Dame Lizard wrote:I agree that AC is going to get paid this summer, I just hope it's not ludacris. I'd definitely pay $11M for him given this current cap. I think he'll get a bigger offer than that though, which does scare me.
I think generically, 11 million is right on the edge of being too much. And going by last summer, then projecting how crazy it will probably be for the next couple of off-seasons, Crabbe could easily get more. GM's and owners always talk financial restraint, but then when free agency starts, several always go off the rails dragging others with them. I didn't think Batum was going to get more then 9 million a year, then David Kahn made sure he got 11.5; I thought Wesley Matthews was out to lunch saying he was worth 15 million/year, and then he ends up getting 17.5 million....coming off an achilles rupture...
Danny Green, a true 3&D type, got 10 million/year under a 70 million cap. But he's a Spur and they always seem to re-sign their own players on significantly discounted contracts. Their players don't even seem to go out and get any competing offers
So easily, Crabbe can get more then 11 million/year, even though he's not really that good a 3&D guy since he's not very good defensively and he's only a 37.7% three point shooter this season....which is right around his career average.
What Crabbe does very well is shoot mid-range shots. That has some good value. On the other hand, Crabbe doesn't create offense for himself or others. His 84% assisted FG rate is one of the highest in the league. And his assist rate ranks 111th among 133 qualified NBA wings. And among those wings, he ranks 107th in rebound rate. Further, he ranks 97th among NBA guards in FT Rate
so, assuming Portland did get him at 11 million/ year, they'd be buying a scoring guard that does a poor job of creating his own offense or getting to the FT line, rarely creates offense for others, is a weak rebounder, and is a well below average defender. He's not a one-trick pony but many of the tricks he does perform, he doesn't do well. Yeah, I know that's likely too harsh an evaluation, but it is kind of useful to actually compare what Crabbe is doing to other wings in the league when you're talking about potentially giving him a 50 million dollar contract. Maybe the best thing is that he's the bird-in-the-hand and appears to do well in the Stotts offense. But it sure seems there's the potential for a serious overpay under those conditions
Dame Lizard wrote:Plumlee has been a shot blocking machine over these last 5 games averaging 2.4 bpg. That's what I want to see!
If we pay Meyers big money this offseason, I'll cry internally and likely externally as well.
I wasn't as turned off by Plumlee's rim-protection ability as you were. He does some things well but he's certainly not a defensive force, even with a spike in blocks. The clock is ticking on him...he only has one more season on his rookie deal. I suppose Plumlee is an OK place-holder at C till somebody better comes along, but dominant defensive C's are kind of rare
as for re-signing meyers, yeah, that scares me too. You mentioned Olshey's drafting acumen. Well, he did draft Meyers, but even great drafters are going to buy a clunker every now and then. Probably unavoidable. But keep in mind another component of Olshey's history in Portland:
* he made a max offer to Roy Hibbert that quickly became an albatross contract
* he drafted Meyers
* he spent essentially 4 2nd round picks and cap-space on TRob
* he made the max offer he could to Spenser Hawes, and that ended up a bad contract
* he made a big push for Greg Monroe and the Bucks are already trying to dump him
* he made a max offer to Enes Kanter that nobody in OKC is pleased about matching
* according to Quick, Olshey made a "considerable" offer. Considering the contracts given out last summer, that's scary
so, while he may be a great drafter, his judgement on big men is really questionable. That in mind, it would be a relief is meyers was traded before the deadline, Then no worries this summer, but that's very unlikely
Meyers and tenacity are like oil and water. It'd be much easier to give Plumlee a 15' jump shot.
