NBA Draft Analytics: 2009-2015

[theGreatRC]

Here is the link to the projections:
http://probasketballanalysis.com/nba-dr ... la-action/

These prospects were given scores based on:

=> Takes a player’s college data and synthesizes a talent base level the player possesses & aims to project what a particular player’s production will look like as they enter the prime of their career (25-27).

=> Ranks player in 7 skills; age, steals, blocks & rebound rates, 3PM, FTM, PPR (assist/turnover), per 32 min

=> Takes out deductions for obvious red flags; height for position, injury,conference strength.

=> Produces a single score for each player

2014:

1. Marcus Smart
2. Jusuf Nurkic
3. Jordan Adams
4. Noah Vonleh
5. Julius Randle
6. Jabari Parker
7. Joel Embiid
8. Clint Capela
9. Andrew Wiggins
10. Aaron Gordon

Elfrid Payton was 14, Lavine and Jordan Clarkson were in the 50s, Rodney Hood was around ~80.

2013:

1. Caldwell-Pope
2. Nerlens Noel
3. Otto Porter
4. Mike Muscala
5. Tony Mitchell
6. Jamaal Franklin
7. Cody Zeller
8. CJ McCollum
9. Carter-Williams
10. Steven Adams

Oladipo was 14, Gorgui Dieng was 16, Alex Len was 17, Trey Burke 18 and Mclemore 19. Shabazz Muhammad and Hardaway Jr was at the bottom near the 90s and Tony Snell was ranked 99th out of 100.

2012:

1. Anthony Davis
2. Jared Sullinger
3. Bradley Beal
4. Terrance Jones
5. Jae Crowder
6. Thomas Robinson
7. Draymond Green
8. Moe Harkless
9. Andre Drummond
10. Jared Cunningham

Damian Liilard was 14, Kidd-Gilchrist was 16, Terrance Ross was 18th, Khris Middleton was 20th.

2011:

1. Faried
2. Irving
3. Kemba
4. Tristan Thompson
5. Tyler Honeycutt
6. Klay Thompson
7. Iman Shumpert
8. Derrick Williams
9. Alec Burks
10. Markieff Morris

Tobias Harris was 12, Reggie Jackson 13, Jimmy Buttler was 17, Brandon Knight was middle of the list, Chandler Parsons ranked near the very bottom.

2010:

1. Cousins
2. Monroe
3. Paul George
4. Gordon Hayward
5. Derrick Favors
6. John Wall
7. Al-Farouq Aminu
8. Cole Aldrich
9. Tiny Gallon
10. Evan Turner

11 was Larry Sanders, Hassan Whiteside was 20, Grieves Vasquez was 22, Avery Bradley+Lance Stephenson+Quincy Pondexter were at the bottom half of the list.

2009:

1. Blake Griffin
2. Stephen curry
3. James Harden
4. Dejuan Blair
5. Lester Hudson
6. Nick Calathes
7. Tyreke Evans
8. Jrue Holiday
9. Jordan Hill
10. Hasheem Thabeet

11 was Ty Lawson, 14 was Taj Gibson, 16 was Danny Green, Jeff Teague was 20, Pat Beverly was 24, Darren Collison was 2nd to last and Demar DeRozen was in the bottom half.



So knowing what you know now about this formula, what are your thoughts?

I feel like nothing is consistent in the 6 years of players being projected. I would say 2009's top 10 has the most NBA talent and 2013 was the worst.

2009 produced 4 all-stars in the top 10
2010 produced 3 all-stars in the top 10
2011 produced 2 all-stars in the top 10
2012 produced 1 all-star in the top 10
2013 produced 0 all-stars/TBD
2014 produced 0 all-stars/TBD

I will say though that these lists barely have any busts in the top 10, maybe one or two per list, but not more than that. Each of the guys excluding the 1or2 busts have been serviceable NBA players.

[cedric76]

No Léonard in 2011?

[laika]

So basically this formula is worthless. It doesn't seem any better at predicting success than the actual draft order.

There probably is some sort of statistical indicator of future NBA success out there, but it seems to be pretty difficult to identify.

[King Ken]

So basically this formula is worthless. It doesn't seem any better at predicting success than the actual draft order.

There probably is some sort of statistical indicator of future NBA success out there, but it seems to be pretty difficult to identify.

I wouldn't write them off

The Basics

=> Takes a player’s college data and synthesizes a talent base level the player possesses & aims to project what a particular player’s production will look like as they enter the prime of their career (25-27).

=> Ranks player in 7 skills; age, steals, blocks & rebound rates, 3PM, FTM, PPR (assist/turnover), per 32 min

=> Takes out deductions for obvious red flags; height for position, injury,conference strength.

=> Produces a single score for each player

Strengths

=> Good at identifying if a player is overvalued by traditional scouting methodologies i.e. Wesley Johnson, Jonny Flynn, Anthony Bennett, Joe Alexander et al.

=> Good at identifying if a player is undervalued by traditional scouting methodologies i.e. Kenneth Faried, Terrence Jones, Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thomspon et al.

=> Good at ranking the elite prospects i.e. Demarcus Cousins, Paul George, Stephen Curry, James Harden

=> Good at identifying potential red flags and question marks about players i.e. Derrick Williams, Dion Waiters, BJ Mullens et al.

Weaknesses

=> Not good at ranking 1 and done Freshman who compile average statistical outputs i.e. DeMar Derozen, Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradly et al.

=> Not good at showing what a player’s game is like aesthetically

=> Overvalues players that demonstrate all around games i.e. Tyler Honeycutt, Al-Farouq Aminu

=> Undervalues players with 1 elite skill set but sub-average overall i.e. Kendall Marshall, Jodie Meeks

=> Undervalues older players i.e. Damian Lillard, Chandler Parsons

Interpreting Results

=> Younger players who get steals, blocks, and go to the ft line will score better than pure ‘skill guys’

=> +/- 1 pt might be negligible, i.e. not much of difference between a guy that ranks 25.25 & 26.25

=> Rankings are not definitive, the point is to show what the correct draft range of a player should be

=> Older players are at disadvantage, age is the most valuable component in the projection

=> If a player has a poor rebound rate for position or can’t shoot 3s it may severly impact his overall score

=> For Bigs that don’t shoot 3s I measure offensive rebounds instead, thus their scores may skew higher

[sweetcity]

very cool, wish I could see 2015!

[LofJ]

I think this measures future offensive output pretty well, defense not so much though. Which makes sense because defense is much harder to track statistically, that's the hard gritty work that scouts get paid to do.

[Mr Sixer]

I assumed that an analysis of the 2015 prospects would have been done due to your title...

That said, I think this analysis is obviously flawed, but great for finding draft steals and undervalued picks. If I have no other information and have a mid to late 1st, or even an early 2nd, I think that picking a player found high on this list is a great way to find a diamond in the rough.

[EricAnderson]

Lol I've always said judging stats is such a bad way to gauge prospects..The college and pro game couldn't be more different..add in the fact that most college coaches are micro managers who give players very little freedom..

How a player translates to the pros is mostly physical tools..does he have a position in the pros..how good can he dribble shoot pass etc even the eye test in a game like basketball is useful if you've been watching the game long enough

[King Ken]

Lol I've always said judging stats is such a bad way to gauge prospects..The college and pro game couldn't be more different..add in the fact that most college coaches are micro managers who give players very little freedom..

How a player translates to the pros is mostly physical tools..does he have a position in the pros..how good can he dribble shoot pass etc even the eye test in a game like basketball is useful if you've been watching the game long enough

Stats and data likes this helps.

Adams is clearly an outlier.

[King Ken]

No Léonard in 2011?

Leonard was ranked in the top 5 on his list. Go to the actual site.

[brackdan70]

Seems like just using one Heuristic knowledge would be just as good. though it is projecting 26 - 27 years so probably can't judge the last 3 really yet.