Official 2016 Draft Prospects Thread

Masterfully · Post #421 » by **Masterfully** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:11 pm

My problem with Hield is similar to Hammons. Hield was a very forgettable player until this year. Are we to believe the 3 previous seasons were flukes, or that this season is a fluke? History doesn't reflect well on late bloomers. He's also undersized and can't play PG. No way I'd use a top 10 pick on him.

No-Man · Post #422 » by **No-Man** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:42 pm

GreenRiddler wrote:Wow, Simmons got outshined by Buddy Hield. He is totally a top 10 player in this draft.

Yikes, good luck to whoever drafts Hield in the top10, or the top20 for that matter.

GreenRiddler · Post #423 » by **GreenRiddler** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:45 pm

Fischella wrote:
GreenRiddler wrote:Wow, Simmons got outshined by Buddy Hield. He is totally a top 10 player in this draft.

Yikes, good luck to whoever drafts Hield in the top10, or the top20 for that matter.

Really? The guy is leading the nation in scoring, has good size, dribble and finishing at the rim. What makes you think he can't be a starter in the NBA? At 10-20 a lot of worse prospects than him have been picked in that range the past 3 drafts.

GreenRiddler · Post #424 » by **GreenRiddler** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:50 pm

Masterfully wrote:My problem with Hield is similar to Hammons. Hield was a very forgettable player until this year. Are we to believe the 3 previous seasons were flukes, or that this season is a fluke? History doesn't reflect well on late bloomers. He's also undersized and can't play PG. No way I'd use a top 10 pick on him.

No I wouldn't either, that is just me saying he looks like a late pusher into the top 10. I also don't see how that's a factor, its not like Buddy was a bum his 1st 3 years. He had a season in his Sophomore year a lot like Allen Crabbe's Junior year and Crabbe was a Pac 12 player of the year for it.

Just a bit perplexed how a prospect like that isn't 100% lotto certified. We don't need to help these playoff teams get these players by letting them slip out of the Lotto like Gobert did. I hope some other team in the Lotto grabs him VS a Memphis or OKC getting stronger.

Masterfully · Post #425 » by **Masterfully** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:55 pm

Yeah, Hield's sophomore year was solid, but not great. He had a PER under 20, which is comparable to what Jamal Murray is doing as a freshman. I like Hield as a college player, but as an NBA player he feels like a poor man's CJ McCollum.

JasonStern · Post #426 » by **JasonStern** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:39 am

Masterfully wrote:My problem with Hield is similar to Hammons. Hield was a very forgettable player until this year. Are we to believe the 3 previous seasons were flukes, or that this season is a fluke? History doesn't reflect well on late bloomers.

Brandon Roy:
2002-03: 6ppg, 3rpg, 1apg
2003-04: 12ppg, 5rpg, 3apg
2004-05: 12ppg, 5rpg, 2apg
2005-06: 20ppg, 5rpg, 4apg

not saying Hield is Roy tier, but Roy was a low upside senior when Portland drafted him. same with Lillard. Same with McCollum...

Masterfully · Post #427 » by **Masterfully** » Mon Feb 1, 2016 2:40 pm

I've got no problem drafting a senior. I love Denzel Valentine. My issue is that he has never played anywhere close to this level until this year. It smacks of fluke. Roy and Lillard showed steady progression leading up to their senior years. Lillard's PER went 25, 28, 34. Hield's PER jumped 10 points from junior year to senior year.

The draft is an utter crap shoot. I have tried to study the guys that don't pan out to see what they have in common (because I'm a dork) and I noticed that the guy who looks average then suddenly blows up as a junior or a senior rarely makes an impact in the NBA. But maybe Hield breaks that trend.

Jstock12 · Post #428 » by **Jstock12** » Sat Feb 6, 2016 5:48 pm

Masterfully wrote:I've got no problem drafting a senior. I love Denzel Valentine. My issue is that he has never played anywhere close to this level until this year. It smacks of fluke. Roy and Lillard showed steady progression leading up to their senior years. Lillard's PER went 25, 28, 34. Hield's PER jumped 10 points from junior year to senior year.

The draft is an utter crap shoot. I have tried to study the guys that don't pan out to see what they have in common (because I'm a dork) and I noticed that the guy who looks average then suddenly blows up as a junior or a senior rarely makes an impact in the NBA. But maybe Hield breaks that trend.

The problem with analysis done by 'fans' is that they're very incomplete, because a large part of what makes or breaks a player is the mental component (competitiveness, desire to get better & win, as well as the work ethic). Even if a guy only has an average talent, but is mentally strong, he can still become an All-Star a few times. Just take a look at DeMar DeRozan - he was ridiculously raw, couldn't shoot, had bad handles, and was drafted 9th mainly because of his athleticism. However, he's one of those rare gym rats and he has worked on his craft diligently every offseason. You could actually call him a pretty crafty player right now. He's not a super talent and thus he doesn't have a 3PT range yet (shooting at 32% this season), nor is he a very good defender (you could call him average or slightly above average though).

The point of my rant is that Hield might not have the talent of the likes of Roy/Lillard, but he might or might not be one of those hard working gym rats that get better every year and maximize their projected limited upside, sometimes even going over it a little bit. Therefore this is the problem with fan analysis, we can analyze what they're doing on-court all we want, but we're missing the complete picture.

Wizenheimer · Post #429 » by **Wizenheimer** » Mon Feb 8, 2016 4:05 am

I've now watched Jakob Poeltl play 3 times this year (twice against Oregon), and I'm having a hard time seeing why he's rated as the #7 pick by DraftExpress. Granted, it's only 3 games but the 'undersized' Ducks have flummoxed him twice. He doesn't look like a big that can dominate the paint in the NBA but he's only 20

One player the Blazers should keep an eye on: I don't know if he'll leave school after his sophomore season, but Oregon's Dillon Brooks is really beginning to look like a great NBA prospect. He might not be worth a lottery pick this season, but he's been improving rapidly. He had 30 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists, and 2 steals today. Maybe it just the Duck homer in me talking, but Brooks has great handles and looks like an NBA SF in the making

Dame Lizard · Post #430 » by **Dame Lizard** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:40 am

AJ Hammons with 19 points, 13 rebounds, 8 blocks in today's OT win against Michigan State. Dude is a beast. I really want us to find a way to make that draft selection happen.

zzaj · Post #431 » by **zzaj** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:24 pm

Dame Lizard wrote:AJ Hammons with 19 points, 13 rebounds, 8 blocks in today's OT win against Michigan State. Dude is a beast. I really want us to find a way to make that draft selection happen.

Did you watch the game? I meant to watch, but something came up and I didn't have the chance. If you watched it I'm curious about your impressions of Valentine. 27/8/10...the knock is that he's too slow to play SF. I see an uber smart SG that will find ways to score and get his team involved, plus can help a team right away.

tester551 · Post #432 » by **tester551** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:39 pm

zzaj wrote:
Dame Lizard wrote:AJ Hammons with 19 points, 13 rebounds, 8 blocks in today's OT win against Michigan State. Dude is a beast. I really want us to find a way to make that draft selection happen.

Did you watch the game? I meant to watch, but something came up and I didn't have the chance. If you watched it I'm curious about your impressions of Valentine. 27/8/10...the knock is that he's too slow to play SF. I see an uber smart SG that will find ways to score and get his team involved, plus can help a team right away.

I didn't get to see the game, but Valentine is on my personal wish list. I know he is unconventional, but I think he has the skills to succeed and turn that into a positive.

Dame Lizard · Post #433 » by **Dame Lizard** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:00 am

zzaj wrote:
Dame Lizard wrote:AJ Hammons with 19 points, 13 rebounds, 8 blocks in today's OT win against Michigan State. Dude is a beast. I really want us to find a way to make that draft selection happen.

Did you watch the game? I meant to watch, but something came up and I didn't have the chance. If you watched it I'm curious about your impressions of Valentine. 27/8/10...the knock is that he's too slow to play SF. I see an uber smart SG that will find ways to score and get his team involved, plus can help a team right away.

I didn't unfortunately zzaj. I'm in Australia so now can't watch NBA games live due to my work hours. I just have to watch them delayed on league pass. The lack of live games also makes it impossible for me to watch college games as well.

Masterfully · Post #434 » by **Masterfully** » Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:36 pm

Murray has been on a tear lately. Putting up about 26 and 7 per game while shooting great. Somebody's gonna get an amazing player.

Goldbum · Post #435 » by **Goldbum** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 4:31 pm

Starting to feel like Dame won't let those team fall out of the playoffs. In fact with Gasol out for the year we could move in as far as 6th.

Edit: Kinda hilarious that spell check changes Gasol to gasoline.

Soulyss · Post #436 » by **Soulyss** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:21 pm

Goldbum wrote:Starting to feel like Dame won't let those team fall out of the playoffs. In fact with Gasol out for the year we could move in as far as 6th.

Edit: Kinda hilarious that spell check changes Gasol to gasoline.

Guys, we're not going to have a 1st round pick... Lillard SMASH!

Wizenheimer · Post #437 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:29 pm

yeah, if Portland makes the playoffs, they will have no pick in either the 1st or 2nd round.That will be the 2nd time that's happened in the last 3 drafts. In fact, if they lose their 1st this year, that would mean over the last 3 drafts the Blazer will have only had 1 draft pick and that one, they traded away on draft day

Soulyss · Post #438 » by **Soulyss** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:35 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:yeah, if Portland makes the playoffs, they will have no pick in either the 1st or 2nd round.That will be the 2nd time that's happened in the last 3 drafts. In fact, if they lose their 1st this year, that would mean over the last 3 drafts the Blazer will have only had 1 draft pick and that one, they traded away on draft day

and yet, I think we have the lowest payroll and one of the youngest teams in the league (especially if you ignore Kaman)... finding the third leg of the stool in FA/Trade will really be the key. We're going to be too good to "Build through the draft" going forward although if we're smart you can definitely add value late in the draft and get lucky.

Downtown · Post #439 » by **Downtown** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:46 pm

What I find interesting is the contrast between a team like Portland and Dallas. Olshey is building around Lillard and signed guys that compliment that age group. Dallas is riding Nowitski all the way to his retirement and bring in well experienced veterans that could gel together quicker.

And neither team had a big draft last year and likely not this year as well. So both need to make trades or sign the right free agent if they want to move beyond the middle of the pack for next season. I would absolutely love to see Portland get Dwight Powell from Dallas. He would be a great fit as the defensive young centre, and I would trade Crabbe in a sign and trade deal no question. Or Leonard(of course). Portland could fill in Crabbes spot with someone like Hollis Thompson from Philly, who I think is a very similar player to Crabbe and pretty much on par, and has another season left with a team option at what would be less than what Crabbe will get.

So regardless of them not having a pick I think there's still a number of youngish(?) players out there that are a little under the radar that could be as good as having a pick that's outside of the lottery, if they had one.

Wizenheimer · Post #440 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:57 pm

Soulyss wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:yeah, if Portland makes the playoffs, they will have no pick in either the 1st or 2nd round.That will be the 2nd time that's happened in the last 3 drafts. In fact, if they lose their 1st this year, that would mean over the last 3 drafts the Blazer will have only had 1 draft pick and that one, they traded away on draft day

and yet, I think we have the lowest payroll and one of the youngest teams in the league (especially if you ignore Kaman)... finding the third leg of the stool in FA/Trade will really be the key. We're going to be too good to "Build through the draft" going forward although if we're smart you can definitely add value late in the draft and get lucky.

yeah, I wasn't taking a shot at anything there, just pointing out that it's likely to be an unusual 3 year dry spell in terms of draft picks