Why isn't Russ Smith a first rounder?

[ManualRam]

Peyton Siva scored 10 points a game in college, shot 28 percent from 3P his senior year.

There's nothing about Siva that reminds anyone of Smith besides their college uniform. Lazy comparison.

If Siva's a second round pick, then Russ Smith should be a lottery pick.

there's nothing about siva that reminds me of an nba player. he should not have been drafted.

[Chuck Everett]

Some of the "defense" Russ Smith got to play in college will not be available in the NBA. You know Louisville is a hack 'em until they call it type team. I have a feeling if Russ tries to play that way, he'll be in foul trouble quite quickly. You can hand check in college, you can't in the pros.

[HeartBreakKid]

Why is Napier the gold standard here? Napier is a weak first rounder even with tournament hype, I wouldn't take the dude with my first round pick (probably). So why does Russ Smith being as good as Napier really mean anything?

[JN]

Stats for the whole year have more predictive value than postseason stats. That's a historical fact. Sorry to bore you with reality.

why not vs top seeds stats?

Why not matchups between Lousiville and UConn. Won't look too good for your boy then will it?

[greenandgold]

I watched every field goal Napier made in 2013-14 (it's on youtube). The problem with his game is that his signature move is a couple of dribbles that go nowhere then a pull-up three from deeeeep. It worked pretty well in college, I'll give him credit. But I can't see that kind of gunning working for a guy who projects to be role player in the NBA. Napier's no Steph Curry.

Russ Smith's signature move is a remarkable hesitation dribble to get into the lane. My opinion is his game will translate better in the NBA.

Watch what happens in 10 days. Smith will be drafted in the first round and ahead of Napier. The NBA guys agree with me.

[Ruzious]

I think Smith's lack of a true position and the fact that he projects more as a 6th man scorer than a starter is what is keeping him in the 2nd round of a stacked draft. He would have gone in the last 1st last year IMO, if he'd come out.

I like Smith though and think he could have a Jason Terry sort of impact.

That's an interesting comparison - to Terry. Terry was a speedster who didn't become a deadeye 3 point shooter until he was in the NBA for several years. Smith has rare speed - and aggression to go with it. Normally, I'd write off any 160 lb guard - especially one with limited PG experience and age 23, but I think Smith is an exception. His strengths make up for what are negatives that normally would not be overcome. And with a few bigger PGs nowadaze like MCW and Wall, you can play him some at the 2. My guess is he'll likely get picked 15 or so picks after Napier, but I think he'll have the better career.

[Nazrmohamed]

Career 3pt % don't matter as much as last year % for me. It's not uncommon for a player in four years of college to improve slower than the next four years in the nba. Anyway I think it's probably the fact that he weighs all of about 160 soaking wet so defense is gonna be his issue even though he's still gonna be a pest. At the nba level guys will power past him and the only way for him to slow them down is to foul them. Doesn't mean he isn't an nba player, just means he can't ever start. Best case scenario for me would be anywhere from. Norris Cole to a Juan Barrea. Basically if he makes it past his rookie contract it'd be because some established team brings him off the bench to go nuts, score some points, annoy some pg by reaching on defense and then sitting the hell down. But hey, there are a few guys like that so in my opinion he's right where he belongs and who knows, maybe some team takes him early in the second.

[greenandgold]

http://hoopsanalyst.com/?p=1261

Ed Weiland of Hoops Analyst has Smith ranked a notch above Napier.

5. Russ Smith

"There are a lot of things to like about Smith just from looking at these numbers. He improved his efficiency every year to the point where he was one of the most potent scoring PGs in the nation as a senior. His S40 has always been ridiculously high. His RSB40 has always been over 7.0. After 2 seasons playing SG next to Payton Siva, he took over the point as a senior and did a stellar job.

I also like the fact that he came back so strongly from a somewhat awkward episode after the championship game last year when his father announced to the world that he would enter the 2013 draft, an endeavor that didn’t go so well. Whenever a player improves his game exactly where he needs to, as Smith did as a senior, I take it as a very good sign."

6. Shabazz Napier (comparison with Kemba Walker)

"Both are inefficient scorers with solid defensive numbers. Both have decent passing numbers. The only red flag for both players would be the 2PP being consistently below .500.

"Kemba Walker has had a good start to his career, but he also landed in a great situation. The Bobcats were a historically bad team that really needed NBA-level players. Kemba came in and did a solid job at the point and was an integral piece in the team crashing the playoffs this year. I still have my doubts whether he’s a long term answer as a starting PG on a contender though.

"That Walker has exceeded expectations and become a solid NBA PG doesn’t mean Napier will do the same, despite their similarities. But his success can’t be easily dismissed when evaluating Napier. Just looking at the numbers Napier is a decent prospect who should be a bubble first rounder without taking Walker’s success into account. His defensive numbers have gone from decent to strong. He’s a solid passer. The offense is inefficient, but he’s a .400 shooter from behind the arc and that in itself makes him a valuable bench player. The fact that he led a team to an NCAA championship against a much stronger field than the one Kemba faced also ticks his stock up a few points.

"Shabazz Napier is very unlikely to be a star in the NBA. I do see his high end as similar to Kemba Walker. He’ll be something short of a starting NBA PG, but a player good enough to give solid minutes off the bench, be a spot starter on a contender and a full-time starter on a weaker team."

[Novocaine]

Ken Pom has the defensive stats: http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE

Both teams were terrific defensively but Louisville had a significantly better team defense than Connecticut, and on the paid site you can see that Russ Smith is responsible for a larger portion of Louisville's defensive success then Napier was for Connecticut's defensive success. This was the major reason Ken Pom gave Russ Smith college player of the year in 2014 over Napier, who came in second.

Also the consensus of traditional scouting reports rate Smith as a better defender than Napier.

Draftexpress on Smith's defense:

"While his considerable improvement on the offensive end adds to his intrigue, his bread-and-butter as a prospect remains his defense. By the numbers, Smith graduated as Louisville's all-time leader in steals, averaging 1.9 steals per game for his career and ranked fifth among prospects in our top-100 as a senior.

"On film, his excellent lateral quickness, length, and aggressiveness allow him to be an elite on-ball defender, skills that should translate seamlessly to the next level. Likewise, he fights through screens, gets in passing lanes, and makes hustle plays, all of which make him an intriguing NBA prospect, despite his lack of size and slight frame."

Draftexpress on Napier's defense:

"Kevin Ollie has done a good job of using Napier's strengths and minimizing his weaknesses on the defensive end of the court. He is a pesky defender on the perimeter, moving his feet fairly well and with active hands, as his 2.1 steals per 40 minutes pace adjusted is one of the top figures in our database for point guards.

"That being said, Napier's physical profile presents some obvious concerns on this end of the court when projecting him to the next level. Standing at a (generous) 6'1" with only a 6'2" wingspan, Napier will be at a physical and athletic disadvantage every night in the NBA."

Elite on ball defender whose skills should translate seamlessly to the next level vs. pesky defender who will be at a physical and athletic disadvantage every night in the NBA. I think we can put the defense thing to rest. All evidence points to Smith being better on that end of the floor.

This is a good example of bad scouting.

Yes, he fights through screens at the elite level. In the NBA, he'll be a liability defending off the ball (or defending bigger guys on the ball) because he's so light. It doesn't matter how pesky, intense and quick he is (he's all those things), they'll still body him out of plays.

I like Smith as a scoring guard off the bench. A guy to chance the pace of the game. I think he'll be a good shooter in the NBA once he stops taking so many bad shots (and once he's stronger and playing 15-20 mpg - so not taking as many shots while tired and weak legs as he did in Louisville). He'll also be a good defensive weapon to put pressure at the point of attack, ball hawking.

That's his ceiling IMO though.

What are the arguments against Russ Smith as an NBA prospect?

He's very small. Very thin build.

He's very bad shot selection. Correcting that will be paramount for the future of his NBA career.

He shoots first, second and third. He's a guy to score and mostly on jump-shots.

All in all, will probably be a mediocre backup/decent 3rd string in the first couple of seasons, hopefully evolving to a good scoring 3rd guard later on. n this draft, a guy like this isn't worth a first rounder.

[greenandgold]

Smith certainly corrected his shot selection as a senior. That's how you win Ken Pom's college player of the year award for statistical efficiency two years in a row.

Like that other Russdiculous in the NBA, Smith is incredibly aggressive on offense. He'll always get criticized for the 10% of his game where he overreaches, but the positive 90% of what he puts on the table is going to be very good.