Who "won" the draft?

[tayottt]

In Basketball there is generally too much talk about "winners" and "losers." We analyze trades from the standpoint of who won and who lost and we do the same with free agency, and drafts. Most of the time there is no clear cut "winner",since life isn't so absolute.

That being said it's still interesting to think about which team had the best draft or succeeded, viewed through the lens of what each team wanted/needed.

When I view it like that I come away thinking that the Denver Nuggets were very effective on draft night. They traded the no 11 pick to the Bulls and got the no. 16 and 19 picks in return. In a fairly deep draft such as this one that is a great trade, but when you couple it with WHO they actually acquired, their talents, and the holes they fit for the team it makes a lot of sense.

16. Jusuf Nurkic. Nurkic brings something that isn't prevalent in the NBA anymore. He is a center that is very aggressive on both ends of the floor, and he has the big body to back up his aggression. He also showed impressive lateral quickness given his massive frame when guarding the Pick and Roll. While we won't be able to tell until the season plays out, I give this pick an A. Nurkic provides the Nuggets with another option at Center (a position that has been a struggle with Javale/Mozgov's inconsistency) and some skills that they lack on both ends. His biggest problem will be acclimating to the feel of the game. I fully expect him to foul a lot and get frustrated as he tries to navigate NBA defense, but I think Brian Shaw is a great defensive mind and should be able to get something out of him.

19. Gary Harris. It is fairly shocking that a player with the statistics and talent Harris had fell as far as he did. However, in the modern NBA teams are leery when it comes to undersized players. Harris brings very good defense and shot making to a Nuggets team that are in dire need of both on the perimeter. A very solid pick and potentially a steal. It also gives Brian Shaw another defensive minded guy on the roster. He also won't be asked to contribute too much too soon with the return of Afflalo and Gallo potentially.

41. Nikola Jokic. Not much is known of Jokic so I can't speak at length on his play. From what I've read and seen he appear to be a high basketball IQ player that projects to be a stretch 4. Yet again, this give Shaw a weapon that he can utilize, as the team was in desperate need of better spacing offensively. They also are well served by having a big that can actually pass the ball.

Overall, the reason I champion this Nuggets draft is the fact that they didn't over-think it. They took who they believed were the best players on the board and the picks also made sense from a team construction standpoint.

Note: I am not a Nuggets fan. In addition, I understand the Bull's reasoning for trading up to get Mcdermott and respect their logic. I think the trade benefits both sides.

[HeartBreakKid]

Philly won the draft easily.

They got the best prospect, Joel Embiid, who should have went #1 overall.

They got Dario Saric who should be a nice prospect, but in conjunction they landed a 2017 first round draft pick by trading Saric for Payton (which they were drafted only 1 or 2 spots apart).



I agree with the Chicago-Denver trade having mutual benefits.

[miltk]

TEAMS
the backend teams. the deep draft helped them more than it did the lottery teams.

PLAYERS
winners -
randle. somewhat beaten down, i think he will kill on this team. he's got to be one of the happiest players in the draft
adams. shocker. from #60 player in high school to #22 ahead of kyle.
anderson. SA. what more is there to say. if a player ever needed a particular team for his particular skillset. if there was ever a player born with the attitude to play a particular way,,,,this is it.
parker, he didn't want cleve
hairston. unless lebron leaves

losers
lavine. this is the last place he needed to go to.

[tayottt]

I think Philly gets an incomplete for this draft. They essentially drafted two wild cards and are kicking the can another year down the road. I do think that Embiid was the best prospect in the draft and it makes me happy that they acquired him because I think it says a lot about Noel. Clearly, the front office is confident in their medical staff''s ability to get guys in shape, and this seems sensible since they didn't have any major injury concerns throughout the season. However, his health is a real issue and I can't give the pick a good grade until he has a clean bill of health and can contribute. The same goes for the Saric pick. Most people are higher on Saric than I am so I generally am not very excited when I hear the name, but beyond that he is a guy that will not be seen for two seasons.

I think we can praise Philly for their long range thinking but they didn't "win" the draft. I do like the KJ Mcdaniels pick, though he doesn't provide the shooting they desperately need. Jeremi Grant also made sense as a second rounder.

Ultimately, the vision is still murky on what Philly is doing. It's obvious that they are accruing as many young assets as possible, but when all the 76ers are doing is throwing picks at the wall hoping one sticks things become dangerous. Are they afraid of making a trade for an established player? Can they attract free agents? We will see how this experiment goes. The analytics geek in me loves the broad vision, but the realist in me is a bit skeptical. B+

[bwgood77]

Cleveland. They barely missed the playoffs in the east and then got Wiggins.

[HeartBreakKid]

I think Philly gets an incomplete for this draft. They essentially drafted two wild cards and are kicking the can another year down the road.

They were the #3 pick in the draft (second worst team), they were going to kick the can another year no matter who they drafted. What's the difference between them drafting Embiid and a team like Orlando or Jazz drafting Gordon and Exum? They're all going to be in the lotto next year regardless.

The same goes for the Saric pick. Most people are higher on Saric than I am so I generally am not very excited when I hear the name, but beyond that he is a guy that will not be seen for two seasons.

They got a first round pick from the Orlando magic for getting Saric. (They traded picks on draft night)

[tayottt]

They were the #3 pick in the draft (second worst team), they were going to kick the can another year no matter who they drafted. What's the difference between them drafting Embiid and a team like Orlando or Jazz drafting Gordon and Exum? They're all going to be in the lotto next year regardless.

For me the difference is that Orlando and Utah have the added luxury of having known commodities in 2015. By this time next season we will have a fairly good idea of what Gordon and Exum's abilities are at the NBA level and what they can improve on. At the very least there should be active player development within the organizations to mold these young players to a system. In Philly's case, they assuredly lose two years of figuring out where Saric fits and how to use him and they potentially lose a full year of the same with Embiid. This doesn't make Embiid/Saric worse as players, it just makes the team's future more murky. That is the reason I can't say they "won" the draft. The "draft grade" for them will come at least a year later than the other teams mentioned (and more likely two years). That's the logic behind my "kicking the can" metaphor.

[HeartBreakKid]

They were the #3 pick in the draft (second worst team), they were going to kick the can another year no matter who they drafted. What's the difference between them drafting Embiid and a team like Orlando or Jazz drafting Gordon and Exum? They're all going to be in the lotto next year regardless.

For me the difference is that Orlando and Utah have the added luxury of having known commodities in 2015. By this time next season we will have a fairly good idea of what Gordon and Exum's abilities are at the NBA level and what they can improve on. At the very least there should be active player development within the organizations to mold these young players to a system. In Philly's case, they assuredly lose two years of figuring out where Saric fits and how to use him and they potentially lose a full year of the same with Embiid. This doesn't make Embiid/Saric worse as players, it just makes the team's future more murky. That is the reason I can't say they "won" the draft. The "draft grade" for them will come at least a year later than the other teams mentioned (and more likely two years). That's the logic behind my "kicking the can" metaphor.

Well, it is not like Philly is unaware of what someone like Noel can do, just because he didn't play. They still have training facilities and what not, he's still part of the team. The Clippers knew how good Blake Griffin was even though he didn't play his rookie season, these guys are still in the NBA.

The whole year of not playing is also a little ironic when discussing someone like Exum. Exum really didn't do anything and he got drafted high, his ranking is literally based on hyperbole, so while he will play his rookie season, the actual basis of him being picked 5th overall isn't supported by statistics that he will be that great of a prospect (I have him at about 6 on my big boards quite a bit behind Smart and Randle). What do you think of Utah taking Exum, and what do you grade their draft overall?


Though the real point of my response here is to just inform you that Embiid is not expected to miss the entire season like Noel was (which ended up being false, but Philly sat Noel anyway). So at this point in time, the basis that one year from now we will know what Exum/Gordon are made out of and not Embiid is incorrect.

[tayottt]

Well, it is not like Philly is unaware of what someone like Noel can do, just because he didn't play. They still have training facilities and what not, he's still part of the team. The Clippers knew how good Blake Griffin was even though he didn't play his rookie season, these guys are still in the NBA.

Though the real point of my response here is to just inform you that Embiid is not expected to miss the entire season like Noel was (which ended up being false, but Philly sat Noel anyway). So at this point in time, the basis that one year from now we will know what Exum/Gordon are made out of and not Embiid is incorrect.

I'm not sure I subscribe to the philosophy that developing a player like Noel or even Griffin with your training staff or in practice tells one as much as developing them AND having them play against actual NBA competition. In fact, I think how they play against NBA talent in proper organized games is the more important indicator of what you have. Game speed with referees and all the other factors is a different beast. This is why we've seen that rookies that get heavy reps at the NBA level tend to do better than their d-league counterparts. It is also why many foolish franchises have guys fly up their draft boards based solely on a good/rigorous workout.

As for my point about the intel after year one. I still stand by it. Exum/Gordon will likely have a large sample size of minutes. Embiid will likely miss a good chunk of games and when he comes back he may be treated with kid gloves. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't play much at all and the Sixers try to get in on the Jahlil Okafor sweepstakes. Maybe that's just my inner skeptic.

I'm pretty high on Exum personally, though I'm not a big fan of the fit in Utah. I probably give Utah a C for the draft. They took Exum who I love, but I don't think he will be utilized properly. They then drafted Hood, who I (and most stat geeks) are low on. We don't know much of anything about Exum and he didn't play in some facsimile of a professional league so I will be even more excited to see how he pans out. I just feel very strongly about his talent. He was 4 on my draft board. I think if he doesn't get injured he will be an all star in this league. The guy is too competitive and has such a high bball IQ at a young age. It helps that he has elite speed and height for his position too. He strikes me as someone who will figure it out. In general I tend to like prospects that fit two out of the following three criteria:
1. Defined NBA role/skills
2. Great advanced statistics.
3. Physical tools (measurements, speed, etc.)
Exum has 1 and 3 and I really like the tape I've seen.

Also, to continue with some teams who I thought did well in the draft I would like to mention the Rockets (Capela), Spurs (Anderson), and Heat (Napier). These teams were already good but added guys who fit into what they try to run. A back-up big was crucial for the Rockets with the loss of Asik, an advance stat/high IQ wiz with a unique skill set smells of Spurs culture, and a feisty Point Guard with very good ball handling skills that takes and makes a boatload of threes seems perfect for Miami.

[Amish Mafioso]

Utah did.

[LofJ]

Cleveland. They barely missed the playoffs in the east and then got Wiggins.

Agreed, I'd also add us (Charlotte) to the list. We made the playoffs and had a top 5 talent drop to us at 9. Cleveland's insane good fortune gave us an awesome, unexpected boost.

[dancooper]

orlando won the draft. they got aaron gordon, which was a schock in my opinion), but then they reedeem theirselves by drafting saric and then trading him for elf payton.

G - Elfrid Payton
G - Oladipo
F - Tobias Harris OR Aaron Gordon
F - Aaron Gordon OR Tobias Harris
C - Vucevic

really young team with lots of potential

[Snotbubbles]

orlando won the draft. they got aaron gordon, which was a schock in my opinion), but then they reedeem theirselves by drafting saric and then trading him for elf payton.

G - Elfrid Payton
G - Oladipo
F - Tobias Harris OR Aaron Gordon
F - Aaron Gordon OR Tobias Harris
C - Vucevic

really young team with lots of potential

That can't shoot.

[E-Balla]

orlando won the draft. they got aaron gordon, which was a schock in my opinion), but then they reedeem theirselves by drafting saric and then trading him for elf payton.

G - Elfrid Payton
G - Oladipo
F - Tobias Harris OR Aaron Gordon
F - Aaron Gordon OR Tobias Harris
C - Vucevic

really young team with lots of potential

When you pick Aaron Gordon at 4 you automatically lose. He wasn't a top 14 prospect IMO.

Utah won if I had to pick one team. They got 2 guys everyone thought would go top 5 or 7.

[bwgood77]

Cleveland. They barely missed the playoffs in the east and then got Wiggins.

Agreed, I'd also add us (Charlotte) to the list. We made the playoffs and had a top 5 talent drop to us at 9. Cleveland's insane good fortune gave us an awesome, unexpected boost.

Oh yeah, that was a steal. He was one of my favorites in the draft. Personally if I was Philly I would have taken him at 3.

[Cammo101]

When you pick Aaron Gordon at 4 you automatically lose. He wasn't a top 14 prospect IMO.

Isaiah, is that you?

[babyjax13]

Denver won. They got Nurkic who they could have drafted at 11, and Harris who they could have also drafted at 11, got Afflalo for Evan Fournier and a pick that would never see the floor and then drafted Nikola Jokic on top of all that (who I think is a better prospect than Nurkic).

Philadelphia is also a winner in my books. You swing for the fences enough eventually something hits.

I liked Utah's first pick. I'm not crazy about Hood and trading their second round pick was weird.

[E-Balla]

When you pick Aaron Gordon at 4 you automatically lose. He wasn't a top 14 prospect IMO.

Isaiah, is that you?

Mad you drafted a scrub? The man is a 220 lb PF with no length (8-9 standing reach), no skill (42% from the free throw line), not a great rebounder, not even the best perimeter defender in the draft... Like seriously. He's not close to good.

[EMG518]

Nuggets had the best draft week trading Fournier and a late 2nd for Afflalo and trading pick #11 Doug Mcdermott for pick #16 Jusuf Nurkic and #19 Gary Harris. Runner up is Charlotte who got lucky Cleveland leap frogged Detrot which resulted in a top 8 protected pick becoming pick 9 and then Sacramento drafting for need allowing Noah Vonleh to drop to 9. They also grabbed Napier at 24 and parlayed him into another asset with PJ Hairston.

[Austincys21]

Denver and Charlotte


I also like what my Lakers did getting Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson. Plus signing DeAndre Kane to summer league. I'm hoping they go out and get Patrick Young as a backup defensive center