Draft Position

[a_sensei]

With the emergence of a new generation of superstar in the past year (Kawai Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Dryamond Green) I was curious about how much draft position has mattered over the past handful of drafts. I'm only looking at guys who have had a positive impact to their team's success so I left guys like Tyreke Evans out despite definitely being above average while including very good role players like Taj Gibson and Danny Green. I included some guys with upside that haven't proved as much as well.

What I see is that there are difference makers all over the board. While having the #1 pick in all of those drafts other than 2013= superstar. No other draft position comes up much. Obviously my rankings are subjective.

Of the 13 guys I have listed in "Generational"/"Current Superstar/Regular All Star"
4 are #1 picks (Griffin, Irving, Wall, Davis)
2 are #3-5 (Harden, Cousins)
2 are #6-9 (Curry, Lillard)
3 are #10-15 (George, K. Thompson, K. Leonard)
2 were picked #30+ (Butler, Green)

While I believe it will be better for the Blazers not to make the playoffs and get their pick this year, what I see in this list is that with great talent evaluation, player development and a bit of luck the Blazers will be okay.

2009
Generational: Steph Curry (7)
Current Superstar/Regular All-Star: Blake Griffin (1) James Harden (3)
Star: Jeff Teague (19) DeMar Derozan (9)
Above Average: Jrue Holliday (17) Taj Gibson (26) Danny Green (46)

2010
Current Superstar/Regular All-Star: Paul George (10) Demarcus Cousins (5) John Wall (1)
Star: Gordan Hayward (9)
Above Average: Eric Bledsoe (18) Derrick Favors (3) Hassan Whiteside (33) Lance Stephenson at least in IND(40) Greg Monroe (7)

2011
Current Superstar/Regular All-Star: Kawai Leonard (15) Kyrie Irving (1) Jimmy Butler (30) Klay Thompson (11)
Star: Reggie Jackson (24) Kemba Walker (9)
Above Average: Isiah Thomas (60) Tobias Harris (19) Kenneth Faried (22) Brandon Knight (8) Tristan Thompson (4) Jonas Valnciunas (5)

2012
Current Superstar/Regular All-Star: Anthony Davis (1) Damian Lillard (6) Draymond Green (35)
Star: Andre Drummond (9)
Above Average: Bradley Beal (3) Harrison Barnes (7) Jae Crowder (34) Kris Middleton (39)
Will Barton was 40

2013
Above Average: Giannis Antetokounmpo (15) Rudy Gobert (27) Nerlens Noel (6) CJ McCollum (10) Victor Oladipo (2)
Allen Crabbe was 31

[Masterfully]

I think having a top 5 pick can be overrated for the reasons you illustrated. But position does matter. In 2012 all of us would have gladly had the 9th pick for Drummond instead of the 11th pick for Leonard. That's only 2 spots but the return was huge.

[Wizenheimer]

82 games did an analysis of this. They have a rather low threshold for what they call a "star", but the percentage of getting one according to draft slot is interesting

Pick - odds of a star:

1 - 70%
2 - 60%
3 - 85%
4 - 60%
5 - 60%
6 - 25%
7 - 30%
8 - 35%
9 - 30%
10 - 35%
11 - 15%
12 - 5%
13 - 20%
14 - 25%
15 - 10%

the fall-off after #5 is pretty startling.

yeah, every once in a while an elite player will be found outside the top half of the lottery, but it's rare. It's still much, much better to have the high pick. Besides that, it the GM is smart enough to identify a future all-star who will be available outside the top-5, he can still grab the player with a high pick before some other GM, just as smart, grabs him first

[Dame Lizard]

I'm now not concerned about where we pick- I'm just concerned of us even being able to pick at all. If we make the playoffs and get swept 4-0, I can't wait to hear Olshey's speech that "our young guys really grew being at the mercy of Golden State (or Spurs). Our asset-base really got a chance to further establish itself and we will reap benefits of these 4 games in future years"............

Olshey is a fantastic drafter, and probably one of the more likely GM's to find that late lottery star that can eventuate. He can't draft anything without a pick though......!

[Shem]

the fall-off after #5 is pretty startling.

What's interesting is how low #6 is. Yet that is where both Lillard and Roy were drafted.

[Wizenheimer]

the fall-off after #5 is pretty startling.

What's interesting is how low #6 is. Yet that is where both Lillard and Roy were drafted.

I think the most interesting number is the 3rd pick. Three lottery 'winners' and the GM that is left with the player the other GM's didn't want, does best.

[Norm2953]

I'd be happy with just the sixth pick for Portland has done well at 6.

[Soulyss]

While I think there are two clear "Prizes" in this draft, I think as long as we're picking in the 6-8 range there is good value. I could easily see one of the following guys drop to us in that range:

Jaylen Brown
Jakob Poeltl
Skal Labissiere
Henry Ellenson

all would be quality building blocks for Portland.

[Shem]

the fall-off after #5 is pretty startling.

What's interesting is how low #6 is. Yet that is where both Lillard and Roy were drafted.

I think the most interesting number is the 3rd pick. Three lottery 'winners' and the GM that is left with the player the other GM's didn't want, does best.

In a general sense, yes. But my interest in the Trail Blazers trumps it so the 6th pick gets the slight edge because of lightning striking twice at that spot in such a short time.

[PDXKnight]

If I'm being entirely honest I think this off season will be huge in terms of the big picture. We really need a second star to have any prayer of contending for a title at some point and somehow mustering a future star via a trade or the draft or player development may very well be the determining factor on if in the long run we will have to blow this team up even more or stick with what we have. Certainly lillard is a stud and cj is solid but right now this team looks like an 8 seed at best barring the addition of another all star caliber player or at the very least 2 guys who could start on most teams. As far as the off season goes I think we need that pick merely for the sake of having one more card in our deck to help get us out of mediocrity. Ultimately it might be a roll of the dice whether this bunch can make a contender at some point but certainly having as many pieces to add to the puzzle as possible (such as a big) is essential