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Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:51 pm
by sca
Aboozer wrote:Bsee wrote:Bayless actually shows he has the talent scouts claimed he did when he gets the minutes and the chance. His career stats playing 30+ minutes are 18/6/4........
Career stats playing 30+ minutes
Lucas - 17.5/6/3.5
Kleiza - 18/6 shooting 50%+FG/40%+3PT
Ed Davis - 11/10/1.5 BLK
Gray - 11/11/2 AST
+999999999
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:14 pm
by Big Shot
sca wrote:
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
The thing is that Bayless played better as a starter here in Toronto. Your theory doesn't apply.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:17 pm
by sca
(Continued from the other post)
Therefore, I think the best way to project a player's starter averages is to make the proportion that he played 36 mintues every single game (I'm not sure that I'm wording that properly guys as English is not my first language, but you'll get the idea). Let's say that these are a guy's boxscores of a five game sample:
Game 1: 13 minutes / 5 points / 0 rebounds / 2 assists
Game 2: 11 minutes / 3 points / 2 rebounds / 2 assists
Game 3: 25 minutes / 15 points / 4 rebounds / 5 assists
Game 4: 36 minutes / 23 points / 3 rebounds / 7 assists
Game 5: 15 minutes / 5 points / 1 rebound / 2 assists
Normally, this guy's PER36 averages would be: 18.4 PPG / 3.6 RPG / 6.5 APG and if this guy was to play for our team, we would have posters who would complain about how he's not getting minutes he deserves and how well he performs when he's playing 25+ minutes. But if you make the minutes proportion for every single game, you'd then have a much better idea of how well he would play when given big minutes.
Game 1: 36 minutes / 13.8 points / 0 rebounds / 5.5 assists
Game 2: 36 minutes / 9.8 points / 6.5 rebounds / 6.5 assists
Game 3: 36 minutes / 21.6 points / 5.8 rebounds / 7.2 assists
Game 4: 36 minutes / 23 points / 3 rebounds / 7 assists
Game 5: 36 minutes / 12 points / 2.4 rebounds / 4.8 assists
Calculate the average of these games and it then makes 16.1 PPG / 3.5 RPG / 6.2 APG per 36 minutes. Still very good averages, but much closer to realistic IMO. Personally, I wonder why no one uses this kind of a method. What do you guys think?
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:18 pm
by sca
Big Shot wrote:sca wrote:
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
The thing is that Bayless played better as a starter here in Toronto. Your theory doesn't apply.
Reading compensation fail. Sorry.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:18 pm
by Big Shot
Big Shot wrote:sca wrote:
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
The thing is that Bayless played better as a starter here in Toronto. Your theory doesn't apply.
In case you don't know, Bayless had a better PER than any player including Calderon when he was here.
I'm not saying that he is god or anything. Just don't like people talking about him like garbage.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:08 pm
by Norma Wick
does anyone else think that bay less could be as good as rondo, but with a jumpshot and westbrooks athleticism?
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:17 pm
by KnickerBonkerz
sca wrote:What a great argument. He fought with JR Smith, so he played a great game.
Lmao where did he say that? Try reading dude...
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:18 pm
by Too Late Crew
Norma Wick wrote:does anyone else think that bay less could be as good as rondo, but with a jumpshot and westbrooks athleticism?
I'm sure some people think that buthey've been proven wrong.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:30 pm
by JV4MVP
sca wrote:Aboozer wrote:Bsee wrote:Bayless actually shows he has the talent scouts claimed he did when he gets the minutes and the chance. His career stats playing 30+ minutes are 18/6/4........
Career stats playing 30+ minutes
Lucas - 17.5/6/3.5
Kleiza - 18/6 shooting 50%+FG/40%+3PT
Ed Davis - 11/10/1.5 BLK
Gray - 11/11/2 AST
+999999999
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
Yup to both posters. +2
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:15 pm
by Scase
Bsee wrote:Badonkadonk wrote:KnickerBonkerz wrote:Da Boy Bay had another great game last night.
I don't care about Bayless one way or another, he's a decent backup in this league I guess ... but, 13 mins, 6pts, 1reb, 1ast, 2to, 3pf and a minus-2 against the Knicks subs qualifies as a great game?
Why so much love for somebody who has played for 4 franchises and never been able to earn starter's minutes? He's so obscure.
he brought tough D and high energy. Got in to it with JR Smith after he got blatantly elbowed and shoved him hard
KnickerBonkerz wrote:sca wrote:What a great argument. He fought with JR Smith, so he played a great game.
Lmao where did he say that? Try reading dude...
Yeah try reading dude.......your point was he played a great game somone disagreed with your statement and he defended it. Therefore he defended the statement of Bayless having a great game and one of the defenses used was that "he got into it with JR smith".
Maybe you should try that reading thing.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 7:16 pm
by rove
sca wrote:Aboozer wrote:Bsee wrote:Bayless actually shows he has the talent scouts claimed he did when he gets the minutes and the chance. His career stats playing 30+ minutes are 18/6/4........
Career stats playing 30+ minutes
Lucas - 17.5/6/3.5
Kleiza - 18/6 shooting 50%+FG/40%+3PT
Ed Davis - 11/10/1.5 BLK
Gray - 11/11/2 AST
+999999999
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
Exactly what I wanted to say earlier. Bayless and players of his ilk doensn't play 30+ minutes because they can't do so consistently. Nobody in the NBA is trying to hold him back - every team wants talent at value if they can find it. You think if Bayless can sustain his per 36 rate and produce as a starter, the teams that had him wouldn't start him?
Per stats/projections are only useful when players are somewhat of the same caliber (eg. star vs star, starter v starter, bench players vs bench players). Otherwise you can pick someone who played for 4 minutes with 3 points, 2 rebs, 1 ast and say he'll average over 21 points, 14 rebs, 7 asts if he played 30 minutes. Or someone who only posted great stats over 13 games (Bustnani) or when he played over 30 minutes (BayBay) and say they should be an all-star.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:07 pm
by Bsee
KnickerBonkerz wrote:sca wrote:What a great argument. He fought with JR Smith, so he played a great game.
Lmao where did he say that? Try reading dude...
Scase wrote:Yeah try reading dude.......your point was he played a great game somone disagreed with your statement and he defended it. Therefore he defended the statement of Bayless having a great game and one of the defenses used was that "he got into it with JR smith".
Maybe you should try that reading thing.
One of the defenses I used was that he brought toughness, and an example of that toughness, albeit extreme was his scuffle with Smith. I said it more to bring light to the fact that our team is a bunch of wimps and it should be a no brainer to keep a guy like that around who brings that kind of toughness on top of all the talent he possesses.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:33 pm
by Bsee
rove wrote:Exactly what I wanted to say earlier. Bayless and players of his ilk doensn't play 30+ minutes because they can't do so consistently. Nobody in the NBA is trying to hold him back - every team wants talent at value if they can find it. You think if Bayless can sustain his per 36 rate and produce as a starter, the teams that had him wouldn't start him?
Per stats/projections are only useful when players are somewhat of the same caliber (eg. star vs star, starter v starter, bench players vs bench players). Otherwise you can pick someone who played for 4 minutes with 3 points, 2 rebs, 1 ast and say he'll average over 21 points, 14 rebs, 7 asts if he played 30 minutes. Or someone who only posted great stats over 13 games (Bustnani) or when he played over 30 minutes (BayBay) and say they should be an all-star.
KEVIN LOVE wrote:"He's just not going to take 'No' for an answer ...to go out there and try and get the job done. So he's just waiting for the right opportunity and a chance to break out. I think, Jerryd's right up there with a lot of other guys in our class. He was right up there in high school, with the best players"
funny how I've been echoing that sentiment this entire thread, and Love reinforced that point of view. I had no idea until I last quoted him that that's what he exactly said, but like I said, and like Love said, he just needs the
right opportunity and a chance to break out. Great basketball minds think alike
And your point seems kind of illogical. I get the basis of it which I tend to agree with but saying if he could sustain that production over 30 minutes someone would play him those minutes but he can't so they don't is incorrect. We don't know if he can sustain it because why? Because he's never gotten the opportunity to show whether he can or not! Forget his PER 36, when he has played as a
starter, playing heavy minutes, he's put up great stats at a consistent rate.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:59 pm
by gen60
The big thing here is we should of kept bayless rather then calderon and JL3
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Dec 2, 2012 4:51 am
by Norma Wick
the boy bay had another solid outing going against tony parkour
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Dec 2, 2012 4:59 am
by JV4MVP
Norma Wick wrote:the boy bay had another solid outing going against tony parkour
1-8 shooting, 3 assists, 4 fouls and 1 TO in 21 minutes... sounds about right for the boy bay
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Dec 2, 2012 5:02 am
by Kabookalu
Shot badly, lost only by 4, and they're 12-3 for the season. Hmmmm.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Dec 2, 2012 5:04 am
by JV4MVP
Choker wrote:Shot badly, lost only by 4, and they're 12-3 for the season. Hmmmm.
No hmm necessary when you have Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol all playing great + some help from Conley's PG consistency and Tony Allen's defense.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Dec 2, 2012 5:06 am
by Kabookalu
Regression2u wrote:Choker wrote:Shot badly, lost only by 4, and they're 12-3 for the season. Hmmmm.
No hmm necessary when you have Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol all playing great + some help from Conley's PG consistency and Tony Allen's defense.
Hmmm they had all those things last year and didn't look as dominant.
Re: In Hindsight: Jerryd Bayless
Posted: Sun Dec 2, 2012 5:17 am
by gbball
I see Bayless developing into a more athletic Chauncy Billups. I really liked him on this team. I was dissapointed they let him go.