Ranking top prospects in 2017 draft by DPS

[kriss73]

This nice column by Hofmann, gave me the idea to use the same concept for the top prospects in the 2017 draft.

http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-the-sixers-roster-according-to-teams-defense-pace-space-criteria/

The caveat here is that those guys are projects. So the evaluation as to be a mix between “currently” and “by potential”.

It’s a subjective ranking but I took a look to TS% and 3p% for space, DRtg, DBPM for defense.
For pace? I don’t know…maybe USG.

Here are some useful stats.


Of course these stats don’t tell the whole story: different level of competition, partial view etc.
The idea is to do a Sixers-centered Big Board.
The grades are the same:
1. Poor
2. Below Average
3. Average
4. Above Average
5. Elite

So: Defense + Pace + Space = TOTAL (MEAN)
Fultz: 1+4+5=10 (3.3)
Fox: 4+3+2=9 (3)
Tatum: 4+1+3= 8 (2.7)
Jackson: 5+3+3=11 (3.7)
Monk : 2+3+5=10 (3.3)
Isaac: 5+4+3= 12 (4)
Smith: 2+3+ 3= 8 (2.7)
Ball: 2+4+5=11(3.7)


So, the final BB is something like:
Tier 1. Isaac
Tier 2. Jackson, Ball
Tier 3. Fultz, Monk
Tier 4. Fox
Tier 5. Tatum, Smith

What are your grades based on this system?

[freshie2]

I think tatum is rate a little low...should be a 4 on space (based on 3pt percentage and FT percentage he should develop into a very credible spacer) and I don't see his pace as a 1...2 or 3 is probably more accurate. So he's a 10 or 11 and in discussion among the top 4.

Fultz - is his horrid defense an individual or team/culture trait? It is concerning but may need to dig into pre-college games to see if he actually defends.

Jackson, Tatum and Isaac are intriguing on defense...who can space the floor better may be the question that determines the actual selection.

[Negrodamus]

What is "pace" and why is Tatum a 1 at it?

[Skates]

What is "pace" and why is Tatum a 1 at it?

I'm guessing this is because Tatum is known primarily as an ISO scorer in college, rather than a guy who scores in the flow of a motion offense. Hard to tell sometimes how much of that is player versus system. Okafor is a very low pace guy as an ISO scorer and only occasionally translates into a quick decision pace guy.

[kriss73]

What is "pace" and why is Tatum a 1 at it?

I'm guessing this is because Tatum is known primarily as an ISO scorer in college, rather than a guy who scores in the flow of a motion offense. Hard to tell sometimes how much of that is player versus system. Okafor is a very low pace guy as an ISO scorer and only occasionally translates into a quick decision pace guy.

Yeah this.
But it's a personal evaluation. Feel free to post yours

[sixers hoops]

This nice column by Hofmann, gave me the idea to use the same concept for the top prospects in the 2017 draft.

http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-the-sixers-roster-according-to-teams-defense-pace-space-criteria/

The caveat here is that those guys are projects. So the evaluation as to be a mix between “currently” and “by potential”.

It’s a subjective ranking but I took a look to TS% and 3p% for space, DRtg, DBPM for defense.
For pace? I don’t know…maybe USG.

Here are some useful stats.


Of course these stats don’t tell the whole story: different level of competition, partial view etc.
The idea is to do a Sixers-centered Big Board.
The grades are the same:
1. Poor
2. Below Average
3. Average
4. Above Average
5. Elite

So: Defense + Pace + Space = TOTAL (MEAN)
Fultz: 1+4+5=10 (3.3)
Fox: 4+3+2=9 (3)
Tatum: 4+1+3= 8 (2.7)
Jackson: 5+3+3=11 (3.7)
Monk : 2+3+5=10 (3.3)
Isaac: 5+4+3= 12 (4)
Smith: 2+3+ 3= 8 (2.7)
Ball: 2+4+5=11(3.7)


So, the final BB is something like:
Tier 1. Isaac
Tier 2. Jackson, Ball
Tier 3. Fultz, Monk
Tier 4. Fox
Tier 5. Tatum, Smith

What are your grades based on this system?

I love this concept, but don't watch much college ball to do my own rankings.

Is Ball getting a 5 in space mean you project him to be a great outside shooter in the NBA?

[Negrodamus]

What is "pace" and why is Tatum a 1 at it?

I'm guessing this is because Tatum is known primarily as an ISO scorer in college, rather than a guy who scores in the flow of a motion offense. Hard to tell sometimes how much of that is player versus system. Okafor is a very low pace guy as an ISO scorer and only occasionally translates into a quick decision pace guy.

Clearly assists per game affects "pace". Otherwise Smith and Fultz would be 1s also.

If anything Tatum was better than any of these players in the flow of the offense because he'd rarely force offense. I think the ISO narrative has been overstated on Tatum.

[TTP]

Ball as a 5 in space seems far too high. He was a 29% 3 point shooter pre-college and shot 67.3% from the FT line in college. His 41.2% from 3 in college is almost certainly not real. He also has no mid-range game right?

His strength has gotta be pace - it seems likely that he's going to feast in transition and struggle in the half court.

[Negrodamus]

Ball as a 5 in space seems far too high. He was a 29% 3 point shooter pre-college and shot 67.3% from the FT line in college. His 41.2% from 3 in college is almost certainly not real. He also has no mid-range game right?

His strength has gotta be pace - it seems likely that he's going to feast in transition and struggle in the half court.

This. He's great at keeping the ball moving and playing within the flow of the offense.

I don't think his shooting is real at the next level, though.

I do think he'd benefit on a team like ours where he can take open shots after the defense collapses on Simmons/Embiid. And I'd love to take him as a mid first rounder because of his glaring flaws, but that's not where he's projected.

[kriss73]

Yeah. My 5 in space for Ball is maybe to much.
But potentially?
On the other end, the 1 in defense for Fultz is accurate today but potentially he could improve in that department.

[eagereyez]

There's just no way Tatum and Jackson are equal as spacers. Tatum blows Jackson away at the line (85% vs 56%), and their 3P%'s are well within statistical variance. If Tatum made 6 more of his 3s then he's shooting 39% from 3 instead of 34%.

[HotelVitale]

Ball as a 5 in space seems far too high. He was a 29% 3 point shooter pre-college and shot 67.3% from the FT line in college. His 41.2% from 3 in college is almost certainly not real.

Not doubting you but where'd those figures come from? According to this he shot 44%+ on 3s his fresh/senior years in HS on pretty massive volume, couldn't find a complete HS log:
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/lonzo-ball/Xoz-LfTvEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm

I also didn't want to believe Ball's 3pt shooting (shot looked too weird) but he made big shot after big shot all year long. He was money on stepbacks and spot-ups, and he managed his 40%+ despite taking long and difficult shots. He also shot about twice as many 3s as FTs--so it seems odd to conclude that the FT% is real while the 3pt% isn't.

[TTP]

Ball as a 5 in space seems far too high. He was a 29% 3 point shooter pre-college and shot 67.3% from the FT line in college. His 41.2% from 3 in college is almost certainly not real.

Not doubting you but where'd those figures come from? According to this he shot 44%+ on 3s his fresh/senior years in HS on pretty massive volume, couldn't find a complete HS log:
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/lonzo-ball/Xoz-LfTvEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm

I also didn't want to believe Ball's 3pt shooting (shot looked too weird) but he made big shot after big shot all year long. He was money on stepbacks and spot-ups, and he managed his 40%+ despite taking long and difficult shots. He also shot about twice as many 3s as FTs--so it seems odd to conclude that the FT% is real while the 3pt% isn't.

DraftExpress listed it in their Lonzo Ball Weaknesses video. In general, I have a difficult time finding high school statistics as well.

[HotelVitale]

DraftExpress listed it in their Lonzo Ball Weaknesses video. In general, I have a difficult time finding high school statistics as well.

Ah, that's prob just from the handful of tournament games before the NCAA season (McDonald's AA games, Adidas Camp, etc). I don't know how many games that is, but it's not that many and the games are basically pick-up: roster changes every week, no set system, etc. Not saying it's meaningless, but it's a small and weird sample.

EDIT: just watched the vid and the 'pre-NCAA' percentage was on 90-some attempts, so it wasn't HS and was maybe 20 games of pick-up type ball. Also said that at UCLA he was 9th in the whole NCAA at ppp on pull-ups and, more importantly, in the 93rd percentile on catch-and-shoot, which bodes well for him splitting time with someone like Simmons. (For the record I'm not that hype on Ball. Just think the 3pt shooting is legit--maybe not elite but seems real.)

[76ciology]

Always been high on Isaac. He's a very good two way player who has the size to be special.

[Duke4life831]

What is "pace" and why is Tatum a 1 at it?

I'm guessing this is because Tatum is known primarily as an ISO scorer in college, rather than a guy who scores in the flow of a motion offense. Hard to tell sometimes how much of that is player versus system. Okafor is a very low pace guy as an ISO scorer and only occasionally translates into a quick decision pace guy.

Clearly assists per game affects "pace". Otherwise Smith and Fultz would be 1s also.

If anything Tatum was better than any of these players in the flow of the offense because he'd rarely force offense. I think the ISO narrative has been overstated on Tatum.

Ya I think because he is a very good ISO scorer and best in the draft that people automatically think that because of that he must only be an ISO scorer and therefore is a ball stopper and doesnt play within the offense. For those of you that didnt see much of Tatum or think he is a ball stopper. Here is a highlight from one of his games. You will see the ball doesnt stick too long, he constantly keeps it moving or makes a move and is able to have a great game even without taking too many dribbles in the half court.

Watch on YouTube

[Kolkmania]

I'm guessing this is because Tatum is known primarily as an ISO scorer in college, rather than a guy who scores in the flow of a motion offense. Hard to tell sometimes how much of that is player versus system. Okafor is a very low pace guy as an ISO scorer and only occasionally translates into a quick decision pace guy.

Clearly assists per game affects "pace". Otherwise Smith and Fultz would be 1s also.

If anything Tatum was better than any of these players in the flow of the offense because he'd rarely force offense. I think the ISO narrative has been overstated on Tatum.

Ya I think because he is a very good ISO scorer and best in the draft that people automatically think that because of that he must only be an ISO scorer and therefore is a ball stopper and doesnt play within the offense. For those of you that didnt see much of Tatum or think he is a ball stopper. Here is a highlight from one of his games. You will see the ball doesnt stick too long, he constantly keeps it moving or makes a move and is able to have a great game even without taking too many dribbles in the half court.

Watch on YouTube

I think I've seen like 20 full games of Duke this season. I don't understand the narrative that Tatum is a black hole and an inefficient midrange shooter. However, his ball does stick within his hands a bit too long at times imo, but it is really hard to judge if that is Tatum's fault or just a product of Duke's offense. I tend to think it's the latter option, since it takes ages for bigs to set a pick.

I've seen your opinion about Tatum change significantly throughout the season. From the best wing prospect to 3rd/4th begin Ingram, Parker and Winslow, to end on a positive note. Where are you at right now?

[Duke4life831]

Clearly assists per game affects "pace". Otherwise Smith and Fultz would be 1s also.

If anything Tatum was better than any of these players in the flow of the offense because he'd rarely force offense. I think the ISO narrative has been overstated on Tatum.

Ya I think because he is a very good ISO scorer and best in the draft that people automatically think that because of that he must only be an ISO scorer and therefore is a ball stopper and doesnt play within the offense. For those of you that didnt see much of Tatum or think he is a ball stopper. Here is a highlight from one of his games. You will see the ball doesnt stick too long, he constantly keeps it moving or makes a move and is able to have a great game even without taking too many dribbles in the half court.

Watch on YouTube

I think I've seen like 20 full games of Duke this season. I don't understand the narrative that Tatum is a black hole and an inefficient midrange shooter. However, his ball does stick within his hands a bit too long at times imo, but it is really hard to judge if that is Tatum's fault or just a product of Duke's offense. I tend to think it's the latter option, since it takes ages for bigs to set a pick.

I've seen your opinion about Tatum change significantly throughout the season. From the best wing prospect to 3rd/4th begin Ingram, Parker and Winslow, to end on a positive note. Where are you at right now?

Thats just Duke's offense as of the last two years. The offense hasnt been all that smooth since the 2015 season, K has kind of made a mess with the offense the past two years. I wouldnt consider him a ball stopper at all, hes just able to create his own offense when need be. His explosion and finishing around the rim though is a legit concern.

Haha ya definitely been very high and pretty low with him. Ive got him about even with Jackson as the best wing prospect, just depends on what the team needs more. For instance I think with Philly hes the better prospect than Jackson because I think his different ways of scoring would fit and be a nice help alongside Simmons and Embiid. I honestly think the top 4 guys are all neck and neck, I dont see Fultz as a consensus #1 like many others do.

When it comes to past Duke wings coming out, it depends on the day but if Im judging just off of a prospect while coming out of college, I gotta go 1. Jabari, 2. Justise, 3. Tatum and Ingram at 4.

[kriss73]

However this exercise wasn't focused to find out the best prospect "all around", but rather to find out how prospect is better suited to the Sixer basing on the traits that Brown highlighted during his exit interview: defense, pace and space.
Is Tatum at his best when he's playing at high pace?