Seniors drafted in the NBA lottery since 1997

greenandgold · Post #1 » by **greenandgold** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:00 pm

Tim Duncan and Lillard are exceptions to a strong rule. Don't draft seniors! And really don't draft white seniors! The odds are strongly against you.

1997: Duncan, Keith Van Horn, Antonio Daniels, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, Austin Croshere, Derek Anderson
1998: Lafrentz, Bonzi Wells, Michael Doleac, Keon Clark, Michael Dickerson
1999: Szerbiak, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Trajan Langdon
2000: Kenyon Martin, Etan Thomas, Courtney Alexander, Mateen Cleaves
2001: Battier
2002: Fred Jones
2003: Hinrich, Collison, Marcus Banks
2004: Araujo, Luke Jackson
2005: Channing Frye
2006: Sheldon Williams, Roy, Foye, Hilton Armstrong
2007: Acie Law, Al Thornton
2008: Jason Thompson
2009: Terrence Williams, Tyler Hansborough
2010: None
2011: Jimmer Fredette
2012: Damian Lillard
2013: CJ McCollum
2014: Doug McDermott

Seniors projected to be taken in the lottery in 2015: Frank Kaminsky.

No-Man · Post #2 » by **No-Man** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:10 pm

I dont really know if I see your point, Van Horn, Daniels, Croshere, Anderson were good NBA players, I highly doubt that in any redraft they will go much lower.
The same with the rest, and you are forgetting Martin who was hands down the best player out of that draft class, ROY, Szczerbiak who was an all star, Miller, Terry, Battier, Frye, Hinrich...
Some busted, but other than Araujo, Jackson, Shelden Williams, Law, Armstrong, TWill or Jimmer, there are not big time busts, and that is 7 guys in almost twenty years, and only one of them was a top5 pick, and was a clear bust when he was rated that high, no one understood why Atlanta took Williams there, and it made no sense before the draft, he was never rated there.

greenandgold · Post #3 » by **greenandgold** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:36 pm

NBA All Stars or All NBA drafted in the NBA lottery since 1997

1997: Duncan, Billups, McGrady
1998: Antwain Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk, Pierce
1999: Brand, Francis, Baron Davis, Szerbiak, Rip Hamilton, Shawn Marion
2000: Kenyon Martin
2001: Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Joe Johnson
2002: Yao Ming, Amare, Caron Butler
2003: Lebron James, Carmelo, Bosh, Wade, Kaman,
2004: Howard, Deng, Devin Harris, Iguodala
2005: Bogut, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Bynum
2006: Aldridge, Roy
2007: Durant, Horford, Noah
2008: Rose, Westbrook, Love, Lopez, Hibbert
2009: Griffin, Harden, Curry, Derozan
2010: Wall, Cousins, George
2011: Irving, Thomspon
2012: Davis, Lillard

With a couple of exceptions this list doesn't intersect with the list above of seniors drafted in the lottery. I think we all agree that what NBA teams are looking for in the lottery is All-Stars and All NBA players, not marginal role players like Van Horn, Croshere and the rest.

If you're looking to draft a star in the lottery the odds are better if you draft a freshman or sophomore or a young Euro. It is the rule validated by history.

greenandgold · Post #4 » by **greenandgold** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:41 pm

Fischella wrote:I dont really know if I see your point, Van Horn, Daniels, Croshere, Anderson were good NBA players, I highly doubt that in any redraft they will go much lower.

Van Horn was drafted 7 spots ahead of Tracy McGrady! Yes, he'd go a just little bit lower in a re-draft.

Im Your Father · Post #5 » by **Im Your Father** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:54 pm

The Magic took Redick 11th in 2006 and he was a senior as well. I'd say he's probably the sixth best player from that draft, although granted, 2006 was definitely a down year.

Post #6 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:21 pm

greenandgold wrote:If you're looking to draft a star in the lottery the odds are better if you draft a freshman or sophomore or a young Euro. It is the rule validated by history.

How many guys drafted at 13 or 14, where Kaminsky is projected, have been all stars in the last 20 years? Probably not many. Having said that, I don't really want the Suns to draft him.

kennydorglas · Post #7 » by **kennydorglas** » Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:29 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
greenandgold wrote:If you're looking to draft a star in the lottery the odds are better if you draft a freshman or sophomore or a young Euro. It is the rule validated by history.

How many guys drafted at 13 or 14, where Kaminsky is projected, have been all stars in the last 20 years? Probably not many. Having said that, I don't really want the Suns to draft him.

Just Kobe #13 and Peja #14. This is a really bad spot for talent.

Dale Davis #13 in '91
Tim Hardaway #14 in '89
Dan Majerle #14 in '88
Karl Malone #13 in '85
Clyde Drexler #14 in '83

Post #8 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:38 pm

kennydorglas wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
greenandgold wrote:If you're looking to draft a star in the lottery the odds are better if you draft a freshman or sophomore or a young Euro. It is the rule validated by history.

How many guys drafted at 13 or 14, where Kaminsky is projected, have been all stars in the last 20 years? Probably not many. Having said that, I don't really want the Suns to draft him.

Just Kobe #13 and Peja #14. This is a really bad spot for talent.

Dale Davis #13 in '91
Tim Hardaway #14 in '89
Dan Majerle #14 in '88
Karl Malone #13 in '85
Clyde Drexler #14 in '83

And of course future all star TJ Warren. But yeah, not many.

Cammo101 · Post #9 » by **Cammo101** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:27 pm

The take away here is not to avoid drafting seniors. Plenty of those guys lived up to their draft spot. The take away is to be careful when evaluating seniors, because there is probably a reason they went to school all four years.

BoutPractice · Post #10 » by **BoutPractice** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:37 pm

This wasn't always true, but in the straight from HS/one-and-done era, seniors definitely look weak as a group. (Of course there are always exceptions like Lillard)

I don't think many people are expecting greatness from Kaminsky anyway. The days of overrating seniors are pretty much over, just like the days of overrating totally unknown European prospects.