how they're not the Sixers and don't do that. I tried to tell them to embrace it as once they acquire some draft picks/sense of direction its not that bad but the thread closed as soon as I got my comment in.
Just thought it was funny how offended and shocked they were that their great teams best course of action right now may be what our disgraceful, laughing stock team has done.
Someone started a thread on the Lakers forum discussing tanking and it got locked bc everyone was freaking out about how they're not the Sixers and don't do that. I tried to tell them to embrace it as once they acquire some draft picks/sense of direction its not that bad but the thread closed as soon as I got my comment in.
Just thought it was funny how offended and shocked they were that their great teams best course of action right now may be what our disgraceful, laughing stock team has done.
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
jbent87 wrote:Kinda OT:
Someone started a thread on the Lakers forum discussing tanking and it got locked bc everyone was freaking out about how they're not the Sixers and don't do that. I tried to tell them to embrace it as once they acquire some draft picks/sense of direction its not that bad but the thread closed as soon as I got my comment in.
Just thought it was funny how offended and shocked they were that their great teams best course of action right now may be what our disgraceful, laughing stock team has done.
The problem is that they can't tank because, even if they did (and look what happened to the Knicks), there's a fairly good chance we would get their pick. And concerning their forum, one of the moderators - who uses the name Slava (40,000 posts) - wrote immediately after the Lou-Will signing that he probably won't sign up for League Pass this year, so disgusted is he with management.
I have a feeling that the real basketball fans - and not the blind Laker fanatics - are mortified by what Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak have done. Even if Hibbert returns halfway to his previous form, they've created an impossible situation in the backcourt. There just aren't enough basketballs to go around. They've got a plodding front court and a backcourt full of gunners.
I don't see how it works. Perhaps in the East they could win 40 games and even win an eighth seed. But in the West: San Antonio, Golden State and OKC are locks for playoff spots short of injuries. Ditto Houston, Memphis and Dallas. The Pelicans and Utah are both young and rising. The Suns and Clippers look to have more talent. Despite the loss of DJ, the Clippers still have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. The Lakers don't have anyone that good.
So probably, they'll be competing for the 11th spot with Sacramento and Minnesota with Portland and the Nuggets competing for the most ping pong balls.
Short of the Lakers pulling a 'Cleveland' in the lottery, I see our pick around 7 or 8. And max wins: 35 games. Minimum wins: 25 games.
Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
I didn't want to post this on the Lakers section, but I really think they're stuck between a rock and a hard place now that they've struck out on all the big FA targets. Really, I'm not sure what their best course of action actually is.
Normally I'd say just go full tank, but no matter how bad they are there's still a significant chance they don't even have their own 1st round pick: going 21-59 again sucks infinitely more when you won't have reinforcements coming via the draft.
On the other hand, I don't understand the point of bringing in guys like Williams, Bass, letting Davis walk, etc. If you're going to suck, I think you're better off doing what Hinkie's done: cycle through young players/D-League guys and hope you uncover a gem or two (someone like Covington). The guys they've brought in are known quantities who don't move the needle: what's the point? All you're doing is tying up cap space that could be used for a salary dump/creating positional redundancy that makes it harder to develop D'Angelo Russell.
If any Lakers fans are reading: thoughts? Not being a dick, but I don't envy your current situation at all.
Normally I'd say just go full tank, but no matter how bad they are there's still a significant chance they don't even have their own 1st round pick: going 21-59 again sucks infinitely more when you won't have reinforcements coming via the draft.
On the other hand, I don't understand the point of bringing in guys like Williams, Bass, letting Davis walk, etc. If you're going to suck, I think you're better off doing what Hinkie's done: cycle through young players/D-League guys and hope you uncover a gem or two (someone like Covington). The guys they've brought in are known quantities who don't move the needle: what's the point? All you're doing is tying up cap space that could be used for a salary dump/creating positional redundancy that makes it harder to develop D'Angelo Russell.
If any Lakers fans are reading: thoughts? Not being a dick, but I don't envy your current situation at all.
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
The options are so many it makes my head spin. All I know is we have awhole lot of assets in the next 4 years and we have a lot too be excited and anxious for. If we hit on 3/4 of our draft picks, were going too rock the nba
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
Most fanbases are too shook to stomach the tank. It's tough to go through an intense rebuild, which is why it doesn't happen often in this league... just look at how many people on this board have had enough after 2 years. The Lakers are one of those legacy franchises that can't decide to do it - it'll have to happen because they have no other choice.
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Re: 2016, 2017 & 2018 drafts
Tony Franciosa wrote:Most fanbases are too shook to stomach the tank. It's tough to go through an intense rebuild, which is why it doesn't happen often in this league... just look at how many people on this board have had enough after 2 years. The Lakers are one of those legacy franchises that can't decide to do it - it'll have to happen because they have no other choice.
I disagree with part of your premise. Boston tanked in 2014. Granted it was a 'stealth' tank, but still a tank. New York tanked in 2015. Chicago had a slew of top-five picks around 2000. I'm not sure we called them tanks back then. Philly didn't tank in 2006-2007 when we were 5–18 before trading Iverson, then played .500 the rest of the season - playing Joe BLEEPING Smith - to keep us out of the Oden-Durant sweepstakes, instead landing Thad. We could have had Noah at nine I believe.
Hinkie made four decisions - apart from three times picking the best player available, whether injured our out of the country - that might qualify as tank moves. And only two of those I future qualify.
1 & 2) He unloaded Turner and Hawes so that we wouldn't win several meaningless games by two insignificant players. Because of that decision, we had a shot at Parker, Wiggins and Embiid.
3) He unloaded Thad when he decided that he'd have to pay more than $10 mil to keep him. He got a pick - which could be conveyed next June. It depends where Miami finishes. I don't see them finishing better than a seven. It's possible they'll miss the playoffs. You may recall in May, they suited seven players to face us in the last game of the season to 'tank' for their pick. We suited eight, I believe. But they kept Wade and Deng out of the lineup. Bosh was injured.
I don't consider unloading Thad a conscious decision to tank. We were going to lose him and get nothing.
4) When both Carter Williams and Wroten were down around the trade break (or perhaps just Wroten) he didn't go out and bring in a replacement. He played with a pair of rental players.
In the end, I think Hinkie gets a bad wrap. Yep, he tanked in 2013-2014, rather brazenly when he unloaded Hawes and Turner. But other than that, I think he just plays the odds and waits for opportunities. And isn't averse to playing the long game with a guy like Embiid.