How to Win in the NBA and the Sixers
Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2009 5:39 pm
As I posted elsewhere, I looked back at the last 25 years of NBA Finals. Seems like there are 3 ways in which teams get to the Finals.
There have been 50 teams in the Finals.
1. 70% of the time a team was led by a top 10 NBA superstar who was drafted by that team as a top 5 pick (usually top 3.)
All of those teams lost 55+ games to get that top draft pick. Sometimes it was a good team with a horribly down year due to a combination of tanking/injury. Sometimes it was a team that had been horrible for years and turned it around with the right pick.
-Sixers: Maybe a top 5 pick this year. More likely, with the right coach no top 10 picks in the next 4 years
The other 30% of the time teams got to the Finals with some combination of:
2: The team drafted a Euro or H.S. player before that became the norm. That pick outside of the top 5 turned out to be a Superstar that led them to a title (think Kobe and Dirk.)
---Sixers: Dileo is a maestro of the draft, but the odds of this happening to the Sixers are slim and none
3: The team recently made a huge trade where they gave up a combo of expiring deals, picks and unproven youth in exchange for a top 20 NBA player in their prime (think KG, Gasol and ShaqX2.)
---Sixers: You must have cap room, and expiring contracts to make that type of steal. They have the expiring contracts next year- but they will not make this type of deal because
it puts them over the tax with Brand and Iguodala's huge contracts.
I posted before about the Nuclear Option. Looking at the way teams make the Finals I'm having a hard time seeing how the Sixers can even start to head towards a title without getting rid of the 25-35M each year comitted to Brand and Iguodala. At very least find a way to clear away Brand's contract if you want to try and keep Iguodala.
There have been 50 teams in the Finals.
1. 70% of the time a team was led by a top 10 NBA superstar who was drafted by that team as a top 5 pick (usually top 3.)
All of those teams lost 55+ games to get that top draft pick. Sometimes it was a good team with a horribly down year due to a combination of tanking/injury. Sometimes it was a team that had been horrible for years and turned it around with the right pick.
-Sixers: Maybe a top 5 pick this year. More likely, with the right coach no top 10 picks in the next 4 years
The other 30% of the time teams got to the Finals with some combination of:
2: The team drafted a Euro or H.S. player before that became the norm. That pick outside of the top 5 turned out to be a Superstar that led them to a title (think Kobe and Dirk.)
---Sixers: Dileo is a maestro of the draft, but the odds of this happening to the Sixers are slim and none
3: The team recently made a huge trade where they gave up a combo of expiring deals, picks and unproven youth in exchange for a top 20 NBA player in their prime (think KG, Gasol and ShaqX2.)
---Sixers: You must have cap room, and expiring contracts to make that type of steal. They have the expiring contracts next year- but they will not make this type of deal because
it puts them over the tax with Brand and Iguodala's huge contracts.
I posted before about the Nuclear Option. Looking at the way teams make the Finals I'm having a hard time seeing how the Sixers can even start to head towards a title without getting rid of the 25-35M each year comitted to Brand and Iguodala. At very least find a way to clear away Brand's contract if you want to try and keep Iguodala.