Blazers: Free Agent options

[DusterBuster]

You talk about Horford's age but i would take Horford over Howard and that's taking out behavior issues and such every day of the week. However as i say that i am not opposed to Howard but there is more of a risk with Dwight then Horford and considering the money both want i would rather take a chance on Horford then Howard.

I would rather get Horford and then spend what ever is left on a Cole Aldrich type player to fill in behind whoever is the center is when the season starts.

I don't disagree. Age is basically a wash wish Horford and Howard. If you can get Horford (not sure why you want Aldrich with Plumlee still there, but I digress), you absolutely do it. The problem there comes in the form of reality.

Look, the bottom line is Howard is way more attainable than Horford. Al is almost guaranteed to get a full max offer from Atlanta, which will be more than anyone else in the league can offer. He prefers playing and living in the SE and he's not desperately looking for a new team. Those factors all equal up to him 9 times outta 10, him staying in Atlanta and the 1 outta 10 chance is him going to a title contender like San Antonio, GS or someone of that ilk. He's not coming to the cold rainy PNW in the hopes he can get to the WCF and get bounced. He'll gladly stay in Atlanta, make more money, get to the ECF (and probably get bounced) and soak up the sun.

Howard meanwhile is absolutely 100% done in Houston and on the hunt for a new squad. Houston's not giving him a full max contract by a long shot. His rep is stained a bit and if he's got any head on his shoulders at all still, he'd be wise to go somewhere where he can rehab that rep. Portland is ideal for that considering the culture the team has here. If he's still a bit dense in the head and looking for the big lights, he'll end up in New York where he'll probably get eaten alive by the media and his career will come crashing down since NY does seem to be where aging stars go to burn out.

[Wizenheimer]

Now you're down to Bizmack. He shouldn't command a max deal and Toronto is seemingly prepped to have a cap on how high they're willing to go for him. I'd suspect that's around 12mil range. Good news for Blazers is it leaves more room for other moves. Bad news for Blazers is.... how good is he really? He seems to have a solid rebounding and shot blocking game, but his per36 really wasn't much better than his time in Charlotte this year and he seemingly has hands of stone offensively, so you aren't really getting any offense whatsoever out of him. Maybe Portland gets Biz and Monroe? It's a weird lineup considering how much bigger Monroe is than Biz, but Monroe's offense and having Biz's defense could be an interesting combo. That eliminates any hope of getting a defensive wing stopper though as I suspect those two will eat up most the Blazers cap room.

Biyombo is absolutely horrible on offense. His defense and rebounding numbers are strong though. Cole Aldrich looks much better numbers-wise then even Biyombo, but it's a small sample size, so the risk might be higher. He'd very likely be much cheaper though

if it's the decision to go after cheaper C's, maybe on short term contracts, then Ian Mahinmi and Zaza Pachulia might be options. I don't know if Ezeli would be a cheaper option because he's RFA

Blazers may need to make a decision this summer because if they re-sign their own RFA's this summer and give CJ a shiny big contract next summer, they probably won't be able to afford re-signing Plumlee at the same time as CJ

[RTG HD]

Striking out the words Moda Center and replacing it with Rose Garden make TBPup my hero of the day. Oh yeah, good write up overall too.

[DusterBuster]

It's very curious looking at all the rumors coming out from teams "wish lists". All the teams in need of a C, none of them are reported to have Howard on their list of targets. Warriors seemingly have C as their next priority if/when they miss out on Durant and are targeting Noah, Horford and Whiteside. Knicks, there are rumors he wants to go there but none that they're interested in him. Meanwhile Noah, Gasol and Whiteside are mentioned.... no Howard. Dallas, targeting Whiteside, Horford and Conley. Wizards reportedly Noah and Durant.

Almost no talk whatsoever of teams actually targeting Howard.

[zzaj]

It's unpopular, but I'm still in the add Aldrich, Marvin Williams and a better playmaker camp. Get decent players on decent tradeable contracts. Package CJ before he gets overpaid for a better 2nd option.

If he were younger, Horford would be perfect for this team...
I still don't think Whiteside/Horford/Howard are going to come to Portland, and even if they do it doesn't mean much in the win column, IMO. With the defensive system that Stotts runs, I have serious doubts that adding any of those players suddenly makes Portland a contender...it makes them an expensive treadmill team.

Remember that Miami's team defense was better when Whiteside was on the bench. That being said, I won't fault Olshey if Whiteside wants Portland and it turns out to be a fail long term. I believe most GMs would sign him to a Max if given the opportunity.

[zzaj]

It's very curious looking at all the rumors coming out from teams "wish lists". All the teams in need of a C, none of them are reported to have Howard on their list of targets. Warriors seemingly have C as their next priority if/when they miss out on Durant and are targeting Noah, Horford and Whiteside. Knicks, there are rumors he wants to go there but none that they're interested in him. Meanwhile Noah, Gasol and Whiteside are mentioned.... no Howard. Dallas, targeting Whiteside, Horford and Conley. Wizards reportedly Noah and Durant.

Almost no talk whatsoever of teams actually targeting Howard.

That's because they are smart. With his combo of distraction baggage, age, injuries, declining production, and unrealistic view of who he is as a player, I imagine most GMs understand giving him a Max contract is a bad gamble.

[DusterBuster]

It's very curious looking at all the rumors coming out from teams "wish lists". All the teams in need of a C, none of them are reported to have Howard on their list of targets. Warriors seemingly have C as their next priority if/when they miss out on Durant and are targeting Noah, Horford and Whiteside. Knicks, there are rumors he wants to go there but none that they're interested in him. Meanwhile Noah, Gasol and Whiteside are mentioned.... no Howard. Dallas, targeting Whiteside, Horford and Conley. Wizards reportedly Noah and Durant.

Almost no talk whatsoever of teams actually targeting Howard.

That's because they are smart. With his combo of distraction baggage, age, injuries, declining production, and unrealistic view of who he is as a player, I imagine most GMs understand giving him a Max contract is a bad gamble.

Any worse than giving Noah a max contract? Seems like a pretty bad gamble itself, not to mention there was quite a few rumblings that he wasn't exactly pleasant to be around in Chicago when things werent going his way.

[zzaj]

It's very curious looking at all the rumors coming out from teams "wish lists". All the teams in need of a C, none of them are reported to have Howard on their list of targets. Warriors seemingly have C as their next priority if/when they miss out on Durant and are targeting Noah, Horford and Whiteside. Knicks, there are rumors he wants to go there but none that they're interested in him. Meanwhile Noah, Gasol and Whiteside are mentioned.... no Howard. Dallas, targeting Whiteside, Horford and Conley. Wizards reportedly Noah and Durant.

Almost no talk whatsoever of teams actually targeting Howard.

That's because they are smart. With his combo of distraction baggage, age, injuries, declining production, and unrealistic view of who he is as a player, I imagine most GMs understand giving him a Max contract is a bad gamble.

Any worse than giving Noah a max contract? Seems like a pretty bad gamble itself, not to mention there was quite a few rumblings that he wasn't exactly pleasant to be around in Chicago when things werent going his way.

It's probably going to be worse than all of us thought--cap space happy and overreaching GMs. I actually don't believe the Noah for Max rumblings...if he signs for a Max I will be speechless. For once.

[Blazinaway]

That's because they are smart. With his combo of distraction baggage, age, injuries, declining production, and unrealistic view of who he is as a player, I imagine most GMs understand giving him a Max contract is a bad gamble.

Any worse than giving Noah a max contract? Seems like a pretty bad gamble itself, not to mention there was quite a few rumblings that he wasn't exactly pleasant to be around in Chicago when things werent going his way.

It's probably going to be worse than all of us thought--cap space happy and overreaching GMs. I actually don't believe the Noah for Max rumblings...if he signs for a Max I will be speechless. For once.

the Noah ridiculousness has already been refuted, an overzealous agent methinks

https://twitter.com/JMichaelCSN/status/746466124963840000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[DusterBuster]

Any worse than giving Noah a max contract? Seems like a pretty bad gamble itself, not to mention there was quite a few rumblings that he wasn't exactly pleasant to be around in Chicago when things werent going his way.

It's probably going to be worse than all of us thought--cap space happy and overreaching GMs. I actually don't believe the Noah for Max rumblings...if he signs for a Max I will be speechless. For once.

the Noah ridiculousness has already been refuted, an overzealous agent methinks

https://twitter.com/JMichaelCSN/status/746466124963840000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Makes sense. Rose is already pushing hard for Noah in New York. Noah's gonna have enough bidders that even if he isn't getting a max deal, there's going to be a bidding war. Happy the Blazers can stay out of that.

[TBpup]

The 2nd in a series of articles on FA options.

https://www.blazersland.com/the-untouchables/

[Blazers98]

I miss Lopez. I thought it was a good decision last year to let him go considering we were blowing the team up and doing a rebuild. Here we are 1 year later and the rebuild is much farther along than thought. I wish we would have kept Lopez now. At the time I thought 13 Mil was overpaying for him. But now with guys like Biyombo maybe getting 13-15 Mil a season, Lopez is looking pretty good.

To get back to the original post. Horford and Howard are not coming here. We can always throw a max contract at Whiteside and hope he comes, and hope for the best out of him, but it is doubtful. At the end of the day, I think we will role with what we have, Plumlee, and help him develop more.

[GreenRiddler]

Plumlee is what he is tbh. I don't know a lot of 26year olds that change their game up much.

It maybe unpopular but I think if we do land a FA center as it looks like we are targeting, Plumlee maybe out the door as Ed is on a favorable deal and is more proven as a consistent backup center. I hate to have him go from a starter to in and out of the rotation. He didn't like it when that happened in Brooklyn.

[Andre 2999]

It's unpopular, but I'm still in the add Aldrich, Marvin Williams and a better playmaker camp. Get decent players on decent tradeable contracts. Package CJ before he gets overpaid for a better 2nd option.

If he were younger, Horford would be perfect for this team...
I still don't think Whiteside/Horford/Howard are going to come to Portland, and even if they do it doesn't mean much in the win column, IMO. With the defensive system that Stotts runs, I have serious doubts that adding any of those players suddenly makes Portland a contender...it makes them an expensive treadmill team.

Remember that Miami's team defense was better when Whiteside was on the bench. That being said, I won't fault Olshey if Whiteside wants Portland and it turns out to be a fail long term. I believe most GMs would sign him to a Max if given the opportunity.

You're right, it's not popular, but I would be fine with that outcome actually...as long as we use them to get another star player! Combining young, affordable assets of good value can be a great way to go. If we could get both Aldrich and a solid wing like Marvin Williams or Harrison Barnes, and have a plan in place to package some guys for a LEGIT 2nd option...that might be a better move in the long run than getting say Dwight or Whiteside via free agency.

Imagine if some star player, such as Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins, gets disgruntled after a disappointing season, and we come in and offer a package like: CJ + Aminu + Plumlee + CLE '18 1st. It would be enough to at least start the conversation, and we'd have enough remaining assets to make this offer without gutting the entire roster.

[zzaj]

Plumlee is what he is tbh. I don't know a lot of 26year olds that change their game up much.

It maybe unpopular but I think if we do land a FA center as it looks like we are targeting, Plumlee maybe out the door as Ed is on a favorable deal and is more proven as a consistent backup center. I hate to have him go from a starter to in and out of the rotation. He didn't like it when that happened in Brooklyn.

Well we shouldn't be asking for much continued development from Whiteside if he comes to Portland. He's a year older than Plumlee!

[Wizenheimer]

It's unpopular, but I'm still in the add Aldrich, Marvin Williams and a better playmaker camp. Get decent players on decent tradeable contracts.

it might be wishful thinking of a high order to expect any "decent tradeable contracts" to flow out this summer. It might be the summer of bloat. Chances are that bargain contracts will be few and far between

Package CJ before he gets overpaid for a better 2nd option.

yeah well, we know that ain't going to happen

If he were younger, Horford would be perfect for this team...

Horford just turned 30 three weeks ago; he's a year younger then Aldridge. He also has the type of game that ages well. A 4 year deal would see his last game under that contract when he was still 33, less then 1 year older then Lebron is now. Speaking of Lebron, he's 8 years older then Kyrie Irving and that worked out ok. Horford is only 4 years older then Lillard. He's not too old IMO and I'm not really sure where all this noise about about teammates needing to be the same age came from. The Spurs won a championship when Tim Duncan was 15 years older then Kawhi Leonard

I still don't think Whiteside/Horford/Howard are going to come to Portland, and even if they do it doesn't mean much in the win column, IMO. With the defensive system that Stotts runs, I have serious doubts that adding any of those players suddenly makes Portland a contender...it makes them an expensive treadmill team.

I don't know about that. Those guys can have a big impact on both ends of the floor and they are definitely more talented than what Portland has. I think that would have a significant impact

I agree that the Stotts rope-a-dope defense needs a makeover

Remember that Miami's team defense was better when Whiteside was on the bench. That being said, I won't fault Olshey if Whiteside wants Portland and it turns out to be a fail long term. I believe most GMs would sign him to a Max if given the opportunity.

what is that stat based upon and how large a gap is there?

I see at BBREF that opponents had a 105.1 offensive rating with Whiteside on the court and a 104.2 with him off. But opponents had a worse eFG% with him on the court vs off, .482 vs .490. And in the playoffs, opponents only had a 99.3 off rating with him on-court vs 102.5 off

I'm inclined to think that particular stat you mentioned is an aberration, or at least a function of team circumstance. He averaged 29 minutes a game...a lot of different factors, for both Miami and opponents can be in play for the 19 minutes a game Whiteside was off the floor

further, Miami's team defensive rankings kind of dispute that issue you cite:

Defensive Rating:

Hassan Whiteside 95
Amar'e Stoudemire 101
Udonis Haslem 103
Chris Bosh 104
Josh McRoberts 105

Defensive Winshares:

Hassan Whiteside 5.3
Luol Deng 2.8
Justise Winslow 2.7
Dwyane Wade 2.6
Goran Dragic 2.3

Defensive Box Plus/Minus:

Hassan Whiteside 3.4
Justise Winslow 1.6
Amar'e Stoudemire 1.4
Luol Deng 0.6
Josh McRoberts 0.6

looking at those numbers vs that number(s) you mention, I have to think there's something else at work in those on/off numbers

then, there are some league-wide numbers:

Defensive Rating:

1. Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA 94.5
2. Tim Duncan ▪ SAS 95.7
3. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 96.0
4. Paul Millsap ▪ ATL 96.1
5. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 97.6


Defensive Win Shares:

1. Paul Millsap ▪ ATL 6.0
2. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 5.5
3. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 5.5
4. Andre Drummond ▪ DET 5.5
5. Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA 5.3

and some of Nylon Calculus Rim Protection numbers. Using play-by-play, Whiteside ranked 2nd in points saved/36 and 1st in points saved/game. And using Sportsvu tracking he was 6th in raw points saved/36 and 2nd in total points saved.

on the negative side, his opponent FG% allowed and opponent FG% against contested shot was not that impressive

he ranked 13th among C's in DRPM.

obviously, signing him is a high risk/high reward move. But I think Portland is in a position where they can't keep punting risky moves down the road because that treadmill you mentioned is in the middle of the road.

[GreenRiddler]

Plumlee is what he is tbh. I don't know a lot of 26year olds that change their game up much.

It maybe unpopular but I think if we do land a FA center as it looks like we are targeting, Plumlee maybe out the door as Ed is on a favorable deal and is more proven as a consistent backup center. I hate to have him go from a starter to in and out of the rotation. He didn't like it when that happened in Brooklyn.

Well we shouldn't be asking for much continued development from Whiteside if he comes to Portland. He's a year older than Plumlee!

Yup, but he doesn't have nearly as much to improve upon. He is already good.

[zzaj]

It's unpopular, but I'm still in the add Aldrich, Marvin Williams and a better playmaker camp. Get decent players on decent tradeable contracts.

it might be wishful thinking of a high order to expect any "decent tradeable contracts" to flow out this summer. It might be the summer of bloat. Chances are that bargain contracts will be few and far between

Package CJ before he gets overpaid for a better 2nd option.

yeah well, we know that ain't going to happen

If he were younger, Horford would be perfect for this team...

Horford just turned 30 three weeks ago; he's a year younger then Aldridge. He also has the type of game that ages well. A 4 year deal would see his last game under that contract when he was still 33, less then 1 year older then Lebron is now. Speaking of Lebron, he's 8 years older then Kyrie Irving and that worked out ok. Horford is only 4 years older then Lillard. He's not too old IMO and I'm not really sure where all this noise about about teammates needing to be the same age came from. The Spurs won a championship when Tim Duncan was 15 years older then Kawhi Leonard

I still don't think Whiteside/Horford/Howard are going to come to Portland, and even if they do it doesn't mean much in the win column, IMO. With the defensive system that Stotts runs, I have serious doubts that adding any of those players suddenly makes Portland a contender...it makes them an expensive treadmill team.

I don't know about that. Those guys can have a big impact on both ends of the floor and they are definitely more talented than what Portland has. I think that would have a significant impact

I agree that the Stotts rope-a-dope defense needs a makeover

Remember that Miami's team defense was better when Whiteside was on the bench. That being said, I won't fault Olshey if Whiteside wants Portland and it turns out to be a fail long term. I believe most GMs would sign him to a Max if given the opportunity.

what is that stat based upon and how large a gap is there?

I see at BBREF that opponents had a 105.1 offensive rating with Whiteside on the court and a 104.2 with him off. But opponents had a worse eFG% with him on the court vs off, .482 vs .490. And in the playoffs, opponents only had a 99.3 off rating with him on-court vs 102.5 off

I'm inclined to think that particular stat you mentioned is an aberration, or at least a function of team circumstance. He averaged 29 minutes a game...a lot of different factors, for both Miami and opponents can be in play for the 19 minutes a game Whiteside was off the floor

further, Miami's team defensive rankings kind of dispute that issue you cite:

Defensive Rating:

Hassan Whiteside 95
Amar'e Stoudemire 101
Udonis Haslem 103
Chris Bosh 104
Josh McRoberts 105

Defensive Winshares:

Hassan Whiteside 5.3
Luol Deng 2.8
Justise Winslow 2.7
Dwyane Wade 2.6
Goran Dragic 2.3

Defensive Box Plus/Minus:

Hassan Whiteside 3.4
Justise Winslow 1.6
Amar'e Stoudemire 1.4
Luol Deng 0.6
Josh McRoberts 0.6

looking at those numbers vs that number(s) you mention, I have to think there's something else at work in those on/off numbers

then, there are some league-wide numbers:

Defensive Rating:

1. Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA 94.5
2. Tim Duncan ▪ SAS 95.7
3. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 96.0
4. Paul Millsap ▪ ATL 96.1
5. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 97.6


Defensive Win Shares:

1. Paul Millsap ▪ ATL 6.0
2. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 5.5
3. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 5.5
4. Andre Drummond ▪ DET 5.5
5. Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA 5.3

and some of Nylon Calculus Rim Protection numbers. Using play-by-play, Whiteside ranked 2nd in points saved/36 and 1st in points saved/game. And using Sportsvu tracking he was 6th in raw points saved/36 and 2nd in total points saved.

on the negative side, his opponent FG% allowed and opponent FG% against contested shot was not that impressive

he ranked 13th among C's in DRPM.

obviously, signing him is a high risk/high reward move. But I think Portland is in a position where they can't keep punting risky moves down the road because that treadmill you mentioned is in the middle of the road.

Thanks for running the #s on that again, Wiz...it helps me feel a little better about the possibility. Without spending the time to look it all up, my statement was basically an aggregate of things mentioned in various Whiteside threads on the GB. The consensus being that his individual numbers didn't always transfer over to team success. A lot of what you cite here is contrary to that, which is heartening...

I should be clear. If he comes to Portland, I think Whiteside WILL help the Defense and I think he WILL help the offense. IMO, it just doesn't automatically push Portland straight into "contender" status like I've seen some posters state. I don't think it would address how poor the perimeter defense is in Stotts' system but it should help in a couple of those weaker "zones" we've discussed in other threads.

When I say "decent tradeable contracts" what I mean is the contracts that will be given out to the non-prime guys...like Aldrich, Williams, Williams, Leuer, Mahinmi, Lin, etc...I think that they'll still get overpaid compared to their production because it's a sellers market, but next season those contracts won't look as bad when the cap jumps even more. If teams get into trouble with capspace, having guys on slightly smaller salaries can make it easier to facilitate trades.

All that being said, I do agree that THIS is the make or break offseason. It's why I've been so pushy about trading CJ, even though he's my favorite Blazer player and I know Olshey won't ever part with him. His value will only go down after this summer unless he absolutely explodes next year and I don't think a team of Lillard/CJ as option 1 and option 2 respectively will ever contend for a championship...for reasons we've gone over and over.

[zzaj]

Horford just turned 30 three weeks ago; he's a year younger then Aldridge. He also has the type of game that ages well. A 4 year deal would see his last game under that contract when he was still 33, less then 1 year older then Lebron is now. Speaking of Lebron, he's 8 years older then Kyrie Irving and that worked out ok. Horford is only 4 years older then Lillard. He's not too old IMO and I'm not really sure where all this noise about about teammates needing to be the same age came from. The Spurs won a championship when Tim Duncan was 15 years older then Kawhi Leonard

Of all the options, Horford is my ideal C for Portland and I didn't mean that I think he's too old. What I meant by that statement is that he would be MORE ideal if he was a bit younger--the Blazers could possibly get 12years out of him instead of 7...or something like that.

IMO, Lebron is an outlier in this scenario because he's the best Basketball player on the planet, as evidenced by those last few games in the finals. Similarly, the Spurs and Duncan...he's a GOAT player.

I agree that age difference is quite a bit overrated, but I'm sure the current CAVS would rather magically have Lebron the same age as Kyrie and likewise the current Spurs the 15 years younger Duncan to play with Kawhi right now...

[Beeboywhoo]

wait why is everyone really high on aldrich again? He barely plays and does NOT look like a starting C at all