Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall?

Draft talk all year round

Moderators: Marcus, Duke4life831

User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 93,267
And1: 57,044
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#21 » by bwgood77 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:09 pm

Michael Lucky wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to need. If teams feel like a player is superior to another at that position in the draft they will pick that player. I do believe any of those three teams would pick Fultz with the first pick. Then again, i know it's possible that Magic won't be able to resist drafting Ball, but from what i've seen he will likely allow Pelinka to make the choice.


Sure, but I'm sure all the teams that will be in the lottery won't have Fultz at the top of their draft board. They will probably have him in the top tier, and may go for the greater need.

As for the Suns, for the long term Fultz might make more sense though, and to move on from Bledsoe. Or maybe Ball throwing lobs to Chriss, setting up Booker, etc, since the Suns like to run.
User avatar
Cammo101
Mr. Mock Draft
Posts: 30,388
And1: 1,765
Joined: Feb 11, 2006
Location: Austin, TX
     

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#22 » by Cammo101 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:22 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
Michael Lucky wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to need. If teams feel like a player is superior to another at that position in the draft they will pick that player. I do believe any of those three teams would pick Fultz with the first pick. Then again, i know it's possible that Magic won't be able to resist drafting Ball, but from what i've seen he will likely allow Pelinka to make the choice.


Sure, but I'm sure all the teams that will be in the lottery won't have Fultz at the top of their draft board. They will probably have him in the top tier, and may go for the greater need.

As for the Suns, for the long term Fultz might make more sense though, and to move on from Bledsoe. Or maybe Ball throwing lobs to Chriss, setting up Booker, etc, since the Suns like to run.


Bledsoe, Booker, Jackson, Chriss, Bender, Len...

That core is so nice.
User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 93,267
And1: 57,044
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#23 » by bwgood77 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:34 pm

Cammo101 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
Michael Lucky wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to need. If teams feel like a player is superior to another at that position in the draft they will pick that player. I do believe any of those three teams would pick Fultz with the first pick. Then again, i know it's possible that Magic won't be able to resist drafting Ball, but from what i've seen he will likely allow Pelinka to make the choice.


Sure, but I'm sure all the teams that will be in the lottery won't have Fultz at the top of their draft board. They will probably have him in the top tier, and may go for the greater need.

As for the Suns, for the long term Fultz might make more sense though, and to move on from Bledsoe. Or maybe Ball throwing lobs to Chriss, setting up Booker, etc, since the Suns like to run.


Bledsoe, Booker, Jackson, Chriss, Bender, Len...

That core is so nice.


TJ Warren has been really efficient when healthy too, and although they should have a defensive wing next to Booker, Warren would be a great 6th man scorer off the bench.
User avatar
EvanZ
RealGM
Posts: 12,649
And1: 3,182
Joined: Apr 06, 2011

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#24 » by EvanZ » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:53 pm

Cammo101 wrote:I don't think Fultz is the lock some here seem to think. He's the likely #1 pick and IMO the best player in the draft, but I don't think he's a clear tier above Jackson and Ball, and I think a lot of the intrigue is due to the 2 teams with the most ping pong balls. Boston has a glut of guards already and always have a wonkier board than most. I could easily see them taking Jackson, who fills more of a need. Then you have the Lakers, who stand a good chance of choosing Ball over Fultz to pair with Russell. Then you have Phoenix, with the 3rd most ping pong balls and they have a very clear need at SF and a lot of guards already.

I'd say right now it's 70% or so that Fultz goes #1.


When you say JJ fills more of a need for BOS, do you mean a positional need or a skillset need? I don't like positional needs, but skillset needs are legit to me.
I was right about 3 point shooting. I expect to be right about Tacko Fall. Some coach will figure out how to use Tacko Fall. This movement towards undersized centers will sweep ng back. Back to the basket scorers will return to the NBA.
User avatar
Cammo101
Mr. Mock Draft
Posts: 30,388
And1: 1,765
Joined: Feb 11, 2006
Location: Austin, TX
     

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#25 » by Cammo101 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:58 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Cammo101 wrote:I don't think Fultz is the lock some here seem to think. He's the likely #1 pick and IMO the best player in the draft, but I don't think he's a clear tier above Jackson and Ball, and I think a lot of the intrigue is due to the 2 teams with the most ping pong balls. Boston has a glut of guards already and always have a wonkier board than most. I could easily see them taking Jackson, who fills more of a need. Then you have the Lakers, who stand a good chance of choosing Ball over Fultz to pair with Russell. Then you have Phoenix, with the 3rd most ping pong balls and they have a very clear need at SF and a lot of guards already.

I'd say right now it's 70% or so that Fultz goes #1.


When you say JJ fills more of a need for BOS, do you mean a positional need or a skillset need? I don't like positional needs, but skillset needs are legit to me.


I was speaking mostly positionally, but they kind of go hand in hand. Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart all average over 30 minutes a game right now for the Celtics. They don't really have a need for a ball dominate guard. And while they don't exactly have a glaring hole on the wing either with Crowder and Brown, Jackson's positional flexibility and ability to play off the ball are a better fit for the current Celtics IMO.
User avatar
EvanZ
RealGM
Posts: 12,649
And1: 3,182
Joined: Apr 06, 2011

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#26 » by EvanZ » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:10 pm

Cammo101 wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
Cammo101 wrote:I don't think Fultz is the lock some here seem to think. He's the likely #1 pick and IMO the best player in the draft, but I don't think he's a clear tier above Jackson and Ball, and I think a lot of the intrigue is due to the 2 teams with the most ping pong balls. Boston has a glut of guards already and always have a wonkier board than most. I could easily see them taking Jackson, who fills more of a need. Then you have the Lakers, who stand a good chance of choosing Ball over Fultz to pair with Russell. Then you have Phoenix, with the 3rd most ping pong balls and they have a very clear need at SF and a lot of guards already.

I'd say right now it's 70% or so that Fultz goes #1.


When you say JJ fills more of a need for BOS, do you mean a positional need or a skillset need? I don't like positional needs, but skillset needs are legit to me.


I was speaking mostly positionally, but they kind of go hand in hand. Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart all average over 30 minutes a game right now for the Celtics. They don't really have a need for a ball dominate guard. And while they don't exactly have a glaring hole on the wing either with Crowder and Brown, Jackson's positional flexibility and ability to play off the ball are a better fit for the current Celtics IMO.


I'd like JJ if he could shoot but the odds are he will not be a good or even average shooter in the NBA. I think he's an especially bad fit if he's playing off the ball for anyone really. His defense better be damn good.

I think they take Fultz, and eventually move IT.
I was right about 3 point shooting. I expect to be right about Tacko Fall. Some coach will figure out how to use Tacko Fall. This movement towards undersized centers will sweep ng back. Back to the basket scorers will return to the NBA.
User avatar
Cammo101
Mr. Mock Draft
Posts: 30,388
And1: 1,765
Joined: Feb 11, 2006
Location: Austin, TX
     

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#27 » by Cammo101 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:22 pm

EvanZ wrote:I'd like JJ if he could shoot but the odds are he will not be a good or even average shooter in the NBA. I think he's an especially bad fit if he's playing off the ball for anyone really. His defense better be damn good.

I think they take Fultz, and eventually move IT.


They may well go that route, but I don't think there is any reason to think Jackson will be a sub-par shooter in the NBA. He shot 37% from three this year and is a willing shooter who's form looks good. Plenty of guys with much lesser talent and far worse form than JJ have turned themselves into excellent shooter. It is one of the easier things to fix in a prospect.

I'm not advocating for one option over the other here, simply pointing out Jackson's shooting likely isn't going to scare anyone away.
User avatar
EvanZ
RealGM
Posts: 12,649
And1: 3,182
Joined: Apr 06, 2011

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#28 » by EvanZ » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:26 pm

Cammo101 wrote:
EvanZ wrote:I'd like JJ if he could shoot but the odds are he will not be a good or even average shooter in the NBA. I think he's an especially bad fit if he's playing off the ball for anyone really. His defense better be damn good.

I think they take Fultz, and eventually move IT.


They may well go that route, but I don't think there is any reason to think Jackson will be a sub-par shooter in the NBA. He shot 37% from three this year and is a willing shooter who's form looks good. Plenty of guys with much lesser talent and far worse form than JJ have turned themselves into excellent shooter. It is one of the easier things to fix in a prospect.

I'm not advocating for one option over the other here, simply pointing out Jackson's shooting likely isn't going to scare anyone away.


55% FT rate is a huge red flag for 3pt shooting. His sample size on 3pt shooting is way too small to swamp out that signal. I would be stunned if he develops into a guy who shoots > 33% on 3pters.

I'm also tired of hearing how easy it is to fix shooting. Tell that to Mudiay, MKG, Payton, Gordon, Winslow, Smart, on and on (and all guys we heard "can learn to shoot"). Shooting is not easy to learn. If it were easy everyone could do it. There's a lot of money on the line. More often than not (much more often) bad shooters in college remain bad in the NBA. To assume otherwise (to assume anything other than low probability that is) does not make a good draft strategy to me.
I was right about 3 point shooting. I expect to be right about Tacko Fall. Some coach will figure out how to use Tacko Fall. This movement towards undersized centers will sweep ng back. Back to the basket scorers will return to the NBA.
User avatar
Cammo101
Mr. Mock Draft
Posts: 30,388
And1: 1,765
Joined: Feb 11, 2006
Location: Austin, TX
     

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#29 » by Cammo101 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:36 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Cammo101 wrote:
EvanZ wrote:I'd like JJ if he could shoot but the odds are he will not be a good or even average shooter in the NBA. I think he's an especially bad fit if he's playing off the ball for anyone really. His defense better be damn good.

I think they take Fultz, and eventually move IT.


They may well go that route, but I don't think there is any reason to think Jackson will be a sub-par shooter in the NBA. He shot 37% from three this year and is a willing shooter who's form looks good. Plenty of guys with much lesser talent and far worse form than JJ have turned themselves into excellent shooter. It is one of the easier things to fix in a prospect.

I'm not advocating for one option over the other here, simply pointing out Jackson's shooting likely isn't going to scare anyone away.


55% FT rate is a huge red flag for 3pt shooting. His sample size on 3pt shooting is way too small to swamp out that signal. I would be stunned if he develops into a guy who shoots > 33% on 3pters.

I'm also tired of hearing how easy it is to fix shooting. Tell that to Mudiay, MKG, Payton, Gordon, Winslow, Smart, on and on (and all guys we heard "can learn to shoot"). Shooting is not easy to learn. If it were easy everyone could do it. There's a lot of money on the line. More often than not (much more often) bad shooters in college remain bad in the NBA. To assume otherwise (to assume anything other than low probability that is) does not make a good draft strategy to me.


It depends on the player, but lumping Jackson in with a bunch of guys who are either dreadful shooters or have flawed mechanics isn't really fair either. Jackson will probably never be a guy we see camping out at the three point line waiting for passes, but no one would even want him to be that guy. He is a dynamic athlete who can score in any number of ways. Including outside jumpers.

His free throwing shooting is definitely an issue, but again, I see no reason he can't clean that up to an acceptable level. Jackson is a guy the game seems to come so easy to, if he puts in the work, I don't think there is much he won't be able to do on a basketball court.
User avatar
EvanZ
RealGM
Posts: 12,649
And1: 3,182
Joined: Apr 06, 2011

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#30 » by EvanZ » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:42 pm

Cammo101 wrote:It depends on the player, but lumping Jackson in with a bunch of guys who are either dreadful shooters or have flawed mechanics isn't really fair either. Jackson will probably never be a guy we see camping out at the three point line waiting for passes, but no one would even want him to be that guy. He is a dynamic athlete who can score in any number of ways. Including outside jumpers.

His free throwing shooting is definitely an issue, but again, I see no reason he can't clean that up to an acceptable level. Jackson is a guy the game seems to come so easy to, if he puts in the work, I don't think there is much he won't be able to do on a basketball court.


Can you tell me guys who shot less than 60% on free throws in college and became even acceptable shooters in the NBA? The list will be extremely short (I know because I've looked). The overwhelming odds on someone shooting this poorly on free throws is that he will be a below-average NBA shooter (from everywhere). And those guys are hard to hide with or without the ball.

I like the narrative that "hard work" pays off. But the facts are that most of the time, bad shooters are just bad shooters. Justise Winslow by all accounts is a very hard worker, and he is very talented at a lot of things. But his shooting is bad, will likely remain bad, and will always limit his ceiling. I see the same thing for JJ.

I actually think Isaac projects to be a much better shooter than JJ and will be a safer pick at #3. To me JJ starts to make more sense in the 7-10 range. We'll see in a few years who's right I guess.
I was right about 3 point shooting. I expect to be right about Tacko Fall. Some coach will figure out how to use Tacko Fall. This movement towards undersized centers will sweep ng back. Back to the basket scorers will return to the NBA.
User avatar
Cammo101
Mr. Mock Draft
Posts: 30,388
And1: 1,765
Joined: Feb 11, 2006
Location: Austin, TX
     

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#31 » by Cammo101 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:55 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Cammo101 wrote:It depends on the player, but lumping Jackson in with a bunch of guys who are either dreadful shooters or have flawed mechanics isn't really fair either. Jackson will probably never be a guy we see camping out at the three point line waiting for passes, but no one would even want him to be that guy. He is a dynamic athlete who can score in any number of ways. Including outside jumpers.

His free throwing shooting is definitely an issue, but again, I see no reason he can't clean that up to an acceptable level. Jackson is a guy the game seems to come so easy to, if he puts in the work, I don't think there is much he won't be able to do on a basketball court.


Can you tell me guys who shot less than 60% on free throws in college and became even acceptable shooters in the NBA? The list will be extremely short (I know because I've looked). The overwhelming odds on someone shooting this poorly on free throws is that he will be a below-average NBA shooter (from everywhere). And those guys are hard to hide with or without the ball.

I like the narrative that "hard work" pays off. But the facts are that most of the time, bad shooters are just bad shooters. Justise Winslow by all accounts is a very hard worker, and he is very talented at a lot of things. But his shooting is bad, will likely remain bad, and will always limit his ceiling. I see the same thing for JJ.

I actually think Isaac projects to be a much better shooter than JJ and will be a safer pick at #3. To me JJ starts to make more sense in the 7-10 range. We'll see in a few years who's right I guess.


I would feel a lot worse about his chances if his outside shooting and mid-range game were as bad as his free throw shooting. But, the fact of the matter is he is only below average at the free throw line. To me that feels like a bit of an outlier and a mental thing. Will Jackson ever be an elite shooter? Probably not. Can he become a capable NBA shooter? I think so. And if he does, he may well be the best player from this draft. Because the rest of his game is on point. Time will tell.
Mulhollanddrive
RealGM
Posts: 12,031
And1: 7,907
Joined: Jan 19, 2013

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#32 » by Mulhollanddrive » Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:28 pm

It's a technique thing as Jackson is able to get some decent momentum with his outside shot because he's able to jump into it, at the FT line his flick of the wrist is very difficult to get consistant. I don't think you can draft a wing player shooting 56% FT @ 20 years old no.1 without being a LeBron type standout.

If Fultz doesn't interview or workout too good, maybe that brings Ball back into play for the right team, Tatum a very outside chance.
Upperclass
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,168
And1: 1,762
Joined: Aug 09, 2005

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#33 » by Upperclass » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:43 am

I dont know. But its going to suck for whomever is going to endup having to draft Ball.
The-Power
General Manager
Posts: 9,628
And1: 9,041
Joined: Jan 03, 2014
Location: Germany
   

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#34 » by The-Power » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:59 am

EvanZ wrote:I think he's an especially bad fit if he's playing off the ball for anyone really.

If defenses could completely sag off then it would be an issue. However, even with poor shooting Jackson has proven to be one of the most active off-ball players in college with good handles and scoring ability (which combined means he can create for himself closer to the rim if he is being ignored by the defense). He is also willing to screen (and can distribute as the rolling screener in the PnR), keeps balls alive at the offensive glass and is a lob threat. Not saying his shooting doesn't concern me but I seriously doubt he's going to be an off-ball liability for any team really - there's more to off-ball play than shooting.
jonjames
Veteran
Posts: 2,687
And1: 1,757
Joined: Apr 02, 2016

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#35 » by jonjames » Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:25 am

Mulhollanddrive wrote:To me it's Fultz then the field of guys 2 to 7.

But still there's always a few front offices who think their own way (Hield trade / Bennett no.1 pick) so I'd say 85%.


That hield trade will look genius in few years..he will be a future star.

Back to op if phoenix or lakers get 1st pick..they're going ball.
Hogified05
Rookie
Posts: 1,126
And1: 498
Joined: Jul 09, 2010
Location: Florida
Contact:
   

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#36 » by Hogified05 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:15 am

If Boston got the first pick why the hell would they pick Fultz or Ball? If Boston keeps the pick (which I'm not sure they should) I think they are going pick Jackson. Gives them another body to throw at LeBron with potential of being a great scorer himself.

I think Fultz and Ball would try to sway Boston in not taking them anyways with Thomas there. Stunts their growth.

Sent from my NS-P08A7100 using RealGM mobile app
The hero Orlando deserves is out there somewhere, Dwight was not the one we needed. So we will hunt for him...
Ettorefm
Head Coach
Posts: 7,391
And1: 5,260
Joined: Aug 08, 2011
Location: São Paulo, Brazil
 

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#37 » by Ettorefm » Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:33 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
As for the Suns, for the long term Fultz might make more sense though, and to move on from Bledsoe. Or maybe Ball throwing lobs to Chriss, setting up Booker, etc, since the Suns like to run.


You talk like Fultz has the BBIQ or vision like Mario Chalmers. Of course the Suns would pick Fultz, he's the better prospect.

Anything Ball can do passing the ball, so can Fultz. He just isn't as good in transition playmaking for sure, but Fultz can get Chriss and Booker their numbers easily.

"Since the suns like to Run". And Fultz can't push the pace?
bagsboy wrote:For two hundred years Democrats stole the productive output of slaves and now they seek to enrich themselves with the productive output from the 'rich'. First, Republicans needed to end slavery and next they need to fix taxation with a flat fair tax.
User avatar
bwgood77
Global Mod
Global Mod
Posts: 93,267
And1: 57,044
Joined: Feb 06, 2009
Location: Austin
Contact:
   

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#38 » by bwgood77 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:04 pm

Ettorefm wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
As for the Suns, for the long term Fultz might make more sense though, and to move on from Bledsoe. Or maybe Ball throwing lobs to Chriss, setting up Booker, etc, since the Suns like to run.


You talk like Fultz has the BBIQ or vision like Mario Chalmers. Of course the Suns would pick Fultz, he's the better prospect.

Anything Ball can do passing the ball, so can Fultz. He just isn't as good in transition playmaking for sure, but Fultz can get Chriss and Booker their numbers easily.

"Since the suns like to Run". And Fultz can't push the pace?


I am not sure how you deduced that from the statement. I'd certainly rather the Suns take Fultz than Ball.
bulliedog8
Head Coach
Posts: 6,200
And1: 4,482
Joined: Jun 22, 2015

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#39 » by bulliedog8 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:13 pm

I feel like the lakers should take jackson. Hed be the best fit IMO. Lonzo to the suns would be a great fit also.

Russell Jackson Ingram Julius Zubac
Lonzo Booker Warren Chriss Bender
User avatar
Brauer
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,298
And1: 806
Joined: May 19, 2012
Location: NYC / Puerto Rico
 

Re: Odds Fultz doesn't go first overall? 

Post#40 » by Brauer » Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:56 am

I don't think anyone takes Jackson #1 unless he shows ridiculous shooting in the workouts. He is also a full year older thank Fultz. Whats his ceiling if he never learns to shoot? Iggy?

Return to NBA Draft