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Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and roster

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Post#41 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:48 am by call.me.dude

RoyalWun wrote:Main FA targets (in this order):

OJ Mayo ... another shooter. Only if we somehow also ended up with a great post scorer or slasher.
Andre Iguodala (if opts out ; doubt it) ... like you said, doubt it.
Tyreke Evans ... yes! It's worth a shot. Especially on a one year deal like Mayo.
Paul Millsap ... yes.
Monta Ellis (if opts out ; doubt it) ... like you said, doubt it.
JJ Hickson ... will probably get overpaid. Only on a short or cheap deal.
JJ Redick ... will probably get overpaid. Another shooter.
Jose Calderon ... won't be content with 10-15mpg behind Lillard. Can't defend the 2/at all.
Zaza Pachulia ... if everything else fails, okay. But not on a longterm deal.
DeJuan Blair ... only if he's cheap. Doesn't have a positive impact on the game.
Beno Udrih ... okay.
Chase Budinger ... okay.
Tiago Splitter ... Spurs will keep him, I'm sure of that.
Dorrell Wright ... another shooter.
Gary Neal ... really like this guy but: another shooter. If we can't get a good guard or SF, I'd be okay with it.
Beno Udrih ... again? ;)
Devin Harris ... okay on a cheap deal and if we can't get a good guard. Should be able to play with Lillard for a couple minutes. Does he defend these days?
Nick Young ... another shooter.
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Post#42 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:08 pm by Goldbum

OK so trade JJ at the deadline to pick up another mid 1st. Play the rookies more especially off the bench. Sign OJ Mayo
PG Lillard, Carter-Williams
SG Mayo, Mathews, Barton
SF Batum, (Mathews) Claver
PF LMA, Freeland, (Len)
C. Len, Leonard

+ 1 cheap free agent or 2 nd rnd pick. Would prefer we draft and stash a couple euros in rnd 2 and maybe keep Jeffries .
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Post#43 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:12 pm by Wizenheimer

call.me.dude wrote:You could just watch Millsap play and see he's so much better than Hickson, but in case that's too time-conserving here are some things to consider when comparing Hickson's and Millsap's stats or per36 stats.

Minutes:
Millsap has Jefferson (a bit worse than LMA), Favors (arguably better than Hickson, which pretty much says it all) and Kanter (better than Leonard, Freeland, Jeffries combined) to compete for minutes. Millsap would easily play 3-5mpg more than he is playing now on most teams, let alone on ours. There is a reason why Hickson plays only 28mpg on a team as bad and with as bad a frontcourt as ours ...

Rebounding:
Not to say (this contract year version of) Hickson isn't a better rebounder but again, Millsap plays next to Jefferson, Favors, Kanter. Those guys are great rebounders. Hickson plays most of his minutes next to LMA. Nuff said.

Scoring:
Utah is a very balanced scoring team. Millsap has proven that he is a very good scorer, capable of even 40 point games. Hickson scores mostly garbage points whereas you can throw the ball to Millsap and expect him to score. Millsap draws free throws pretty well, which at over 70% is pretty much a sign for a good scorer. He draws 6.0 FTAs per 36 to LMA’s 5.1 or JJ’s 3.8.

FG%:
Hickson is the only guy who is supposed to score in the paint and the only guy who goes after offensive rebounds on a team full of shooters. Utah though doesn't have a lot of shooters. They are 8th in points in the paint per game, we are 28th. Millsap along with Jefferson has to space the floor for their other players. He takes 5.0 (43% of his shots) from 10 feet out and further (3.9 shots from 15 feet out and further) whereas Hickson takes 1.9 (21% of his) shots from 10 feet out and further (1.2 from 15 feet out and further). So it’s no wonder his FG% is a lot worse, especially when he’s Utah’s 2nd option and thus has to deal with a lot more defensive attention. JJ is actually also shooting a worse percentage at the rim. Also, it’s only 22 games and Millsap has never shot as bad as this before. He usually is around at least 50%.

Defense:
I agree that they have about the same impact defensively, although Millsap gets you more blocks (wtf is up with that?) and a lot more steals (Hickson career per 36: 0.8spg, 0.9bpg. Millsap career per 36: 1.4spg, 1.3bpg). Millsap fouls a lot more though. But then again, he can afford to foul with Jefferson, Favors, Kanter behind him.

Passing/Ballhandling/BB IQ:
Millsap is an exceptional passer for a big man. Hickson is really bad as a passer and turns the ball over more than Millsap even though he’s not asked to be a scorer.

I'm sorry but Millsap is twice the player JJ is.


Millsap may be "twice" the player JJ Hickson is, whatever that means, but he is not twice as productive, and that's a fact

about some of your arguments:

* rebounding: if Millsap's rebounding numbers were actually depressed by being on such a strong rebounding team, then the Jazz must be about the best rebounding team in the NBA. They are certainly good at offensive rebounding as they are 2nd in the NBA in OffRebRate. But Millsap is only the 5th best offensive rebounder on the team. On the other hand, Utah is a pretty poor 27th in the league in DefRebRate. For reference, Portland is 14th. Overall, Utah is tied for 10th in total rebound rate. In other words, 1/3 of NBA teams are better. Meaning that Millsap is not really surrounded with an incredible group of rebounders. They are good, but not so good as to keep Millsap from reaching his potential. As a matter of fact, if Millsap had all this untapped potential as a rebounder, Utah would not be one of the worst teams in the league at defensive rebounding

* "Millsap is an exceptional passer" as a big man? I think that's a bit of hyperbole. He's averaging 2.6 assists a game. Aldridge is averaging 2.4. Of course, Aldridge plays 7-8 more minutes a game so there's a skew in those numbers. Millsap has committed more total turnovers then Aldridge in less time however. On a per48 basis, Millsap ranks around 12-16 among PF/C's depending on what standard you use for meeting qualifications. This also isn't a period in time where there are any historically good passing bigs. So, while Millsap may be a good passer. he's far from exceptional. Granted though that Hickson is below average

* Millsap's scoring. First of all, I used PER and TrueShooting%, not FG% as a basis for looking at efficiency. Those numbers for Millsap are down a little this year, and while it is his lowest TS%, by just a little, he's had 4 different seasons with a lower PER then this season. There is little basis for concluding he's just having an off year. Now, I'd consider the possibility there is a sample size skew in some of the metrics, but Utah has played 27% of an NBA season, so the sample size argument is growing weak

* by the way, I think it's funny you brought up the contract year doubts in relation to Hickson. Tell me, isn't Millsap in a contract year as well?

as far as all the other arguments about offensive production, what I said in my first post is what I'll repeat here:

* Millsap scores 2.7 more points per36 then Hickson but requires 2.4 more FG attempts and a 21% higher usage rate to score those extra points

* on the other hand, Hickson actually has better PER, TrueShooting%, and eFG% numbers.


and that leads into the point I was actually making in that post. It wasn't about whether or not Millsap is the better overall player. He is and I'll willingly concede that

it's that I don't think having Millsap on this year's team instead of Hickson would make Portland a significantly better team. Would their record be any better then 9-12. I say no. Maybe Portland would have won a close game they lost with Millsap's offense. Or maybe they would have lost a close game they won without Hickson's rebounding

the point being that Millsap would not really move the needle for the team. However, he would certainly be expensive. He's making 8.6 million this season, more then twice what Hickson is. I think it's certain that Millsap will want his next contract to start at somewhere in the 8-10 million range. I think Hickson's will be considerably less and that he may be also willing to settle for a shorter deal.

If not, my take is that Portland shouldn't sign either. They should preserve as much cap-space and financial flexibility as they can until an option better then Millsap comes along. Just plugging Millsap and a 7-11 pick into next year's version of this team probably wouldn't even get it out of the lottery. But it would be a lottery team with a total payroll well over the salary cap and approaching the tax threshold. That simply doesn't make sense
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Post#44 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:24 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

Millsap's not a player I would blow my load on. Neither is Hickson. If nothing else, don't spend big money only to play these guys out of position.

In an alternate universe, where Aldridge was truly a center and a better rebounder, sure I might be more tempted by a guy like Millsap, I think he is a good player and would move the needle on the right team, similar to Matthews. I do think in a situation where Millsap was your full time starting PF as a 4th or 5th offensive option, he would contribute significantly toward wins. He would be solid on both sides of the ball. He isn't a top 3 option on a very successful team, neither is Matthews, but he can occasionally have big nights to help carry you.


However, I am not a big believer in small ball as a game plan. If we got Millsap it would either go that way, or he would primarily end up on the bench as a 6th man.
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Post#45 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:28 pm by RoyalWun

I say draft the best rebounder possible in the 2nd round.
Portland:

D. Lillard | S. Blake
W. Matthews | W. Barton | C. McCollum | A. Crabbe
N. Batum | D. Wright | V. Claver
L. Aldridge | T. Robinson
R. Lopez | C. Kaman | J. Freeland | M. Leonard
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Post#46 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:33 pm by DusterBuster

It's amazing how much Al Jefferson gets ignored. The guy is a true C, he's been playing the position a majority of his career and is putting up more than 15 and 10 a game still. I still think he'd be a great pairing with Aldridge, so that the only FA I'm seriously interested in.
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Post#47 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:49 pm by Brandon-Clyde

DusterBuster wrote:It's amazing how much Al Jefferson gets ignored. The guy is a true C, he's been playing the position a majority of his career and is putting up more than 15 and 10 a game still. I still think he'd be a great pairing with Aldridge, so that the only FA I'm seriously interested in.

No shot blocking,no defense in general and a poor passer even for the center position. The only advantage he really brings is scoring in the low post. I would prefer to bring in Dalembert for probably half as much and use the rest of the capspace to sign another free agent who could help the team
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Post#48 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:14 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

Label me not a fan of Jefferson.


First, he would totally push Aldridge out to the perimeter, they only way for them to coexist is Aldridge increasing his 20 foot jump shots. Second, he wouldn't provide much more defense than Hickson. Third, he wouldn't pass any more or better than Hickson - we would still get wasted extra possessions where he earned us a rebound but completely ignored the open shooter.


If he came cheap, 5-7 million, such that as a talent upgrade you cannot ignore it, then maybe. Playing as a 6th man off the bench next to Leonard, ok I could maybe see that since he would change the game for us. But would I pay him significantly more than Hickson is getting - no not really. I wouldn't give him starter money.
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Post#49 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:03 am by Dame Lizard

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
Dame Lizard wrote: I know he isn't what we need, as in the scheme of things he's a similar project as what Meyers Leonard is to us



Besides "raw center" they have so little in common.

I wrote about this before, but Leonard is an athletic, mobile, help defender with developing jump shot.

Kanter is a big, plodding, rebound machine who operates best out of the post.



Yeah I should have clarified this more. I simply meant a developing centre who we can afford big minutes to, and hope he comes out good. And I definitely feel that whilst Leonard could be an exceptional starter, Kanter is the better prospect. His game is simple and he's very good at it.


I completely agree with the "draft the best rebounder we can in the 2nd round" notion.

I was hoping we'd grab Kyle O'Quinn last year in the 2nd round (with the Kansas PG pick we traded to Brooklyn). Now I'm not saying he was the best rebounder or anywhere close to that, but he was very good.
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Post#50 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:05 am by Dame Lizard

DusterBuster wrote:It's amazing how much Al Jefferson gets ignored. The guy is a true C, he's been playing the position a majority of his career and is putting up more than 15 and 10 a game still. I still think he'd be a great pairing with Aldridge, so that the only FA I'm seriously interested in.


I'm with you here Duster, I like Big Al. If we can get him on a good contract then I am all for it.
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Post#51 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:49 am by DaVoiceMaster

I was a big fan of Jefferson and thought the Blazers really blew it drafting Telfaire (Sorry TSE) over him. He had his day and all, but when I watched Oden destroy him a few years ago, I changed my tune. I am just not a fan anymore.
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Post#52 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:56 am by Wizenheimer

I'm not liking the idea of Al Jefferson that much

for one thing, I think he'll be pretty expensive. Another thing is that I do not believe he and Aldridge would be a good mesh, mainly because both players much prefer the left side of the floor for their offense. One would have to play on the side opposite of their 'comfort zone'. That's not good

another issue I'd have is Jefferson's efficiency and usage rates. Among C's, he has the 6th highest usage rate this year, but only the 32nd highest TS%. There are 68 C's & PF's with a higher TS% then Jefferson. And there are 167 players overall in the NBA with a higher TS%. Those numbers are ESPN's Hollinger stats that sets qualification as "on pace to play 500 minutes or more". He's 198th among all players. He's almost in the bottom half when it comes to TS%.

How much should the Blazers pay for that kind of efficiency? Especially considering that between them, Aldridge and Jefferson are accustomed to using around 50% of their team's possessions when they are on the floor. That wouldn't leave a lot of air for the other 3 players

Now, if Jefferson was willing to sign for 6-8 million a year for 3 years, AND defer to Aldridge quite a bit, then maybe he wouldn't be too bad an option. But does anybody think he'd be willing to do that?
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Post#53 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:43 pm by Soulyss

Not a fan of Jefferson, especially paired with Aldridge. You think our paint defense is bad now? Oh man...
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Post#54 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:26 pm by GreenRiddler

I honestly don't know who we will sign... there seems to be no one out there :-?
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Post#55 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:33 pm by GreenRiddler

I'd too rather have Millsap upgraded for Hickson instead of Big Al.
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Post#56 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:36 pm by GreenRiddler

or maybe Bynum for Hickson? The Sixers get a good big man for their playoff push and we get another rack at a starting Center, if he is not healthy we just let him walk.
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Post#57 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:50 am by RoyalWun

GreenRiddler wrote:or maybe Bynum for Hickson? The Sixers get a good big man for their playoff push and we get another rack at a starting Center, if he is not healthy we just let him walk.


So we are basically giving Hickson away then.

As soon as Bynum steps foot in Portland his knees will shatter.
Portland:

D. Lillard | S. Blake
W. Matthews | W. Barton | C. McCollum | A. Crabbe
N. Batum | D. Wright | V. Claver
L. Aldridge | T. Robinson
R. Lopez | C. Kaman | J. Freeland | M. Leonard
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Post#58 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:06 am by RoyalWun

Since Meyers is not ready we need a cheap productive vet at center who won't take away that many minutes from him.

Guys like Dalembert or Pachulia would be a nice fit for that role. And also need to draft the best possible rebounder in this draft. We need to package those seconds to move up if need be or we will just be adding more players who will probably rot on this team.

What I would love to see:

Aldridge / BEST REBOUNDER AVAIL / Freeland
Dalembert or Pachulia / Leonard

One thing I think we are missing as a whole is that one extremely athletic person. I think the closest we have is JJ.
Portland:

D. Lillard | S. Blake
W. Matthews | W. Barton | C. McCollum | A. Crabbe
N. Batum | D. Wright | V. Claver
L. Aldridge | T. Robinson
R. Lopez | C. Kaman | J. Freeland | M. Leonard
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Post#59 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:26 am by Milkdud

I'd like to see the Blazers add a vet shot blocker next season, even if that player is limited to that and rebounding.
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Post#60 Re: Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and rost
Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:26 am by youngthegiant

Would you guys do a Gallinari, Batum swap?
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