mrsocko wrote:Seeing as we made the playoffs with a center with a PER of 16 and Detroit was lousy with a center with a PER of 23 I would say PER does not tell the whole story. You would think that with that monster center they would be at least a .500 team.
Shaq always carried his teams to good records. Baby Shaq ain't cuttin it yet.
I don't think you can escape the quality of the team and somehow try and create a relationship entirely between these two players, and the wins/losses of the entire team. Particularily with how rarely very young (inexperienced) players, like Drummond and Val, positively impact a team.
Drummond vs team
Ortg + 0.7
Drtg -1.3
Net -0.6
So Drummond while being a positive to the team came out as an overall negative due to defense. Hardly a suprise his area of weakness right now is on that end, particularily from a 2nd year C
Jonas vs team
Ortg +0.4
Drtg -1.3
Net -0.9
Similar situation as above.
The one difference between the 2 however is the spread between their teammates and them is quite a bit different. In the starting line up the spread between Drummond and starters is less than 1 pt per 100 possessions, between Jonas and starters its 2.1 - meaning that Jonas' most common floor mates
could be having a bigger impact pulling his #s up, vs their respective teams at large.
As for total team success, a significant (the most significant?) reason for its wins can be placed squarely on the Raptors bench being much better than opposition benches. (namely Patterson (+6.4), Vasquez (+5) and to a lesser degree Hayes (2.3)).
So in summation, your argument as to why PER doesn't tell the whole story is more or less.... uhhh..... questionable.
Now that I've said all that, PER doesn't tell the whole story... and I don't believe it to be a very informative statistic. Although it is quite interesting that a low usage player comes out so well in PER. Usually they don't as PER tends to reward usage too favourably (although I think in this case its Drummond's ridiculously high offensive rebounding rate that does it)
Shaq always carried his teams to good records. Baby Shaq ain't cuttin it yet
Shaq was also a year older, 2 or 3 inches taller, and 30+lbs heavier. Came into the league 20 years prior, in a different era with different rules. Plus, Shaq was arguably the most
dominant player in league history. Tough standard to meet in order to 'cut it'.
Optimism Bias is the tendency of individuals to underestimate the likelihood they will experience adverse events. Optimistic bias cannot be reduced, and by trying to reduce the optimistic bias the end result was generally even more optimistically biased