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Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch

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Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#1 » by Kings2013 » Mon Feb 2, 2015 10:30 pm

In January kid is shooting .382 from the field and .254 from three..

In the game threads I have voiced my concerns.. After a quality start under Malone, which had most of us raving about his development and believing he was solidly the future SG of this franchise, some of the same concerns from his rookie year are starting to be raised.. Will he bounce back, to being a serviceable, starting caliber SG like we all would like to believe? did he just have a fortunate start to the season, and we still are in needs of solutions at the position?

I still think the kid has developed a lot from his rookie season. His ball handling, defense, and his percentages have made a jump from his rookie to his sophomore season, and I anticipate that he will bounce back and start giving us confidence again in his future.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#2 » by Andrew McCeltic » Mon Feb 2, 2015 10:51 pm

He's young, inconsistency is normal. It's obvious he's not a dominant superstar, but guys like Billups and Joe Johnson had rocky starts to their careers and became all-star caliber. I still want the Celtics to trade for him.. The big concern about him for me is the percentage of his field goals that are assisted, and it confirms the eye test that he gets most of his looks as a third or fourth option teams leave open.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#3 » by SacKingZZZ » Tue Feb 3, 2015 12:29 am

The shooting percentage is worrisome, but I've brought this up before, how many games did Cousins play in december again? 6. Just sayin'.

But yeah, he's probably hitting a bit of a wall. Considering he takes less than 9 shots a game but plays starters minutes it's going to be hard for someone like him to fight through it and get solidified into that role player model. You usually see seasoned vets in the position he's in now and he's done an admirable job considering his limited experience.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#4 » by Kings2013 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:10 pm

Ben has been slipping

Just when we thought the door was solidified on the future of that SG position with Bens good start, he has looked bad at times on both ends since the new year.

I was not high on him last year, and he brought me in at the beginning of this year, and now he is making me question his future again.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#5 » by bleeds_purple » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:18 am

Given the recent changeover you can expect everyone's stats to regress. Ben needs to go into this off-season with a hard-work mentality. If he can repeat his improvements from last year we will have a solid SG for years to come. All of the physical tools are there - he just needs to put in the long hours.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#6 » by teerfour+40LG » Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:06 pm

He and the whole team have regressed defensively. Offensively, he's been more aggressive since Karl got here, but unfortunately it's dumb aggression.

Right now, Ben doesn't really read the game at an NBA level.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#7 » by ICMTM » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:28 pm

teerfour+40LG wrote:Right now, Ben doesn't really read the game at an NBA level.


If he ever does I still believe he can be great. I don't think with BMac it's about physical ability as he has all the tools.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#8 » by teerfour+40LG » Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:48 pm

ICMTM wrote:
teerfour+40LG wrote:Right now, Ben doesn't really read the game at an NBA level.


If he ever does I still believe he can be great. I don't think with BMac it's about physical ability as he has all the tools.

Doesn't seem likely, does it? Most players that get it got it from the beginning.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#9 » by ICMTM » Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:09 am

I'd really say it's been coaching. If this stint with Karl doesn't work I'd say he's done. I feel he can be an all star still. Slight optimism and a flip flop on opinion.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#10 » by Kings2013 » Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:46 pm

At this rate I think I'm on the side of Ben not being the long term answer. I heard he was slightly injured last night, but his play, consistency, reliability hasn't been there. The fact that he still doesnt have a complete game (rebounding,assists), the lack of BBIQ and game awareness, don't know if this gets better. I don't know if we can continue the experiment another year, but we do have some holes elsewhere
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#11 » by SacKingZZZ » Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:25 pm

Ben has some serious potential, but the question of whether or not he can get an opportunity to display that talent on an every game basis isn't going to go away any time soon. You're asking him to be everything a rookie score first player isn't. With that said I give a ton of credit to Ben for improving so much in so many areas from his first to his second year. He's doing a pretty good job at times faking a veteran game.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#12 » by Kings2013 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:31 am

I'm now not on his side, but either way it's my preference that we're not having this conversation a year from now where Ben is hanging around the nether of teasing the fanbase with "potential"

We have a three year window with Cousins/Gay. I think this is the time where in good faith Ben is going to show whether or not he can be relied on. Results have been underwhelming under Karl so far, and if it continues like this I can't see Karl planning to remain with him starting in stone and not getting personnel at SG

Such a sad ending to the year for him. I really thought we had something with this kid. Now I'm more confident in Nik. Quite a turn around
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#13 » by blind prophet » Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:36 am

Expect this with most of drafted players who are as young as he is.

He is leaps and bound better than day 1.

Nik may finish like Ben did last season, or may regress to nothing, who knows.

Ben has had Ray setting him up for awhile, ball dominant Rudy and Cousins to share the ball with, and a pf for the most part has not been able to score much at all making it easier to rotate on defense.

I'm not sure why you are in a hurry here, our roster is horrible in a variety of ways, if your going to be patient with anyone may as well be him and Nik.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#14 » by Kings2013 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:43 pm

Aside from November/December the kid has just been bad and not really showing adequate signs of progression IMO. There is a poll at an unnamed popular Kings fan site in the recent game thread about this, the majority agree that as of now Ben probably won't be the starter.

It's going to come down to priorities this summer. We are not going to have infinite resources to turn over some of the roster. So it could be that management allows Ben another year if they see higher needs. For me personally I think JT can be counted on for steadier minutes with this core,so I'm slowly seeing SG as a bigger need. We'll see though, and I'd love for Ben to finish out the season stronger and give me a better frame of mind
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#15 » by teerfour+40LG » Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:19 pm

Kings2013 wrote:For me personally I think JT can be counted on for steadier minutes with this core,so I'm slowly seeing SG as a bigger need.


I am glad you are seeing this now because I showed this last offseason.

BUT he was playing competently with Darren Collison at the helm, so I think he made some improvements. That means I want to blame most of this on Ray McCallum and Sessions.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#16 » by Kings2013 » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:26 am

The phrase that describes Ben is straddling the line. It's what he does and what he is. Constantly walking that line of tolerating his growth and wanting to replace him, never quite dipping to either category

At this point do you let him develop another year? I think 51/49 the new FO will give him another year to start. He has improved upon things, but will he ever be a good starter? Stay tuned
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#17 » by KF10 » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:58 am

I think BMac is an important piece moving forward. As long as he shows improvement next season like he did from his first to second year, I would be happy. We will have a better look what Ben is really made of next season, imo.

That said, if BMac were to be included in a deal i.e. with lotto pick, I expect a damn good haul in return.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#18 » by City of Trees » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:07 am

If Ben keeps improving each year its not far fetched to project him as a top 10-15 SG in 5 years given his age and the current situation at SG around the league
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#19 » by Fola314 » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:13 pm

If we can upgrade on BMac I think we should, move him to the bench, let him play 20-25 mins and earn back his job if he can. Eye test tells me he's an average defender and a bad passer. 43%FG/36% 3pt this season is not good, not terrible. 1.6ast/1.7TOs sucks. In his defense, his role is basically shooter, but if we can grab Wesley Matthews, Brandon Knight, or maybe even Danny Green in free agency it would help a lot IMO.
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Re: Ben's statistical regression over the last stretch 

Post#20 » by SacKingZZZ » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:33 pm

If you can upgrade that spot, yes, you do it. And by upgrade that might even mean an actual downgrade in overall talent. This team could use someone more physical at that spot if they intend on playing smaller moving forward. Ben is a good sized SG but he won't be as effective in the switch defense compared to a heavier and bulkier player in the overall scheme of things.

Worst case he might be a decent off the bench spark type.

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