Are Blazers Shooting into the Lottery?

[Walton'sBeard!]

Why are you quoting me? Dtrain got in first, you should work out your defensiveness issues with him.

<insert lame emoticon here>

[Wizenheimer]

since I've yapped about it before, I'll simply say that I agree that the Blazers do miss Roy's ability to create open shot opportunities for his teammates

and while I really like Wes Matthews and what he brings to the Blazers, I think the last few games have definitely shown that the notion some here have advanced that Matthews has replaced what Roy brought to the game as being a rather ridiculous argument.

All that said, Roy's absence can only explain a portion of the Blazer shooting percentage collapse over the last 2.5 seasons.

The rest of it IS a result of trading away or letting go of several good shooters over that time period and having a player like Roy to create better shooting opportunities is NOT going to fully replace that lost production.

Steve Blake is tied for 2nd with Kiki Vandeweghe as the career 3pt% shooter in Blazer history. The leader is James Jones, but it's a little unfair to measure Blake's 230 games or Kiki's 340 games against Jones' 58 games. That's a big sample size variation, especially considering those 58 games for Jones represented by far his best season. (still, I was a vocal advocate of Portland keeping Jones and dumping Webster, but KP went the opposite direction...I'd sure rather have Jones on the roster now then either Babbit or Webster)

Anyway, the loss of Blake has hurt Blazer shooting, as has the loss of Jones, Outlaw, Webster, and Frye. Couple that with the collapse of Batum's shooting and Rudy's depressed percentages, and it's hard to see Wes Matthews making up for that, especially considering his inconsistency from the perimeter. And truly, the only player that you can definitely say would significantly benefit from Roy's return (or a player kind of like him) is Batum. Roy and Rudy didn't play extended minutes together that often, and Wesley is such a streaky shooter it's difficult to say if open looks would do him good. He is a great shooter from the left corner though and that's right in Roy's assist zone. But is it in Devin Harris'?

Anyhow, there's no way to get around the fact that if an NBA team is filled with streaky, inconsistent shooters that can't create their own shot, that team will have low shooting numbers.

[Butter]

Well, if missing Blake is a major contributor to the Blazers shooting woes, it seems like they need to find a replacement, and hopefully an upgrade, to what Blake offered. I am still interested in the idea of Kirk Hinrich if the Blazers can get him for a decent deal.

[Walton'sBeard!]

I'd argue that if Blake were still here his 3pt % would have taken a similar nosedive as we have seen with other current Blazers. And Outlaw would look about the same as he is looking for NJ this year.

Our previous offense was built around Roy drawing double and triple teams and then kicking out to an open shooter, to make defenses pick their poison. No healthy Roy means no open shooters.

[Butter]

I'd argue that if Blake were still here his 3pt % would have taken a similar nosedive as we have seen with other current Blazers. And Outlaw would look about the same as he is looking for NJ this year.

Our previous offense was built around Roy drawing double and triple teams and then kicking out to an open shooter, to make defenses pick their poison. No healthy Roy means no open shooters.

Brandon Roy is a franchise player, but he is not the only player who can create open shots. The Blazers were struggling last year with Roy on the team. Obviously, if Roy drives the lane and three defenders sag on him, someones going to be open. But of the games I've been watching lately, players are getting open, they are just not hitting open shots.

[Wizenheimer]

I'd argue that if Blake were still here his 3pt % would have taken a similar nosedive as we have seen with other current Blazers. And Outlaw would look about the same as he is looking for NJ this year.

disagree about Blake. It's true that his percentage would have likely dropped from his 43% in 08/09. But Blake played 70 games for the Blazers and Nate in 05/06 and shot .413 from the arc...and that was before Roy when the other Blazer 'shot creators' were Jarret Jack and Juan Dixon. That's not a duo that struck fear into opposing defenses.

Outlaw is doing exactly what he's always done: play lousy as a SF and decently as a PF. His eFG this season as a SF is .428. As a PF, it's .536

The Nets just have/had the bad judgment to sign him to play as SF, and by god, that's what they'll play him as, even though that should never be his role

Our previous offense was built around Roy drawing double and triple teams and then kicking out to an open shooter, to make defenses pick their poison. No healthy Roy means no open shooters.

actually, no healthy Roy means fewer open opportunities, especially from the corners. Those are the easiest 3's to make. But it's false to say Portland hasn't had open opportunities...they have and just haven't hit them.

Matthews shot 31% from 3 in October and November when Roy was around, but has shot 40% in December and January, and the quality of his 'looks' hasn't been significantly different.

Rudy has been all over the map. he shot 31% in Nov, 38% in Dec, and is so far shooting 27% in Jan. It's hard for me to attribute that kind of inconsistency to Roy's sporadic absence this year. That's especially true considering the drop in his percentage from last year to this year is less then the drop from 08/09 to last season.

Batum is the only player that I'd credit Roy's absence for definitely impacting, although I think it's also a question just how significant an impact it is. Batum has simply missed a ton of very open looks that he was making the previous 2 seasons. I think any assignment of reasons why he is shooting so poorly has to account for his shoulder problems as much as any other factor.

I don't know why it's so hard for people to credit that Blake, Jones, Outlaw, and Webster are/were simply a significantly better group of perimeter shooters then Matthews, Batum, Rudy, & Mills. And that's under just about any circumstances. Or that Frye is a better perimeter shooter then Dante. For that matter Juwan Howard was a better shooter then Dante

and moving in from the perimeter, that Oden was a better shooter then Camby.

Roy accounted for some of that, but frankly, I think it's way too much a stretch to assert that actual shooting ability doesn't reside in the shooter, but in the passer.

[Walton'sBeard!]

Yeah Wiz, I see your point. I mainly have a problem with the notion that if the Blazers of righr now had Steve Blake instead of Andre Miller that the shooting problems would vanish.

[d-train]

Healthy offense needs a good dose of easy shots. At the [Roy lead] Blazers peak they were good at generated easy shots but needed improvement at getting those shots closer to the basket. Generally, good shots are in the paint and behind the 3 pt line and the shots in the middle should be carefully chosen and as few as possible.

Now, the Blazers are getting shots but they are not getting much the defense isn't ok with giving up. It's hard to win games when all you get is what the opponent planned to give in their game plan.

The Blazers need to break defenses by forcing committed hard double teams or help defense that forces the defense to rotate. This is the starter ingredient for an offense to create good shots against NBA quality defenses. If the Blazers had this, more of their shots would be falling.

It's hard to judge the quality of the Blazers outside shooters when they are not getting a steady dose of good shots against broken defenses. I don't believe this group of players is deficient in shooting skill. Obviously, Miller is a weak shooter and Blake was a strong shooter, but the poor shooting is not because 1 weak shooter is on the court. The Blazers have always had at least 1 weak shooter on offense. At least Miller is a scoring threat.

One last point, the only way to solve the problem the Blazers have right now is with talent the Blazers don’t have and probably can’t get by trade. The coach can’t create easy shots from the sideline without having the talent.

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah Wiz, I see your point. I mainly have a problem with the notion that if the Blazers of righr now had Steve Blake instead of Andre Miller that the shooting problems would vanish.

don't get me wrong...I much prefer to have Miller playing 30 minutes then Blake. He does a better job of creating for teammates although I think Blake was underrated in that area.

I'm just saying that in a practical sense, Portland purged themselves of their best perimeter shooters and haven't really developed any alternatives. And we know that Nate's offense seems to rely on players being able to hit open jumpers.

One thing I haven't really mentioned is that as good as Camby is in a lot of areas, he's a pretty bad shooter for a big man. 42.7% FG shooting and he's taking 6 shots a game. Dante is just as weak although Dante is asked to shoot a lot of 18' jumpers. He's shooting 5 a game. Take those 11 shots a game, give a healthy Oden 6 or 7 of them plus 2-4 others, and the Blazers are probably in the top half of the league in team eFG% and TS% because of where Oden would be shooting and the FT's he'd be getting. That would be a huge difference for Portland's shooting picture without adding a perimeter shooter

[Agenda42]

actually, no healthy Roy means fewer open opportunities, especially from the corners. Those are the easiest 3's to make. But it's false to say Portland hasn't had open opportunities...they have and just haven't hit them.

Matthews shot 31% from 3 in October and November when Roy was around, but has shot 40% in December and January, and the quality of his 'looks' hasn't been significantly different.

Rudy has been all over the map. he shot 31% in Nov, 38% in Dec, and is so far shooting 27% in Jan. It's hard for me to attribute that kind of inconsistency to Roy's sporadic absence this year. That's especially true considering the drop in his percentage from last year to this year is less then the drop from 08/09 to last season.

Batum is the only player that I'd credit Roy's absence for definitely impacting, although I think it's also a question just how significant an impact it is. Batum has simply missed a ton of very open looks that he was making the previous 2 seasons. I think any assignment of reasons why he is shooting so poorly has to account for his shoulder problems as much as any other factor.

Roy was rarely Roy this season. This season, Roy used 3.5 assists per game and generated only 3.3; that net of -0.2 was a far cry from '09-10 Roy's net +2.5 assists, while his unassisted baskets total declined from 5.4 per game last season to 3.5 this season. Add those two numbers together, and even when Roy was playing, his teammates needed to generate 4.6 new shot attempts compared to playing alongside last season's Roy.

I don't know why it's so hard for people to credit that Blake, Jones, Outlaw, and Webster are/were simply a significantly better group of perimeter shooters then Matthews, Batum, Rudy, & Mills. And that's under just about any circumstances. Or that Frye is a better perimeter shooter then Dante. For that matter Juwan Howard was a better shooter then Dante

Certainly this is true. I don't want to understate the value of those guys; they are at the very least enormous upgrades over the current Blazer bench.

[Mr Odd]

The Blazers have never had easy shots.. . (never since the trader bob years)
imo

[whatchaknow]

I would say right now we are getting the easiest shots we have in years strictly due to what we get from LA. Whether in the post or off lobs, he has finally given us a PIP guy consistently. The difference is when he gets doubled we dont have a guy to create off the dribble to offset him. Its become so bad that Patty Mills might be our 2nd or 3rd best option with the ball in his hands

This team is a Chris Paul or a Derrick Rose or a Deron Williams away from being back in that top 4 of the West imo. A true franchise pg that this franchise has never had is truly our missing piece, since we now know or pretty much know Roy will never be the same. The sad thing is we arent bad enough to get that kind of player via the draft and our cap situation is also not the best lookin thing. I just am having trouble seeing where this team goes from here, its a pretty foggy future if you ask me

[blazers73]

Why are you quoting me? Dtrain got in first, you should work out your defensiveness issues with him.

LOL I haven’t heard the old” he did it first” excuse from an adult in a long long time. I chuckled at that one.

Seriously though. D train has a legit and civil argument. I can appreciate that. Your post was just plain hyperbolic and did not add to the debate. So that is why I quoted you. I've read plenty of your previous posts and have enjoyed most of them. You are very capable at adding to the debate. If you don't want people calling you out on hyperbolic posts, then the simple solution is to stop making them.

[Walton'sBeard!]

Please, we both know hyperbole had nothing to do with you quoting me. When are you going to change your username to IHateMiller73? 90% of your posts are based around attacking Miller. You just can't stand to be challenged on your extreme view of him.

[blazers73]

Please, we both know hyperbole had nothing to do with you quoting me. When are you going to change your username to IHateMiller73? 90% of your posts are based around attacking Miller. You just can't stand to be challenged on your extreme view of him

I would hardly call my view of Miller not fitting in on this team an extreme view. I've had plenty of great debates about Miller and have even conceeded a few points. If you would like to have a real debate on the matter and even possibly have the chance of me conceeding something about Miller, that is in fact what I was hoping for before you posted that comment.

My main argument is if we traded away Miller, our shooting would get better. Again I don't think this is extreme. First addition by subtraction because Miller himself isn't a good shooter. If we subtract Miller's poor shooting and add even a decent shooter, we would become a better shooting team. Second, a decent shooter would help open up the floor for everyone else. I would even go so far as to say Miller is the biggest part of our shooting woes although, again, there are many pieces to that puzzle and Roy' is the second biggest piece.

If you would like to continue to level attacks that have nothing to do with the debate, then we should probably stop here.

If you disagree with my argument, I would genuinly like to hear why.

[Walton'sBeard!]

If you disagree with my argument, I would genuinly like to hear why.

I haven't any attacks against fellow users by anyone, because that would be a violation of the terms of use.


My feelings about shooting as it relates to Miller vs Blake are pretty simple. Shooting the basketball does not begin and end at the three point line. This year Miller is shooting 46% overall, while Blake is shooting 37%. So I think we would be a worse shooting team with Blake instead of MIller.

[blazers73]

My feelings about shooting as it relates to Miller vs Blake are pretty simple. Shooting the basketball does not begin and end at the three point line. This year Miller is shooting 46% overall, while Blake is shooting 37%. So I think we would be a worse shooting team with Blake instead of MIller.

My argument isn't about Miller vs Blake. It is the Blazers would shoot better if they traded Miller because Miller isn't a good shooter. I do agree that 3 point shooting isn't the end all be all of shooting but it does play a role on an individual level. I also argue 3 point shooting does help to space the floor and make easier baskets for others on the team. My questions to you are:

Do you believe Miller is a good shooter on an individual level?

Do you think trading Miller for a standard PG who can shoot would help the blazers shooting, remain the same, or make it worse.

I argue Miller isn't a good shooter and that our shooting would improve if we traded him.

Edit If you would like to comkpare Miller vs Blake in regards to shooting and team shooting, I'd be just fine with that.