Predict Blazers 2013-2014 lineup and roster

[Wizenheimer]

by the way, I really think Pekovic is getting seriously overrated. I'd hate to see the Blazers make a big run at him, for several reasons

Defense namely?

Rubio is the only reason he had a break out season IMO. Granted, I've liked the guy as a cheap bench player from a while back when his value was pretty low, but I'm pretty sure I've also said I don't think he is a starter on a highly competitive team.

A great player to have as a back up though, he can change the pace of the game with his offensive rebounding.

no team will be able to steal Pekovic from Minny by offering a contract commensurate for a backup...while paying significantly more then that would be risky. And we know that big men very often get over-paid. Look at Hibbert...

as far as Pekovic's offensive rebounding...I'm not convinced. He did have a great year last season with a 15.8% ORR. But the year before and this season, his rates were nearly 50% less then last year's rate at around 10-11%

and overall, he's really not that strong of a rebounder. His career mark so far is 13.7%. That idn't much more impressive then Aldridge's 13.1% career number. With that body, Pekovic should be much stronger on the glass then he has been. He's also a poor shot-blocker and he has lots of trouble going very far from the basket to defend mobile bigs.

as I said, he'd likely be a bargain at 5-7 million, but a bad contract at 11-12 million

[Dame Lizard]

I don't think I like the idea of signing Pekovic as much as most other Portland fans do. I like him as a player, but don't think he'll be worth the money.

I'm a big fan of Enes Kanter- he is a machine. I know he isn't what we need, as in the scheme of things he's a similar project as what Meyers Leonard is to us, but I like him very much, especially considering that Utah are probably willing to trade a big (Millsap and Jefferson are probably their trade priorities however).

Hopefully Meyers can come through for us and be a capable starter by season's end. It'll be good having $13 million to fill out a bench (which is a fairly big kitty for the bench), rather than using that money for reinforcement at the center position.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I know he isn't what we need, as in the scheme of things he's a similar project as what Meyers Leonard is to us

Besides "raw center" they have so little in common.

I wrote about this before, but Leonard is an athletic, mobile, help defender with developing jump shot.

Kanter is a big, plodding, rebound machine who operates best out of the post.

[Milkdud]

Other then raw, Kanter/Meyers are polar opposites. Meyers strengths our his mobility, athleticism and down the line I think his shot (idealist forecasting). For Kanter his strength is his strength, rebounding and I think he can become a low post threat.


With Pek I like the idea of of the Blazers pursuing him much more then actually getting him. I don't think he is an ideal fit next to LA and for the money he will likely command I don't think its worth it.

Now if the Blazers pursue him, force Minny to match a contract that he can't live up to its all gravy.

But I'm petty that way.

[Cro_Ruption]

i like that team except id love pekovic, and mayo

Lillard-udrih
Mayo-Matthews
Batum-Barton-Claver
LA-Freeland
Pek-Meyers

[No-Man]

What I'd like

Lillard-Smart-Watson
Matthews-Barton-Oladipo
Batum-Budinger-Garcia
Aldridge-Hickson-Claver
Leonard-Speights-Freeland

Around 55-60m$

[RoyalWun]

What I would love:

D. Lillard / J. Calderon / [Energy Player]
W. Matthews / O. Mayo / W. Barton
N. Batum / A.Poythress/J.McAdoo/T.Mitchell/O.Porter / V. Claver
L. Aldridge / T. Mbakwe / [2nd Rounder]
M. Leonard / Z. Pachulia / J. Freeland

What probably will:

D. Lillard / B. Udrih / [2nd Rounder]
W. Matthews / A. Goodwin / W. Barton
N. Batum / V. Claver / [Vet]
L. Aldridge / D. Blair / [2nd Rounder]
M. Leonard / [Vet] / J. Freeland

[Case2012]

Dynasty^^^

[DusterBuster]

If the Blazers were to go out and sign Mayo, there's no way they can bring him off the bench. You have to start him and bring Wes in as the backup.

[DusterBuster]

i like that team except id love pekovic, and mayo

Lillard-udrih
Mayo-Matthews
Batum-Barton-Claver
LA-Freeland
Pek-Meyers

The Blazers unquestionably cannot afford both Pek and Mayo.

[mojomarc]

So are you Guyfawkes as well or does that troll account(as opposed to this troll account) belong to someone else?

He's not likely GuyFawkes11, the Minny troll we had previously. His IP addresses are issued by ISVs in Portland, while Fawkes got his from the Minneapolis area.

[mojomarc]

Rubio is the only reason he had a break out season IMO.

That may be so, but Lillard is making Leonard look better than he is right now as well. He could probably make Pek look pretty good on offense.

That said, I see no reason to overpay (more than $10m in his highest paid season would be overpaying by a good amount, but that's what I think the market will bear) for Pek.

[call.me.dude]

I don't want to predict the whole roster but here are some players I'd pursue.
IMO we need a guy who can get easy baskets (so either a slasher or very good post scorer), a rebounder and a legit backup PG for 10-15mpg behind Lillard or a secondary playmaker/combo guard next to Lillard. Defense at the 1-3 would also be nice.

1. Through the draft:
- Archie Goodwin: Slasher à la Evans and secondary playmaker.
- LeBryan Nash: Slasher who lives at the FT line. Huge mismatch at the 3 and great defensive potential.
- James McAdoo: Good potential as a post scorer and facing up. Good rebounder. Doesn’t need a lot of plays run for him.
- Mason Plumlee: Solid Center with good rebounding. Draws fouls and is athletic.
- Tony Mitchell: PF only version of JJ Hickson with better defense. Does he want to be a PF though?
- BJ Young: Dynamite scorer off the bench. A little small though and not a very good playmaker as of now and thus not an ideal fit. But he's a good slasher. Think Monta Ellis/Lou Williams.
- CJ McCollum: Dynamite scorer off the bench. A little small though and thus not an ideal fit. Think Jason Terry. Should be a solid backup for Lillard for 10+ mpg but would mostly play SG.
- Marcus Smart: Slashing and playmaking are a great fit next to our shooters as is his defense considering Lillard’s lackthereof as of now. Ability to play with Lillard has to be questioned though.

2. with capspace (6th man/starter):
- Tyreke Evans: That could be on a one year deal à la Mayo or relatively cheap multiyear deal. His slashing and playmaking is a great fit next to our shooters.
- Paul Millsap: Good rebounder next to LMA. Doesn’t need a lot of plays run for him.

3. with capspace (just off the top of my head, some solid backups and 3rd stringers):
- Ronnie Brewer
- Tony Allen (very unlikely though)
- Gary Neal (not a great fit though)
- PJ Tucker (if PHX let him go): Hard worker, scrappy defender, physical, good finisher and rebounder.
- Josh Childress
- Kyle Korver
- Chase Budinger
- Demarre Carroll
- Al-Farouq Aminu
- Jamaal Tinsley
- Beno Udrih
- Nate Robinson
- AJ Price
- Earl Watson
- CJ Watson
- Zaza Pachulia
- JJ Hickson
- Carl Landry

Obviously everything depends on who we draft. But still, my main two targets in FA would be Evans and Millsap. If we can’t get one of those two, it’s a lost FA class IMO. Mayo would be another great FA but he’s not a great fit, especially not for what he’s going to demand. If we can’t get Millsap/Evans we should sign mediocre players to one year deals so we still won’t be very good and maybe trade their expiring deals for 2014 picks afterwards. Or maybe spend as little as possible and get a good player via TPE.

So IMO, the different scenarios would/should be (in no order):

1. Draft Nash, 6th man/starter Millsap, backup PG Tinsley/CJ Watson/Udrih. Batum would slide to SG for a couple minutes. You have slashing, rebounding, scoring. Backup PG would have to be pretty solid and a playmaker.
2. Draft McAdoo/Plumlee/Mitchell, 6th man/starter Evans, third string PG AJ Price. You have rebounding, slashing and a guy who can play backup PG for 10mpg and create matchup problems. You still need that third string PG with solid playmaking though.
3. Draft Smart, 6th man/starter Millsap, backup SF Budinger/C. Brewer. Smart would backup 1/2. You have playmaking, slashing, rebounding, post scoring and defense at 1/2. The backup SF would not have to have a particular skill set although shooting would be nice.
4. Draft McCollum, 6th man/starter Millsap, backup SF R. Brewer/PJ Tucker/C. Brewer/D. Carroll. McCollum would backup 1/2. You have scoring, secondary playmaking, rebounding. Thus backup SF should be a slasher/defender like Brewer/Tucker.
5. Draft Young, 6th man/starter Millsap, backup SF PJ Tucker/D. Carroll/R. Brewer/C. Brewer/J. Howard, third string PG AJ Price. Young would backup 2/1. You have slashing, rebounding, scoring. SF should be a solid defender. Third string PG would have to be a solid playmaker or good defender.
6. Draft Goodwin, 6th man/starter Millsap, third string/backup PG, third string/backup SF. Goodwin would see minutes at 1-3 although mostly at 2. You have scoring, slashing, rebounding, secondary playmaking. PG should still be a solid playmaker. SF would ideally be a solid shooter.

+ a third string big man for all of these scenarios.

[tester551]

6. Draft Goodwin, 6th man/starter Millsap, third string/backup PG, third string/backup SF. Goodwin would see minutes at 1-3 although mostly at 2. You have scoring, slashing, rebounding, secondary playmaking. PG should still be a solid playmaker. SF would ideally be a solid shooter.

I am right there with you on this one. If Aldridge will finaly figure out that he is a better C than a PF - we can play Millsap & Aldridge at the same time.

[RoyalWun]

I see Houston being the top runner for Millsap.

They'll have more cap space than us and unless LMA is starting C, there's no way he'd be willing to come off the bench where in Houston he would be starting.

[Wizenheimer]

I see Houston being the top runner for Millsap.

They'll have more cap space than us and unless LMA is starting C, there's no way he'd be willing to come off the bench where in Houston he would be starting.

The Rockets will only have around 2 million more in space, maybe a little more, maybe not

in any event, Portland would have 10-13 million in space which would be more then enough to sign Millsap

but I'd wonder why Portland would bother? Whenever we start talking about a big (and it's a bit of a stretch calling Millsap a big) I like to plug the prospective big into JJ Hickson's role on the current Blazer team and consider if the new big would make the current team significantly bigger

here's a comparison for this season between Millsap and Hickson:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=millspa01&y1=2013&p2=hicksjj01&y2=2013

it's pretty interesting to look at the per36 numbers and advanced stats

* Millsap scores 2.7 more points per36 then Hickson but requires 2.4 more FG attempts and a 21% higher usage rate to score those extra points

* on the other hand, Hickson grabs 3.4 more rebounds per36 then Millsap.

* Millsap is better at getting assists and FT attempts, as well as steals

* on the other hand, Hickson actually has better PER, TrueShooting%, and eFG% numbers.

production-wise, they play different games but are about even when all things are considered. In other words, it's hard for me to see the way that Millsap would actually move the needle for Portland. And I'm really quite sure that Hickson would be significantly cheaper and probably willing to get a shorter contract as well

and that's kind of the standard I'd use if I was the Blazer GM: no long term deals unless the player can move the needle in a significant fashion. I don't think Milsap would qualify

[RoyalWun]

With our pick (which we should keep) I'd love to go after:

Archie Goodwin
James McAdoo
LeBryan Nash
Tony Mitchell
Marcus Smart
Trevor Mbakwe
CJ McCollum

Main FA targets (in this order):

OJ Mayo
Andre Iguodala (if opts out ; doubt it)
Tyreke Evans
Paul Millsap
Monta Ellis (if opts out ; doubt it)
JJ Hickson
JJ Redick
Jose Calderon
Zaza Pachulia
DeJuan Blair
Beno Udrih
Chase Budinger
Tiago Splitter
Dorrell Wright
Gary Neal
Beno Udrih
Devin Harris
Nick Young

[Milkdud]

While LA has the size of a center he isn't going to give the Blazers consistent protection of the rim or defensive glass. If your going to pair LA with Milsap you might as well just keep JJ at a smaller salary. Offensively Milsap can hurt you in more ways but was the cost of efficiency. Defensively they are pretty on par, neither blocks the rim both are good on the glass.

I have to say Evens is a interesting idea, its a complete crap shoot but he offers a style of play that the Blazers lack. You play him along with the Blazers shooters and provide a more structured environment then he has seen with the Kings you might have something.

[Norm2953]

Utah has an overload of players at PF/C and I'd like to see us make a run at
Al Jefferson or Millsap for an upgrade over Hickson for I continue to wonder
how much JJ would produce after he gets his contract. They are going to
have to let one or more of their players go to make room for Kanter and
Favors.

If we could net a young SF/SG out of the draft that would be ideal. The 2013
draft is going to be bad though and if we could work something out with
Charlotte that would net them our pick (top 8 protected) for future draft
considerations that might not be such a bad thing.

[call.me.dude]

You could just watch Millsap play and see he's so much better than Hickson, but in case that's too time-conserving here are some things to consider when comparing Hickson's and Millsap's stats or per36 stats.

Minutes:
Millsap has Jefferson (a bit worse than LMA), Favors (arguably better than Hickson, which pretty much says it all) and Kanter (better than Leonard, Freeland, Jeffries combined) to compete for minutes. Millsap would easily play 3-5mpg more than he is playing now on most teams, let alone on ours. There is a reason why Hickson plays only 28mpg on a team as bad and with as bad a frontcourt as ours ...

Rebounding:
Not to say (this contract year version of) Hickson isn't a better rebounder but again, Millsap plays next to Jefferson, Favors, Kanter. Those guys are great rebounders. Hickson plays most of his minutes next to LMA. Nuff said.

Scoring:
Utah is a very balanced scoring team. Millsap has proven that he is a very good scorer, capable of even 40 point games. Hickson scores mostly garbage points whereas you can throw the ball to Millsap and expect him to score. Millsap draws free throws pretty well, which at over 70% is pretty much a sign for a good scorer. He draws 6.0 FTAs per 36 to LMA’s 5.1 or JJ’s 3.8.

FG%:
Hickson is the only guy who is supposed to score in the paint and the only guy who goes after offensive rebounds on a team full of shooters. Utah though doesn't have a lot of shooters. They are 8th in points in the paint per game, we are 28th. Millsap along with Jefferson has to space the floor for their other players. He takes 5.0 (43% of his shots) from 10 feet out and further (3.9 shots from 15 feet out and further) whereas Hickson takes 1.9 (21% of his) shots from 10 feet out and further (1.2 from 15 feet out and further). So it’s no wonder his FG% is a lot worse, especially when he’s Utah’s 2nd option and thus has to deal with a lot more defensive attention. JJ is actually also shooting a worse percentage at the rim. Also, it’s only 22 games and Millsap has never shot as bad as this before. He usually is around at least 50%.

Defense:
I agree that they have about the same impact defensively, although Millsap gets you more blocks (wtf is up with that?) and a lot more steals (Hickson career per 36: 0.8spg, 0.9bpg. Millsap career per 36: 1.4spg, 1.3bpg). Millsap fouls a lot more though. But then again, he can afford to foul with Jefferson, Favors, Kanter behind him.

Passing/Ballhandling/BB IQ:
Millsap is an exceptional passer for a big man. Hickson is really bad as a passer and turns the ball over more than Millsap even though he’s not asked to be a scorer.

I'm sorry but Millsap is twice the player JJ is.