Roy The Natural wrote:I don't see that level of defense coming from Isaac at all... I think your projecting some serious ability unto his defense without reasonable supporting evidence here. To say that his pessimistic view is that high a level of defense is lunacy, I'm sorry... It just is. If that was his defensive floor he's easily looking at vying for the top overall pick... which is extremely doubtful.
What is your evidence to say he isn't going to be a really good defender? I mean, don't call me out on not relying on evidence when you have done nothing to justify your opinion except for saying "I don't see it" or "Sounds like Aminu to me". As I already stated, evidence at the college level is not only scarce but also even less meaningful than at the NBA level because these players are all projects. Disagree with me as much as you want, I'm aware that my projections don't necessarily turn out to be right. But to criticize my takes based on a lack of supporting evidence while providing nothing but unsubstantiated claims yourself is disingenuous.
Anyhow, you can be assured that I've scouted Isaac a lot this year and make my projections based on video tapes I have. You can reach a different conclusion, sure, but that's not the point. Note that I also wasn't talking about his floor as you seem to be believe. His floor would be what he currently is and obviously I'm not going to argue as if he doesn't develop at all (or even very little). I was talking about a rather pessimistic scenario, there's an important difference. In such a scenario I don't see him as much more than a shooter/off-ball player on offense whereas I'm confident that he's going to be a good defender for reasons I already mentioned (desire, learning curve, only recent transformation, versatily, length, willingness to play physical - all of it combined with flashes he's already shown in his freshman year).
As far as evidence is concerned. Well, I don't excatly like the boxscore to determine defensive impact for ability but unfortunately we don't have more advanced metrics to include in our statistical analysis. He averages 2.8 Steals and 3.4 Blocks per 100 (6.2 combined). For comparison sake - just to name a few players who are similar position-wise and turned out to be good defenders or are regarded as potentially good defenders (numbers from college): Josh Jackson 3.2/2.1 (5.3), Draymond Green 3.1/2.0 (5.1), Kawhi Leonard 2.7/1.1 (3.9), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 1.8/1.9 (3.7), Otto Porter 2.9/1.7 (4.6). Isaac's DBPM is at 6.4. Jackson (5.7), Green (7.3), Leonard (5.2), MKG (4.1) and Porter (5.6) all rank lower except for Green (in his 3rd and 4th year, earlier data isn't available). He's also an absolutely dominant (defensive) rebounder (16.3 TRB per 100, 23.6 DRB%, 8.5 ORB%, 16.4 TRB%) - and while rebounding is affected by roles and schemes a) it's less relevant in college, b) rebounding translates fairly well into the NBA and c) you can see that Isaac is a good rebounder simply by watching tape on him. Obviously, these numbers by themselves don't mean much but it shows that Isaac's defensive boxscore production is up there with - or even better than - the production of some of the best defensive forwards in the NBA when they were in college.
And then you watch him play and realize what potential he has. I made a GIF recently where some of his potential is on full display.
Spoiler:
He checks his man impeccably from start to finish, then rotates over nicely and gets the block after recovering twice and wins the rebound battle with hustle, length and savvy. And it's really not hard to find impressive defensive possessions from Isaac. I believe that his defense translates well into the NBA - after he gets used to the physicality - considering the tools and mindset he has. That's why I believe that him reaching the level of current Durant defensively - perhaps even with more consistency depending on his offensive role - is a reasonable projection and that would be a borderline All-Defensive Forward.
He has the potential to be a star, for sure. I'm just not convinced he reaches that plateau or even close to it.
Sure, fair enough. Neither am I.
I will only add that, as already mentioned above, I believe the determining factor for reaching his potential is going to be his improvement on offense (in basically every area (perhaps most importantly his handles but also finishing around the rim, shooting consistency, passing game, coordination and exploiting mismatches consistently)) and not his defense. I can't say with certainty how good exactly he's going to be defensively but I see him being a good defender for his position at worst and a great defender at best regardless.
