This summer

[DaVoiceMaster]

I would seriously doubt either Chicago or Indiana would want any part of CJ's contract. A team
that is seriously under the cap likely would do a deal but the Blazer fans have been arguing for
most of this season with the Sixer fans over CJ to no avail. Brooklyn has nothing to offer but
cap relief and Devon Booker just scored 70 points in an NBA game which suggests Phoenix really
does not need CJ. Minnesota is under the cap but unless they offer up Wiggins, have nothing to
offer us for we don't need another pick in 2017.

I think CJ is going to be here for the forseeable future but perhaps with enough draft incentives,
eventually Crabbe can be moved prior to Portland having to pay the repeater luxury taxes.

Does Crabbe get moved if you move CJ? I think it's one or the other with the way Crabbe is FINALLY starting to play.

[zzaj]

That's a pretty good group for comparison Wiz. CJ has some pretty nice offensive numbers compared to those two, but then you look at rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, etc.

Does the dynamic of the team change if you bring Butler or George in? Right now this is Dame's team and guys really seem to buy into the team concept, get together during the summer to work out, etc. Would that change with Butler or George? Is this still Dame's team? Do the guys still fall in line (so to speak) or does it become a free-for-all?

What type of filler is needed with CJ to get either player?

I'm guessing that CJ + Harkless+draft pick(s) for Butler + salary could get it done.

Lillard
Butler
Aminu
Vonleh
Nurkic

George would likely be cheaper because of the rental outcome. If he can be locked up somehow and traded then it'd probably look like what's above. I don't think he can be resigned though until next year?

Man, for some reason I thought that Chicago had a better record than they do (currently out of the playoffs). I know both teams have been in maybe 'blow it up' talks for a couple of years. But if they miss the playoffs...If Butler is indeed available, he's the better player and would help cover some of the Blazer backcourt defensive issues. He's apparently playing through ligament damage in one of his hands (which always seem to be messed up, for some reason) so that'd be something to thoroughly check out...

Fit-wise, if George were a Blazer it'd be really interesting to see a high usage/scoring SF in a Stotts system. We've never really seen that before...

[Roy The Natural]

If I'm Olshey, my mission this summer is to make every asset available not named Lillard or Nurkic to try and trade for Paul George.

Draft picks, CJ, Harkless, whatever...it may be impossible, but a 'Big 3' of Lillard/George/Nurkic is what I'd be shooting for.

I'd rather shoot for Jimmy Butler then Paul George, but either would be acceptable depending on some other considerations

the first consideration is contracts.

* George has two years remaining at 20 million/year with a player option for the 2nd year
* Butler has 3 years left at about 19.5 million/year with a player option for the 3rd year
* CJ has 4 years left at about 26.7 million/year

so, if you like control more then anything else, CJ's is the best deal, mitigated negatively by a higher cost and his 'shortcomings' on defense. If you want some financial savings, Butler's the best deal mitigated negatively by the possibility he'd be gone after two seasons

the other consideration is talent and fit. I'd say pretty clearly Butler comes out ahead in that area. His combination of offense and defense seems to fit the bill as best talent and fit

it might be argued that CJ is the most efficient offensive option, and certainly he is when it comes to shooting, but Butler is pretty close because of his extremely high FT rate; he gets to the line at an impressive clip and shoots a high percentage. But Butler is far superior to CJ as an offensive initiator, so I'd give him the nod in efficiency. And of course, his defense is stellar

Paul George is definitely a better 2-way player then CJ, but you have to weigh his worse offensive numbers against the value of his defense. And of course, he could end up being a 1 year rental

here's a comparison of their numbers this season:

http://bkref.com/tiny/DGbyN

so, I'd definitely trade CJ + 'more' for Butler. CJ + 'more' for George is a much closer call because of the 1-year rental worry. I think since George would be eligible for a contract extension this summer, I'd want him to agree to a 1 or 2 year extension before making the trade. IIRC, he could agree to opt out of his current deal in July 2018 and sign an extension

The problem with Jimmy Butler, is he's not very good without the ball. George would probably in all honesty fit better next to Lillard, while Butler would fit better next to CJ. Butler is really wasted if he's not handling the ball the majority of the time. In a vacuum I agree though, that Butler seems like the slightly better player. It would definitely be an awkward offensive fit though.

[Wizenheimer]

The problem with Jimmy Butler, is he's not very good without the ball. George would probably in all honesty fit better next to Lillard, while Butler would fit better next to CJ. Butler is really wasted if he's not handling the ball the majority of the time. In a vacuum I agree though, that Butler seems like the slightly better player. It would definitely be an awkward offensive fit though.

usage rate:

Paul George - 28.7
C.J. McCollum - 27.5
Jimmy Butler - 26.4

assisted FG rate:

CJ McCollum - .396
Jimmy Butler - .402
Paul George - .531

assist/36:

Jimmy Butler 5.4
C.J. McCollum 3.6
Paul George 3.3

turnover/36:

Jimmy Butler 2.0
C.J. McCollum 2.3
Paul George 3.0

assist/turnover:

Jimmy Butler 2.70
C.J. McCollum 1.56
Paul George 1.10

FT Rate:

Jimmy Butler .553
Paul George .284
C.J. McCollum .207

TS%:

C.J. McCollum .591
Jimmy Butler .581
Paul George .575


honestly, I'm not seeing enough deviation in usage and assisted FG rate between CJ and Butler to see any bad fit between Dame and Butler. If Dame and CJ can work, I'd think Dame and Butler could work. I'd also wonder who burns more shot clock during those usage numbers. I know CJ pounds the ball a lot; I'm not sure how much Butler pounds the ball, but if Butler pounds less, that might be a better fit

Who is better with the ball in their hands between CJ and Butler? Obviously, CJ is the better pure shooter but because Butler is far superior to CJ in drawing fouls and getting to the line, there is only a minor difference in TS%. On the other hand, Butler is a clearly superior playmaker and facilitator; so, adding shooting efficiency to playmaking efficiency, the overall results seems better with the ball in Butler's hands

as far as that shooting efficiency, Butler is clearly the number 1 option on the Bulls. So, I'd assume he gets the focus of opposing defenses, much like Lillard does. CJ can draft off of the attention Lillard gets. Butler has nobody on the Bulls creating that kind of wake. So, I'd anticipate his efficiency might increase on the Blazers

and of course, all that disregards the other end of the floor. Butler has been all-NBA 2nd team defense for 3 straight years. George has been 2nd team twice and 1st team once.

this is all academic anyway; if Butler or George are truly made available, other teams will be able to beat any offers Portland makes

[Norm2953]

I do think Paul George is a Laker by next summer for they could be really good with
DeAngelo Russell and Ball in their back court with Brandon Ingram, Julius Randall
and George up front with Ivica Zubac and Tarik Black at center.

Teams like Chicago which are accustomed to seeing really good basketball teams are
not going to trade their best players for anything less than Lillard.

If we move CJ, it will be for a lesser player and perhaps a future pick. Much more likely
Crabbe would eventualy be dealt than CJ.

[Roy The Natural]

The problem with Jimmy Butler, is he's not very good without the ball. George would probably in all honesty fit better next to Lillard, while Butler would fit better next to CJ. Butler is really wasted if he's not handling the ball the majority of the time. In a vacuum I agree though, that Butler seems like the slightly better player. It would definitely be an awkward offensive fit though.

usage rate:

Paul George - 28.7
C.J. McCollum - 27.5
Jimmy Butler - 26.4

assisted FG rate:

CJ McCollum - .396
Jimmy Butler - .402
Paul George - .531

assist/36:

Jimmy Butler 5.4
C.J. McCollum 3.6
Paul George 3.3

turnover/36:

Jimmy Butler 2.0
C.J. McCollum 2.3
Paul George 3.0

assist/turnover:

Jimmy Butler 2.70
C.J. McCollum 1.56
Paul George 1.10

FT Rate:

Jimmy Butler .553
Paul George .284
C.J. McCollum .207

TS%:

C.J. McCollum .591
Jimmy Butler .581
Paul George .575


honestly, I'm not seeing enough deviation in usage and assisted FG rate between CJ and Butler to see any bad fit between Dame and Butler. If Dame and CJ can work, I'd think Dame and Butler could work. I'd also wonder who burns more shot clock during those usage numbers. I know CJ pounds the ball a lot; I'm not sure how much Butler pounds the ball, but if Butler pounds less, that might be a better fit

Who is better with the ball in their hands between CJ and Butler? Obviously, CJ is the better pure shooter but because Butler is far superior to CJ in drawing fouls and getting to the line, there is only a minor difference in TS%. On the other hand, Butler is a clearly superior playmaker and facilitator; so, adding shooting efficiency to playmaking efficiency, the overall results seems better with the ball in Butler's hands

as far as that shooting efficiency, Butler is clearly the number 1 option on the Bulls. So, I'd assume he gets the focus of opposing defenses, much like Lillard does. CJ can draft off of the attention Lillard gets. Butler has nobody on the Bulls creating that kind of wake. So, I'd anticipate his efficiency might increase on the Blazers

and of course, all that disregards the other end of the floor. Butler has been all-NBA 2nd team defense for 3 straight years. George has been 2nd team twice and 1st team once.

this is all academic anyway; if Butler or George are truly made available, other teams will be able to beat any offers Portland makes

The comparison is between George and Butler... Not CJ. Butler is at his best on ball, he's not an exceptional long range shooter, and has limited value off the ball. Obviously he's a better fit than CJ in some ways. I've watched A TON of Butler, I'm not saying that the Blazers wouldn't be better off between Butler and CJ, I'm saying that there is legitimate reason, all thing being equal for preferring George as the trade target over Butler. Butler does pound the ball a bit, as well FYI. Butler is a good enough player to where I believe it's quite possible to make it work, and what he lacks in a player like CJs shooting he more than likely make up for in cutting, but I fully believe that George it a more natural fit next to Lillard.

[Roy The Natural]

I do think Paul George is a Laker by next summer for they could be really good with
DeAngelo Russell and Ball in their back court with Brandon Ingram, Julius Randall
and George up front with Ivica Zubac and Tarik Black at center.

Teams like Chicago which are accustomed to seeing really good basketball teams are
not going to trade their best players for anything less than Lillard.

If we move CJ, it will be for a lesser player and perhaps a future pick. Much more likely
Crabbe would eventualy be dealt than CJ.

I don't think there's a chance in hell that CJ is moved for a lesser player personally.

[Norm2953]

With Portland's looming cap problems, there are actually $23 Million reasons for a CJ deal
for a lesser player. It's still more likely Crabbe gets dealt.

[dunlop212]

Portland grossly overpaid for Crabbe/Leonard/Turner. Then they totally lucked into Nurkic. But there is now no way to keep him without getting rid of the toxic contracts. The best case scenario is trading assets in exchange for cap relief. Crabbe/Leonard/Turner are negative assets, so you will have to add something; picks or a plus contract or take back horrible shorter bad contracts.

[Roy The Natural]

Portland grossly overpaid for Crabbe/Leonard/Turner. Then they totally lucked into Nurkic. But there is now no way to keep him without getting rid of the toxic contracts. The best case scenario is trading assets in exchange for cap relief. Crabbe/Leonard/Turner are negative assets, so you will have to add something; picks or a plus contract or take back horrible shorter bad contracts.

Wrong.. there is a way to keep him.. a really simple way. It's called resigning him... there is no real limitation on the Blazers resigning Nurkic.

[monopoman]

Portland grossly overpaid for Crabbe/Leonard/Turner. Then they totally lucked into Nurkic. But there is now no way to keep him without getting rid of the toxic contracts. The best case scenario is trading assets in exchange for cap relief. Crabbe/Leonard/Turner are negative assets, so you will have to add something; picks or a plus contract or take back horrible shorter bad contracts.

Wrong.. there is a way to keep him.. a really simple way. It's called resigning him... there is no real limitation on the Blazers resigning Nurkic.

Yep, lets see how desperate PA is to shed salary while giving up picks to do it, before we start saying its a sure fire bet he does.

[Goldbum]

I don't think he is going to ad a pick to dump a contract.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I would not trade McCollum for Butler. Jimmy is the better player, no doubt, but his team has floundered as his responsibility has increased over the years. Their locker room turned toxic last year, and team chemistry is still not their calling card. Granted, this is a team that's been running the broken down editions of Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo out there at point and has interminable tension between team and upper management. Still, there are just enough red flags to make me nervous about Butler's suitability for a leading role on a contender (or, alternatively, his willingness to defer leadership to Lillard).

Offer 'em Crabbe or Harkless with Vonleh and some picks if they decide to blow it up and trade Butler. Let them laugh if they wish. If they can get higher picks or better prospects out of Boston, Philadelphia, or somebody else, more power to 'em, but there's reason to be skeptical that any such deals will be on the table (that reason being that no such offer has been rumored, as far as I can remember, despite hints throughout the year that Chicago would be willing to move him).

[expatbayern]

That's a pretty good group for comparison Wiz. CJ has some pretty nice offensive numbers compared to those two, but then you look at rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, etc.

Does the dynamic of the team change if you bring Butler or George in? Right now this is Dame's team and guys really seem to buy into the team concept, get together during the summer to work out, etc. Would that change with Butler or George? Is this still Dame's team? Do the guys still fall in line (so to speak) or does it become a free-for-all?

What type of filler is needed with CJ to get either player?

I think Butler could fit with the culture. Here's a profile (it's an old one; I was trying to find a similar thing I had seen written in the past year or so but couldn't track it down) talking about how he really wants to put in the work, keep developing his game, etc. I think he's the kind of blue-collar star who would take pride in defending the opponent's best wing, crashing the boards, thriving off of mismatches on offense--as others have pointed out he actually has a slightly lower usage rate and FGA/game than CJ so I think we could get him enough touches/shots as the secondary ballhandler/option to Lillard without much changing our system. The locker room clashes in Chicago seem to be more about the lack of direction from the front office (are they competing? rebuilding? running out broken-down big names just to sell tickets?) whereas here he fits right into the window and direction.

I'd try to get it done for CJ and two firsts (ours and Memphis' this year or ours this year and next), hoping to hold onto Harkless/Vonleh so we could run out Lillard/Butler/Harkless/Vonleh/Nurkic with Turner/Crabbe/Aminu/Davis/Leonard off the bench. It might take a few more moves to rebalance the roster but that's a deep and versatile group that should be solid on offense and defense and can play small or big, etc.

[Goldbum]

I'll say this right now and if I'm wrong feel free to make a sig out of it. We will not land Butler or Paul George.

[DusterBuster]

I'll say this right now and if I'm wrong feel free to make a sig out of it. We will not land Butler or Paul George.

LOL, goin' out on a ledge there eh?

[zzaj]

I'll say this right now and if I'm wrong feel free to make a sig out of it. We will not land Butler or Paul George.

LOL, goin' out on a ledge there eh?

Ha, yeah...I brought it up because it's the exact kind of move that I think Olshey should be trying to make happen. I think there is about a 1% chance that PG or JB will actually be in a Blazer uniform next season.

[Wizenheimer]

The comparison is between George and Butler... Not CJ. .

you said Butler wouldn't fit well next to Dame

I was pointing out that Butler's usage rate is lower then CJ's and his assisted FG rate is higher. So the on-the-ball/off-the-ball issue at least means Butler would fit as well as CJ does. Then, factor in his size, length, and defense, and it sure looks like Butler would fit 'better' then CJ as a SG in several ways


Butler vs George? I think Butler is the better player with a little higher upside, but it's close. As I said earlier, it's all mostly fantasy because I don't believe Portland would be able to land either. I'm not even sure if either of them are available

[RoyalWun]

Funny we are having this discussion about PG (and I know I know I know it's never a good thing to use this) but my 2k roster actually has
Dame/Roberson/George/Vonleh/Nurkic.

I try to keep it a bit realistic and never do any outrageous trades. But traded CJ+Harkless+Top 10 Protected 1st for George+Jefferson (I think they were just trying to get rid of him but there was a team option).

[Tim Lehrbach]

That's a pretty good group for comparison Wiz. CJ has some pretty nice offensive numbers compared to those two, but then you look at rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, etc.

Does the dynamic of the team change if you bring Butler or George in? Right now this is Dame's team and guys really seem to buy into the team concept, get together during the summer to work out, etc. Would that change with Butler or George? Is this still Dame's team? Do the guys still fall in line (so to speak) or does it become a free-for-all?

What type of filler is needed with CJ to get either player?

I think Butler could fit with the culture. Here's a profile (it's an old one; I was trying to find a similar thing I had seen written in the past year or so but couldn't track it down) talking about how he really wants to put in the work, keep developing his game, etc. I think he's the kind of blue-collar star who would take pride in defending the opponent's best wing, crashing the boards, thriving off of mismatches on offense--as others have pointed out he actually has a slightly lower usage rate and FGA/game than CJ so I think we could get him enough touches/shots as the secondary ballhandler/option to Lillard without much changing our system. The locker room clashes in Chicago seem to be more about the lack of direction from the front office (are they competing? rebuilding? running out broken-down big names just to sell tickets?) whereas here he fits right into the window and direction.

Well, my reservations as expressed in the post before yours notwithstanding, this is certainly a valid POV. Were the Blazers to go ahead and move CJ++ for Butler, I'd optimistically adopt this perspective too.