stro wrote:The scary thing though, is that, if we don't give it up soon, eventually it will have NO protection. Similar situation to how Detroit ended up with the 2nd overall pick in the 2003 draft from a trade they made with the Grizzlies YEARS prior. I'd die if that happened to Toronto, especially in such a deep draft lol
Really? You don't want us to make the playoffs because you're afraid of 2018? Really?
Look, even if we do somehow make it to the 2018 draft without having conveyed our pick, it's extremely unlikely that we'll go from a team that made the playoffs in 5 consecutive years, to a team that's winning the draft lottery.
It's about giving up a top 5 pick in a potentially great draft down the road, versus giving up the 10th or 11th pick in a consensus weak draft this year. How do people not understand this risk? Look to the past and imagine we were in a similar scenario where we went all in to win, not worried about conveying a pick in the future because we assumed we were building a winner and would never immediately fall hard into the lottery.
1999-2000 Raptors 45-37
2000-2001 Raptors 47-35
2001-2002 Raptors 42-40
2002-2003 Raptors 24-58, give away 4th overall pick (Bosh) after making the playoffs 3 straight years, then falling deep into the lottery. This is the kind of risk you are overlooking. Think this is a fluke? It almost happened again recently.
2009-20010 Raptors 40-42, missed the playoffs by one game after going "win-now" mode in Bosh's last season + Hedo. Bosh leaves. Imagine Bosh doesn't get hurt and we win one more game to make the playoffs and keep our pick. He was leaving no matter what. Next season:
2010-2011 Raptors 22-60 but it's cool, our pick is top 3 protected and we are projected 3rd. Whoops, we get jumped twice and fall to 5th, handing over the 5th pick (Jonas)
What's to stop something like this from happening 2 years from now if Rudy Gay leaves? Or what if we can't resign Lowry? It's much easier than you think to fall off dramatically in just a few seasons.