Rumor: Hinrich to Blazers

[Wizenheimer]

last season on a per36 basis, outlaw shot a better FG% and a better 3pt%. Outlaw was a better rebounder. They were equal in assists, but outlaw had far fewer turnovers. Outlaw blocked more shots, and more then doubled Nocioni in steals. He may be a little better on the defensive end, but I think that's debatable.

I understand if you just want outlaw gone, but to take on a lesser player then him that also destroys the cap-space plan is a bad idea.

This is just a ridiculously biased paragraph. Come on now. Shot a better FG%?? .433 to .432 Yeah, , you win that one. Wow, what a better shooter. 6.2 rebounds to 6.1. Yep, better rebounder. "FAR FEWER" turnovers equals .6 TOs per game. Per 36 minutes, that's not FAR FEWER. Outlaw shot better from 3. Nocioni was abetter FT shooter. Better ball defender. So, to try to make your point, you go to per/36 #s, but you don't tell anyone what those numbers are, you just say one is better than the other, because the actual difference is so small, it really isn't a difference. What's .001 percentage points on a FG for the year? One more missed shot? Maybe two? That's just wrong, and a very weak attempt at proving a point.
Nocioni also got to the lime more times per game than Outlaw, and shot a FAR greater percentage than outlaw. I liek Outlaw, and I am not saying Nocioni is head and shoulders better. you factor in age, salary, and I prefer Outlaw more. But to go about it this way to try to prove your point is fairly pathetic.

what's pathetic is maintaining that Nocioni is a better option then Outlaw, or Webster for that matter, considering the options portland has. I've watched Nocioni play several times, and he's just not any significant kind of upgrade at the SF position. And that's without taking into consideration his contract. Once that's factored in, there's really no logical reason to suggest that having nocioni on the same team that already has webster, outlaw, and batum, (not to mention roy and rudy) is better then having cap-space. IMO, it's just a bad idea...it doesn't make sense.

As to the stats I pointed out, you missed the point, which is surprising because it wasn't an obtuse one. That would be: why in hell make a move for a player that is not arguably better, and perhaps arguably worse, then the one you already have at 1/2 the salary and 1/4 of the total contract. Especially considering, that this non-upgrade of a position wipes out any hope of a once in a decade opportunity for cap-space.

[SabasRevenge!]

Next summer, we'll have a salary of around 35M, not including Frye and Diogu. Blake, Outlaw, and Lafrentz for Hinrich, Nocioni, and the TE (if necessary) still puts us under 45M next summer with Hinrich and Nocioni. This year, the cap is about 59M. Who knows what it will be next year. We would still have roughly 14M under the cap.

Nobody that will be a UFA will take 14M and IMO we're much more likely to land someone via a S&T than by outright signing a UFA. Cap space comes in handy for S&T, but with salaries going out, I doubt we'd need more than 10M to complete any deal.

I don't think the cap space will be used for signing UFAs because there aren't any attractive names on the market next year. Maybe if PHX terminates Nash's contract I guess...

Again, I'm not saying Nocioni is a more talented player than Outlaw, but the most talented guy isn't always the best player or, more importantly, the best fit. I think Nocioni could be a terrific fit on the Blazers and he, like Hinrich, has a declining contract that ends at 6.65M while Hinrich's ends at 8M. Not bad.

Furthermore, I don't think every move has to be for an "upgrade." I would argue that we already have the main ingredients in Rudy, Roy, Oden, and Aldridge pretty well set. There is some very nice talent waiting in the wings in Batum and Bayless, along with a guy who could be a long term solution at SF in Webster. Right now, I'd be more concerned with building a cohesive whole rather than piling more talent onto an already talented roster with a crunch for minutes and hints of discontent.

[Wizenheimer]

Look, I'm not suggesting that Nocioni has greater value than Outlaw, but I do think he's be a better cog in our machine.

As cucad pointed out, your comparison suggesting that Outlaw is better than Nocioni in pretty much every possible way neglects some important information.

Nocioni made 126 3P in 2021 minutes compared to 40 makes for Outlaw in 2186 minutes. Aside from Nocioni's greater defensive effectiveness, I've also got to consider his long term value to a team. Last summer, Outlaw suggested that he would like 15 shots per game. That's not going to happen. He's taking about 10 with Webster due back soon. Nocioni is a <10 shot, around a 24MPG guy who knows his role. Outlaw may blow up somewhere else and I'm not suggesting this trade now, but it may be a great trade around the deadline and possibly soon after Webster returns, especially if Martell sees a slight increase over his 28MPG from last year.

Maybe Outlaw will accept his role as a 7th or 8th man on this squad. If he doesn't, we'll need to move him.

OK...I'm sorry about this, but your argument is really not making any sense to me at all. Maybe that's because I'm missing something.

First of all, the suggested trade was Lafrentz & Blake for Hinrich & Nocioni. So Portland still has all the SF's you're analyzing plus nocioni. Next, you seem to be basing part of your argument against outlaw on one "quote" from a Jason Quick article that Quick himself later said was taken completely out of context. Outlaw is averaging 10 shots a game this year and I haven't heard about him complaining yet. Have you? If you haven't, then it would seem...to be fair...your assertion that Nocioni would know his "role" when outlaw wouldn't, is completely baseless.

Next, you bring Martell into the equation, and you seem to suggest that Martell would be the starter while Nocioni would be playing fewer minutes. I have a hard time believing the blazers would trade for a backup SF with a salary of 8 million, when their other 2 backups (outlaw & batum) in the case of webster starting, have a combined salary of less then 5.1 million.

On the other hand, if you peg Nocioni as the starter, then you're getting into the argument of who would be the better bench player: outlaw or webster. We know that outlaw is an effective bench player. Quite effective actually. Furthermore, we know that outlaw can backup both forward positions, something webster can't do, and that outlaw's ability to play backup PF could be important if Frye continues to play poorly and is not on the team next season. We don't even know if webster can play backup SG, he hasn't demonstrated the necessary ball-handling for that position to this point. Finally, with Nocioni as the starter, Batum will have a much better opportunity for playing time if webster is traded rather then outlaw.

In other words, it make no sense to trade for Nocioni so he can be a bench player. And if he's wanted as a starter, then a good case could be made for webster's departure rather then outlaw's.

I'm barely on board the Hinrich bus. I'm only there tepidly because I just don't see any realistic options for a PG upgrade, and even though Hinrich is flawed, he's a bit better then blake. But because the blazers could add hinrich and still maintain a substantial and viable cap-space option, I'm ok with the idea. But adding nocioni to the deal kills it in my view. Hinrich is a marginal upgrade at PG, but Nocioni is no upgrade at SF. Portland would be better served waiting for the leverage their cap-space would give.

[NBAMAN2006]

I am not totally against Nocoini, but unlike Kirk I would rather play the 'wait and see' game in regards to our SF position. I think that the possibility of S&T for Turk, or even doing a Camby like deal for a SF, is worth waiting and avoiding Noc.

The reason I am not willing to 'wait and see' regarding PG is simple. Kirk is going to be the best PG avaliable, and is a absolute tremendous fit because he can...

(1) Play great alongside Roy. Perfect mix of playing w/o the ball and initiating the offense.
(2) Seems like a great fit in our offensive, slow down scheme.
(3) Just straight up seems like a 'Nate' player. Gives his all on D, doesnt take stupid shots, wont wine, tough. If Nate could build a PG, I think he would look similar to Kirk.

[JD45]

I am not totally against Nocoini, but unlike Kirk I would rather play the 'wait and see' game in regards to our SF position. I think that the possibility of S&T for Turk, or even doing a Camby like deal for a SF, is worth waiting and avoiding Noc.

The reason I am not willing to 'wait and see' regarding PG is simple. Kirk is going to be the best PG avaliable, and is a absolute tremendous fit because he can...

(1) Play great alongside Roy. Perfect mix of playing w/o the ball and initiating the offense.
(2) Seems like a great fit in our offensive, slow down scheme.
(3) Just straight up seems like a 'Nate' player. Gives his all on D, doesnt take stupid shots, wont wine, tough. If Nate could build a PG, I think he would look similar to Kirk.

Pretty much states my position as well. Nocioni is a quality player. I would be fine with him join the Blazers, but don't think he is significantly better than Outlaw/Webster. Deng would be different, or even Battier.

But Kirk is valuable. The Devin Harris ship has sailed. I just don't see another potentially available PG who would be better. And Kirk would be a clear upgrade over Blake.

[Wizenheimer]

Next summer, we'll have a salary of around 35M, not including Frye and Diogu. Blake, Outlaw, and Lafrentz for Hinrich, Nocioni, and the TE (if necessary) still puts us under 45M next summer with Hinrich and Nocioni. This year, the cap is about 59M. Who knows what it will be next year. We would still have roughly 14M under the cap.

the actual number would be around 48.2 million, not 45 million (I added it up on page 3 of this thread if you're interested)

Then there would be two cap-holds for the roster spots necessary to get portland to 12 players (10 players listed) So call it a team salary of 50 million

It's possible the salary cap next year could drop because of the economy. Some are suggesting it will. So portland's cap-space in this scenario could be as low as 7 million...little more then the MLE.

Nobody that will be a UFA will take 14M and IMO we're much more likely to land someone via a S&T than by outright signing a UFA. Cap space comes in handy for S&T, but with salaries going out, I doubt we'd need more than 10M to complete any deal.

yeah, but you just traded away blake and outlaw, 2 players that will have incredibly attractive expiring contracts to package with cap-space. And both of those players would have good value this summer as well. As a matter of fact, it's usually the case that 3 or 4 teams will have good-sized TPE's heading into the draft. If KP wants to clear some extra space or swing a big draft day deal, the 4 million salary of blake and the 3.6 million salary of outlaw, along with draft picks and impending cap-space will give KP incredible leverage. I really think KP's history suggests he could work some magic with those kinds of trading chips, and i don't think it's coincidence that he has 5 draft picks in the draft immediately preceding his cap-space summer.

I don't think the cap space will be used for signing UFAs because there aren't any attractive names on the market next year. Maybe if PHX terminates Nash's contract I guess...

it is a pretty bare FA market, however, I'm thinking that Hedo Turkoglu would be a great acquisition and he's very likely to be UFA. Portland needs another ball-handler to intitiate offense and take the burden off Roy, Hedo could do that pretty well.

Again, I'm not saying Nocioni is a more talented player than Outlaw, but the most talented guy isn't always the best player or, more importantly, the best fit. I think Nocioni could be a terrific fit on the Blazers and he, like Hinrich, has a declining contract that ends at 6.65M while Hinrich's ends at 8M. Not bad

If Nocioni would be a "terrific fit", then that almost has to mean the webster experiment has failed. Noc is paid too much to be a bench player. If you were saying to trade webster instead of outlaw, I could see your logic. Weren't you the one who mentioned redundancy? Noc and Webster would be redundant. Noc, Outlaw and Batum would not be.

Furthermore, I don't think every move has to be for an "upgrade." I would argue that we already have the main ingredients in Rudy, Roy, Oden, and Aldridge pretty well set. There is some very nice talent waiting in the wings in Batum and Bayless, along with a guy who could be a long term solution at SF in Webster. Right now, I'd be more concerned with building a cohesive whole rather than piling more talent onto an already talented roster with a crunch for minutes and hints of discontent.

again...if you see webster as the long-term solution, it makes no sense to go for nocioni.

[Butter]

Wiz, I'm starting to think that you have a man crush on Turkoglu. You must have memorized how to spell his name, I always have to double check.

Anyways, I do like the idea of having a point-forward who can help initiate the offense. However, how do you feel about his perimeter defense? I realize that there aren't going to be any perfect players, but the Blazers perimeter defense is already a concern. Obviously Greg will help shore up the team defense, but it'd be nice to have someone who could help limit the other teams 3's.

Getting back on topic (finally Butter), Hinrich seems like he'll be a slight defensive upgrade, so maybe that'll help some?

[NBAMAN2006]

I agree with Whiz about Turk. The thing is, I seriously doubt we just straight up sign him rather than S&T for him. Lets say we got Kirk for the rumored deal, then outright signed Turk this summer, our roster would look like...

PG- Kirk/Blake/Bayless
SG- Roy/Rudy
SF- Turk/Webster/Batum
PF- LMA/Outlaw
C- Greg/Joel

What I dislike about that rotation is it basically puts Batum on the bench for the next 3-5 years, and if he overtakes Webster it means we have a 5M a year 3rd string SF. It also gives us 5 guys who will demand 30+mpg and a 6th in Kirk who may also do so. Its really a tough situation. I would hate to deal Webster, but I think it would almost make more sense, rotation wise, to make a deal something like Webster, Blake, Frye, pick for Turk. Its overpaying, but it really cleans up the roster glut and ensures Batum, our 2nd best defender, gets some quality burn. As of right now, even as a huge Webster fan, I think Batum is more vauble and needs to be on the court more. If we made a trade like that, we could have a nice and clean roster...

PG- Kirk 25mpg
SG- Roy 35mpg
SF- Turk 30mpg
PF- LMA 35mpg
C- Oden 32mpg

6th- Rudy 30mpg
7th- Outlaw 20mpg
8th- Batum 18mpg
9th- Joel 15mpg

Still leaves no room for Bayless, but its a excellent 9 man rotation. Sad thing is, I can already hear Outlaw bitching.

Sorry if this kinda thread hijacked...

[Wizenheimer]

Wiz, I'm starting to think that you have a man crush on Turkoglu. You must have memorized how to spell his name, I always have to double check.

Anyways, I do like the idea of having a point-forward who can help initiate the offense. However, how do you feel about his perimeter defense? I realize that there aren't going to be any perfect players, but the Blazers perimeter defense is already a concern. Obviously Greg will help shore up the team defense, but it'd be nice to have someone who could help limit the other teams 3's.

Getting back on topic (finally Butter), Hinrich seems like he'll be a slight defensive upgrade, so maybe that'll help some?

yeah, I know. I've mentioned him too much I'm sure. I just arrived at the conclusion that portland really needs one more player capable of initiating the offense and he seems to be about the best that will realistically be available. And he sure seems to be a lot better option then Nocioni

As far as his defense, I'd say it's so-so at best. His length does tend to make up for some of his deficiencies. And I like the notion of a Hedo/Batum SF rotation.

you're right though, he's not perfect. But he's probably closer to perfect as a SF then Hinrich is as a PG. Damned with faint praise I guess.

[SabasRevenge!]

Nocioni would come off the bench and I figured Webster would start. It was just a different twist on the Hinrich trade, didn't mean to offend anyone.

I guess I just don't see all of these guys being content over the long haul and I'm interested in bringing in guys who may be great role players. If it means taking a hit on talent for the sake of chemistry and winning, so be it.

[Wizenheimer]

Nocioni would come off the bench and I figured Webster would start. It was just a different twist on the Hinrich trade, didn't mean to offend anyone.

I guess I just don't see all of these guys being content over the long haul and I'm interested in bringing in guys who may be great role players. If it means taking a hit on talent for the sake of chemistry and winning, so be it.

I'm pretty hard to offend...even when cucad says I'm pathetic

I guess you've pointed out well what I'm having trouble with: replacing the webster-outlaw-batum trio with a webster-nocioni-batum trio. I honestly think the current blazer trio complements each other better then the projected trio. And I've seen nothing to suggest that either trio would be any more or less content over the long haul.

If you think Nocioni would fit better, fine. I see some logic to that with him as the starter. But I just don't agree that he would be a better fit as a bench player then outlaw, and of course there's the issue of his contract.

[BamBam8]

I don't think the cap space will be used for signing UFAs because there aren't any attractive names on the market next year. Maybe if PHX terminates Nash's contract I guess.

You know I never thought about that. They might try to sign him this year before a lot of teams lose out on the Lebron sweepstakes.

Maybe we could sweep in and grab him.

[Effigy]

I bring up Turkoglu a fair amount also. He's the guy I consider the main target if we sign somebody, but we might trade, so it's hard to know. I agree with Wiz that I like the way that Hedo facilitates the offense. You could easily have Bayless as your starting pg with Roy and Hedo on the floor handling the bulk of the ball handling jobs. Jerryd brings the ball up and mans up on the opposing point guard, Hedo and Brandon initiate the offense. I think that will work spectacularily well.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Hinrich is a clear upgrade over any present Blazer PG.
Blake + Frye + Diogu = HInrich.

Frye and/or Outlaw is short term.
Diogu would probably be waived and could be reacquired, though it's not crucial.
Blake ... is a good backup, but will be beaten out by both Sergio and Bayless. Might as well capitalize now.

[jumpman28]

In my opinion, unless you are planning on making a big splash in free agency at SF, this would be good.

The FA pool for point guards really doesn't look all that appealing to me.

Point guards

Now looking realistically at who is or will be available on that list, Hinrich is about as good as you are going to get without giving up a core piece. And you almost certainly won't be able to get Rubio without giving up a core piece either.

I think a change of scenery would probably be great for him, especially since he seems like he would be a good fit. He is still fairly young basketball-wise at 27. He's obviously not an all-star PG, but he's more than a "marginal" upgrade. He is as fierce of a competitor as you are going to find, at times almost too fierce(temper). He is a leader, but in my opinion Roy is far better because at times you wonder with Hinrich's temperment, if he will lose his composure. I don't believe hes a primadonna who will demand too many minutes. Also even though he had a down year with that train-wreck of a team last year, that it was just a fluke...and he would excel in the right situation.

If Bayless is "the guy," that you are looking to be your future starting PG..then he should at least be getting the backup PG minutes right now...if he can't fit that role, chances are he won't be the answer at starting PG in the future. The cases of players just suddenly developing into great players over the span of 1 or 2 years is few and far between. Though I definitely do see it from the point of view that a developed Bayless would probably compliment the starting unit just as well or possibly better than Hinrich would, since Bayless is obviously more physically and athletically talented. He could be a one man fast break much like Harris or Barbosa, not to mention the fact that his speed will make him a much better slasher.

All in all, if you are looking for the best point guard that is realistically available then I would have to think that Hinrich would have to be near the top of the list. He almost certainly has lesser value to the Bulls coming from an off-year and now playing behind Derrick Rose. And although I think it's been mentioned a couple hundred times...Hinrich's contract is front loaded and therefore gets smaller each year. I am also torn on whether if you do this deal to do it sooner than later, if you do it sooner you get a chance to see if Bayless can make some noise in the rotation, but on the other hand if you do it and he can't it could be the difference in making the playoffs or missing them in the tough Western Conference.

Of course this entire long post is just my opinion.