Double Helix wrote:hillbilly hare wrote:Great post and a fantastic job done on the stats.
But it's the kind of thing that can degenerate pretty quickly if we start comparing the two teams in too much detail. I think we can do that on a more general level, in the sense that Indy built a winner using every possible resource to build its team: the draft, free agency and trades. A fantastic job that we should definitely try to emulate.
But.
The "Indy model" starts with coaching. That's the big difference, for now, between them and us and a bunch of other teams too. Not only better coaching, but specifically playoff winning basketball centered around defense and rebounding.
The 2nd difference regards the current NBA wisdom that you need superstars to contend. Indy has one in Paul George. We have none.
You need some All-stars around your superstar too, and Indy has 2 or 3 more, in HIbbert, West and Granger (before injuries). We have none.
Those are some pretty serious differences.
If we look at the players head to head, that goes off the tracks pretty quickly. Amir vs. Hibbert is really off base. There is no comparison. Seriously. You can dig up all the stats you want and go into analytics and whatnot, but it's seriously flawed. Hibbert is a center. Amir is not. Hibbert is a beast at over 7 feet and weighs a ton. He is a game changer on the defensive end. He has flaws of course. But there is no comparison between him and Amir. Teams have to plan around Hibbert's defense. One example from game 1 in the East finals vs. the Heat: that one small coaching error, a little brain fart at the end of game 1 vs. the Heat, when they took Hibbert out of the game, probably cost the Pacers that series. With Hibbert defending the rim, there's a very good chance Lebron doesn't drive for a frigging layup to win the game, with the realistic chance of Hibbert either blocking or altering the shot.
As to the rebuild, as I said, I love the Pacers model. We have our big time prospect at center, who could not only end up being better than Hibbert, but looks to be developing a lot faster too. Now we need a superstar, our answer to Paul George. First guy that comes to mind is Wiggins. We need a couple of All-stars too. How about that Gay for Monroe trade? Monroe can be our All-star PF, vs. West in Indy. We than have to use our cap space well, like Indy did with West. If we trade Lowry for a pick or picks, then we would probably be looking for a PG in free agency. A couple of names available in 2014 might be Bledsoe (get him before he explodes?) or Jennings (will he mature and become an All-star?) or somebody like Avery Bradley, whose game might be like Hill's with better D. Or use a pick to make a shrewd trade for a guy, like the Spurs/Pacers deal, which worked out great for both.
Appreciate the well-thought out response. Nobody with a brain could or should argue against the idea of having Wiggins and Monroe with JV if ever such a thing was highly probable. I can't touch that because at this point it's just a dream rather than reality and a pretty great dream at that.
What I can comment on is that I think we should really drop the superficiality of all star appearances specifically because many of the Pacers made it because their team was playing so well together as a unit. If this team played great Rudy Gay would probably get some credit for that and perhaps a shot at his first AS game. Team success breeds individual awards and accolades.
I can also say that while Paul George may still have several gears left as a player, Rudy Gay has had seasons in his past that compare reasonably well with who Paul George was last year. And that player last year was good enough to help them become a great team.
So, it really comes down to 3 things here.
1) The team defence needs to improve massively. Casey suggests it will but it needs to be elite this year.
2) Jonas needs to become a near all star quality big offensively and either the central option or secondary option on offense.
3) Rudy Gay needs to have a big year on both sides of the court. Offensively, he needs to return to those 108 or 109 ORTG years he's had in the past. Defensively, he needs to buy in and take the same pride on defence against weaker players that he does against Mello, Bron, George, Durant, etc.
We'll have to agree to disagree re. Paul George. Rudy has never had a year as good as George's last year, his first year as a full time starter at SF. And while there is always politics involved in team selections, George deserved both his All-NBA and All-Defensive team awards. The guy was a beast all over the court. He even turned it up a notch in the playoffs, the sign of a true star and budding superstar. He put up 19.4 / 6 / 5 with 44% from 3 and great D against Lebron and the Heat. Those 5 assists a game really stand out. He was often the team's leading playmaker. I see a lot of Scottie Pippen in his game. Even at 22, George was on another tier from Rudy.
I am concerned about our D too. We all thought Casey was some kind of defensive ace when he came in, but he's nowhere near guys like Thibodeau, Vogel, Rivers, etc. That has to change, but is he the right guy?
Rudy has to improve in every facet of the game. It isn't a quip if I say he has to play more like, well, Paul George. He has uber athleticism and has to play better D, that's true. He needs to shoot better from 3 and has to be a better playmaker, especially if he's the first option on offense.
The scary thing about Indiana is that they seem to be a team that's greater than the sum of its parts. They do have outstanding individual players, but they also have a great system. Great team D. Excellent rebounding. That's winning playoff basketball. And then you look at their SG situation and see that they were starting Lance Stephenson! The team that almost, and could've, beat the Heat had Stephenson starting at SG! They just plugged him in there and he played pretty well overall. Imagine what they might do if they get a good trade offer for Granger!
