In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless

[MEDIC]

Westbrook's career stat line playing with Durant on a championship contender:
34:12min, 42.9% FG, 0.5 3s, 29.1 3%, 4.7 FTM, 81.6% FT, 4.8 REB, 6.8 AST, 3.5 TO, 1.5 ST, 19.0 PPG

Your boy Bay's career stat line playing with (mostly) scrubs for 2+ years:
18:06min, 41.4% FG, 0.6 3s, 35.9 3%. 2.2 FTM, 82.2% FT, 1.8 REB, 2.8 AST, 1.4 TO, 0.5 ST, 8.1 PPG

I love BayBay's fanboys.. Logic doesn't really come into play

What's the point of comparing a player's raw stats when one has played 34mpg & the other has only played 18mpg?

You have to compare apples to apples.

Those numbers actually look quite decent on Jerryd's behalf. They'd look pretty similar on a per 36 basis. Or of you choose per 34 or per 18.......whatever.

What do you think Westbrooks numbers would be playing 18mpg off the bench (mostly) with a bunch of scrubs?

[Bsee]

Westbrook's career stat line playing with Durant on a championship contender:
34:12min, 42.9% FG, 0.5 3s, 29.1 3%, 4.7 FTM, 81.6% FT, 4.8 REB, 6.8 AST, 3.5 TO, 1.5 ST, 19.0 PPG

Your boy Bay's career stat line playing with (mostly) scrubs for 2+ years:
18:06min, 41.4% FG, 0.6 3s, 35.9 3%. 2.2 FTM, 82.2% FT, 1.8 REB, 2.8 AST, 1.4 TO, 0.5 ST, 8.1 PPG

I love BayBay's fanboys.. Logic doesn't really come into play

What's the point of comparing a player's raw stats when one has played 34mpg & the other has only played 18mpg?

You have to compare apples to apples.

Those numbers actually look quite decent on Jerryd's behalf. They'd look pretty similar on a per 36 basis. Or of you choose per 34 or per 18.......whatever.

What do you think Westbrooks numbers would be playing 18mpg off the bench (mostly) with a bunch of scrubs?

This. you speak of Logic and then you cite that??

[dTox]

I miss the dude, I'm glad to see he's found a good role in Memphis.

[rove]

You can't project stats reliably - that's logic.

If you say this seasons' PER so far will sustain for the career (hell, even this season), then Lowry will be better than LBJ (32.31 PER vs 30.79). Does that make sense to you?

By saying double BayBay's minutes he'll become Westbrook, that's an illogical argument. The reason he's not playing starter minutes is because he can't - 4 teams agreed on that! And currently he's playing on a team that's starting Conley - he is no Chris Paul. If Baybay i's THAT good, he'll play.

[Indeed]

Bayless is talented, but he is not capable of multi-tasking, which limited his decision making.
He is a great off the bench player who committed in playing defense, and if he can improve his decision making, he can be a good starting PG.

I like Bayless to be a Raptors, as long as he is not playing the point on offense. Players like Delfino can compliment him off the bench.

[Scase]

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot. The only reason to have resigned him is if he could have replaced Jose. Based on his bench play for us it was clear he could not. There was no way he was becoming our starter over Lowry making him another (albeit less overpaid) bad contract for this team.

[Bsee]

You can't project stats reliably - that's logic.

If you say this seasons' PER so far will sustain for the career (hell, even this season), then Lowry will be better than LBJ (32.31 PER vs 30.79). Does that make sense to you?

By saying double BayBay's minutes he'll become Westbrook, that's an illogical argument. The reason he's not playing starter minutes is because he can't - 4 teams agreed on that! And currently he's playing on a team that's starting Conley - he is no Chris Paul. If Baybay i's THAT good, he'll play.

It's not illogical because my argument isn't based on the notion that Bayless will be Westbrook b/c if you double his minutes his stats will look similar. It's based on the fact that Bayless was always more highly touted and at the very least just as touted as Westbrook up until draft night. Bayless was projected to be better than Westbrook. If you told any scout that Westbrook had a better offensive skillset than Bayless in 2008 they would have disagreed with you. Bayless and Westbrook are similar players both with an elite level of talent.

My argument is that Westbrook got the opportunity and Bayless didn't, that happens in sports. Some guys never pan out because they never found the right situation. Yes some guys are THAT GOOD that they will rise no matter what, some need to find the right situation to prosper. Westbrook is one of those guys and Bayless is another.

If Westbrook didn't get free reign and the chance to develop the way he did, and got stuck on a playoff team from the start instead in my opinion he'd be what Bayless is right now. Westbrook was a player that NEEDED the right situation to prosper. With his style of play imo it becomes that much more likely that he doesn't pan out the same way if he doesn't get the right situation. He's everything people on this board generally dislike in a player.

4 teams agreed that Chauncey Billups wasn't good enough to be that main guy, he could have very easily fell by the wayside if he didn't land on Detroit.

If I told you Jeremy lin would have the stretch he did last year and score 38 points against the Lakers there's a 0% chance you would have believed that. If the ball didn't bounce the right way and he didn't land that opportunity NOBODY would think he was adequate to be a starting PG in this league.

There's a lot to consider, you can't just say "well if he was good enough someone would see it". Nah it doesn't always work that way.

[jimmie]

... you can't just say "well if he was good enough someone would see it". Nah it doesn't always work that way.

Yes, you can, and no, it doesn't "always" work that way... but it works that way the vast majority of the time.

Bayless is playing pretty well in his 15 minutes a game. Good for him, he's found his niche in Memphis. Finally. But let's not pretend he's spent the past 4 years being unfairly benched behind inferior players and vastly under-appreciated by every organization that has employed him.

[Bsee]

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot. The only reason to have resigned him is if he could have replaced Jose. Based on his bench play for us it was clear he could not. There was no way he was becoming our starter over Lowry making him another (albeit less overpaid) bad contract for this team.

We still knew what he was capable of, it's hard to quantify not being able to play off the bench, especially when the guy plays amazing as a starter.

Oh well... I still think a Lowry / Bayless tandem would have been an incredibly dynamic backcourt. But the organization had no vision to put him at 2 and keep him there, where he'd be able to flourish imo. If Monta Ellis can play the 2 there is no conceivable reason Bayless cannot.

[Bsee]

... you can't just say "well if he was good enough someone would see it". Nah it doesn't always work that way.

Yes, you can, and no, it doesn't "always" work that way... but it works that way the vast majority of the time.

Bayless is playing pretty well in his 15 minutes a game. Good for him, he's found his niche in Memphis. Finally. But let's not pretend he's spent the past 4 years being unfairly benched behind inferior players and vastly under-appreciated by every organization that has employed him.

But he has

How do you know if a player can be Monta Ellis or Gilbert Arenas if you never gave him the chance to be Monta Ellis or Gilbert Arenas? no scout projected him to be less than a star coming into the league. Just look at those 2 guys he was compared to, they're volume guys. How can he be that if he doesn't get a consistent chance? And he has shown he can when he gets ample opportunity. 29 in the playoffs with Portland? 30 point games with the Raptors single handedly putting the team on his back?

I agree it works the way you say the vast majority of the time, but in a situation such as this, where the guy has the pedigree, had every scout calling him an elite talent with all star potential, has a current all star in the league (Kevin Love) saying that he's the 1 guy that can be an all star that hasn't broken out yet... I'd say Bayless is the outlier to that rule, especially since he still hasn't gotten a consistent opportunity yet.

[Indeed]

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot. The only reason to have resigned him is if he could have replaced Jose. Based on his bench play for us it was clear he could not. There was no way he was becoming our starter over Lowry making him another (albeit less overpaid) bad contract for this team.

You surprised with the talent on our bench?
Calderon did great with our starters, and not much without shooters like Bargnani on the bench.

[lucky777s]

If TRoss is really a SG, as it seems he is, would it not have made more sense to keep Bayless and use the 8 pick in another way. Bayless can back up the 1 or 2 spot and is definitely more ready to play now.

Of course if we had that kind of patience at the top we may have kept either JJ or Weems and not signed Fields. Saved money and saved our future lotto pick.

Ironic that BC is probably begging for patience from MLSE board and fans but has shown none in his 7 years here.

[lucky777s]

You surprised with the talent on our bench?
Calderon did great with our starters, and not much without shooters like Bargnani on the bench.

And Bargs did not play well with KLow. Sooooooooooooooooo (you know what is coming) why dont' we play Jose and Bargs off the bench together when KLow comes back.

[BorisDK1]

I'm happy for Bayless that he's playing well off the bench for Memphis, but I don't lament letting him go at all. Lowry is a clear upgrade even to good Bayless, and by a not-insignificant margin.

Do I wish that he had played better as a reserve here? Yes. I'd prefer him to Calderon, honestly, as a backup. But hopefully for him he goes on and sustains this level and gets the starting job I think he deserves.

That said, in the future, Toronto has to learn from this and do a better job identifying higher-end talent. It does make me chuckle that $3 million for Bayless was a price too great to be paid, whereas we fork over so much needless money so frequently the rest of the time.

[rove]

It's based on the fact [by fact you mean opinion of scouting sites] that Bayless was always more highly touted and at the very least just as touted as Westbrook up until draft night [was more/evenly touted by scouts]. Bayless was projected[again, projection by scouts] to be better than Westbrook

Your idea is based on opinion/projection. There are a million players that are projected to be great. Oden was projected to be one of the top centers of all-time. Adam Morrison was projected to be a poor man's Larry Bird. They are not - THIS is fact. A player only gets so many chances. If Lin didn't bust out those couple of games, the Knicks planned to waive him and he would've most likely be gone from the NBA.

Are there outliers? Sure. But most of times these "projected great players" either toil around the league or just fall out of the NBA. Just look at Kwame, Darko and a million other high draft picks. And if by 4th or 5th team it hasn't happened, then too bad, there are other guys to fill their spot.

I'm not defending BC (I wanted him gone LOOONG ago) but to say BayBay will become a superstar if we played him is wishful thinking at best.

[Big Shot]

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot.

There's no doubt that he played better as a starter but you can't overlook his productions off the bench as he proved that he could take over the game and carried the team for a come back from behind. Also, the fact that he played mostly alongside a ballhog like Barbosa wouldn't help either.

[Indeed]

You surprised with the talent on our bench?
Calderon did great with our starters, and not much without shooters like Bargnani on the bench.

And Bargs did not play well with KLow. Sooooooooooooooooo (you know what is coming) why dont' we play Jose and Bargs off the bench together when KLow comes back.

Lowry plays well with Bargnani, and Lowry played meh with the bench with being trapped at the corner a few times.

[Indeed]

I'm happy for Bayless that he's playing well off the bench for Memphis, but I don't lament letting him go at all. Lowry is a clear upgrade even to good Bayless, and by a not-insignificant margin.

Do I wish that he had played better as a reserve here? Yes. I'd prefer him to Calderon, honestly, as a backup. But hopefully for him he goes on and sustains this level and gets the starting job I think he deserves.

That said, in the future, Toronto has to learn from this and do a better job identifying higher-end talent. It does make me chuckle that $3 million for Bayless was a price too great to be paid, whereas we fork over so much needless money so frequently the rest of the time.

I would prefer Bayless as well. I understand Casey needs someone to ensure his plays to utilize their lineup, but Bayless has more to offer on both end.

[Indeed]

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot.

There's no doubt that he played better as a starter but you can't overlook his productions off the bench as he proved that he could take over the game and carried the team for a come back from behind. Also, the fact that he played mostly alongside a ballhog like Barbosa wouldn't help either.

It wasn't Barbosa's fault, but when you look at Barbosa, his face tells you that he can't do anything with 2 bigs in the paint. When your lineup is based on 2 bigs, and those 2 bigs cannot create for themselves nor stretch the floor, then the wings/guards are stagnate on the perimeter.

[Scase]

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot. The only reason to have resigned him is if he could have replaced Jose. Based on his bench play for us it was clear he could not. There was no way he was becoming our starter over Lowry making him another (albeit less overpaid) bad contract for this team.

You surprised with the talent on our bench?
Calderon did great with our starters, and not much without shooters like Bargnani on the bench.

Calderon is much more of a pure point than Bayless, that's not even up for discussion. Bayless would have BEEN one of those shooters. But both of those points are irrelevant, what I'm driving at is that if Bayless couldn't perform well off our bench what signs does the organization have to go on that he should be resigned?

He wouldn't have been a starter with us so his production as a starter is irrelevant to the discussion. His performance off our bench was bad. If we were to resign him it would be as a back up PG, if he has never shown anything good as a backup why would we sign him as a backup? Does that discount his ability to play off the bench? Not overly but if you are going to sign a player for a specific role, they had better show something worth signing them for, he did not. Thus making the whole "hindsight" argument moot.

This is same thing as people bitching and moaning about us not signing Lin before his little breakout, he would not have had the same chances here that he did in NY meaning it would have been pointless to entertain the thought.

Jerryd Bayless so far this season:

20 PER
64% TS%
7.3 assists per 36 minutes
15 minutes per game

He's looking great off of the bench.

Which is something he was never able to do for us, making this entire thread moot.

There's no doubt that he played better as a starter but you can't overlook his productions off the bench as he proved that he could take over the game and carried the team for a come back from behind. Also, the fact that he played mostly alongside a ballhog like Barbosa wouldn't help either.

Whatever he showed off the bench the last year was not enough to warrant signing him while still having calderon on contract. Bayless has never, in his backup play shown that he is noticeably superior to calderon, and if we are gonna trade away Jose for Bayless to take over the backup position he better have shown the ability to do it.

The points I'm raising are, based on typical talent assessment Bayless at no point in his tenure here showed anything besides the ability to be an average starter. With Lowry coming in Bayless' ability to start is pointless as Lowry is vastly superior in that situation (Starter). Based on his backup play there was nothing that led anyone to believe that he would be a much better option than calderon as a backup PG thus making the signing unlikely and pointless.

People harp on the crappy signing of fields cause he's pretty much useless and doesnt offer much more than AA does, Bayless is along the same lines. He doesn't provide anything substantially better than calderon to warrant tying up more money in middling talent contracts.