Post#5 » by 8on » Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:31 am
hmmm.....i've been debating the bottom 4 of the playoff field for the last couple of days.
Houston is off to an uncharacteristic start, but check out Harden's shooting numbers. They're atrocious. when you take into account his high volume, it's even worse. he's leading the league in missed field goals. what's more outrageous; that the Wolves will have a better record than the Rockets, meaning that Rubio, Towns, Wiggins and LaVine stay healthy, or that Harden finds his stroke?
so i'm marking the Rockets in no lower than the 8th seed.
most room to fall: Mavericks. Deron is underrated, Wes is a real question mark because of the ACL, and Nowitzki because of his age. we may start to see him fade closer to 13 PPG by the end of the season. the roster is so thin that if any of those three were to miss two weeks, it could ruin their entire season. i like guys like Dwight Powell, but the rest of the roster is a big fat question mark. Parsons is hit or miss, Villanueva is hit, miss, or miss, Pachulia's not a great rim protector or interior defender. true fact: the Mavericks have the 2nd worst strength of schedule. it seems most likely that they have the most room to fall.
good chance to outperform: Blazers. They really haven't had enough time to mesh. It's a drastically different squad than last year. In particular, Aminu, Plumlee and Davis have been way better than I expected per minute. they've lived up to the roles they have. i had a feeling McCollum just needed the playing time; his offensive production has been very good. their frontcourt is the weakest part of the team, but they have some tradeable assets. i wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move by the deadline.
Wolves: i'll have to be convinced that Andrew Wiggins isn't going to disappear for solid chunks of games. is he a game closer? can Towns lower his foul rate? if not, i have hard time seeing them in the playoffs.
Nuggets: room to grow with Mudiay. Barton is starting to break through. Gallo is the unquestioned #1 option. not a playoff team, but might sneak up to 10th or 11th.
Pelicans: what happened? no Tyreke, i guess.
Grizzlies: to me, the simplest explanation is that Zach Randolph is showing his age. Gasol hasn't been the world beater he was last year, either. it's possible that the Grizzlies' formula, which they've used since 2009, is running out of juice. not everybody can be the Spurs. that said, if i had to guess they'll finish somewhere between 8th and 10th.
top 4 in the West is set.
my guess at the bottom 4 playoff teams, no particular order: Suns, Jazz, Rockets, Mavericks