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raptorfan416 wrote:are people forgetting philly is still ahead of us ? its just bucks/ raptors.

lol this.

Leggo Hawks!

Equally worried about Philly.

Bynum apparently might be back soon.

Philly will lose to Miami tonight

Bynum will celebrate with some bowling and re-injure himself

TRaps1040 wrote:Philly has the toughest schedule IMO

Feb-23 Mia
Feb-24 @NY
Feb-26 Orl
Feb-28 @Chi
Mar-02 GS
Mar-03 @Wash
Mar-05 Bos
Mar-06 @Atl
Mar-08 @Mia
Mar-10 @Orl
Mar-11 Brook
Mar-13 Mia
Mar-16 Ind
Mar-18 Port
Mar-20 @LAC
Mar-21 @Den
Mar-24 @Sac
Mar-25 @Utah
Mar-27 Mil
Mar-29 @Cle
Mar-30 Char
Apr-03 @Char
Apr-05 @Atl
Apr-06 @Mia
Apr-09 @Brook
Apr-10 Atl
Apr-12 @Wash
Apr-14 Cle
Apr-15 @Det
Apr-17 @Ind

Miami 4 times? Lmao

I'm all for optimism. Playoffs at the ACC are always great! Lets do go Raps!

I think Milwaukee will fall off. Casey is making a push to the playoff and even before this season he guaranteed we would make the playoffs.

BlackBerry wrote:I think Milwaukee will fall off. Casey is making a push to the playoff and even before this season he guaranteed we would make the playoffs.

If Redick experiments turns out to be a failure, they'll fall off, if he improves the team substantially as expected (esp since he's playing for a contract), they'll likely go below .500 but not completely fall off the charts.
The greater threat IMO is Philly. With Bynum, they're a scary team As well, they have the head to head advantage so we have to have a greater record than them to make the playoffs.

I'm doing some serious schedule analysis, which I've done for past playoff runs, for all three teams. I'm trying to figure out whether there's any reasonable chance to get my hopes up.

There's some really interesting things in here, especially if you look at the Sagarin ratings to normalize the schedule. There's still a lot of aspects of the three schedules that are really unbalanced. AND, if you look at the three teams by Sagarin, we should be neck and neck - but we're better on all counts (with toughest schedule to date).

Here's some initial perspective to look at.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/s ... ba1213.htm


Team by team notes:

Milwaukee (26-27)
vs top 10: 9 (4/5)
vs 11-16: 9 (4/5)
vs 17-30: 11 (6/5)

Home: 14
Road: 15

Back to Back: 7
BTB record: 5-9

vs Tor: vs Mar 4, @ Apr 6
vs Phi: @ Mar 27


Philly (22-30)
Games left vs (by Sagarin):
Top 10: 9 (3/6)
11-16: 7 (3/4)
17-30: 14 (6/8)

Home: 12
Road: 18

Back to Backs: 10
record in BTB: 2-10 so far

vs Toronto: none
vs Milwaukee: vs Mar 27


Raptors (23-33)

vs top 10: 5
vs 11-16: 7
vs 17-30: 14

Home: 12
Road: 14

Back to backs: 5
BTB record: 7-6

Still working on my analysis. In two different simple versions based on home-away and east-west splits individually, the Bucks end up with 40 wins, and Raptors and Sixers with around 33 each.

But that doesn't tell the whole story.

Another version going just on normalized record vs types of teams coming up (the Sagarin splits) you get

40 Bucks
35 Sixers
34 Raptors

But again, that's not taking into full account the combination of factors involved... or our improvement since December, and serious improvement with Gay. And you can't factor in Bynum or Redick at all.

More to come...

so after all.....hollinger's prediction was really a disrespect rofl

I dont think we get in

Jennings
JJ (Should be starting over Monta IMO)
LRMAM
Ilyasova
Sanders

Have Ellis, Dunleavy, Henson and Dally off the bench. Thats a pretty decent lineup. I do like it better than ours

I think Reddick makes Milwaukee much better. They gave up a bunch of garbage (you wouldn't think so reading their threads - they think Harris is a God or something) for a solid defender who can hit shots much MUCH more effectively than Ellis

He's a better shooter, better defender - exactly what the Bucks needed

If Monta Ellis have it all, JJ is the next MJ

We got this!

Hawks, Mavericks and Houston better do their jobs and give the Bucks asswhoopings before they face the Raps. On the other hand Raps needs to win these games their supposed to win.

We got this!