sca wrote:Aboozer wrote:Bsee wrote:Bayless actually shows he has the talent scouts claimed he did when he gets the minutes and the chance. His career stats playing 30+ minutes are 18/6/4........
Career stats playing 30+ minutes
Lucas - 17.5/6/3.5
Kleiza - 18/6 shooting 50%+FG/40%+3PT
Ed Davis - 11/10/1.5 BLK
Gray - 11/11/2 AST
Seriously people, PER36 stats and "when playing 30+ minutes" are misleading... Here's why:
If a rotation player who normally plays 15-20 minutes per game is playing 30+ minutes at a certain game, chances are he's playing much better that night than he usually does. A rotation player gets more minutes when he's on a good night, and that skews his PER36 averages. A starter who plays consistent minutes night in and night out doesn't have the same luxury. You can see a guy like Bayless putting up 20 points in 30 minutes on boxscore, but it's very unusual to see someone score 10 points in 15 minutes, because chances are his coach will keep him in the game after he scored that 10 points (unless it's a blowout).
Exactly what I wanted to say earlier. Bayless and players of his ilk doensn't play 30+ minutes because they can't do so consistently. Nobody in the NBA is trying to hold him back - every team wants talent at value if they can find it. You think if Bayless can sustain his per 36 rate and produce as a starter, the teams that had him wouldn't start him?
Per stats/projections are only useful when players are somewhat of the same caliber (eg. star vs star, starter v starter, bench players vs bench players). Otherwise you can pick someone who played for 4 minutes with 3 points, 2 rebs, 1 ast and say he'll average over 21 points, 14 rebs, 7 asts if he played 30 minutes. Or someone who only posted great stats over 13 games (Bustnani) or when he played over 30 minutes (BayBay) and say they should be an all-star.