Post#59 » by erudite23 » Tue May 27, 2014 8:27 pm
People have such a hard time separating what has happened since AD came into the league with what he was as a prospect coming out. As much as people hyped him up, there were also some very legit doubts about him. A lot of people said he would never average 20ppg as a pro, some even went so far as to call him a "defensive specialist."
Consider that he only averaged 17.7 PP40 in his freshman season. Embiid, as raw and underused as he was averaged 19.4. Noah Vonleh, who is considered a notch or two down from them as a prospect, and also being very raw and under developed, averaged 17.0.
Davis was very, very light coming out and there was concern that maybe he wouldn't be able to hold his ground versus grown men. He also had--and this is still an issue, btw--very little in terms of a post game, meaning that his offense was going to come from face ups and PnR almost exclusively.
Embiid, by contrast, rates very well-to-elite in all of these areas. He has a great frame that will clearly allow for more weight. He's got an emerging arsenal of back-to-the-basket moves that hint at future dominance. And he's got the same type of defensive length/athleticism combination that will allow him to control the paint in the pros.
So Embiid does have some clear advantages.
But, yes this is clearly Davis. He was a much safer pick with a far high floor. Embiid--between the back issue, his lateness to basketball, his age (remember he's older than some of last year's rookies and this year's sophomores) and the vast amount of projection that is going into his evaluation--is a far riskier pick. I think they have similar upside and you could argue that Embiid's massive size (he will be one of the 2 or 3 biggest players in the league that get regular minutes) along with his elite athletic abilities give him a slight edge over Davis in terms of his ceiling....but Davis was so much more of a known quantity than Joel it doesn't even come close.