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Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's future?

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Post#1 Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:42 pm by Double Helix

Another amazing article from Zach Lowe that's well worth your time.

Nevada Smith, coach of the most innovative pro basketball team you've never seen, says almost all the criticism he hears about his chosen strategy comes from older fans and scouts.

"It's mostly those old-school basketball guys," says Smith, coach of the D-League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers, who have attempted 46 3-pointers per game over their 9-1 start to this season. "They ask why we're doing this. They say it's not basketball."

Smith just laughs it off. The Vipers, Houston's D-League affiliate, average nearly 112 possessions per game — about a dozen more than any NBA team. All that sprinting and 3-point gunning has produced 115 points per 100 possessions, best in the D-League and a number that would blow away the entire NBA. "If we could take a 3 every time down the court," Smith says, "we probably would. There's going to be a game where we shoot 60. I'm telling you. And people are going to think we're crazy."

No NBA team is doing anything close to what Smith and the Vipes1 are pulling in the D-League. But it's not an accident that the Rockets' D-League team is playing this way. Daryl Morey, Houston's GM, controlled the search for the Vipers' coach, and Morey made it clear he liked the run-and-gun style Smith's teams played at Ithaca College and Keystone College, Smith says. "They wanted someone whose teams would play in the 130s," Smith says. "I don't think they'd ever hire someone who played in the 80s."

About 34.7 percent of the Rockets' field goal attempts this season have been 3-pointers, putting Houston just behind the record-setting 35.4 percent share the Knicks put up last season. Threes have accounted for 25.3 percent of all field goal attempts league-wide, above last year's all-time record share (24.3 percent) — and well above the 16 to 18 percent shares the league averaged for most of the mid-2000s. The average team jacks just shy of 21 3-pointers per game, another record rate, up from about 19.9 last season. The Vipers and Rockets might be outliers, but the larger basketball landscape is trending in their direction. All of which raises the question: Are we nearing the point at which the 3-point shot will become too dominant a part of basketball? Is all the long-range chucking good for the game?


More at the link
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/101 ... urting-nba

The trend has been growing for years obviously and it's one of the things basketball fans hate about the college game at the moment. Less bigs and more 3 point shooters in the future? It's certainly trending that way.

Raptors tie-in: Nick Nurse plays a similar up-tempo style with a ton of 3s and may someday be the head coach of the Raptors, even if it's just on an interim basis.
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Post#2 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:50 pm by ishoy123

If teams end up shooting a large percentage of 3s, then there will be one "innovative" team that discovers you can score at a very high rate in the post, and start dominating there. It would create a cycle. I don't agree that teams shooting a lot of 3s is a problem though. You still need to run good plays in order for 3 shooters to be open.
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Post#3 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:51 pm by theonlyeastcoastrapsfan

Good article. I always felt our 06/07 as a bit ahead of the curve here, whether by design or not, in terms of the 3 pt shot really bolstering our offence. And if I can recall, at the time, it wasn't looked at exactly as positive. But teams started trending in that direction starting with Rashard Lewis joining Orlando the following year, and the 4 out 1 in with Dwight bringing the Magic to the Finals.
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Post#4 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:52 pm by Double Helix

theonlyeastcoastrapsfan wrote:Good article. I always felt our 06/07 as a bit ahead of the curve here, whether by design or not, in terms of the 3 pt shot really bolstering our offence. And if I can recall, at the time, it wasn't looked at exactly as positive. But teams started trending in that direction starting with Rashard Lewis joining Orlando the following year, and the 4 out 1 in with Dwight bringing the Magic to the Finals.


Agreed.
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Post#5 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:53 pm by ishoy123

Also a tidbit about Jonas Valanciunas in that same article:

7. Jonas Valanciunas's Pump-Fake Paralysis

Jonas! Do something with the ball, my man!

A pump fake is supposed to be a weapon, and Dwane Casey has told me he wants Valanciunas taking the midrange jumper when he's open. But Valanciunas's pump fake is a nonthreatening and tentative move at this stage. He fools guys now and then, but defenders won't consistently take the bait until they believe he actually wants to shoot the damn thing. Too often, Valanciunas just fakes, and half-fakes, and fakes again, stalling the Raps' offense into a temporary paralysis. You're a good player, big fella! Be decisive!
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Post#6 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:54 pm by gamer1035

I hope so, the game would be so much more entertaining if scores went into the 130s
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Post#7 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:56 pm by mappiah19

Hmmm

Having a good passing big man like Embid with shooters .... um yea
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Post#8 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:56 pm by elmer_yuck

I've been saying for years that there are way too many 3-pointers. It's ruining the game, and it's getting worse.
I wouldn't be surprised if very soon over half the shots will be 3's.
They need to do something to get the average 3-point % down to about 33%.
I think some teams are now averaging over 40%.
They should move the line back. They won't do that in the corners, because they'll lose revenue from courtside seats. But they should move it back everywhere else.
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Post#9 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:57 pm by RaptorsNation99

Double Helix wrote:Another amazing article from Zach Lowe that's well worth your time.

Nevada Smith, coach of the most innovative pro basketball team you've never seen, says almost all the criticism he hears about his chosen strategy comes from older fans and scouts.

"It's mostly those old-school basketball guys," says Smith, coach of the D-League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers, who have attempted 46 3-pointers per game over their 9-1 start to this season. "They ask why we're doing this. They say it's not basketball."

Smith just laughs it off. The Vipers, Houston's D-League affiliate, average nearly 112 possessions per game — about a dozen more than any NBA team. All that sprinting and 3-point gunning has produced 115 points per 100 possessions, best in the D-League and a number that would blow away the entire NBA. "If we could take a 3 every time down the court," Smith says, "we probably would. There's going to be a game where we shoot 60. I'm telling you. And people are going to think we're crazy."

No NBA team is doing anything close to what Smith and the Vipes1 are pulling in the D-League. But it's not an accident that the Rockets' D-League team is playing this way. Daryl Morey, Houston's GM, controlled the search for the Vipers' coach, and Morey made it clear he liked the run-and-gun style Smith's teams played at Ithaca College and Keystone College, Smith says. "They wanted someone whose teams would play in the 130s," Smith says. "I don't think they'd ever hire someone who played in the 80s."

About 34.7 percent of the Rockets' field goal attempts this season have been 3-pointers, putting Houston just behind the record-setting 35.4 percent share the Knicks put up last season. Threes have accounted for 25.3 percent of all field goal attempts league-wide, above last year's all-time record share (24.3 percent) — and well above the 16 to 18 percent shares the league averaged for most of the mid-2000s. The average team jacks just shy of 21 3-pointers per game, another record rate, up from about 19.9 last season. The Vipers and Rockets might be outliers, but the larger basketball landscape is trending in their direction. All of which raises the question: Are we nearing the point at which the 3-point shot will become too dominant a part of basketball? Is all the long-range chucking good for the game?


More at the link
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/101 ... urting-nba

The trend has been growing for years obviously and it's one of the things basketball fans hate about the college game at the moment. Less bigs and more 3 point shooters in the future? It's certainly trending that way.

Raptors tie-in: Nick Nurse plays a similar up-tempo style with a ton of 3s and may someday be the head coach of the Raptors, even if it's just on an interim basis.



What I hate about college ball is the short 3 point line. It's almost unwatchable to me.

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Post#10 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:58 pm by Double Helix

gamer1035 wrote:I hope so, the game would be so much more entertaining if scores went into the 130s


They could make all defence illegal if you'd prefer. :lol: Just dunks and 3s all day long!
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Post#11 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:01 pm by Mr.Raptorsingh

The Warriors are certainly built to take advantage of the home-run ball. And it makes sense, since the shot is worth an extra point compared to those taken inside the arc.

If I was a GM, I'd try to find the best shooting PG, SG, SF, and PF, and then have a guy who can score in the post as my 5.

So, for example, if a team got Joel Embiid through this year's draft. They ought to surround him with a good shooters galore. Space the crap out of teams, and punish them if they decide to double Embiid. If they don't double, Embiid will maul you down low.

The game of basketball really isn't that complicated.
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Post#12 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:05 pm by asham27

If you didn't have win loss data, the number of threes attempted is actually one of the closest indicators in determining the good teams. Most of the good teams over the last several teams are the ones who attempted the most 3's.
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Post#13 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:05 pm by VinBaker6

You'll never win a title playing that way.
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Post#14 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:22 pm by theonlyeastcoastrapsfan

The Heat do a real good job playing a game the emphasizes the three ball. They don't have the back to the basket big on the inside, but what they have instead is LeBron driving or causing a the d to double and then four guys around to make the def pay. Battier, Ray, Chalmers, even Bosh has developed the 3. Did the Heat rely on the three point shot, no they relied on LeBron, but the 3 point shot is a big reason why that strategy was so deadly, and LeBron so effective. In the finals, for all the talk of you can't win that way, I seem to recall the 3 point shot being absolutely huge for both teams. Whether it was Danny Green going off, or Battier and Ray Allen respectively.
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Post#15 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:24 pm by Rapcity_11

VinBaker6 wrote:You'll never win a title playing that way.


What way?

People said the same thing about small-ball.
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Post#16 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:32 pm by Beatbox

Rapcity_11 wrote:
VinBaker6 wrote:You'll never win a title playing that way.


What way?

People said the same thing about small-ball.

But the only reason small ball works for the Heat is this guy named Lebron, who may end up being the best player of all time.
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Post#17 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:36 pm by FluLikeSymptoms

Kids figured out that dunks and 3s were the way to go years ago, by playing video games.

I think that, indirectly, this will re-establish the value of quality pivots. Maybe you don't want two paint-dwellers, but one is great. As defences evolve (tapping/reworking college Ds) to take away the 3-ball, that will, in turn, create 1v1 battles down low, where the easy buckets are. It's already happening. The trick for bigs is to be smallball-proof, you've got to score 1v1 and/or protect the rim when there's no post player to guard. As long as the rim is 10ft off the ground, height will be an advantage for those who can play and I think it will always come back to size. Or the Jordans and LBJs, sure.
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Post#18 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:38 pm by Rapcity_11

Beatbox wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
VinBaker6 wrote:You'll never win a title playing that way.


What way?

People said the same thing about small-ball.

But the only reason small ball works for the Heat is this guy named Lebron, who may end up being the best player of all time.


While true, that doesn't change my point at all.
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Post#19 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:39 pm by ruckus

Rio Grande's offense at this point appears to be the work of Morey and not whoever the coach is at this point. Nick Nurse came from Rio Grande as well. Last year, under nurse, they took about 27 3s per game.

While there is no denying that threes are gaining a greater prominence in the NBA, it appears to me that Morey is using the Vipers as a true farm team in order to supplement what he is doing at the nba level. With so much money tied up with Howard and Harden for the foreseeable future, what better way to surround them with shooters than cheap ones you've developed yourself.

Maybe I'm giving him too much credit here but, this is what I took away from the article.
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Post#20 Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:42 pm by ishoy123

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Beatbox wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
What way?

People said the same thing about small-ball.

But the only reason small ball works for the Heat is this guy named Lebron, who may end up being the best player of all time.


While true, that doesn't change my point at all.


And no team has won a championship using small-ball yet.
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