Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's future?

[Danchan]

The Warriors are certainly built to take advantage of the home-run ball. And it makes sense, since the shot is worth an extra point compared to those taken inside the arc.

If I was a GM, I'd try to find the best shooting PG, SG, SF, and PF, and then have a guy who can score in the post as my 5.

So, for example, if a team got Joel Embiid through this year's draft. They ought to surround him with a good shooters galore. Space the crap out of teams, and punish them if they decide to double Embiid. If they don't double, Embiid will maul you down low.

The game of basketball really isn't that complicated.

lol rlly?

[Rapcity_11]

And no team has won a championship using small-ball yet.

That's just plain not true.

[VinBaker6]

You'll never win a title playing that way.

What way?

People said the same thing about small-ball.

Shooting threes, playing a fast paced game. Small ball is do-able when you have on of the best this league has ever seen. Miami was extremely adaptable because of their defense. they could play anyway (grind out games, fast paced games). Thing is, not everyone has a LeBron on their squad. Defense wins championships, always. It's extremely tough to play small ball and be great defensively. That's a big credit to Spo.

Past Champions:

Heat
Mavs
Lakers
Celtics
Spurs
Lakers (Shaq Kobe)

Every single one of those teams had a big and wing, and every one of those teams were good defensively. Every championship team is the same. Great Wing play (at least 1 star), and a great big, with role player shooters. Miami is the exception. It's easy to play small ball when you have LBJ and Wade (Bosh is great for them too).

Edit: We see this every year, teams wanna go play fast and it ends up bad all the time

[nyrangers08]

And no team has won a championship using small-ball yet.

Heat are easily small ball. They aren't run and gun per se, especially in the playoffs, but one of the smallest teams ever.

[Shaazzam]

3's created off of good ball movement is exactly what basketball is about.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

^ that. Plus, the best shot is the open one.

[TheAlchemist]

Then all teams will play seriously tight on the 3 point line and post play/2 point shots will be valuable again "to keep the defence honest"..

Just stupid trends that's all.

[Rapcity_11]

You'll never win a title playing that way.

What way?

People said the same thing about small-ball.

Shooting threes, playing a fast paced game. Small ball is do-able when you have on of the best this league has ever seen. Miami was extremely adaptable because of their defense. they could play anyway (grind out games, fast paced games). Thing is, not everyone has a LeBron on their squad. Defense wins championships, always. It's extremely tough to play small ball and be great defensively. That's a big credit to Spo.

Past Champions:

Heat
Mavs
Lakers
Celtics
Spurs
Lakers (Shaq Kobe)

Every single one of those teams had a big and wing, and every one of those teams were good defensively. Every championship team is the same. Great Wing play (at least 1 star), and a great big, with role player shooters. Miami is the exception. It's easy to play small ball when you have LBJ and Wade (Bosh is great for them too).

Edit: We see this every year, teams wanna go play fast and it ends up bad all the time

A couple points:

1. The Suns could easily have won titles in 05, 06 and 07. They didn't but pretending they weren't good enough or capable (especially in 07) is just ignorance IMO.

2. You're mostly right about the importance of defense but over the past 30 or so years ofense and defense have proven to be just about equally important with champions generally being slightly better defensively.

[-TheDocOfDenial]

It is due to the fact that the center is a dying breed in the NBA and every one is going small ball. As soon as there is an influx of big men like the 90s you will see teams shooting less and less threes and relying on their post game. In the playoffs the game slows down and it is no coincidence that teams that can't defend the paint don't make it far into the playoffs. Live by the three and die by the three. Look at Orlando in 09, the Lakers pounded them into submission in the finals.

[arbsn]

Hope you're taking notes DeMar!!!

[tsherkin]

You trade consistency for overall efficiency. 3s shouldn't be your first look unless wid open but teams are gaming for corner kickouts a lot and those are great.

Iso 3s, less so.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

The Warriors are certainly built to take advantage of the home-run ball. And it makes sense, since the shot is worth an extra point compared to those taken inside the arc.

If I was a GM, I'd try to find the best shooting PG, SG, SF, and PF, and then have a guy who can score in the post as my 5.

So, for example, if a team got Joel Embiid through this year's draft. They ought to surround him with a good shooters galore. Space the crap out of teams, and punish them if they decide to double Embiid. If they don't double, Embiid will maul you down low.

The game of basketball really isn't that complicated.

lol rlly?

Yes

[J-Roc]

If teams end up shooting a large percentage of 3s, then there will be one "innovative" team that discovers you can score at a very high rate in the post, and start dominating there. It would create a cycle. I don't agree that teams shooting a lot of 3s is a problem though. You still need to run good plays in order for 3 shooters to be open.

Not necessarily. There never used to be a three point shot in the NBA. They introduced it perhap halfheartedly, and may not have thought through the ramifications of points per possession, and how it makes more sense to just jack up threes.

This could be like the NHL where they have had to play with rules (red line, goal line, icing, hand passes, etc, etc, etc.) as teams study the rules and come up with ways of taking advantage. And then the league has to change rules to combat it. NBA did stuff with the hand checking, but these are bigger rules to deal with.

[-TheDocOfDenial]

they should just push the three point line back to what it was in the 80s/early 90s and be done with it. It is funny because NFL fans want the nfl to shorten the goalposts because kickers now seem to be almost automatic and kicking at a very high percentage. Move the line back and be done with it.

[roundhead0]

I think the one big drawback of such heavy reliance on threes is that three point shooting by it's nature is more prone to bad nights than when you score more inside on layups, dunks, and short shots. So you could blow out a team by 30 and then lose to them the next night depending on how your shooting is going.

I guess that's great if your team is not elite and you want a puncher's chance. But would elite teams want to place so much on gambling like this?

[Rapcity_11]

they should just push the three point line back to what it was in the 80s/early 90s and be done with it. It is funny because NFL fans want the nfl to shorten the goalposts because kickers now seem to be almost automatic and kicking at a very high percentage. Move the line back and be done with it.

Uh, the 3 point line was the same as now in the 80's and early 90's.

(They did move in in from '95 to '97, though)

[Dr Positivity]

It's too hard to get those 3s open in the NBA. New York's model last year, Portland or the SVG Magic is the ideal build. Yes have a ton of 3 point shooters, but also a dominant inside the arc scorer who draws double teams for those shots to be open.

[OakleyDokely]

I think the game is moving towards 1,2,3 and 4's who are mobile and who can all shoot the 3 with a big, interior anchor at the 5 who can hurt you if you crowd the 3pt line.

From an analytic standpoint, the two best kind of shots are high %'s 3's and layups/dunks/high percentage shots around the basket.

We're seeing the death of the midrange game.

[lucky777s]

Court needs to be widened by at least 6 feet and the 'short 3' moved back 2+ feet on each side. Plus move the arc back 2+ feet. Many guys shoot the 3 from well beyond the line already but those extra 2 feet will lower percentages enough to make a difference in the math.

And all of a sudden the 'long' 2 becomes a much shorter shot in comparison and the midrange math makes more sense.

Plus if teams still have to guard the line further out that open up the post game more and also creates more driving lanes as the D is more spread out.

[Dr Positivity]

I think the game is moving towards 1,2,3 and 4's who are mobile and who can all shoot the 3 with a big, interior anchor at the 5 who can hurt you if you crowd the 3pt line.

From an analytic standpoint, the two best kind of shots are high %'s 3's and layups/dunks/high percentage shots around the basket.

We're seeing the death of the midrange game.

Yes and no. The dominant offense in the league this year revolves around LMA's midrange shot!