Off-season grades from neutral sources

[ebott]

I'm saying last year's healthy starting lineup was not that abnormal when you consider the players involved.

• Damian Lillard is an Iron man. Never missed an NBA game.
• Wesley Mathews is very similar. Didn't miss a game in his first two seasons. Had a couple bumps and bruises the last two seasons but yet another perfect season this year.
• Batum has had injuries his second and fourth years, but he has largely been a pretty healthy dude.
• LaMarcus actually had a bit of a down year last year. In his previous 7 seasons he's averaged 72 games a season. Also, by some miracle we didn't do that bad in the games when LaMarcus was out.
• Rolo's health was a bit of a surprise, especially given the amount of minutes he played. Last season he averaged nearly 32 minutes a game. The season before he averaged 26 and played all 82 games. Prior to that he was lucky to play over 60 games in a season and never averaged 20 minutes a game. Maybe he's turned a corner. Or maybe he's due for another year where he misses 20+ games. On the bright side we have Kaman if something happens to Rolo.

Matthews is the only one I'd have a lot of confidence in, healthwise. Only because he's proven it over 5 seasons

Lillard could be an iron man...knock on wood. What makes me hopeful is that in watching him for two seasons and seeing him hit the floor under the basket a bunch, I can't remember a single time when he's gotten up with a limp. Maybe he twinked his ankle once but i can't recall if that's true

Aldridge and Batum seem to get dinged every year. Batum always seems to have something going on with his hands/wrist/shoulder.

Rolo...I just don't know enough yet

of course, Russell Westbrook played in 441 consecutive games till Beverly clipped him. So even iron men go down sometimes.

Of all the starters, Blazers would be hurt most by losing Lillard for any length of time. Amazing how quickly he became the center of the team

I wonder if the new training staff deserves some props here. Or maybe N.O. deserves credit for putting together a team with health / injury history in mind. Maybe if Kevin Pritchard had thought a little more about the topic he'd still be our GM.

Either way I'm happy they were as healthy as they were last season and I'm excited to see if next season they'll have similar success or if last year was a fluke.

The thing about Lillard's success that I find a little bit terrifying is how much it reminds me of Brandon Roy's success. Four year college player, Rookie of the year, All-star in their second year. Let's hope he holds up long term.

As much as I don't think the Blazers did very well this off-season and for the foreseeable future I think our best case scenario is losing in the second round, if I allow my mind to extend beyond the foreseeable future I feel like the sky is the limit if LaMarcus and Damian stick around and are healthy long term.

I'm thinking we might have quite a few more years of success (defined as repeatedly losing in the second round of the playoffs) as a team if we're able to keep the starting lineup together.

that's the dilemma. Portland can't get better with their current starting unit unless they have a great bench. But with all the starting unit due new deals in the next two years, the Blazers may not be able to afford a great bench, and maybe not even a good one (although it could certainly be better then it has been).

I know it's radical and frowned upon, but i still question the wisdom of giving Aldridge a contract that pays nearly 22 million a year. other then the first 2 games in Houston, he just doesn't look like a player capable of leading a team to the promised land

Now you're just getting greedy. Do you wanna reboot the team with Damian and Batum in the hopes that we can somehow get a player better than LaMarcus to build around? Trade LaMarcus for a player on their rookie deal and an expiring contract?

I don't know about you, but I got real sick of being crappy hoping that this off-season we'd get lucky in the draft and/or free agency during the patternash era. I thought we were going right back to it when we lost Brandon Roy. Now we've lucked into Damian and we're able to be a playoff team again. I'd rather stick with what fate has bestowed upon us than throw it away and hope we can do better.

[ebott]

Your basic argument here is that the Blazers overachieved last season and as such last season's success level cannot be used as a benchmark for deciding whether or not we improved and as such had a successful off-season.

We became a good team last year. Prior to last season, we were not a good team. We improved because our best players got better and we added more key players. I expect more improvement from our players but I don't know if the improvement will result in more wins. Whether we win more games or fewer games isn't that meaningful. We are still going to be just good. The objective is to become a great team.

A successful off-season is one that upgrades us to greatness or keeps us on the path to greatness. This off-season keeps us on the right path. Obviously, it would be nice to make the jump to greatness but if that isn't an option, we want to make sure we improve our position to capitalize when there is an option.

I'm not so sure our players improvement won us many more games. The only player that seemed to be better than last season was Joel Freeland. Adding Rolo, Thomas Robinson and Mo Williams was what won us more games. I attribute any perceived improvements by our existing players to having those guys around, especially LaMarcus's improvements due to Rolo being around.

Maybe with Kamen and Blake in the backup lineup we might see similar improvements from players like Thomas Robinson and CJ. But I'm not very optimistic.

You think that adding Kamen and Blake moves us closer to being legitimate contenders?

It solidifies us as a good team and gives us more options to improve in the future but a couple of bench players don’t make a contender. We are in a better position to make the jump to a great team, which is a good move if there is no immediate option that makes us a great team.

I hope you're right. I feel like Kamen is a one year bandaid at backup center and Blake is a slightly cheaper option at backup point guard than Mo Williams. I feel like we did the bare minimum to look like we were trying to add useful players when really we're just waiting for next off-season hoping to hit a home run. I don't think we're gonna hit a home run. I think we're gonna strike out and maybe be able to resign our free agents.

I don't know how long Kamen and Blake are going to keep playing, but I don't expect it will be that long and we'll feel like we wasted this off-season.

[Wizenheimer]

that's the dilemma. Portland can't get better with their current starting unit unless they have a great bench. But with all the starting unit due new deals in the next two years, the Blazers may not be able to afford a great bench, and maybe not even a good one (although it could certainly be better then it has been).

I know it's radical and frowned upon, but i still question the wisdom of giving Aldridge a contract that pays nearly 22 million a year. other then the first 2 games in Houston, he just doesn't look like a player capable of leading a team to the promised land

Now you're just getting greedy. Do you wanna reboot the team with Damian and Batum in the hopes that we can somehow get a player better than LaMarcus to build around? Trade LaMarcus for a player on their rookie deal and an expiring contract?

I don't know about you, but I got real sick of being crappy hoping that this off-season we'd get lucky in the draft and/or free agency during the patternash era. I thought we were going right back to it when we lost Brandon Roy. Now we've lucked into Damian and we're able to be a playoff team again. I'd rather stick with what fate has bestowed upon us than throw it away and hope we can do better.

I've railed against a full rebuild as being dumb and still feel that way. The chances of success in a full rebuild are slim to none. So no, I'm not necessarily talking about a rebuild

at the same time, Aldridge on a contract that pays him almost 22 million a year makes me a bit queasy. He's not a good ball handler and he's not an effective go-to guy in the clutch, at least not in the way Stotts uses him. (last season, he had a .323 FG% and a .328 eFG% in clutch time)

obviously, there's little chance the Blazers could trade him for a player just as good. On the other hand, there might be a decent chance he could be traded for a pretty good player who would be paid half as much, leaving cap-room for another player or two. But of course, it's the quality players that lead the way and Aldridge is the highest quality player Portland has had in a long time who has no serious health concerns and seems happy to be a Blazer

all that is why I called it a dilemma. He's not a top-10 player but he's a year away from being paid like one. On one hand, Portland can't afford to let him get away; on the other hand, paying him franchise-player money could easily be settling for 2nd round exits, or worse

[Wizenheimer]

I feel like Kamen is a one year bandaid at backup center and Blake is a slightly cheaper option at backup point guard than Mo Williams. I feel like we did the bare minimum to look like we were trying to add useful players when really we're just waiting for next off-season hoping to hit a home run. I don't think we're gonna hit a home run. I think we're gonna strike out and maybe be able to resign our free agents.

I don't know how long Kamen and Blake are going to keep playing, but I don't expect it will be that long and we'll feel like we wasted this off-season.

yeah, everything seems to hinge on what happens next summer. What the roster will be and what kind of future roster flexibility it will leave

it's why I keep mentioning KP's 2009 cap-space plan. Everything from the 2007 draft forward was put on hold because of 2009 cap-space. And it sure seems for the most part that Olshey has put everything on hold because of a 2015 plan, even though we're not certain what it is

KP was pretty specific about his plan. The damn cake was gonna bake and 2009 would add the icing... . Unfortunately, the cake didn't rise because of the yeast in the knees of Miles, Roy, and Oden

Olshey has been beyond vague on what his plan is. He's used a metaphor though...."move the needle". Bake-a-cake...move-the-needle...wait-and-see

sometimes I wonder if Olshey's grand plan is simply trying to re-sign all the starters and hope the new TV deal will elevate the cap and tax threshold enough to be able to afford a bench. But that won't be until the 3rd season of Aldridge's new contract...when he's 32. Long time from now

[bob2]

I don't think there is a clear 2015 plan as many here suggest.

I think Olshey's idea is to keep flexibility and see what the best move in 2015 will be. Maybe it will be a FA signing, maybe a trade... I guess NO doesn't know yet how the "2015 plan" will look. It will dépend on the opportunities he has.

[Village Idiot]

CNNSI had their grades for the Northwest Division. We got a B-

Portland Trail Blazers

Best move: Signing Steve Blake to a two-year, $4.2 million deal.
Worst move: Signing Chris Kaman to a two-year, $9.8 million deal.

Analysis: The Spurs’ five-game sweep of Portland in the West semis obscured what was, relative to preseason expectations, an excellent season for the Blazers. Still, they went into the offseason needing to address a few key areas of need, among them adding a competent big man to back up Robin Lopez. Portland tabbed Chris Kaman after reports linked them to preferable options like Spencer Hawes and Channing Frye. Kaman has slipped quite a bit since earning an All-Star nod in 2010. While he put up solid numbers during his court time with the Lakers last season, Kaman didn’t mesh well with coach Mike D’Antoni, started only 13 games and, at one point, couldn’t even crack the rotation (he endured a spell of DNP-CDs). The Kaman signing was panned as a splurge – especially in light of Hawes signing a more cost-effective deal with the Clippers – but he could fill an important role for a bench unit that lacked scoring punch last season.

Portland’s decision to sign Steve Blake to a two-year deal worth $4.2 million received more favorable reviews. Blake averaged 6.9 points and 5.6 assists in 55 games last season with the Lakers and Warriors, who acquired him hoping for stable supporting point guard play behind Stephen Curry. Blake’s shooting and assist numbers dipped in Golden State and he was essentially a non-factor in the team’s playoff run. Yet if he can spend more time on the court than off it – Blake has played in only 153 games over the past three seasons – there’s cause for optimism heading into his third stint in the Pacific Northwest.

There was nothing to see on draft night, as Portland had traded away both of its picks and didn’t swing a deal to hop back into either round. Portland also didn’t come to terms with LaMarcus Aldridge on an extension, though that ostensibly has more to do with Aldridge prudently managing his finances than anything else.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Analysis: The Spurs’ five-game sweep of Portland in the West semis...

Can it really be called a "sweep" if the Blazers won a game? I know, the Spurs still kicked the Blazers butts, but it wasn't a sweep!!!

Was the Blake signing really seen as favorable? I think it was more "meh" than anything else.

[monopoman]

I feel like Kamen is a one year bandaid at backup center and Blake is a slightly cheaper option at backup point guard than Mo Williams. I feel like we did the bare minimum to look like we were trying to add useful players when really we're just waiting for next off-season hoping to hit a home run. I don't think we're gonna hit a home run. I think we're gonna strike out and maybe be able to resign our free agents.

I don't know how long Kamen and Blake are going to keep playing, but I don't expect it will be that long and we'll feel like we wasted this off-season.

yeah, everything seems to hinge on what happens next summer. What the roster will be and what kind of future roster flexibility it will leave

it's why I keep mentioning KP's 2009 cap-space plan. Everything from the 2007 draft forward was put on hold because of 2009 cap-space. And it sure seems for the most part that Olshey has put everything on hold because of a 2015 plan, even though we're not certain what it is

KP was pretty specific about his plan. The damn cake was gonna bake and 2009 would add the icing... . Unfortunately, the cake didn't rise because of the yeast in the knees of Miles, Roy, and Oden

Olshey has been beyond vague on what his plan is. He's used a metaphor though...."move the needle". Bake-a-cake...move-the-needle...wait-and-see

sometimes I wonder if Olshey's grand plan is simply trying to re-sign all the starters and hope the new TV deal will elevate the cap and tax threshold enough to be able to afford a bench. But that won't be until the 3rd season of Aldridge's new contract...when he's 32. Long time from now

Part of the problem of that plan if I remember correctly was also the albatross contract of Darius Miles, KP tried to amnesty him based on injury which would have gotten Darius his millions either way, the guy takes it upon himself to go out get another team to play him 20ish games or whatever the minimum was just to make sure he sticks it to the Blazers.

Darius is an **** and if I ever see his punk ass I will tell it to his face. This time we don't have any bad contracts that we need to find a way out of to have the appropriate cap space on that year.

[monopoman]

I don't think there is a clear 2015 plan as many here suggest.

I think Olshey's idea is to keep flexibility and see what the best move in 2015 will be. Maybe it will be a FA signing, maybe a trade... I guess NO doesn't know yet how the "2015 plan" will look. It will dépend on the opportunities he has.

Oslhey has said he is looking for deals that move the needle a guy like CP3 or something is what he is looking for in free agency, despite what people say here would most of the guys people are advocating for really be "the difference makers" that turns this team into championship material.

We will have a hard time attracting a guy like CP3 in free agency but that is the best bet we have to build a championship barring throwing all older talent, and trying to build in the draft which is as much of a crap shoot as it is a science.

[Capn'O]

B

Blake and Kaman are both solid pickups that should improve the bench play. That was critical. The Blazers needed another move though. They'll once again be relying on too much unproven talent which isn't an ideal place for a playoff team.

[Village Idiot]

I don't think there is a clear 2015 plan as many here suggest.

I think Olshey's idea is to keep flexibility and see what the best move in 2015 will be. Maybe it will be a FA signing, maybe a trade... I guess NO doesn't know yet how the "2015 plan" will look. It will dépend on the opportunities he has.

Oslhey has said he is looking for deals that move the needle a guy like CP3 or something is what he is looking for in free agency, despite what people say here would most of the guys people are advocating for really be "the difference makers" that turns this team into championship material.

We will have a hard time attracting a guy like CP3 in free agency but that is the best bet we have to build a championship barring throwing all older talent, and trying to build in the draft which is as much of a crap shoot as it is a science.

Chris Paul wasn't a free-agent. He was acquired in trade the year before he could become an unrestricted free-agent. It's the whole trade him now and get something in return or wait a year and get maybe nothing. Same thing Kevin Love is doing right now. Probably the same thing Kevin Durant will do next summer if they don't win a championship.

[monopoman]

I don't think there is a clear 2015 plan as many here suggest.

I think Olshey's idea is to keep flexibility and see what the best move in 2015 will be. Maybe it will be a FA signing, maybe a trade... I guess NO doesn't know yet how the "2015 plan" will look. It will dépend on the opportunities he has.

Oslhey has said he is looking for deals that move the needle a guy like CP3 or something is what he is looking for in free agency, despite what people say here would most of the guys people are advocating for really be "the difference makers" that turns this team into championship material.

We will have a hard time attracting a guy like CP3 in free agency but that is the best bet we have to build a championship barring throwing all older talent, and trying to build in the draft which is as much of a crap shoot as it is a science.

Chris Paul wasn't a free-agent. He was acquired in trade the year before he could become an unrestricted free-agent. It's the whole trade him now and get something in return or wait a year and get maybe nothing. Same thing Kevin Love is doing right now. Probably the same thing Kevin Durant will do next summer if they don't win a championship.

I realize it was a trade, I meant he is keeping that space open so he can potentially sign a free agent or trade for one that will be a big help. I mean if the Cp3 trade to the Lakers went through, then he wouldn't have even gotten Cp3 onto the Clippers. So it takes some definite good luck in addition to being in the right position at the right time to get a player of that level for any reason.

I sincerely doubt Aldridge leaves in free agency, I mean it seems like half the board here thinks it could quite reasonably happen. I give those odds on probably about a 10-15% chance of leaving definitely not something that seems quite likely.