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The biggest reason KOC has Sheppard at #1 is because KOC is an idiot.

If I’m the Spurs I’m still taking Topic over Sheppard. I think he has lower bust potential and would be an even better pairing for Wemby.

Any similarities to Kennard outside of being white, not long, and a great shooter? Honest question as I haven’t seen much of him.

So Reed is currently sitting at 11.5 BPM, outstanding production for a freshman, currently in tied 8th position since 2008 behind Zion, AD, Beasley, Chet, KAT and Mobley. He's now tied with Harden for 8th, so, currently in a tie for best freshman guard BPM since 2008.

We have pretty solid history of freshman BPM being a useful projection tool for draft prospects.

In the last 10 years (since 2014), there has been 47 freshman 6'2+ who have registered an 8+BPM (40%+ mins played). Out of those 46, 39 (84.7%) are currently on nba rosters, only Josh Jackson, Gary Clark, Jontay Porter, Stanley Johnson, Justice Winslow, Vernon Carey Jr, Jahlil Okafor are not.

Conversely, in that same 10 year span, we have 2133 (6'2+, 40+% mins played) players that registered sub 3 BPM as freshman, 30 of which are currently playing in the NBA, so 1.4% of those players.

Now, if we continue to look at the last 10 years, 24 freshman have been drafted in the first round with an 8 BPM and 10%+ ast rate. A sub 10% ast rate is indicative of largely off ball players, typically wing shooters or rim running bigs.

So let's look at the list of freshman who had outstanding production in on ball and offensive creation roles.

1. Zion
2. Chet
3. Kat
4. Mobley
5. Lonzo
6. Brandon Miller
7. Dlo
8. Embiid
9. WCJ
10. Trae
11. Jabari Smith
12. Ayton
13. Simmons
14. Zhaire Smith
15. Winslow
16. Jamal Murray
17. Tyus Jones
18. Fultz
19. Josh Jackson
20. Suggs
21. Stanley Johnson
22. Booker
23. SGA
24. Herro

Lets break down this list into tiers

MVP Candidates/Superstars
Embiid
SGA
Booker

Allstars/Past Allstars
KAT
Simmons
DLO
Trae

Borderline all stars / future all stars
Zion Williamson
Jamal Murray
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley

Starters/ impact players
Herro
Suggs
Ayton
WCJ
Lonzo
Tyus Jones

TBD
Miller
Jabari

Busts
Zhaire Smith
Stanley Johnson
Justice Winslow
Josh Jackson

Weird injury
Fultz

So, at least from my own assessment, we have :

11/22 (excluding Miller and Jabari as its too early to say) = between superstar and borderline all star
6/22 = starters/impact players
4/21 = busts
1/21 = freak injury

Essentially, 17/22 (77%) are somewhere on the spectrum of superstar to starters/impact players.

All four of the busts failed primarily because they can’t shoot, all four are 31% or below career 3pt shooters and below 75% career ft shooters as wings, and then Fultz is Fultz.

I think we can safely assume Reed won't bust due to shooting ineptitude, and with that in mind we have 10 years worth of data to suggest it''s very likely, given his freshman production, that Reed becomes an impactful nba player at the least.

As far as his draft range, the average pick for this list of 24 players is 5.2.
I think its certainly justifiable to have Reed in the top 5 based just on recent history

The Moose wrote:So Reed is currently sitting at 11.5 BPM, outstanding production for a freshman, currently in tied 8th position since 2008 behind Zion, AD, B

Great post moose. Clearly a very high floor on Sheppard.

In this particular draft class without any clear top prospects hes the guy I want the most for the Pistons if we dont trade the pick. I'm just a sucker for high basketball IQ shooters. Even with his lack of athleticism and size with Cade being 6'6 and Ausar(if he can get that 3pter plz) out there I think he will be just fine.

BAMAFREAK wrote:Any similarities to Kennard outside of being white, not long, and a great shooter? Honest question as I haven’t seen much of him.

Not a bad comp but Reed gives you a lot more defensively and as a playmaker/shooter. I also like Reed's potential at attacking and breaking down a defense [Driving] and finishing with a floater/through contact or kicking the ball out to a shooter.

Reed simply has more juice than Kennard overall.

Think Reed is kind of FVV-y. Particularly on defense. Uses great hands and anticipation to make up for the size limitations

tmorgan wrote:The biggest reason KOC has Sheppard at #1 is because KOC is an idiot.

And who are you?

crows2 wrote:If I’m the Spurs I’m still taking Topic over Sheppard. I think he has lower bust potential and would be an even better pairing for Wemby.

I'm taking Dillingham

Hal14 wrote:

tmorgan wrote:The biggest reason KOC has Sheppard at #1 is because KOC is an idiot.

And who are you?

KOC is going to have to dig himself out of the Killian Hayes hole he dug himself into.

Hal14 wrote:

tmorgan wrote:The biggest reason KOC has Sheppard at #1 is because KOC is an idiot.

And who are you?

Your sig is hilarious.

crows2 wrote:If I’m the Spurs I’m still taking Topic over Sheppard. I think he has lower bust potential and would be an even better pairing for Wemby.

Wrong on both accounts.
If Topic's shooting doesn't pan out he's back in Serbia after his rookie deal ends, whether I bet Reed at minimum will be a solid role player.
Spurs also need shooting, shooting, and more shooting so Reed is the far better fit.

Spurs might be able to get Reed and Topic.

awfully quiet around here after embarrassing losses. All of their pros and cons were on full display so if you haven't watched them much this is a good game to do so.

Ummm.....

Sheppard was struggling big time to get by his defender and Dillingham is a future sixth man

Terrible performance from both.

Oh man, as a Sheppard fan that was horrendous lmao

That performance from Sheppard was concerning, I get nerves from a freshman in his first tournament game, and the missed shots and lack of aggressiveness were pretty bad but not the main thing, it was that he just looked physically outmatched by dudes who in their own right are nowhere near the level of NBA level athletes.

I do think there's a baseline level of athletic competency you need to succeed in the NBA and despite the shooting ability and defensive BBIQ I'm not sure if Shepperd is over it.

Calipari is one of the worst coaches in college really. Tourney games should be ignored in terms of scouting.

Reed is still a top 5 picks, Dilly a top 8.

One tournament game…let’s not make the same mistake we made with Derrick Williams