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If Casey wants Pacers model JV is the West. Amir is the Hibb

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Post#1 If Casey wants Pacers model JV is the West. A
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:04 am by Double Helix

When people have discussed the idea of the Pacers model the question that's consistently raised is, "Well, who can we trade to get our David West?" People look at Amir at PF and think, "We need more scoring punch there." We've had it all wrong. We've allowed size differences and positional differences to cloud what we do have and how Amir and Jonas can function together as a duo.

Jonas has the offensive talent to become the David West-type of offensive talent on this team.
Amir Johnson already puts up contributions reasonably similar to Roy Hibbert right now and is a year younger than him.

Forget about how different these players look to you for a moment. Forget about all star accolades. Forget about how Hibbert looked like Shaq against Miami due to how weak they are down low. He doesn't play like that consistently in the regular season. Let's talk numbers.

Amir vs Hibbert head-to-head:
http://bkref.com/tiny/u1esc

Plenty of similarities there individually. The blocks total is the most different but JV's more of a shot blocker than West anyway so that will more than close the gap as a duo. The Pacers, as a team, committed more to defence than the Raptors did and their DRTGs accross the board are higher than ours but both have net postive ORTGs to their DRTGs. Casey's goal this year is to make defence the priority. I won't be surprised to see all of our DRTGs drop to more respectable numbers if he can get this team to buy in.

Amir vs Hibbert via RAPM comparison

Amir was 14th in RAPM last year with a +4.7 (We were +3.6 with him on the court defensively)
Hibbert was 16th in RAPM last year with a +4.6 (They were +4.3 with him on the court defensively)

Amir vs Hibbert via Synergy comparison

Hibbert gave up only 0.86 PPP
Amir gave up 0.88 PPP

This is a bigger difference than it seems but Synergy isn't the best judge of bigs anyway because of how it misses help defence. I find it's better for guards. Still, I wanted to include it.

So, have we allowed size differences, and positional differences to cloud our judgment when looking at the Pacers as a potential template for success? Maybe JV isn't the Hibbert in the front court at all. Maybe that's Amir. And perhaps we don't need to trade for an offensively polished PF to find our West because we have an offensive weapon growing right before our eyes in Jonas Valanciunas who very well could end up becoming a much better offensive weapon than David West anyway.

Here's a look at 20-year-old Jonas Valanciunas last year vs 31-year-old David West.
http://bkref.com/tiny/HVGnd

Look at the per 36 totals. Think about the growth you've seen from Jonas already this summer. Do you really think it will be long before he's reaching and surpassing those per 36 totals and when he does won't the front court of Amir and Jonas essentially be just as dominant as Hibbert/West? JV is improving in all facets of the game. This duo has potential. The need for an offensively polished PF decreases if JV becomes the kind of efficiency weapon he seems like he could be.
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Post#2 Re: Forget positions: JV will be our West. Am
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:08 am by TheAlchemist

Fundamental Difference ..

Amirs Height vs Hibberts

Jonas's game is of a centre's not a power forwards.

The front court will definitely have some defensive similarities. But that's that.
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Post#3 Re: Forget positions: JV will be our West. Am
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:22 am by Double Helix

TheAlchemist wrote:Fundamental Difference ..

Amirs Height vs Hibberts

Jonas's game is of a centre's not a power forwards.

The front court will definitely have some defensive similarities. But that's that.


I'm not at all suggesting Jonas will become a PF or that Amir will become the C. That's exactly the kind of thinking I'm trying to eliminate actually with this thread. It's why we've been looking at this wrong for so long. We see our 7 footer and immediately compare him to theirs. We see our PF and compare him to theirs.

It doesn't have to be that way. These two work together. They function as a duo. It doesn't matter that our C seems more likely to end up being the better offensive player and our PF is the better defender, whereas for them it's the reverse. What matters is that we have a 4/5 combo that could provide similar contributions due to Jonas' improvements.

For all of Hibbert's size he still crashes the glass and secures about as many rebounds as Amir does. He still plays about as much as Amir does. He still gets to the line about as much. He still scores about as much. In fact, he's less efficient than Amir is on a similar scoring amount. He blocks more shots than Amir but JV blocks more shots than West so as a duo we will likely have similar net protection than what West/Hibbert offer as a duo anyway.

And its not like Hibbert has a ton of upside left. He's actually a year older than Amir. It doesn't really matter that he shows flashes. What matters is what he brings consistently and it's his inconsistency that allows a consistent guy like Amir to basically match him in many ways for value on a much cheaper contract. It doesn't matter that Hibbert's bigger or stronger either. The numbers don't lie. What Amir gives up on height and in post polish... he makes up for with hard work and hustle.

The key in all this is seeing what we have in Jonas. Retoolers keep thinking that we need to get our David West beside him but I'm trying to look at this differently. Let's make him the David West offensively. Let's give him that amount of field goal attempts in the post. Let's make him the focal point offensively in the post with Amir in the supporting role. Let's not sacrifice the defence that Amir brings to the table for an all offence/no defence PF.
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Post#4 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:25 am by theSkinny

He wants us to think of them as 4.5a and 4.5b

Not a 4 and a 5... Combining Hibbert/West and Amir/Val and comparing them as a whole... Is this what you mean DH?
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Post#5 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:26 am by Egg Nog

So... why do we need Raptor equivalents of Pacers players?

Jonas will be our Jonas.

Amir will be our Amir.
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Post#6 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:28 am by Spacing

Egg Nog wrote:So... why do we need Raptor equivalents of Pacers players?

Jonas will be our Jonas.

Amir will be our Amir.


It's because people think that we are pacers 2.0 when we clearly are not. Fringe all-stars and inconsistent play does not make you a top team in the east.
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Post#7 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:29 am by Double Helix

theSkinny wrote:He wants us to think of them as 4.5a and 4.5b

Not a 4 and a 5... Combining Hibbert/West and Amir/Val and comparing them as a whole... Is this what you mean DH?


Exactly, Skinny.

It's that and it's also not allowing the size differences to distract from many of the statistical similarities. Many fans that hated Bargnani the most used to always say, "It doesn't matter if he's 7 feet. He's not playing like it and smaller players can provide what he provides." The same could be said for Hibbert in some ways (Miami playoff series aside). It doesn't matter if he's 7'3. Amir Johnson matches his statistical contributions nightly (and did this past year) despite being smaller. What matters is the contributions, not how the players look.
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Post#8 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:34 am by Double Helix

Egg Nog wrote:So... why do we need Raptor equivalents of Pacers players?

Jonas will be our Jonas.

Amir will be our Amir.


The current coach of our favorite team has suggested that the Pacers are our model. In reaction to that most have said we lack a David West and that until we find our David West-type (A guy with PER 20.0+ potential) in addition to a defence-first identity we will never come close to finding anywhere near the level of success that they've enjoyed since they finished 9th in the East a few years ago.

People look at Amir and see a backup because they look around at most of the high profile PFs and see 18/8 production from those bigger names. I see Jonas as our 18/8 guy (or more) and Amir as the compliment to that offensive player. Skinny's 4.5 and 4.5 sentence sums it up best. They're a duo. JV may end up putting up some stats that more closely resemble that of dominant PFs in the coming years and Amir may end up putting up stats that more closely resemble defensive Cs but it's all irrelevant if they can play together and the work well together.
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Post#9 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:36 am by theSkinny

With Val getting better and West getting worse (33 when the season starts) that will be an interesting trajectory cross over.


Here is something else that blew my mind a little... Amir is younger than Hibbert.
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Post#10 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:37 am by DatBoiCapspace

Hibbert can score as well though, he just doesnt as often since IND has a lot of weapons now. But he did light up MIA in the playoffs one year.

Amir has also improved his jumpshot to the point where he can be a stretch 4 for JV, so I wouldnt really compare him to Hibbert, Id compare him more to Ibaka or Malik Rose circa 2003 with Duncan.

But I'd still prefer we acquire a more offensive 4 and leave Amir to be the first big off the bench similar to Taj Gibson.
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Post#11 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:39 am by Double Helix

DatBoiCapspace wrote:Hibbert can score as well though, he just doesnt as often since IND has a lot of weapons now. But he did light up MIA in the playoffs one year.

Amir has also improved his jumpshot to the point where he can be a stretch 4 for JV, so I wouldnt really compare him to Hibbert, Id compare him more to Ibaka or Malik Rose circa 2003 with Duncan.


I'm not looking at the comparison aesthetically at all. I know they score differently but 2 points is still 2 points no matter if it's a hook shot or a set shot.
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Post#12 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:40 am by jonny three time

Amir is a good fit beside Jonas for sure. They're going to have trouble with really big low-post scorers, but against most other bigs, one or the other should be able to do a solid job guarding them straight up. JV's help should improve to the point that he's at least acceptable as a help defender. While Amir is one of the quickest help-defenders in the league.

Offensively they should be fine as both have versatile in-between games. That's the thing with today's NBA bigs pairings. Either you have a pure post-up guy paired with a pure-stretch guy, or you have 2 guys that swtich between mid-post and low-post, who can face-up a bit, post-up a bit and run PnR. I'm actually a little worried that we don't have the perimeter players who can both stretch the floor to give the bigs easy looks, or the vision to create chances for them.

The only problem with Amir and Jonas as a pairing is Amir's age and health. He's got a lot of miles on him for a 26 year old and has already had back problems. Might have to make a change in 2 or 3 years if he starts to regress.
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Post#13 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:41 am by joseph235

What the Raptors lack are Hill and George...

I don't think Gay and Lowry can match what they produced for Indiana last year.
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Post#14 Re: Forget size/role. JV will be our West. Am
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:45 am by BackseatBoss

Sorry, but I don't see it. Sure, Amir is a pretty good defender, but Hibbert is elite. Their stats might be similar, but length alone makes Hibbert a much more valuable defender.
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Post#15 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:45 am by basketball royalty

Don't really see the comparison. Both of our guys are better defensively than West but not quite the factor Hibbert can be because of his size. I think our frontcourt is quicker over all and yes, I expect more scoring out of Val than Amir but that just means we have a nice young C on our team.

In the olden days this was normal with combos of Ewing and Oakley or Hakeem and Thorpe or whatever. It is rare to have two great scoring PF and C, usually one takes the forefront over the other,
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Post#16 Re: If Casey wants Pacers model JV is the Wes
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:56 am by Double Helix

I've adjusted the subject line to better reflect the fact that it's Casey and the Raptors organization that seems to be looking at the Indiana Pacers as a model that they can strive to become.

People hear that, look at Amir and say, "He's not offensive enough to be our West." They think we need to trade for an offensive PF. We're looking at it all too superficially. It's about the duo and how the duo functions together more than anything else.
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Post#17 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:57 am by CanadaB-Ball

basketball royalty wrote:Don't really see the comparison. Both of our guys are better defensively than West but not quite the factor Hibbert can be because of his size. I think our frontcourt is quicker over all and yes, I expect more scoring out of Val than Amir but that just means we have a nice young C on our team.

In the olden days this was normal with combos of Ewing and Oakley or Hakeem and Thorpe or whatever. It is rare to have two great scoring PF and C, usually one takes the forefront over the other,


Both of our guys are better defensively than a guy who put up a DRtg of 99, a DWS of 4.7, an opponent PER of 12.1, an ON/OFF defensive NET of -1 (which means they scored more when he was off the court than when he was on), a dppp of 0.81 and an opponent FG% of 36? Yeah, I don't think so.
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Post#18 Re: If Casey wants Pacers model JV is the Wes
Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:03 pm by agentzero2010

I think they are going after a denver nugget model
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Post#19 Re: Forget size: JV will be our West. Amir is
Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:05 pm by basketball royalty

CanadaB-Ball wrote:
basketball royalty wrote:Don't really see the comparison. Both of our guys are better defensively than West but not quite the factor Hibbert can be because of his size. I think our frontcourt is quicker over all and yes, I expect more scoring out of Val than Amir but that just means we have a nice young C on our team.

In the olden days this was normal with combos of Ewing and Oakley or Hakeem and Thorpe or whatever. It is rare to have two great scoring PF and C, usually one takes the forefront over the other,


Both of our guys are better defensively than a guy who put up a DRtg of 99, a DWS of 4.7, an opponent PER of 12.1, an ON/OFF defensive NET of -1 (which means they scored more when he was off the court than when he was on), a dppp of 0.81 and an opponent FG% of 36? Yeah, I don't think so.



Sorry, not sure what any of that means but in terms of rim protection I'd say both Val and Amir are better than West. A lot of those stats can be contributed to the overall defense of the Pacers I would think, though I already admit I don't follow the importance of the stuff you put up.

Maybe I am wrong but David West is not a defensive force in miy mind. How are all his stats when he was on the Hornets?
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Post#20 Re: If Casey wants Pacers model JV is the Wes
Sat Jul 20, 2013 12:06 pm by SirBounceAlot

I respect your optimisim and persistence dh but brah yu gotta lay off creating threads. this becoming like propaganda now lmao
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