Overrating the Unknown

[Ken D]

Check out the last 10 years of lottery picks that didn’t play college basketball:

2014 – Dante Exum #5
2014 – Dario Saric #12
2011 – Jonas Valanciunas #5
2011 – Jan Vesely #6
2011 – Bismack Biyombo #7
2009 – Ricky Rubio #5
2009 – Brandon Jennings #10
2008 – Danilo Gallinari #6
2007 – Yi Jianlian #6
2006 – Andrea Bargnani #1
2006 – Saer Sene #10
2006 – Thabo Sefolosha #13
2005 – Martell Webster #6
2005 – Andrew Bynum #10
2005 – Fran Vasquez #11
2005 – Yaroslav Korolev #12

This group seems to range from solid pick to horrendous pick with probably Andrew Bynum being the only clearly under drafted player and considering the injuries and him being out of the league now that one could probably even be debated.

Exum and Saric obviously still have plenty of time to prove worthy of their draft position. Valanciunas, Jennings, Gallinari & probably Sefolosha are fine where they were drafted. Rubio is a good player but would go a little lower in a re-draft. But the remaining half of this group (8 out of the 16) were complete disasters and that includes Bargnani at #1.

That’s a 50% complete disaster rate, 43.75% fine, and 6.25% steal.

Not good.

The point being that I think GMs and scouts continue to overrate and draft these players too high. There’s just a higher level of uncertainty with these players and for whatever reason they continue to draft these players too high rather than too low.

The question is do decision makers need to adjust and start considering these guys too risky and stop being swayed so favourably by their untapped but probably also never realized potential?

[TheTrooper]

Let's see the known. You have guys like Adam Morrison, Jimmer, Derrick Williams, MKG, Meyers Leonard, Austin Rivers, Thomas Robinson, Barnes , Wesley Johnson, Udoh, Al-Farouq Aminu etc....

Lotery busts - international or American will always happen.

[Mustinjo]

Putting someone like Saric, Rubio or Valanciunas in the same category as guys like Biyombo, Sene or Yi is stupid. Saric, Jonas and some other European guys were competing in meaningful tournaments even before they were 18 so there was absolutely nothing "unknown" to the nba people about them. I would even argue that they were a much more known commodities than some one and done college players. Saying international players are overrated by default because they don't play college bball and by that logic are more risky draft picks is ignorant.

[greenandgold]

Point taken. You've got to be careful with guys who have been hiding in international minor leagues.

The guys who have had success in major European leagues are going to do fine in the NBA. Nikola Mirotic is a prime example, from Spanish League MVP to terrific NBA rookie.

This year's draft? I wouldn't worry too much about Porzingis and Hezonja because of the high level European experience.

Gotta be careful with Mudiay, but he's been scouted extensively on the high school circuit. There's certainly risk there, though.

[Ken D]

Of course there are lottery picks who played college basketball and were busts, that’s not the point.

The point is out of all the college lottery picks the last 10 years would they be considered complete disasters for where they were selected in the draft at a rate of 50%?

There is a pretty disproportionate miscalculation on the players who we didn’t have the benefit of seeing play college basketball.

I mean does anyone feel more certain projecting Mudiay, Porzingis & Herzonja than you do with Okafor, Willie Cauley-Stein & Kaminsky?

There’s probably not a single GM in the league that would answer yes to that question.

[Von Bismarck]

I mean does anyone feel more certain projecting Mudiay, Porzingis & Herzonja than you do with Okafor, Willie Cauley-Stein & Kaminsky?

American college league is about the strenght of Eurocup where Porzingis plays but Eurocup has a serious factor because there are no games to relax and every game is a must win.

On the other hand, I would like to ask you, how many of those college players would even get the chance to play in Euroleague in a club such as Barcelona or Real Madrid is? Latest example is Jennings, he did well though, but for example Hezonja plays in way stronger club than Lottomatica was and his competition is way more serious than Jennings'. Also Hezonja has better numbers than Jennings had.

Not to mention that young Euros play against grown men in both Euroleague and Eurocup, they do not play against the kids of their age.

I can't say about Mudiay because I personally find Chinese league to be a joke, nothing more than that. It's not a serious league, defence almost doesn't exist there. Typical gun'n'run basketball.

[BoutPractice]

Some teams, such as the Spurs, seem to do a fine job evaluating "unknown" players by simply doing a lot more homework than their competitors.

I guess that's what it comes down to. Take Hezonja, for example. It's not as if there isn't a lot of tape to watch of him going up against high level professional basketball players. If you look for the right things, you will find at least as much information about him, if not more, as you will about Towns.

Yes, the Euroleague game is different, but so is the NCAA game. With enough experience you can make the adjustments for each kind of league. ("In the NBA they do a lot more of this, so those tools will be magnified while those skills will become less relevant", etc.).

[Von Bismarck]

Indeed, you made the point in Hezonja's case. You could have watched him every Tuesday/Thursday in Euroleague for past 6 months in a row now. Also, you can find decent material from ACB league which appears to be the strongest league in Europe with 4 Euroleague and 3-4 Eurocup teams playing there.

Eurocup is a bit different, it's lower tier European competition and is not nearly as strong as Euroleague is.

[BoutPractice]

I agree about Eurocup.

Although I've always been of the opinion that the NCAA isn't really relevant because of the level of "competition" per se. The competition is mostly terrible.

It's relevant because for some players, it's their first experience with real "coaching" (something Europeans usually already know by the time they get to the league)... their first encounter with "organized basketball" (again, same thing)... it also matters because of the intense pressure and scrutiny they face on some of the teams, like Kentucky... and because, among all their adversaries, they will occasionally play against future colleagues, including stars (so it's interesting to see how a Towns type prospect fares against a shot blocking 7 footer he will likely meet again in the NBA, even if said 7 footer is surrounded with scrubs and the team itself isn't that great).

[ImHeisenberg]

Check out the last 10 years of lottery picks that didn’t play college basketball:

2014 – Dante Exum #5
2014 – Dario Saric #12
2011 – Jonas Valanciunas #5
2011 – Jan Vesely #6
2011 – Bismack Biyombo #7
2009 – Ricky Rubio #5
2009 – Brandon Jennings #10
2008 – Danilo Gallinari #6
2007 – Yi Jianlian #6
2006 – Andrea Bargnani #1
2006 – Saer Sene #10
2006 – Thabo Sefolosha #13
2005 – Martell Webster #6
2005 – Andrew Bynum #10
2005 – Fran Vasquez #11
2005 – Yaroslav Korolev #12

This group seems to range from solid pick to horrendous pick with probably Andrew Bynum being the only clearly under drafted player and considering the injuries and him being out of the league now that one could probably even be debated.

Exum and Saric obviously still have plenty of time to prove worthy of their draft position. Valanciunas, Jennings, Gallinari & probably Sefolosha are fine where they were drafted. Rubio is a good player but would go a little lower in a re-draft. But the remaining half of this group (8 out of the 16) were complete disasters and that includes Bargnani at #1.

That’s a 50% complete disaster rate, 43.75% fine, and 6.25% steal.

Not good.

The point being that I think GMs and scouts continue to overrate and draft these players too high. There’s just a higher level of uncertainty with these players and for whatever reason they continue to draft these players too high rather than too low.

The question is do decision makers need to adjust and start considering these guys too risky and stop being swayed so favourably by their untapped but probably also never realized potential?

I'm failing to comprehend what your basis for "success" is. Most picks bust out of the league after their first contract. Most of those players have been effective in the league. And, as time has gone on, international scouting has improved greatly.

You're comparing them in a vacuum against all NBA players, not against the players that were drafted around them- which is the reality that the NBA team's faced when drafting them.

Your sample size is absolutely too small to carry any weight to it, I'm sorry. Invalid argument.

[pohani komarac]

Korolev was unknown, didn't play important minutes for any stronger club when drafted

Rubio was playing Olympic finals vs NBA stars and superstars and played for top Euroleague team before he got drafted

Biyombo was drafted based on his Nike Hoop Summit performace. It's much more evidance that you don't base your scouting on all star freak shows

[Cammo101]

There are occasional unknowns, guys like Korolev or Sene who see to come out of nowhere late in the process. Most of this list isn't those guys though. Ricky Rubio had played in high level leagues and tournaments since he was 15, he was more known than some of the upper classmen in his draft.

Do unknowns bust more frequently? Probably, because they are usually very raw and selected based on tool. But, we see that same kind of thing with college players as well. Busts will always happen and the best you can do is educate yourself as well as you can on a player and then hope for the best.

[jman3134]

Yeah, to be honest, you clearly do not know what you are talking about here. A complete unknown like a Giannis is not comparable to a Ricky Rubio, who had been playing at a very high level for a long time.

It's actually the opposite imo. There is a higher level of certainty, but upside may be capped, given that they have already played at a higher level against professionals in some instances. Not Korolev etc.

[andyhop]

The other problem with this is that it assumes a 50% bust rate for lottery picks is abnormal, whereas if you look at previous drafts the bust rate is normally at this level.

[marcush]

They are only unknowns if you don't watch them. Its not as though these guys playing Euroleague are being hidden away in some obscure arena with no TV coverage with the aim of shielding them from scouts, thus leading to some sort of artificial potential component. Its kind of a big deal. These are some of the most highly scouted and scrutinized draftable players.

[SlowPaced]

Dario Saric and Ricky Rubio weren't unknown in the slighest.

[Johnlac1]

Let's see the known. You have guys like Adam Morrison, Jimmer, Derrick Williams, MKG, Meyers Leonard, Austin Rivers, Thomas Robinson, Barnes , Wesley Johnson, Udoh, Al-Farouq Aminu etc....

Lotery busts - international or American will always happen.

If your definition of a bust is a lottery pick who is something short of a superstar, then there are all sorts of busts playing in the NBA. A bust is someone who never comes close to being a decent player. MKG is the best def. player on Charlotte and looking better and bettr. Leonard is starting to come around for Portland. Barnes starts and averages double figures for GS. Those aren't busts. Busts are players who have basically produced nothing or next to nothing.

[HotelVitale]

Check out the last 10 years of lottery picks that didn’t play college basketball:
2014 – Dante Exum #5
2014 – Dario Saric #12
2011 – Jonas Valanciunas #5

You're showing a bias (maybe an unconscious one) by not including a bunch of giant steals from the last couple of years: Giannis and Gobert, arguably the two best players from the 2013 draft, plus Schroder, Papanikalou, Bogdanoivc, Fournier, etc--all guys who have shown to be worthy rotation players despite low draft positions.

Anyone who's watched enough drafts knows that it's higher risk/reward on the real unknowns. Sometimes people get overhyped and people focus too much on upside--e.g. Biyombo--but that's because those guys have big upsides that you're betting on. Giannis should be the perfect case--the guy had only played against mid-level Greek high schoolers but seemed like he had the size and skill to be great. No one really knew, but you gotta place a bet or else let him fall to the gambler after you. I'm not sure it's that much different for guys like Steven Adams or Drummond, who played small roles for a year in D1.

[HotelVitale]

That’s a 50% complete disaster rate, 43.75% fine, and 6.25% steal.

Also, your percentages look way off. From just the past 4 drafts, here’s how I would evaluate guys using a scale of one to five (one=total bust, five=giant steal at his draft position):

2013: Giannis (5) and Gobert (5) are enormous, franchise-changing steals, potential all-NBA players drafted in the back half of the 1st round. Schroder (4) is a great get at #17. Jury’s out on Karasaev (1.5), while Nogueira (1) seems like a bust.
2012: Fournier (3) seems like solid value, decent backup in the 20s. That’s it for 2012.
2011: Mirotic is a huge steal (4.5), looks like a potential all-star at #23. Motiejunas (4) was great value at #20. Kanter (3.5) and Valanciunas (3.5) are good value as above average starters, not steals but certainly not busts. Bogdanovic (3.5) is good value at #30 too. Vesely (1) is one of the worst busts of the last decade, while Biyombo (2) is a disappointment
(2014: too early to tell, but Nurkic and Capela look like steals, who knows for Exum and Caboclo)

So that’s 13 players with a 44 overall score, which equals roughly 3.5. In other words, those picks overall were great. The number would be significantly lower if you looked at all 1st rounders who played D1 ball.

[UcanUwill]

Dario Saric and Ricky Rubio weren't unknown in the slighest.

Absolutely. They were the opposite of unknown really.

To me it seems like this whole thread is created by someone who doesn't know international basketball and perceives that nobody else knows it either.