Greatest Blazers Ever: Vote for #5

[Moonbeam]

The list so far is here.

Project Guidelines:

Spoiler:

1. Each thread will be open for 48 hours. After 48 hours have passed, the thread will close if a single player receives a majority of the votes. If not, the top 2-3 candidates will enter a runoff period of 24 hours. During this period, you may switch your vote to one of the reduced list of candidates if you voted for someone else.

2. When making a formal vote, please include the player's name in bold. This helps me keep track. Please include a justification for your choice. It may be brief, but simply writing the name of your choice will not be a counted vote.

3. You may switch your vote, but please emphasize this in bold.

4. Please only consider each player's performance with Portland.

5. We all have our favorites, and we all have our own criteria. I believe the discussion and learning from this project will be more important than the placement of the individual players.

6. Have fun!

Runoff Guidelines:

Spoiler:

If at the end of 48 hours, no single player has more than 50% of the votes cast, the top 2 candidates will enter a runoff vote.

1. Original votes for one of these 2 players still count.

2. Those who voted for one of the candidates outside of the top 2 must cast a vote for one of the top 2 candidates for their votes to count.

3. Those who did not vote in the first 48 hours are still welcome to vote in the runoff.

4. Anyone is welcome to change his/her vote if swayed by the arguments of others.

Hopefully turnout bounces back this time! Lots of good candidates here, many of whom have already gotten votes: Sheed, Lucas, LMA, Sabonis, Pippen. Maybe Petrie or Wicks get a look from some?

[Moonbeam]

I'm going to give a long look to Sheed, Lucas, LMA, and Sabonis. Those are the favorites for the next few spots for me. I could be persuaded for some others like Pippen, though.

[DaVoiceMaster]

My vote goes to: Arvydas Sabonis

Sabonis was huge and not just in size or stature. The guy did a whole lot and considering he was on the downside of his career, we all can't help but wonder what might have happened had he come over in the late 80's when the Blazers drafted him. The guy had everything you could dream of for a center. So talented, had a big heart, and he played through a lot of pain. Gotta give the guy big props!

[Brandon-Clyde]

Rasheed Wallace-- Best player on a title contending team. Very good all around player

[a_sensei]

This was the most difficult one so far. I had always considered Mo Lucas a top five Blazer, but his Blazer career was only 3.5 years (not including old man Lucas returning for his final year). I looked at 'Sheed, Sabas and preliminarily looked at some other guys as well but I think I'm going to have to vote for LaMarcus Aldridge here. He has the longevity and the numbers. All NBA Second Team once, Third Team twice, four all-star appearances, leading the team out of the first round for the first time in over a decade, plus he was a major part of two very memorable Blazer eras. Obviously not the popular pick at this point but I think we'll look back at LaMarcus more positively as time passes.

[Wizenheimer]

vote goes to Maurice Lucas

all the reasons to vote for him have been outlined in the previous threads. So far, we've selected the two best players of the 90's team that had the longest sustained run of 'greatness' in team history, but couldn't quite climb the highest mountain. It's fitting to have the two best players off the team that was the only Blazer team to climb that highest mountain.

[Masterfully]

Three power fowards caught my eye here. LMA and Sheed are solid picks but my vote goes to Maurice Lucas. He was a great player on a great team. That team peaked high enough to bring home the franchise's only championship. Very solid all around player that if he had played in Portland from his rookie season through his prime he might be #1 on this list.

[Norm2953]

I'm going to keep voting for Sabas for the previous reasons

[d-train]

Rasheed Wallace

Some people made a very compelling case for Rasheed at #4. Rasheed was our best player on the longest running great Blazer team. That should be a swaying argument for those that keep trumpeting longevity. He is the only "best player" from one of our 3 great teams that isn't already on the best player list. Everyone knows Rasheed was a talented offensive player so fans expected him to be a great offensive player, but Rasheed's best asset was his defense. He was the defensive anchor on a great team and that's saying something when you consider Pippen was his teammate. And, Rasheed was our anchor on offense as well but Rasheed always insisted on team basketball and that the offensive load be shared.

Luke, Aldridge, Pippen, and Buck Williams deserve consideration, but Rasheed is my choice here.

[PDXKnight]

Maurice Lucas

I had him at 3 and at 3 that was more of a dispute but I can't reasonably put anyone ahead of Mo here at 5. Second best player on the title team and a better ppg total than Walton in 76-77. He was essential to that championship team and while his time as a Blazer was limited oh what a time it was.

[portlandoden]

LMA

I dunno how salty people are about him leaving, but:
1st in Rebounds and D/Rebounds
2nd in Points, FG's
3rd in Minutes, O/Rebounds O/WS and WS
4th in Games, PER, Blocks

And if it's defining moments you want, how about the first games of the last Houston series?!

[DavidSterned]

Vote: Maurice Lucas

The 2nd best player on the best Blazer team. People can't forget how huge he was in those '77 playoffs, the perfect 1B to Walton, putting up 21/10/4 and providing (literal) fight for his team. Without him there's no way the team wins. What he lacked in longevity with the franchise he made up for by being huge when the team needed him.

[TheEnforcer20]

Maurice Lucas For reasons listed in vote for #3

[zzaj]

Maurice Lucas

Easily the toughest choice so far for me. IMO, at this stage you could REALLY make a compelling argument for about 8 guys at this spot. Because I'm not factoring longevity as a serious criterion in my choices, ML gets my vote over 'Sheed or Aldridge. I have to admit that Rod Strickland is starting to look pretty good right about now...

[JasonStern]

this is where I will go with the currently unpopular, but correct, choice and vote LaMarcus Aldridge.

seasons with Portland:
Aldridge 9
Sabonis 7
Wallace 6.5
Lucas 3.5

playoff series wins as #1 option
Wallace 4
Aldridge 1
Sabonis 0
Lucas 0

All-Star Appearances With Portland
Aldridge 4
Lucas 3
Wallace 2
Sabonis 0

2nd Team All-NBA Appearances With Portland
Aldridge 1
Lucas 1
Wallace 0
Sabonis 0

All-NBA Third Team Apperances With Portland
Aldridge 3
Lucas 0
Wallace 0
Sabonis 0

NBA All-Rookie Appearances With Portland
Aldridge 1
Sabonis 1
Lucas 0
Wallace 0

Franchise Points
Aldridge #2
Wallace #9
Lucas, Sabonis outside the top 10

Franchise Rebounds
Aldridge #1
Wallace #7
Sabonis #8
Lucas outside the top 10

Franchise Blocks
Wallace #3
Aldridge #4
Sabonis #9
Lucas outside the top 10

Points Per Game With Portland
Aldridge #6 - 19.4ppg
Lucas, Wallace, Sabonis outside the top 10

Rebounds Per Game
Lucas 8.7
Aldridge 8.4
Wallace, Sabonis outside the top 10

PER
Sabonis 21.2
Aldridge 20.3
Lucas, Wallace outside the top 10

if you could count "what ifs?", then Sabonis wins this. but ultimately, he was already broken down by the time he finally started playing for Portland. greatest player? sure, but the poll is about the greatest Blazer.

if Lucas had a longer tenure as a Blazer, or any success as the #1 option when Walton was out, then I could see voting for him. but he didn't, and he has the shortest tenure out of the remaining candidates.

if Wallace won a championship instead of passively letting the 2000 Western Conference Finals slip away, then I could see voting for him. but instead, he was a headcase on a stacked team that underperformed.

hate him for leaving in free agency, but Aldridge had the better career as a Blazer.

[Jstock12]

if you could count "what ifs?", then Sabonis wins this. but ultimately, he was already broken down by the time he finally started playing for Portland. greatest player? sure, but the poll is about the greatest Blazer.

Greatest dance moves though.

[Masterfully]

this is where I will go with the currently unpopular, but correct, choice and vote LaMarcus Aldridge.

seasons with Portland:
Aldridge 9
Sabonis 7
Wallace 6.5
Lucas 3.5

playoff series wins as #1 option
Wallace 4
Aldridge 1
Sabonis 0
Lucas 0

All-Star Appearances With Portland
Aldridge 4
Lucas 3
Wallace 2
Sabonis 0

2nd Team All-NBA Appearances With Portland
Aldridge 1
Lucas 1
Wallace 0
Sabonis 0

All-NBA Third Team Apperances With Portland
Aldridge 3
Lucas 0
Wallace 0
Sabonis 0

NBA All-Rookie Appearances With Portland
Aldridge 1
Sabonis 1
Lucas 0
Wallace 0

Franchise Points
Aldridge #2
Wallace #9
Lucas, Sabonis outside the top 10

Franchise Rebounds
Aldridge #1
Wallace #7
Sabonis #8
Lucas outside the top 10

Franchise Blocks
Wallace #3
Aldridge #4
Sabonis #9
Lucas outside the top 10

Points Per Game With Portland
Aldridge #6 - 19.4ppg
Lucas, Wallace, Sabonis outside the top 10

Rebounds Per Game
Lucas 8.7
Aldridge 8.4
Wallace, Sabonis outside the top 10

PER
Sabonis 21.2
Aldridge 20.3
Lucas, Wallace outside the top 10

if you could count "what ifs?", then Sabonis wins this. but ultimately, he was already broken down by the time he finally started playing for Portland. greatest player? sure, but the poll is about the greatest Blazer.

if Lucas had a longer tenure as a Blazer, or any success as the #1 option when Walton was out, then I could see voting for him. but he didn't, and he has the shortest tenure out of the remaining candidates.

if Wallace won a championship instead of passively letting the 2000 Western Conference Finals slip away, then I could see voting for him. but instead, he was a headcase on a stacked team that underperformed.

hate him for leaving in free agency, but Aldridge had the better career as a Blazer.

I think you've convinced me for #6

[Moonbeam]

This is a tough one, but I think I'm going to go for Rasheed Wallace. JasonStern listed a bunch of stats, and so will I.

Win Shares:

Aldridge: 69.4
Wallace: 61.3
Sabonis: 47.3
Lucas: 23.6

Win Shares/48:

Sabonis: .200
Wallace: .152
Aldridge: .145
Lucas: .115

BPM:

Sabonis: 3.8
Wallace: 2.3
Aldridge: 1.2
Lucas: 0.4

VORP:

Wallace: 21.1
Aldridge: 18.5
Sabonis: 16.6
Lucas: 6.1

Playoff WS:

Wallace: 5.3
Sabonis: 3.9
Lucas: 2.6
Aldridge: 2.0

Playoff WS/48:

Wallace: .135
Sabonis: .129
Lucas: .111
Aldridge: .069

Playoff BPM:

Wallace: 3.2
Sabonis: 3.1
Lucas: 2.5
Aldridge: -1.5

Playoff VORP:

Wallace: 2.5
Sabonis: 1.9
Lucas: 1.3
Aldridge: 0.2

Aldridge is somewhat notorious for looking poor in these metrics despite having positive impact, but Sheed looks to have been better by +/- metrics like RAPM as well:

Using prior-informed RAPM:

1997-98 (source):

Sabonis: +4.68
Wallace: +4.61

1998-99 (source):

Wallace: +6.90
Sabonis: +5.30

1999-00 (source):

Wallace: +6.18
Sabonis: +4.53

2000-01 (source):

Sabonis: +3.6
Wallace: +3.5

2001-02 (source):

Wallace: +4.2

2002-03 (source):

Wallace: +4.5
Sabonis: +3.2

2003-04 (source):

Wallace: +4.8

2006-07 (source):

Aldridge: 0.0

2007-08 (source):

Aldridge: +1.2

2008-09 (source):

Aldridge: +3.0

2009-10 (source):

Aldridge: +2.3

2010-11 (source):

Aldridge: +3.2

2011-12 (source):

Aldridge: +3.2

2012-13 (source):

Aldridge: +3.8

2013-14 (source):

Aldridge: +3.7

2014-15 (source):

Aldridge: +2.9

These numbers don't make my decision for me, but they paint a picture of Sheed being a borderline top-5 player and superstar at his best (and Sabonis being nearly that though at a lower minute load), while Aldridge looks more like a 15-25 level player generally.

The clincher for me is the playoff performance. Bar those amazing first 2 games against Houston, Aldridge has not been a very good playoff performer. Sabonis is a great candidate as well, but the limitations of his age/mobility in terms of the sheer number of minutes he could play factors in here. Lucas is the wild card for me, as I feel it's hard to get a sense of his impact parsed away from Walton. He's probably the best defender of the bunch, and he looks to have held his own quite well in the playoffs as well.

[Moonbeam]

Tally so far:

Maurice Lucas (6): Wizenheimer, Masterfully, Oden2, DavidSterned, TheEnforcer20, zzaj

LaMarcus Aldridge (3): a_sensei, portlandoden, JasonStern

Rasheed Wallace (3): Brandon-Clyde, d-train, Moonbeam

Arvydas Sabonis (2): DaVoiceMaster, Norm2953

No player has a clean majority, so we're going into a runoff, but will it be Lucas vs. LMA or Lucas vs. Sheed?

The next vote for either Rasheed Wallace or LaMarcus Aldridge will determine who will face Maurice Lucas in the runoff. Whether DaVoiceMaster or Norm2953 want to switch, or someone who hasn't voted yet wants to make a call...

[d-train]

Why not just have a 3 player runoff? There is no clear winner so you are giving Luke an unfair advantage.