Predict the Risers and Sliders

[Mulhollanddrive]

Using the DraftExpress Lottery Rankings as of March 20, who will be the biggest movers on draft day?

1. Fultz
2. Ball
3. Jackson
4. Tatum
5. Fox
6. Smith
7. Markkanen
8. Monk
9. Isaac
10. Williams
11. Ntilikina
12. Bridges
13. Jackson
14. Ferguson

[Dr Positivity]

Fallers

Fox - Wrong time to be the guard who can't shoot

Josh Jackson - Shooting concerns, character concerns, age of a sophomore, he'll still go high but could be below players like Tatum and Smith

Ferguson - DX's ranking is one of those that makes you wonder if Givony is pumping him

Ntilikina - I suspect teams are more worried about his production than currently advertised

Risers

Bridges - Good fit in modern game, young

[916fan]

Risers:
Miles Bridges
Jonathan Isaac
Frank Ntilikina

Fallers:
Terrence Ferguson
DeAaron Fox
Justin Jackson

[DRK]

Would not be surprised to see DSJ do a Trey Burke fall and out of the Top 10.

I think Jonathan Isaac could go top 5 based on his potential and measurements being intruiging to some GMs.

[RationalGaze]

Slide
Markkanen
Isaac
Jackson
Robert
Ferguson
OG
Patton

Risers
Bridges
Edrice
Hartenstein
Ivan
Zach
Dwayne
Swan
T.J. Leaf
Luka Doncic

[Brauer]

Markannen and Isaac will rise. Dennis Smith will fall. I was pretty low on Josh Jackson but his performance against Michigan State made me reconsider, given his new found shot and his confidence in shooting it. I got a feeling that Fox will be a King. Watch them reach for Justin Jackson too if UNC wins it all

[Dr Positivity]

Markannen and Isaac will rise. Dennis Smith will fall. I was pretty low on Josh Jackson but his performance against Michigan State made me reconsider, given his new found shot and his confidence in shooting it. I got a feeling that Fox will be a King. Watch them reach for Justin Jackson too if UNC wins it all

Kings draft Monk leading to Vivek thinking Monk/Hield is the Splash Bros

[doordoor123]

Fallers

Fox - Wrong time to be the guard who can't shoot

Josh Jackson - Shooting concerns, character concerns, age of a sophomore, he'll still go high but could be below players like Tatum and Smith

Ferguson - DX's ranking is one of those that makes you wonder if Givony is pumping him

Ntilikina - I suspect teams are more worried about his production than currently advertised

Risers

Bridges - Good fit in modern game, young

Really don't agree with Fox, I actually think he's going to rise. He's young enough where his shot can improve and he has such a great motor/motor usually succeeds. He's going to do really well in work outs. I personally would take him #3 overall.

[MotownMadness]

I think Markanen will drop much like Ellenson last year. There are defensive concerns with these type of guys that teams are hesitant about. He's clearly a much better shooter then Ellenson though.

[The-Power]

I think Markanen will drop much like Ellenson last year. There are defensive concerns with these type of guys that teams are hesitant about.

Big white guys who can shoot? Everybody talks about defensive concerns with Markkanen but I've rarely seen arguments for it. Markkanen is long, mobile and active on defense. Not much of a rim protector but he's been absolutely fine for Arizona - especially as of late.

[shawn_hemp]

Markkanen and Malik Monk both get slapped with the "poor defender" tag by default

Anyone who can really score the basketball is automatically labeled a bad defender

It's just what happens

[kalenclayton]

Markkanen and Malik Monk both get slapped with the "poor defender" tag by default

Anyone who can really score the basketball is automatically labeled a bad defender

It's just what happens

The couple times that I've seen Markkanen play have been pretty impressive from a defensive standpoint. It looks like they were running a 2-3 zone and Markkanen would play the middle man. He won't be able to camp in the paint like he did in the 2 games I saw, but he did a really good job holding his position and keeping his hands up. He seems to have some good BBIQ for a youngster.

[whitehops]

Markkanen and Malik Monk both get slapped with the "poor defender" tag by default

Anyone who can really score the basketball is automatically labeled a bad defender

It's just what happens

to be fair both those players have poor defensive metrics compared to the other first round prospects.

[Coeur]

Rise: leaf, bam, bridges

Fall: fox, Isaac

[jonjames]

Risers: fox bridges adebayo
Fall: smith jr markannen og anunoby

[doordoor123]

Risers: fox bridges adebayo
Fall: smith jr markannen og anunoby

I think you're right on the money. Fox is too athletic to fall and with players at the top falling a little, he could rise.

Bridges will rise because of how athletic he is, his motor and he's going to out-hustle players in workouts. When other players fall he's going to take their place because he's right outside of that first tier (because of his wingspan and height) in many people's books. Also if he's longer and taller than previously noted he will jump.

Adebayo is now underrated with a lot of mocks taking him at the end of the first round. I wouldn't be surprised if a team falls in love with him and takes him around 13-18.

It's hard to see Smith Jr falling too much, but he's undersized and people are afraid of his upside. However, recently in the NBA undersized guards have had success. The only thing I am certain of is some team early in the draft will fall in love with him because he already has had fans for quite a while.

It's hard to tell with Markkanen. He's a 7 footer with a good wingspan that can stretch the floor. In most cases than not I see him rising. Lack of defense is no reason to give up on a scorer. However, Markkanen is a shooter. He doesn't really have a diverse game and that could hurt his stock. If he falls it's because other players in the top group are rising. I think you have to take Markkanen top 5 just for his size and shooting though.

OG Anunoby obviously with his injury, but I also think teams will see his fall as a way to snatch him up. That wingspan and height is not something you give up on.

[The-Power]

However, Markkanen is a shooter. He doesn't really have a diverse game and that could hurt his stock.

Markkanen shoots 70% at the rim (25.6% of his shots, 50% assisted), 41.2% on 2P jumpers (31.6% of his shots, 22.9% assisted) and 44.1% on 3's (42.8% of his shots, 94.1% assisted). 0.441 FTr on top of it.
-> https://hoop-math.com/Arizona2017.php

Over the last 10 Games Markkanen scored 17.2 PPG and made only one (!) 3P per game. He has shown versatility on drives, post-ups and as a finisher. He has shown that he can finish with his either hand around the rim and the numbers above prove that he can create his own shots inside. He's a scorer who can shoot, not a shooter who can score only because he can shoot.

He has flaws as a scorer, sure. But this is true for every prospect in the draft and certainly for every big man - not only this year but every year. His flaws don't indicate at all that he's merely a shooter at the next level or that his scoring game isn't diverse. Which big man in college is a more diverse scorer than Markkanen with even remotely similar volume and efficiency? You can probably count them on one hand even when we're being generous regarding the criteria.

Re: Defense. This issue has been addressed multiple times by now so I'm not going to go into it again. But I have yet to see the argument as to why we should be concerned about his defense and its translation into the NBA. Markkanen isn't a great prospect because of his defense, true. But he's also not a lesser prospect because of it and that's what a lot of people seem to imply for whatever reason.

[doordoor123]

However, Markkanen is a shooter. He doesn't really have a diverse game and that could hurt his stock.

Markkanen shoots 70% at the rim (25.6% of his shots, 50% assisted), 41.2% on 2P jumpers (31.6% of his shots, 22.9% assisted) and 44.1% on 3's (42.8% of his shots, 94.1% assisted). 0.441 FTr on top of it.
-> https://hoop-math.com/Arizona2017.php

Over the last 10 Games Markkanen scored 17.2 PPG and made only one (!) 3P per game. He has shown versatility on drives, post-ups and as a finisher. He has shown that he can finish with his either hand around the rim and the numbers above prove that he can create his own shots inside. He's a scorer who can shoot, not a shooter who can score only because he can shoot.

He has flaws as a scorer, sure. But this is true for every prospect in the draft and certainly for every big man - not only this year but every year. His flaws don't indicate at all that he's merely a shooter at the next level or that his scoring game isn't diverse. Which big man in college is a more diverse scorer than Markkanen with even remotely similar volume and efficiency? You can probably count them on one hand even when we're being generous regarding the criteria.

Re: Defense. This issue has been addressed multiple times by now so I'm not going to go into it again. But I have yet to see the argument as to why we should be concerned about his defense and its translation into the NBA. Markkanen isn't a great prospect because of his defense, true. But he's also not a lesser prospect because of it and that's what a lot of people seem to imply for whatever reason.

I'm not saying he isn't efficient at thall college level mostly playing against smaller guys, I'm saying his scoring ability really isn't that great around the rim. I stand by saying he's a shooter because that's his thing at the next level. He's tall with a good release point. In the NBA he would get bullied down low and doesn't have the frame to not get bullied, hence being a shooter. And while he could be a good P&R partner, in the NBA his screens won't be as effective and he doesn't have great hands catching the ball while moving. So yes, shooter. For his size he can handle a little, but more for one step or a two step drive to the basket. He won't be someone that drives in the NBA. He's too tall and can't get low enough, he would be stripped most times if he were to drive in the NBA.

[RipCity71252]

Risers: Jawun Evans, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell (I could see all in the 13-20 range), Frank Mason (Late 1st, early 2nd)

Sliders: Frank Ntilikina, Terrance Ferguson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luke Kennard, Alec Peters (Undrafted)

[Disposable Hero]

Markkanen and Malik Monk both get slapped with the "poor defender" tag by default

Anyone who can really score the basketball is automatically labeled a bad defender

It's just what happens

especially when they are terrible defenders as well like Monk and Markkanen are