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Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds)

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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#21 » by bwgood77 » Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:37 pm

Our odds of making the playoffs now just dropped 11%. Only 7 teams with worst odds. We've played I think the 8th easiest schedule...3rd easiest of western teams.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#22 » by JTrain » Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:01 am

We gone.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#23 » by JTrain » Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:37 am

7.7%.

Only chance we have is a significant injury to OKC, Houston, Dallas, Portland.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#24 » by Revived » Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:39 am

JTrain wrote:7.7%.

Only chance we have is a significant injury to OKC, Houston, Dallas, Portland.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... roken-Hand
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#25 » by Tahleron » Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:55 pm

JTrain wrote:7.7%.

Only chance we have is a significant injury to OKC, Houston, Dallas, Portland.


okc is probably ok as long as its not both of them, dallas as long as its not tyson, houston just went a month with one and portland, hmm, we'll see, they havent been injured for a year.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#26 » by Bogyo » Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:50 pm

SF88 wrote:
JTrain wrote:7.7%.

Only chance we have is a significant injury to OKC, Houston, Dallas, Portland.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... roken-Hand


Not enough. they still have Kaman, and Leonard, plus Thomas Robinson is not really playing, which might change if they go small with LMA at the 5 against smaller teams. But it 's gonna cost them some games, I read he fractured his hand 2 places, which sounds like a month and about 20 games to me. OKC will catch them by the time RoLo gets back. Here is hoping for a quick recovery - he became a good starting C, something not many of us believed in.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#27 » by carey » Sun Dec 21, 2014 3:35 pm

Portland just beat S.A. without RoLo then crushed the Pels the next night (lead was 30 at one point.) They are doing ok without him.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#28 » by Bogyo » Sun Dec 21, 2014 6:28 pm

Yeah, not surprised.
While RoLo is a good starting center this "only" means more playing time for Kaman who is not a lot worse, and their 2-3 backups (Freeland, Leonard and TRob) will do just fine in those minutes, depending on matchups, and daily form.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#29 » by JTrain » Sun Dec 28, 2014 10:48 pm

We're climbing, but it's a tough climb.

Assuming we can fend off the Pelicans (a big assumption), we are essentially battling OKC and SAS for the last spot. I don't like our chances if the race is tight going into the last 20 games.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#30 » by swe_suns » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:31 pm

JTrain wrote:We're climbing, but it's a tough climb.

Assuming we can fend off the Pelicans (a big assumption), we are essentially battling OKC and SAS for the last spot. I don't like our chances if the race is tight going into the last 20 games.


You should include the Mavericks as well.

Dallas: 21-10
Phoenix: 17-14

They're playing Okc tonight and we already secured the tie-breaker vs them.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#31 » by Bogyo » Thu Jan 1, 2015 10:08 am

So how frequently is this updated? I'd be keen to know how we stand, especially after these 2 losses... :(
Plus I'm getting worried about our Lakers pick... They sure look like a 4-5 worst team to me. After Philly, Minnesota, NY - it' LA, Det, Utah/Charlotte in some order. I think the young teams (Utah/Det) do have a real chance to improve a bit along the season. LA and Charlotte might start the tank in one way or another (resting Kobe a cpl more games than needed, not bringing BigAl back asap for example). Do not like our chances - especially with our "luck".
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#32 » by Sunlight » Fri Jan 2, 2015 1:54 am

Last 10 matches brutal maybe hardest of all, cant survive without upgrade team more tougher.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#33 » by bwgood77 » Mon Jan 5, 2015 6:52 am

My hope is that we catch SA and OKC and us makes the playoffs, and SA doesn't. But knowing the Spurs luck, they would probably get the 1st pick and get Okafor in their one down year like last time.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#34 » by Wannabe MEP » Tue Jan 6, 2015 12:18 am

Odds now up to 62.3% to make the playoffs.

According to Hollinger, we’re a lot better than our record says (5th in the West!?!) because…

1) Hollinger emphasizes recent performance, which is currently defined as the last 10 games. And we look really good over our last 10 games. (Arbitrary??)
2) We’ve been losing close games…so our point differential is better than our record.
3) We’ve played 4 more away games than home games.

We now project to end up 47–35 and finish 8th, but only 3 games behind 5th.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#35 » by bwgood77 » Tue Jan 6, 2015 4:27 am

Los Soles wrote:Odds now up to 62.3% to make the playoffs.

According to Hollinger, we’re a lot better than our record says (5th in the West!?!) because…

1) Hollinger emphasizes recent performance, which is currently defined as the last 10 games. And we look really good over our last 10 games. (Arbitrary??)
2) We’ve been losing close games…so our point differential is better than our record.
3) We’ve played 4 more away games than home games.

We now project to end up 47–35 and finish 8th, but only 3 games behind 5th.


Yeah, I noticed in Hollinger's rankings, we are 7th overall now in the nba. We will have to continue to play at a very high level when the competition gets much tougher though. We've had a fairly easy schedule, and I was looking at the Spurs schedule. Check out their schedule from Dec 15th to January 3rd..brutal with a lot of b2b and OT games....two triple OT games in a row...lost both. http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/ ... onio-spurs

Mon, Dec 15
@
Portland
L108-95

Wed, Dec 17
vs
Memphis
L117-116 OT

Fri, Dec 19
vs
Portland
L129-119 OT

Sat, Dec 20
@
Dallas
L99-93

Mon, Dec 22
vs
Los Angeles Clippers
W125-118

Thu, Dec 25
vs
Oklahoma City
L114-106

Fri, Dec 26
@
New Orleans
L97-90

Sun, Dec 28
vs
Houston
W110-106

Tue, Dec 30
@
Memphis
L95-87

Wed, Dec 31
vs
New Orleans
W95-93 OT

Sat, Jan 3
vs
Washington
W101-92
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#36 » by Revived » Tue Jan 6, 2015 7:52 am

Lost too many close games and too many games to mediocre or bad teams.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#37 » by Bogyo » Tue Jan 6, 2015 9:41 pm

Los Soles wrote:Odds now up to 62.3% to make the playoffs.

According to Hollinger, we’re a lot better than our record says (5th in the West!?!) because…

1) Hollinger emphasizes recent performance, which is currently defined as the last 10 games. And we look really good over our last 10 games. (Arbitrary??)
2) We’ve been losing close games…so our point differential is better than our record.
3) We’ve played 4 more away games than home games.

We now project to end up 47–35 and finish 8th, but only 3 games behind 5th.


Yeah, think it's a bit flawed becouse the first two points. Last 10 game performance doesn't really account the opponents strenght, and home/away games in that period. Point differential got him in trouble rightt around this time last yr, when he predicted that Wolves will make the playoffs, becouse their point differential is so much better than their record... 4 more away games is nothing major with an inconsistent team like us now, and we had a longer east trip, not a longer west trip...

But thanks for the update, I usually find Hollinger pretty informative - just a tiny bit overanalytic from time to time.
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#38 » by JTrain » Thu Jan 8, 2015 5:45 am

Thunder and Pels both lose and we (barely) win. That's huge. (Obviously it's still early and a ton can change.)
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Re: Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds) 

Post#40 » by JTrain » Thu Jan 8, 2015 7:06 pm

Re: Lakers' pick, here are the projected worst teams:

7. Charlotte 32-50
6. Miami 32-50
5. Lakers 31-51
4. Orlando 28-54
3. New York 18-64
2. Minnesota 15-67
1. Philly 14-68

Remember there is still a chance for us to get the pick if the Lakers get 5th worst, since a team behind them could get a ping pong ball and drop them to 6th.

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