Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft

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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#61 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 28, 2010 9:56 am

John Doe [MIN] wrote:He's not top 5 because he's not a two way player. Two numbers should tell you about everything you need to know: TS%: .562, Usage Rate 16.2%. So even though he gets used on offense no more often than the classic "stand by the rim, hope for a dunk opportunity" center, his True Shooting Percentage is 4-5% lower than what those types of players regularly put up.

And what's more, he's not a center. Teams get away with no offense centers because that's all that's available. By contrast, power forward is arguably the most offensively stacked position in the league, which means a no-offense PF will be outperformed by a greater proportion of his competition than would a similarly talented defensive specialist at any other position. Hopefully people can follow that logic.

Lastly, he'd absolutely be on an entirely lower tier from both Favors and Davis. Favors and Davis are the 1st or 2nd options on their teams. Ibaka is less efficient as his team's 4th or 5th option. That's the difference between them as prospects. And as a side note about Favors, I've now had people tell me that he's A) not as big as advertised B) not as athletic as advertised C) unskilled D) not being fed easy buckets by his guards. How exactly is a short, fat, unskilled, un-set-up player putting up the numbers he did?

-ibaka is not a 2 way player, yet, but he has shown signs of being able to take advantage of whatever opportunities that are presented. his jumpshot in particular looks very good. about half his attempts are jumpshots and he converts them at a very good rate (46% eFG). what ibaka also has over favors is his activity level. he's very active and moves with a purpose. contrast that with favors who, when he doesnt get his touches looks meandering with his low energy level.
-even if serge's reduced to being a jumpshooting garbageman, who runs the floor well and is also utilized in pick n roll situations, that would still be enough to be productive offensively. just look at noah, he's able to put up double digits on energy and activity alone. now imagine if noah had a real jumpshot.

-how about you back up your claim that favors is MUCH more skilled offensively? what is he good at on that end of the floor?
-if ibaka played college ball he'd be a #1 or 2 option as well.
-favors will NOT be an offensive force in the NBA. hes' too robotic and he does not show good post instincts (gaining/ holding position, lack of moves, lack of off-hand, no ability to pass out of post, slow to react, poor ball skills/limited face-up ability, etc)
-ibaka is NOT absolutely a lower tier than favors nor davis. you're comparing ibaka being a raw, but rotational player in the NBA to a college player who is bigger, stronger and more athletic than just about anyone he faces. that will NOT be the case in the NBA. furthermore, even while being bigger and stronger than the overwhelming majority of his opponents, favors' numbers werent even that impressive. guys like wally judge or mason plumlee couldve put up those type of numbers if they were given a similar role.

your hyperbole isnt helping your case. favors is neither short, fat nor un-athletic (although his athleticism is SEVERELY overrated by scouts, especially when projected to the next level), but he is unskilled with limited potential offensively...who also doesnt have the defensive potential that ibaka has.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#62 » by John Doe [MIN] » Wed Apr 28, 2010 10:59 am

ManualRam wrote:-ibaka is not a 2 way player, yet, but he has shown signs of being able to take advantage of whatever opportunities that are presented. his jumpshot in particular looks very good. about half his attempts are jumpshots and he converts them at a very good rate (46% eFG). what ibaka also has over favors is his activity level. he's very active and moves with a purpose. contrast that with favors who, when he doesnt get his touches looks meandering with his low energy level.
-even if serge's reduced to being a jumpshooting garbageman, who runs the floor well and is also utilized in pick n roll situations, that would still be enough to be productive offensively. just look at noah, he's able to put up double digits on energy and activity alone. now imagine if noah had a real jumpshot.

-how about you back up your claim that favors is MUCH more skilled offensively? what is he good at on that end of the floor?
-if ibaka played college ball he'd be a #1 or 2 option as well.
-favors will NOT be an offensive force in the NBA. hes' too robotic and he does not show good post instincts (gaining/ holding position, lack of moves, lack of off-hand, no ability to pass out of post, slow to react, poor ball skills/limited face-up ability, etc)
-ibaka is NOT absolutely a lower tier than favors nor davis. you're comparing ibaka being a raw, but rotational player in the NBA to a college player who is bigger, stronger and more athletic than just about anyone he faces. that will NOT be the case in the NBA. furthermore, even while being bigger and stronger than the overwhelming majority of his opponents, favors' numbers werent even that impressive. guys like wally judge or mason plumlee couldve put up those type of numbers if they were given a similar role.

your hyperbole isnt helping your case. favors is neither short, fat nor un-athletic (although his athleticism is SEVERELY overrated by scouts, especially when projected to the next level), but he is unskilled with limited potential offensively...who also doesnt have the defensive potential that ibaka has.

It's not my hyperbole, it's everyone's, and it would be helping my case if you understood how I was trying to use it. I'll try a different explanation. Derrick Favors is widely regarded as having played in the absolute worst offensive scheme he could have been placed in. The fact that he still put up numbers on A+ efficiency given all those hardships (losing touches to the redundant Lawal, the aforementioned bad guard play, alleged lack of offensive skill, etc.) tells me that he's a far better (or more skilled, more talented, whatever descriptor doesn't offend you) offensive prospect than Ibaka.

You know how else I know Favors and Davis are far better offensive prospects than Ibaka? By the very fact that they're the 4th and 6th rated players. This sounds like a silly argument, but it's not. There are some quality guys rated lower. Favors and Davis wouldn't be rated above those guys if they didn't have considerably more offensive potential than Ibaka, because defensive-specialist PFs simply aren't that valuable a commodity. Simple example, Cole Aldrich projects to be essentially the center version of Ibaka, which is inherently more valuable due to the scarcity of centers, and both Favors and Davis are universally regarded as better prospects.

You can argue all day, cutting down all the college prospects as a means to build Ibaka up, because I conveniently have no way of definitively proving that they're better until they actually play in the NBA. But we do have tangible evidence on Ibaka, and it says that he's an offensively raw player at a position that places a premium on offensive skill. Favors and Davis have a chance to be better, and I think they will be. Ibaka is Udoh with a somewhat higher ceiling.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#63 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 28, 2010 3:18 pm

John Doe [MIN] wrote:
ManualRam wrote:-ibaka is not a 2 way player, yet, but he has shown signs of being able to take advantage of whatever opportunities that are presented. his jumpshot in particular looks very good. about half his attempts are jumpshots and he converts them at a very good rate (46% eFG). what ibaka also has over favors is his activity level. he's very active and moves with a purpose. contrast that with favors who, when he doesnt get his touches looks meandering with his low energy level.
-even if serge's reduced to being a jumpshooting garbageman, who runs the floor well and is also utilized in pick n roll situations, that would still be enough to be productive offensively. just look at noah, he's able to put up double digits on energy and activity alone. now imagine if noah had a real jumpshot.

-how about you back up your claim that favors is MUCH more skilled offensively? what is he good at on that end of the floor?
-if ibaka played college ball he'd be a #1 or 2 option as well.
-favors will NOT be an offensive force in the NBA. hes' too robotic and he does not show good post instincts (gaining/ holding position, lack of moves, lack of off-hand, no ability to pass out of post, slow to react, poor ball skills/limited face-up ability, etc)
-ibaka is NOT absolutely a lower tier than favors nor davis. you're comparing ibaka being a raw, but rotational player in the NBA to a college player who is bigger, stronger and more athletic than just about anyone he faces. that will NOT be the case in the NBA. furthermore, even while being bigger and stronger than the overwhelming majority of his opponents, favors' numbers werent even that impressive. guys like wally judge or mason plumlee couldve put up those type of numbers if they were given a similar role.

your hyperbole isnt helping your case. favors is neither short, fat nor un-athletic (although his athleticism is SEVERELY overrated by scouts, especially when projected to the next level), but he is unskilled with limited potential offensively...who also doesnt have the defensive potential that ibaka has.

It's not my hyperbole, it's everyone's, and it would be helping my case if you understood how I was trying to use it. I'll try a different explanation. Derrick Favors is widely regarded as having played in the absolute worst offensive scheme he could have been placed in. The fact that he still put up numbers on A+ efficiency given all those hardships (losing touches to the redundant Lawal, the aforementioned bad guard play, alleged lack of offensive skill, etc.) tells me that he's a far better (or more skilled, more talented, whatever descriptor doesn't offend you) offensive prospect than Ibaka.

You know how else I know Favors and Davis are far better offensive prospects than Ibaka? By the very fact that they're the 4th and 6th rated players. This sounds like a silly argument, but it's not. There are some quality guys rated lower. Favors and Davis wouldn't be rated above those guys if they didn't have considerably more offensive potential than Ibaka, because defensive-specialist PFs simply aren't that valuable a commodity. Simple example, Cole Aldrich projects to be essentially the center version of Ibaka, which is inherently more valuable due to the scarcity of centers, and both Favors and Davis are universally regarded as better prospects.

You can argue all day, cutting down all the college prospects as a means to build Ibaka up, because I conveniently have no way of definitively proving that they're better until they actually play in the NBA. But we do have tangible evidence on Ibaka, and it says that he's an offensively raw player at a position that places a premium on offensive skill. Favors and Davis have a chance to be better, and I think they will be. Ibaka is Udoh with a somewhat higher ceiling.


so basically he's better becuz the scouts tell you so, even though ibaka's not even rated in this draft?
great post.
you still didnt detail any definitive offensive skill that favors possesses...other than the ability to put up mediocre numbers in a bad system.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#64 » by AQuintus » Wed Apr 28, 2010 6:14 pm

ManualRam wrote:you still didnt detail any definitive offensive skill that favors possesses...other than the ability to put up mediocre numbers in a bad system.


Jeez, the recent string of superstar Freshman has really started to spoil basketball fans. 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 27 minutes a game are definitely not mediocre numbers for a Freshman in a bad offensive situation. They may not be as good as other guys (like Cousins, who was in an amazing situation), and they may not be as good as they were expected to be (due to ridiculous expectations following guys like Beasley), but they're far from bad.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#65 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 28, 2010 6:24 pm

AQuintus wrote:
ManualRam wrote:you still didnt detail any definitive offensive skill that favors possesses...other than the ability to put up mediocre numbers in a bad system.


Jeez, the recent string of superstar Freshman has really started to spoil basketball fans. 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 27 minutes a game are definitely not mediocre numbers for a Freshman in a bad offensive situation. They may not be as good as other guys (like Cousins, who was in an amazing situation), and they may not be as good as they were expected to be (due to ridiculous expectations following guys like Beasley), but they're far from bad.

i didnt say they were bad, i said they were mediocre...which they were.
what was more shocking was his lack of skill and offensive instincts given his hype.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#66 » by AQuintus » Wed Apr 28, 2010 6:42 pm

ManualRam wrote:i didnt say they were bad, i said they were mediocre...which they were.
what was more shocking was his lack of skill and offensive instincts given his hype.


12 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 27 minutes a game are definitely not mediocre numbers for a Freshman in a bad offensive situation.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#67 » by ManualRam » Wed Apr 28, 2010 6:52 pm

AQuintus wrote:
ManualRam wrote:i didnt say they were bad, i said they were mediocre...which they were.
what was more shocking was his lack of skill and offensive instincts given his hype.


12 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 27 minutes a game are definitely not mediocre numbers for a Freshman in a bad offensive situation.

yeah, they are. if he was as big, physical and dominant as advertised, he wouldve put up better numbers.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#68 » by vincecarter4pres » Wed Apr 28, 2010 8:08 pm

I would like to say that I think Ibaka would go over Davis, but I don't see how that strengthens any arguments for Ibaka. Davis is an overrated prospect, that in my opinion will fall towards the bottom of the lottery when the smoke clears on draft night, maybe even completely out of it, but I think his young age and "potential", will keep him in there.

I would also like to say I have nothing against Ibaka and like him as a prospect/player. I certainly think he would go lottery in this draft, possibly as high as 8th overall, I just think the hype on this guy is currently more out of control then the hype was on Favors preseason.

These are players that in my opinion would absolutely get drafted over Ibaka:
Wall
Turner
Cousins
Favors
Johnson
Aminu
Aldrich

These are the players that would be an absolute toss up after the first seven:
Ibaka
Monroe
Patterson
Whiteside
Davis
Motiejunas
Henry

I don't think Henry is that great an overall prospect, but towards the end of the lottery, history has shown us that the top prospect at a position that is ill-represented in a draft tends to get taken over a superior prospect at a deep position.

Hence my view that Ibaka would go somewhere between 8 and 15.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#69 » by Blame Rasho » Sat May 1, 2010 8:19 pm

J_Ray wrote:Wasn't there a thread saying this guy would of been #1 pick last year over Blake Griffin had he gone to college? lol


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=911752&hilit=ibaka

ThunderPoke wrote:Imagine if this cat had played the last 2 years in D-1 instead of overseas. He would easily be this year's #1 pick. Compared to Griffin, he is taller, with longer arms, has a bigger frame, and has comparable athleticism. He would've put up monster numbers at the American collegiate level.

Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkxeAUJezP4
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#70 » by vincecarter4pres » Sun May 2, 2010 3:35 am

Wowsers. :lol:
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#71 » by slick_watts » Sun May 2, 2010 5:21 pm

I didn't read the whole thread but is this assuming he stayed in Europe two years or actually went to a US college? I think Serge has the athleticism and natural skills that would have made him highly noticeable if he were an NCAA player.
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Re: Where would Serge Ibaka go in the draft 

Post#72 » by Robslob » Sun May 2, 2010 9:21 pm

John Doe [MIN] wrote:
ManualRam wrote:-ibaka is not a 2 way player, yet, but he has shown signs of being able to take advantage of whatever opportunities that are presented. his jumpshot in particular looks very good. about half his attempts are jumpshots and he converts them at a very good rate (46% eFG). what ibaka also has over favors is his activity level. he's very active and moves with a purpose. contrast that with favors who, when he doesnt get his touches looks meandering with his low energy level.
-even if serge's reduced to being a jumpshooting garbageman, who runs the floor well and is also utilized in pick n roll situations, that would still be enough to be productive offensively. just look at noah, he's able to put up double digits on energy and activity alone. now imagine if noah had a real jumpshot.

-how about you back up your claim that favors is MUCH more skilled offensively? what is he good at on that end of the floor?
-if ibaka played college ball he'd be a #1 or 2 option as well.
-favors will NOT be an offensive force in the NBA. hes' too robotic and he does not show good post instincts (gaining/ holding position, lack of moves, lack of off-hand, no ability to pass out of post, slow to react, poor ball skills/limited face-up ability, etc)
-ibaka is NOT absolutely a lower tier than favors nor davis. you're comparing ibaka being a raw, but rotational player in the NBA to a college player who is bigger, stronger and more athletic than just about anyone he faces. that will NOT be the case in the NBA. furthermore, even while being bigger and stronger than the overwhelming majority of his opponents, favors' numbers werent even that impressive. guys like wally judge or mason plumlee couldve put up those type of numbers if they were given a similar role.

your hyperbole isnt helping your case. favors is neither short, fat nor un-athletic (although his athleticism is SEVERELY overrated by scouts, especially when projected to the next level), but he is unskilled with limited potential offensively...who also doesnt have the defensive potential that ibaka has.

It's not my hyperbole, it's everyone's, and it would be helping my case if you understood how I was trying to use it. I'll try a different explanation. Derrick Favors is widely regarded as having played in the absolute worst offensive scheme he could have been placed in. The fact that he still put up numbers on A+ efficiency given all those hardships (losing touches to the redundant Lawal, the aforementioned bad guard play, alleged lack of offensive skill, etc.) tells me that he's a far better (or more skilled, more talented, whatever descriptor doesn't offend you) offensive prospect than Ibaka.

You know how else I know Favors and Davis are far better offensive prospects than Ibaka? By the very fact that they're the 4th and 6th rated players. This sounds like a silly argument, but it's not. There are some quality guys rated lower. Favors and Davis wouldn't be rated above those guys if they didn't have considerably more offensive potential than Ibaka, because defensive-specialist PFs simply aren't that valuable a commodity. Simple example, Cole Aldrich projects to be essentially the center version of Ibaka, which is inherently more valuable due to the scarcity of centers, and both Favors and Davis are universally regarded as better prospects.

You can argue all day, cutting down all the college prospects as a means to build Ibaka up, because I conveniently have no way of definitively proving that they're better until they actually play in the NBA. But we do have tangible evidence on Ibaka, and it says that he's an offensively raw player at a position that places a premium on offensive skill. Favors and Davis have a chance to be better, and I think they will be. Ibaka is Udoh with a somewhat higher ceiling.

I'm not trying to be a dick, but it's obvious that John Doe has never watched Ibaka play. All you bring up are stats that you have looked up for him. You act like he has reached his peak offensively and that he is terribly skilled. After watching him the entire year, his progress was amazing. You can't deny the improvements he has made throughout the course of the season and playoffs. If you see his jumpshot, he obviously has good form and hits it at a pretty consistent pace. He really needs work on his low post moves because most of his points down low are offensive rebounds or pick and rolls.

You also claim he isn't as good as Favors because he wasn't the 1st or 2nd option on a playoff team. Why the hell would he be anything more than the 4th option on his team as a rookie? He has Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook starting before him as well as Jeff Green. All three of those guys have more experience in the NBA and are solid players. Serge was seen as a project coming into this year. He didn't even start playing consistent minutes until December. After watching him the entire year, his progress was amazing. You can't deny the improvements he has made throughout the course of the season and playoffs. I don't care where he would be drafted now because that's pretty irrelevant, but your explanation of why he shouldn't be high really doesn't make any sense. You don't even know his playing style offensively, yet you claim he sucks. It will be exciting to watch Serge improve over the next few years.

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