Lottery Wings

[yosemiteben]

Interested to read some discussion of how you would rank the wings currently projected to go in the lottery - Hezonja, Johnson, Oubre and Winslow.

I haven't really watched much of Johnson or any of Hezonja outside of some youtube clips, but have watched Oubre and Winslow. I seem to always catch Oubre during his dud performances so I really have not been impressed with him, but acknowledge that there are others who really like him.

How do you distinguish between these prospects? All the NCAA guys have pretty similar offensive and defensive stats. Oubre is smaller (weight wise, not height wise) which could be a good and bad thing. Hezonja seems to be more of an offensive threat but is a bit of a wildcard due to his buyout situation and alleged chemistry issues.

Thoughts?

[Notanoob]

Not a big fan of Oubre. Took him 10 games to get the starting job. Doesn't create his own shot often, rarely creates for others. Lowest assist/game and worst A/TO ratio of the lottery wings. Star players need to create their own shot or create for others. That limits him to being Trevor Ariza- play defense, shoot 3s, and little else.

Johnson was supposed to be the high-motor guy but got benched against Utah for not putting in effort on defense. Creates a lot for himself. Poor finisher despite his size, strength and athleticism, but good at drawing fouls. He's hitting jump shots at a solid rate this season but his shot isn't perfect. Passing isn't great; He does more than Oubre but has a similar A/TO ratio.

Mario looks like a stud by the numbers. Has the athleticism to hack it in the NBA. He's hitting 3s at an elite rate. Finishing great inside too, but looks like he relies heavily on his jump shot based on his 3AP vs. 2PA. Doesn't draw fouls at all or rebound well. A/TO is decent, seen him thread the needle nicely in highlight videos, might be that he likes to throw risky passes. We've all heard the stuff about him having an attitude too, so it's impossible to know for sure, but it seems like the kid could be an offensive dynamo.

Winslow looks like the best overall player by far IMO. No real holes in his game, baring a low FT%. Shooting 3s well, finishing at the hoop well, good passing numbers and a solid A/To ratio. Playing top-notch defense despite the fact that playing defense is clearly optional at Duke. Not the biggest but a plenty good athlete. Creates plenty for himself a decent number of shots.

[noobcake]

http://thebiglead.com/2014/11/23/duke-freshman-justise-winslow-jumped-over-a-stanford-player-to-block-a-shot/

Dude is the most athletic SG/SF in the draft.

[Kevin Willis]

http://thebiglead.com/2014/11/23/duke-freshman-justise-winslow-jumped-over-a-stanford-player-to-block-a-shot/

Dude is the most athletic SG/SF in the draft.

Mario is also pretty damn athletic.

[Kevin Willis]

You should also include Anderson and Dekker who might slide into the lottery.

[reanimator]

You should also include Anderson and Dekker who might slide into the lottery.

Only a madman would take either into the lottery.

[Kevin Willis]

You should also include Anderson and Dekker who might slide into the lottery.

Only a madman would take either into the lottery.

I would agree but it is NBA GMs. Someone might be too cute and go for the long shot or safe shot as both represent.

Or even Jefferson. A defensive stopper for the Russells of the world.

[yosemiteben]

You should also include Anderson and Dekker who might slide into the lottery.

I give that a zero percent chance. Dekker is a wing that shoots 30% from three after his junior year. I actually quite like Anderson but highly doubt he's going lotto.

[Catchall]

My opinion:

- Mario Hezonja is the best shooter of the group. He has an excellent high, quick-release jumper with range out to about 25 feet. His minutes have been limited and he's looking to score when he's on the floor. He comes off as a slightly selfish player, like he thinks he's better than everyone else--which is true. He has the athleticism to slash and finish above the rim, and his first step will get by most SFs in the NBA, if not most SGs. He's more athletic than Gordon Hayward or Klay Thompson.

- Kelly Oubre has prototypical size and length for the wing position. He's been inconsistent, going from aggressive to passive in Kansas' offense. However, I'm not sure that's all on him. I thought he should have been featured more and felt that Selden was more of a ball stopper than he should have been. He's still a young and raw prospect, so it's early to say what kind of player he'll be. He's got the physical tools to play a role similar to Paul George, and can at least be a 3/D player like Ariza or Robert Horry back in the day. Oubre has shown decent aggressiveness and timing rebounding the ball and his length on the perimeter will have an impact.

- Stanley Johnson is a big dude. He's 245 lbs, which on the one hand enables him to bully smaller players in or around the paint, but it also slows his first step and makes him less explosive and fast than the other wings being compared. His ideal role might be as a combo forward in a spread system, similar to Harrison Barnes or Draymond Green with Golden State. His jumper has a low, forward release that may relegate him to being a spot-up shooter rather than a guy who creates jumpers for himself off the dribble. He'll need to adjust his game to finish inside vs. NBA length. Given the adjustments he'll have to make, I there is some risk with Johnson. He shouldn't be a bust like Derrick Williams or Anthony Bennett, as he's at least a solid defensive player.

- Justise Winslow is an athletic, tough wing with good IQ. Some of his more athletic plays remind me of a younger Dwayne Wade, but he's obviously not as creative, skilled or shifty as Wade was. Winslow is excellent in the open floor and would be very good in an up-tempo system. He's a good spot-up shooter, but struggles creating and converting shots in the half court. His game may translate better to the pros than the NCAA, as he's a good straight-line driver when given space. He'll defend and rebound well for a guard.

[Catchall]

As a Jazz fan, I want Hezonja first and foremost, then it gets more blurry. I think Jonson could play a combo-forward role and might develop into a player a bit like a young David West. Oubre would give the Jazz ideal length defensively next to Exum and Hayward, but it's not clear just how much better he'll be than Rodney Hood. Defensively he should be better for sure. Winslow is a nice player, but I'm not sure if he'll take minutes away from Alec Burks, whom the Jazz really like, or Rodney Hood, who is probably a better shooter from range.

[Doctor Flow]

What about Looney?

[Notanoob]

What about Looney?

Most people think of him as a PF. His jump shot needs some work I think.

[bucephalus]

It somewhat depends what you want from a wing.

Offensively, I would rank them:
Hezonja
Johnson
Winslow
Oubre

First two guys are good at finding their own shot, Winslow is also a good shooter but not as adept at creating for himself or others. Oubre has a decent stroke, but is very streaky.

Defensively it's:
Winslow
Johnson
Oubre
Hezonja

Winslow has shown the ability to read passing lanes, and has the athleticism to bother an opponents shot. Johnson is a hard-nosed defender. Oubre has the length and potential, but he is very raw. Hezonja sometimes doesn't seem interested in playing defense.

Intangibles (IQ, competitiveness, etc.):
Johnson
Hezonja
Winslow
Oubre

Johnson seems to me like the most competitive of the four, while Hezonja has the highest basketball IQ. Winslow is adequate, Oubre again has some nice potential but has a knack for disappearing for stretches (although that may be the Bill Self effect)

[Catchall]

I have a hard time figuring out what Looney will be. He's got great length and a good motor, which helps him defensively. He likes to face and take jumpers, and his elevation at the rim Isn't great. He'll rebound and compete hard, but he doesn't seem all that great at any one aspect of the game right now. He reminds me of a slightly-past-his-prime Luol Deng or maybe a better version of Marvin Williams, mainly due to his passing and aggressiveness as a rebounder.

[Notanoob]

Offensively, I would rank them:
Hezonja
Johnson
Winslow
Oubre

First two guys are good at finding their own shot, Winslow is also a good shooter but not as adept at creating for himself or others. Oubre has a decent stroke, but is very streaky.

Johnson may do more creating than Winslow, but he's pretty turnover-prone compared to Winslow. Winslow has also been more aggressive in creating his own looks down the stretch, I wouldn't knock his shot-creating compared to Johnson's.

Intangibles (IQ, competitiveness, etc.):
Johnson
Hezonja
Winslow
Oubre

Johnson seems to me like the most competitive of the four, while Hezonja has the highest basketball IQ. Winslow is adequate, Oubre again has some nice potential but has a knack for disappearing for stretches (although that may be the Bill Self effect)

I think that Winslow actually has the best intangibles here. Johnson is supposed to be the high-motor guy, but he was benched for not giving enough effort on defense against Utah. Meanwhile Winslow is playing hard defense every possession despite the fact that Coach K has made defense optional for his star players in favor of offense (like Parker and Okafor). Hezonja might have to be last over the rumors about him being a bit of a hot-headed gunner and not being great in the locker room-confidence is great, but what if the kid just turns out to be a Chandler Parsons-level player but is demanding the ball like he's Kobe?

[bucephalus]

Offensively, I would rank them:
Hezonja
Johnson
Winslow
Oubre

First two guys are good at finding their own shot, Winslow is also a good shooter but not as adept at creating for himself or others. Oubre has a decent stroke, but is very streaky.

Johnson may do more creating than Winslow, but he's pretty turnover-prone compared to Winslow. Winslow has also been more aggressive in creating his own looks down the stretch, I wouldn't knock his shot-creating compared to Johnson's.

Intangibles (IQ, competitiveness, etc.):
Johnson
Hezonja
Winslow
Oubre

Johnson seems to me like the most competitive of the four, while Hezonja has the highest basketball IQ. Winslow is adequate, Oubre again has some nice potential but has a knack for disappearing for stretches (although that may be the Bill Self effect)

I think that Winslow actually has the best intangibles here. Johnson is supposed to be the high-motor guy, but he was benched for not giving enough effort on defense against Utah. Meanwhile Winslow is playing hard defense every possession despite the fact that Coach K has made defense optional for his star players in favor of offense (like Parker and Okafor). Hezonja might have to be last over the rumors about him being a bit of a hot-headed gunner and not being great in the locker room-confidence is great, but what if the kid just turns out to be a Chandler Parsons-level player but is demanding the ball like he's Kobe?

These are just my opinion, but I do want to say that it was very close between Johnson and Winslow for me offensively. I've just seen Johnson with the ball in his hands creating more times than I've seen Winslow, and so that was why I put him over. Hezonja is high on the intangibles list mostly for his high basketball IQ. But again, they're called intangibles for a reason: they're hard to measure and everyone looks at them differently.