Amir Johnson in decline? Look again.

[hankscorpioLA]

It seems as though there is a commonly accepted narrative that Amir Johnson is not playing as well this year as last year and that its only a matter of time before he goes into serious decline.

And yet....

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

So far this year, Amir is playing 2.7 fewer minutes per game. As such, his stats look worse.

But look at his per-36 numbers

Last Year - This Year

FGA: 10.0 - 10.1
FTA: 2.3 - 2.3
ORB: 2.8 - 3.1
DRB: 5.4 - 4.7
AST: 1.9 - 2.1
STL: 0.9 - 0.7
BLK: 1.4 - 1.3
TOV: 2.0 - 1.6
PF: 4.4 - 4.4

He's also shooting 10 points better from the floor and is even a very respectable 7 of 18 from 3 (.389)

From what I see he has been a model of consistency for pretty much his entire career here. His rebounding numbers have dipped a bit, but a big part of that can be attributed to the fact that he went from playing alongside Bargnani to playing alongside Jonas.

So can someone explain to me why everyone is so concerned about Amir Johnson?

[Lowrys Chode]

It seems as though there is a commonly accepted narrative that Amir Johnson is not playing as well this year as last year and that its only a matter of time before he goes into serious decline.

And yet....

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

So far this year, Amir is playing 2.7 fewer minutes per game. As such, his stats look worse.

But look at his per-36 numbers

Last Year - This Year

FGA: 10.0 - 10.1
FTA: 2.3 - 2.3
ORB: 2.8 - 3.1
DRB: 5.4 - 4.7
AST: 1.9 - 2.1
STL: 0.9 - 0.7
BLK: 1.4 - 1.3
TOV: 2.0 - 1.6
PF: 4.4 - 4.4

He's also shooting 10 points better from the floor and is even a very respectable 7 of 18 from 3 (.389)

From what I see he has been a model of consistency for pretty much his entire career here. His rebounding numbers have dipped a bit, but a big part of that can be attributed to the fact that he went from playing alongside Bargnani to playing alongside Jonas.

So can someone explain to me why everyone is so concerned about Amir Johnson?

I tried explaining this to someone in last night's game thread and it didn't go well. Why accept reality when it doesn't fit your preconceived narrative?

[Scarface844]

In this case numbers don't tell the whole story. It's like how I was talking about Rose's numbers the other day. Rose is putting up some really good numbers, but you watch him, and you can tell that he's just not the same player. That's how I see Amir.

He's no longer the durable, energetic, and athletic player he once was. Fortunately for him, he has a high IQ, and makes a huge impact on the game, injured or not. His game isn't overly reliant on athleticism. However, the Amir Johnson from 2 years ago would really make this team dangerous.

[Inevitable]

To everyone that says Amir is broken down

[knickerbocker2k2]

Most people who think we can easily replace Amir don't know anything about basketball. He does so much off the ball that is not reflected in stats.



Look at Love and his empty rebounding stats. Guys like Love (including Faried/Hickson) just think about getting rebounds. Guys like Amir instead also rotate at the risk of being in worse defensive rebounding position. This is why his +/- are always off the roof. The guy plays for the team instead of looking for those empty stats.

[neurotik]

It seems as though there is a commonly accepted narrative that Amir Johnson is not playing as well this year as last year and that its only a matter of time before he goes into serious decline.

And yet....

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

So far this year, Amir is playing 2.7 fewer minutes per game. As such, his stats look worse.

But look at his per-36 numbers

Last Year - This Year

FGA: 10.0 - 10.1
FTA: 2.3 - 2.3
ORB: 2.8 - 3.1
DRB: 5.4 - 4.7
AST: 1.9 - 2.1
STL: 0.9 - 0.7
BLK: 1.4 - 1.3
TOV: 2.0 - 1.6
PF: 4.4 - 4.4

He's also shooting 10 points better from the floor and is even a very respectable 7 of 18 from 3 (.389)

From what I see he has been a model of consistency for pretty much his entire career here. His rebounding numbers have dipped a bit, but a big part of that can be attributed to the fact that he went from playing alongside Bargnani to playing alongside Jonas.

So can someone explain to me why everyone is so concerned about Amir Johnson?

How do the stats (in particular but not exclusively the advanced stats) from 2, 3 and 4 years ago compare? I'm too lazy to dig them up but I'm willing to bet if you looked at Amir's stats (advanced included and focused on) for the past 5 years you would see a decline. Also, I can just see it by watching the game, he looks slower and less athletic, still a solid player, but in decline relative to his prime.

[RubiosBeard]

He's looked much healthier in more recent games IMO, guess his ankles are feeling good.

Also, I'm convinced he's among the GOAT screen setters. Dude just sprints from anywhere on the floor when a pick is needed, bodies perfectly (basically the opposite of Jonas). Such a great role player we fans take for granted sometimes.

[orbesnet]

Amir is no doubt playing more cautiously out there... you can see that in how he's going down from contact. They've probably spent time training him on how to fall better. I think people see him go down after light contact and figure he's broken.

I however in no way think that he is playing less than an integral part in our success.

[Peja Stojakovic]

eye test shows he's not taking people's heads off like he used to a couple years back

[Hue Durant]

i love amir but the man is getting technicals for grabbing the net mesh to help himself jump

[CrymeTime]

Most people like to follow the ball all the time, and miss out on some interesting off ball movement.

[Ganjamayne]

The problem is his ankle is in the decline.

[Sheldon Cooper]

Most people who think we can easily replace Amir don't know anything about basketball. He does so much off the ball that is not reflected in stats.



Look at Love and his empty rebounding stats. Guys like Love (including Faried/Hickson) just think about getting rebounds. Guys like Amir instead also rotate at the risk of being in worse defensive rebounding position. This is why his +/- are always off the roof. The guy plays for the team instead of looking for those empty stats.

Can I plus 1,000 a post? People don't really understand the nuance of basketball, that's why they are always pining for a "better" starting PF. After Kyle Lowry, Amir is easily the most important player on this team. He is really, really good and you don't need stats geeks to tell you that. Amir is a beast defensively, doesn't need the ball on offense yet is efficient and makes his free throws and is often tasked with stopping the other team's best big.

The man shut Pau Gasol (who has been playing like an All-Star) down in the last game against Chicago. He did the same with Farried in the fourth quarter last night while also contributing offensively. Sometimes guys conserve energy for when it's needed. So, on the second night of a back to back, there is no need to kill yourself if the game is close - better to save some energy for the fourth quarter and then really work your magic. Every time that someone scores on Amir early in the game I read some of the comments on here and laugh. Kyle kinda does the same thing as well - if someone could dig up his splits I would bet his steals/charges taken/rebounds spike in the fourth quarter.

[Berserk_Raptor]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

[raptor jesus]

He has a great touch - with either hand - and an improving jumper, so I'm not too concerned about his athletic decline. He also sets tough screens, which is an unsung aspect of our tremendous offence, and is still the glue that holds the defence together.

[Indeed]

I don't think he is broken down, but I would hope we get another stretch big, so we can distribute our minutes better.
His lack of range may be limited to space the floor on the offense, so I hope he comes off the bench with Patterson to round out the bigs.

[JYD]

Never thought of him as a starter, but last year he could play the role better. This year he's clearly not as effective though.

He's still an effective player and one I'd love to keep, not at a starter's salary though.

What's up with his horrible FT shooting btw? He was around 70% at one point now he's dipping badly last 2 seasons.

[raptor jesus]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Is he though? I equate injury prone to missing games. By my count Amir has missed less than 20 games total as a Raptor.

[Death Knight]

I love Amir too, but face it people, he is on the decline, or at the very least he isn't going to get any better. Whatever his peak was, it has peaked. He still has great touch around the basket which I love, but I'm most disappointed in his defense. People wanna blame Valanciunas when the Raptors struggle on the boards, but I find that Amir is usually the real culprit when the Raptors give up offensive rebounds. All the years he had to play center and against guys bigger than him is starting to show.

I would not bring Amir back, but if he does come back, I want him coming off the bench, not starting anymore.

[knickerbocker2k2]

Never thought of him as a starter, but last year he could play the role better. This year he's clearly not as effective though.

Based on what? His individual stats are pretty much the same with slightly less rebounding. As team, when he is on the floor, the team is +10.5Pts better than opposition.

He's still an effective player and one I'd love to keep, not at a starter's salary though.

I would be curious what you consider starter salary. 2pat is getting paid $6M. If you pay Amir $10M, you would be paying $16M for 48Min for PF position (plus some backup C). Lot of teams are paying $16M for 32min of PF minutes.