Nerlens Noel's development in second season

Ericb5 · Post #1 » by **Ericb5** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 2:51 pm

We had a thread last year specifically about Nerlens Noel and his rookie year. I figured that we should start a new one for the new season.

I always had high hopes for Nerlens, but he exceeded my expectations in the second half of his rookie year, where he not only didn't hit the rookie wall, but actually got better week to week until the end.

This year he will be playing the 4 full time and already it seems like he is learning from his defensive mistakes that he made in the beginning of last year, where he was running under the basket and losing his man. We know he can be an all league defender at the center position, but his long term position if he is to stay in Philly is at the 4, so how he makes that adjustment is more important now than him just proving that he is an NBA player.

I specifically was watching him last night with how he defended away from the basket and I see real improvement. Mentally, I think he gets it now. He understands what he is supposed to do.

Offensively, he continues to grow, and if he continues to improve week by week this year in the same way as he did last year, then I think his ceiling may be higher than I realized. I don't think that he should ever put his back to the basket, and put the ball on the floor. That is Okafor's game, and not his. He is a hustle player for dinks and dunks around the rim, as well as a face up shooter and slasher. He should stick to those things, and not try to post people until he gains 20 more pounds. His post game can wait to be worked on in future off seasons.

I think that Okafor's presence will be great for Noel both offensively and defensively. Offensively, Okafor inhabits the low block which is where Noel needs to stay away from. Okafor is going to get a ton of attention and that will create slashing, and offensive rebounding opportunities for Noel. Noel needs to play offensively off of Okafor. Every half court possession should touch Okafor's hands at least once, and Noel will be opportunistic.

Defensively, Okafor will be under the basket banging with the centers, which obviously frees up Noel to not cheat back under the basket. When Okafor ties up his man though, Noel can swoop in for the help side blocks. I think that how and when Noel helps defensively will have to be figured out over the course of the year, but it is a healthy situation to be in. Noel is the kind of athlete that can actually keep track of his man and double the post at the same time, and he is going to be an even bigger nightmare when they get this figured out.

There's a little of Iverson's competitiveness and warrior mentality in him that I love too.

bedjawII · Post #2 » by **bedjawII** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 3:22 pm

I believe his long term position, whether in Philly or somewhere else, is a 4. That is where he can be most disruptive on D. I am most impressed with what appears to be a great work ethic and desire to be great. When all is said and done that alone will determine how good he is and hopefully that sets the example for Jah.

Unbreakable99 · Post #3 » by **Unbreakable99** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 3:52 pm

I hope peole don't make rash decisions about Noel this year. I expect his blocks and steals to go down because he won't be playing under the basket and he will be guarding players who can handle the ball better. If his blocks and steals go down it doesn't mean he's regressing. It could just mean he has fewer opportunities to make the same impact being further away from the basket. Noel will still get his fair share of minutes playing Center when Okafor is off the court. Noel will struggle guarding stretch 4s so he might look a little out of place. I think he might be more efficient on the offensive end though.

Lou_23 · Post #4 » by **Lou_23** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 4:24 pm

Unbreakable99 wrote: I expect his blocks and steals to go down because he won't be playing under the basket

Not his steals , it is not a problem if he is playing more in the perimeter. He also can get a lot this year

Thad Young was a PF, and he was fantastic in steals

Ericb5 · Post #5 » by **Ericb5** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 5:23 pm

Unbreakable99 wrote:I hope peole don't make rash decisions about Noel this year. I expect his blocks and steals to go down because he won't be playing under the basket and he will be guarding players who can handle the ball better. If his blocks and steals go down it doesn't mean he's regressing. It could just mean he has fewer opportunities to make the same impact being further away from the basket. Noel will still get his fair share of minutes playing Center when Okafor is off the court. Noel will struggle guarding stretch 4s so he might look a little out of place. I think he might be more efficient on the offensive end though.

I don't think his difficulties guarding stretch 4's is anything other than him remembering to stay on them instead of slinking back under the basket. When he collapses appropriately to help defend the rim it is going to be so disruptive to the other team that the only real way to mitigate him would be do have a good stretch 4 that can pull him farther away form the rim.

Many teams won't have the personnel to do that, but for those that do, it will largely be a mental thing for Noel.

Also, his individual stats aren't going to be the measure of his effectiveness on the defensive end so much as the team defensive stats when he is on the floor. He is such an impactful defensive player that he can individually make a big difference in the team's ability to defend.

Sixer fans that watch all of the games will know how he is playing regardless of his stats, and the national recognition will come in time, even though it will probably lag.

Mik317 · Post #6 » by **Mik317** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 5:25 pm

I also don't know if his blocks go down. There has been multiple moments where Jah's man goes at him only for Noel to swoop in and block his shot. Jah's poor stamina also probably means Noel will still get minutes at the 5 too.

I want to see Noel face up and take bigs off the bounce a lot more...now that his FTs are at the very least mediocre, he can wreck havoc that way (just no more spills like last night pls...my soul left my body)

Dirkbaka · Post #7 » by **Dirkbaka** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 6:50 pm

Do you guys think there will ever be a time where one of Jah or Noel is the backup 5?

I am asking for fantasy basketball purposes mostly. Thanks.

Kobblehead · Post #8 » by **Kobblehead** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 7:08 pm

If anything, Noel's shotblocking has a chance to soar up. He now gets to be a roaming weakside shotblocker.

ExplosionsInDaSky · Post #9 » by **ExplosionsInDaSky** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 7:31 pm

He looked really good last night both physically and mentally. Of course it's preseason, but it's nice to know that he does know where to be on the floor most of the time. I absolutely love this kid, he's my favorite Sixer at the moment.

Post #10 » by **CoreyGallagher** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 8:00 pm

Dirkbaka wrote:Do you guys think there will ever be a time where one of Jah or Noel is the backup 5?

I am asking for fantasy basketball purposes mostly. Thanks.

Not this season, in the future there's a possibility with Embiid hopefully recovering, but that's a considerable ways off.

MRxBLACK · Post #11 » by **MRxBLACK** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 8:01 pm

Love the way he swipes the ball off people, even point guards. Got Wall and Dellavedova so far in the preseason. Gabled once against a Cleveland big and got beaten last night for a bucket though.

Look at this defensive possession in the 2nd video: http://on.nba.com/1NvFKB9

Ericb5 · Post #12 » by **Ericb5** » Fri Oct 9, 2015 8:21 pm

MRxBLACK wrote:Love the way he swipes the ball off people, even point guards. Got Wall and Dellavedova so far in the preseason. Gabled once against a Cleveland big and got beaten last night for a bucket though.

Look at this defensive possession in the 2nd video: http://on.nba.com/1NvFKB9

His ability to do that to guards is basically unprecedented for someone his size. Generally its a prescription for ticky tack fouls for big men, and they are coached not to do it, but Noel is so good at it that it is a weapon.

76ciology · Post #13 » by **76ciology** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:18 am

I do think it's just impressive going from what most "experts" projects as a guy who is a negative on offense into a guy with a developing jumper, mid range and even shown potential as a scorer off the dribble.

Defensively, he doesn't just have freakish tools but also great defensive IQ.

And I stand with my position since day 1 that I think Noel is a better player than Wiggins.

F-Stop · Post #14 » by **F-Stop** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:24 am

as others said I am not looking for a huge statistical jump. I am looking for consistentcy in the skill-set he currently has, elbow jumper and smart passing .

83SixersRocked · Post #15 » by **83SixersRocked** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:05 pm

In what little I've seen of him he seems to be playing with a lot of confidence. He's one guy I don't think we have to worry about.

BNelley24 · Post #16 » by **BNelley24** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 5:13 pm

Noel is my favorite athlete in Philadelphia right now, hard worker, shows improvement, actually cares about the team, wants to win.... Love the kid.

ET Da Gawd · Post #17 » by **ET Da Gawd** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:58 pm

He's the heart of this team, as he gets stronger his game will only evolve more (and the jumper improving)...his rip and go drives from the free throw line area need to be his bread and butter

Ericb5 · Post #18 » by **Ericb5** » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:12 am

76ciology wrote:I do think it's just impressive going from what most "experts" projects as a guy who is a negative on offense into a guy with a developing jumper, mid range and even shown potential as a scorer off the dribble.

Defensively, he doesn't just have freakish tools but also great defensive IQ.

And I stand with my position since day 1 that I think Noel is a better player than Wiggins.

I don't agree with you about him being better than Wiggins, but obviously I would love to be wrong about that someday.

Defensively, he is already a stud, and he needs only experience and strength to turn into an all league defender, and maybe a DPOY someday.

Offensively, his face up slashing game is already a real weapon, and every little bit that his jumper improves, his offensive game will improve.

I love his heart too.

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Agnostifarian · Post #19 » by **Agnostifarian** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:23 am

He's gotten much stronger and a lot more confident. It's just starting. He won't peak for at least five years. Noel is our franchise player until someone takes it away.

Post #20 » by **tk76** » Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:52 am

I think Noel is ready to make a huge leap to being a borderline All-Star this year on both ends. But I think we won't see it yet, because of poor PG play and poor spacing while Okafor and Noel are both on the floor... and Nerlens having to adapt to guarding stretch 4's on a team that will likely have lousy rotations due to team inexperience.

If at some point they have stretches where Nerlens is working with a PG with P&R and penetration skills (similar or better than Ish) then we will see Nerlens at his best. But as it stands, we might have to wait another year before the monster is fully unleashed.