It seems Embiid will strongly consider staying

karkinos · Post #61 » by **karkinos** » Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:32 am

^this is why i think players should stay longer in school

nba can put out a better product if the players come nba ready like shaq and olajuwon, rather than spending good money and rookie years training someone on the job.

Mlockhart · Post #62 » by **Mlockhart** » Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:05 pm

NO-KG-AI wrote:If you have a future as an NBA player, playing in the NBA is the best experience you can get for it.

Get paid, and get a jump start on your development as a pro if you're a lock in the top 2-3

Truest thing I have heard on this board in awhile. You get better playing against the best competition. Way too many variables. You are a knee injury or back injury away from losing millions. He's a top 3 pick and in position to provide for his family. I know the KU fan base would like to see him back.

ESPN's Myron Medcalf just dropped this last night.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... p-for-pros

karkinos · Post #63 » by **karkinos** » Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:21 pm

going to the pros is better for the player since he gets compensated, but this doesn't mean it is better for the nba. paying a top draft pick that ends up with a short career due to injury doesn't help the nba's franchises at all.

a guaranteed contract is a privilege and it is appropriate to have stringent measures like increasing the age limit to ensure that such a contract can be fulfilled.

Tave · Post #64 » by **Tave** » Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:58 pm

What is best for a player in an economic sense is not necessarily best for the player's basketball development. Theoretically, becoming a better player should pay dividends long term, but as a practical matter, it's so rare for these guys to reach their potential, that in 99% of cases it's better to just take the guaranteed money right now and never look back.

I fully support students leaving early, and would prefer if the NBA changed back to the old rule allowing teams to draft high schoolers, but I don't think you can say the NCAA has no benefit for players. Bigs in particular seem to get a lot out of the extra years, which is unsurprising given that low-post footwork is probably the most technical and difficult skill to master in the game. And you have to learn to do it in games, practicing it in an open-gym is one thing, but actually doing it on the court during live play is infinitely harder.

Mlockhart wrote:You get better playing against the best competition.

Absolutely correct. However you still have to play the best competition, not watch it from the end of the bench. Embiid isn't ready to play full games against 20-year old midget boys, let alone 7-foot tall adult men. And you don't get many team practices after camp and pre-season in the NBA, so it's not like he makes up ground there.

I think he should stay if he wants to max out his abilities. I won't fault him one bit for leaving, in fact, I'll gladly admit that if I was in his position, I would take the money and laugh all the way to the bank.

karkinos · Post #65 » by **karkinos** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:12 am

i wish kg and kobe went to college

imagine how insane the tournaments would be

Knighthonor · Post #66 » by **Knighthonor** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:54 am

Wait,,, Anthony Davis is playing like a great player, did he go play in college 2 years? If so, I have to agree with him.

TheGoodDoctor · Post #67 » by **TheGoodDoctor** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:06 am

After already having problems with injuries he better strongly consider the opposite.

Apollo64 · Post #68 » by **Apollo64** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:28 am

Embiid should have an impact from the get go in the NBA and be a good player from his 2nd year. No need for him to stay in college.

shangrila · Post #69 » by **shangrila** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:51 am

You hear this every year. Durant apparently thought about it, as did Beasley, as did Wall, as does nearly every top prospect. I'll believe someone turns down some 20 odd mil when I see it.

GANGSTERDOG · Post #70 » by **GANGSTERDOG** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:10 pm

Its all a Ploy so his draft stock will Fall and he either goes to the Lakers or the Magic where He truly wants to play

Xbox Live/PSN : Gangsterdog

karkinos · Post #71 » by **karkinos** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:09 pm

shangrila wrote:You hear this every year. Durant apparently thought about it, as did Beasley, as did Wall, as does nearly every top prospect. I'll believe someone turns down some 20 odd mil when I see it.

bro
blake griffin, marcus smart

Tave · Post #72 » by **Tave** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:29 pm

Knighthonor wrote:Wait,,, Anthony Davis is playing like a great player, did he go play in college 2 years? If so, I have to agree with him.

Davis was much more athletic and physically capable at the same stage. He was dominating opposing teams for full games. Even then people questioned whether he'd make an immediate impact or would require time to bulk up and grow into his body. Lo and behold: it did take Davis some time to adjust playing against mature competition.

Not to mention, AD isn't a traditional back-to-the-basket low-post big.

Damon_3388 · Post #73 » by **Damon_3388** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:54 pm

shangrila wrote:You hear this every year. Durant apparently thought about it, as did Beasley, as did Wall, as does nearly every top prospect. I'll believe someone turns down some 20 odd mil when I see it.

The league and guaranteed rookie contracts aren't going anywhere soon...

shangrila · Post #74 » by **shangrila** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:16 pm

cancer wrote:
shangrila wrote:You hear this every year. Durant apparently thought about it, as did Beasley, as did Wall, as does nearly every top prospect. I'll believe someone turns down some 20 odd mil when I see it.

bro
blake griffin, marcus smart

So...two? Out of how many years now? Neither of these guys turned down practically guaranteed #1 money either (Smart wasn't projected that high and Griffin wasn't after his freshman season either).

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but you hear these rumours EVERY FREAKING YEAR. It's nothing to worry about until it actually happens.

karkinos · Post #75 » by **karkinos** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 4:57 am

what
they were both projected t5 lottery

and i only mentioned them because you wrote like it had never happened before. your statement seemed pretty ignorant given the very, very recent circumstances regarding marcus smart. it's also pretty obv u don't follow college bball bc everyone knows marcus smart was easily going to be among the top picks last year.

Chad Ford ✔ @chadfordinsider
Follow
If Woj report is true, first players since Blake Griffin to turn down a Top 3 pick to return to school ...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1607 ... ore-season

Big_C_KU · Post #76 » by **Big_C_KU** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 5:07 am

I don't remember Blake Griffin being projected to go top 5 after his freshman season. Especially after he hurt his knee against KU his freshman season and missed the last 3rd of the season.

Jared Sullinger and Harrison Barnes both turned down top 5 selections after their freshman seasons to return for their sophomore years. Marcus Smart turned down possibly going #1, definitely #2 to Orlando to come back.

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karkinos · Post #77 » by **karkinos** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:37 pm

see chad's tweet....or this
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/c ... 2650_x.htm

acrossthecourt · Post #78 » by **acrossthecourt** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 7:04 pm

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... er-college

While we can't run an experiment on how things would be different with a higher age limit, there is a group of relevant prospects we can use as a point of comparison: Players who chose to return to school for their sophomore seasons. Specifically, I looked at players from the last five drafts who were in Chad Ford's top 30 the summer before their sophomore year and were ultimately drafted in the first round.

As a control group, I used players who actually were one-and-done from the equivalent recruiting classes, covering the 2008-12 drafts. This group is somewhat more talented -- it includes four of the five No. 1 overall picks -- but the sophomores are strong in their own right.

We're not interested in the overall performance of these groups anyway. Instead, we want to focus on how they developed year to year. That's where my NCAA-to-NBA translations come in handy. They allow us to put college and NBA performance on the same scale (using player win percentage, the per-minute component of my WARP rating that is equivalent to PER).

That shows something remarkable. On average, the sophomores who return performed only marginally better than they did as freshmen.

Amazingly, of the 14 sophomores who qualify (which requires playing at least 500 minutes all three seasons, a criteria that knocks out Blake Griffin, among others), nine rated worse as sophomores than freshmen. That includes basically all the high-profile freshmen who passed on the draft and saw their stock fall.

One-and-dones develop quicker

While this group rated slightly better as NCAA freshmen, which makes sense given their perceived higher upside, 15 of the 21 improved as NBA rookies relative to their translated NCAA performance. On average, their win percentage went up by 10.5 percent, better even than we'd expect from players of this age.

(some parts clipped out)

-- Kevin Pelton

tomhaberstroh Tom Haberstroh

Since 2005 age-limit rule, NBA teams have been 2x as likely to draft a sophomore bust than a one-and-done bust

.

College development is a myth.

If you are a top tier prospect, you will not develop playing against inferior competition. There are few guys of his size and athleticism in college. He has nothing to prove there anymore.

The college game is also horrible for big men. You have fewer fouls, and young guys are notoriously prone to fouling, which means they often have to sit out for most of the first half when picking up two quick ones. You don't learn much that way. Look at guys like the Plumlee brothers, Drummond, and Adams. These were all athletic big men who look more comfortable in the NBA. He should also consider bolting so he has a better chance at finding a better doctor for his back.

karkinos · Post #79 » by **karkinos** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:14 pm

college development a myth?

has a rookie straight from hs or one and done dropped 20/10 their rookie year?

jmnvcavs · Post #80 » by **jmnvcavs** » Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:45 am

cancer wrote:college development a myth?

has a rookie straight from hs or one and done dropped 20/10 their rookie year?

A lot of the guys that jumped from HS had pretty bad first years, but I could argue that spending a year in the NBA is better development that spending a year in college.

Besides guys like LeBron/Amar'e/Dwight who were all pretty solid their rookie years.