We DESPERATELY need Jonas to develop into a star

[TeamEd]

The rebounding issue is very simple. JV is a good rebounder who seems to make his teammates worse rebounders. One reason is probably that he gives up rebounds to his man that otherwise would have gone to his teammates if he had boxed out properly. Another is that he's slow to recover to rebounding position after contesting shots. That's how a guy who collects an above average share of rebounds can be a net minus on the rebounding end.

AJ on the other hand is an average or worse rebounder who makes his teammates better rebounders by boxing out effectively, and probably also not jumping to take uncontested rebounds. He's not racking up his own, but the team collects more because he's checking his man.

This is not to say there aren't situations where JV could improve team rebounding. Up against a monster 5, he's still probably the best option. The problem, like it always is with JV, is that he's more often going to match up with a mobile 5 -- there are simply way more of them in the NBA -- and he doesn't really do well against that kind of player on any aspect of defence.

[RealRapsFan]

The rebounding issue is very simple. JV is a good rebounder who seems to make his teammates worse rebounders. One reason is probably that he gives up rebounds to his man that otherwise would have gone to his teammates if he had boxed out properly. Another is that he's slow to recover to rebounding position after contesting shots. That's how a guy who collects an above average share of rebounds can be a net minus on the rebounding end.

AJ on the other hand is an average or worse rebounder who makes his teammates better rebounders by boxing out effectively, and probably also not jumping to take uncontested rebounds. He's not racking up his own, but the team collects more because he's checking his man.

This is not to say there aren't situations where JV could improve team rebounding. Up against a monster 5, he's still probably the best option. The problem, like it always is with JV, is that he's more often going to match up with a mobile 5 -- there are simply way more of them in the NBA -- and he doesn't really do well against that kind of player on any aspect of defence.

Just so we know, I'm not arguing about JV per se (he's good, he's bad whatever), just what the stats represent:

The problem I have with that argument, and the reason I discussed it with VVV (and responding to yourself ofcourse) is that the bolded would be in reflected in his personal reb%, which therefore should also be low.

- If he isn't boxing out and so his check is rebounding instead, or if he's not in a position to recover to get a rebound and so the opposition is getting them - that would be reflected in his reb%, not just the team reb%. Thats because reb% is % of available rebounds a player gets... so if he wasn't getting rebounds, then this % should be low. (eg. if I'm 1/1 on available rebounds I'm at 100% reb%. My team is also 100% reb% while I'm on the floor. Now, if I don't box out on the next rebound and my check gets it I'm 50% reb%, and team reb% with myself on the floor is 50% - both numbers will move 'in unison' if my decisions are leading to the opposition getting the ball).

- so even if for some reason we argue he isn't boxing out and/or not in position, it wouldn't matter because he's getting rebounds, despite not doing those things. And since reb% doesn't care how he gets a rebound, and team reb% doesn't care who gets the rebound (or how a rebound is gotten), just that the team gets it, it means that the 'cause' of the worse rebounding while he is on the floor is not his boxing out/out of position problems.

- what the two above items mean is there is only one alternative left - something else has to be causing the team's low reb% while JV is on the floor. It could just be a sampling error, maybe the guards don't feel the need to crash the glass as often because JV is down low, maybe he tends to be on the floor with 'worse' rebounders than the team has on average... I'm not sure. But what I do know is the way the two equations work (reb% = players % of rebounds while on the floor, team reb% = teams % of rebounds while player is on the floor), is not congruent with the explanation that what whatever JV may or may not do right/wrong is causing the teams rebounding issues. What those two numbers tell us is that something else, something not JV related (at least not directly) is causing the rebounding 'issues'

So I'm not sure this helps, it doesn't prove a cause and effect, but from NBAwowy, every player (well of note) and their reb % with JV on, and JV off:

Lowry 7.5% - 9.2%
Ross 6.3% - 8.0%
Amir 10% - 16.2%
Demar 6.2% - 7.7%
PPat 10.4% - 13%
Vasquez 6.5% - 6.7%
Lou 4.5% - 4.2%
JJ 10.2% - 12.8%
Fields 6.7% - 6.8%
Hansborough 12.5% - 15.5%

So what do we see here? A rather significantchange in rebound % by the majority when JV is off. That makes sense because since JV has the best reb% on the team, he'll be consuming the most rebounds others would/could otherwise get. In particular he'll consume the most rebounds the other bigs get (bigs will tend to get rebounds in the same area - ie. closer to the bucket). As such, the 'bigger' someone plays, the more their reb% changes. Amir > Hans > PPat

But look at the difference in the guards/wings:

- Lou see's a marginal increase while JV is on the floor
- Vasquez and Fields a marginal decrease while JV is on the floor

BUT

Lowry, Ross and Demar see a rather significant decrease in rebounds when JV is out there. That is (on a relative basis) a massive change to what the 'back up' guards see. This doesn't make sense - it would if it was consistent across the board (all guards saw a drop), or inconsistent across the board (unpredictable whether starter/back up sees a significant or small change) it would. But thats not what we see... we the starters, and only the starters, feeling a significant change with JV on/off.

So lets look at them a little closer look, those same guards rebounding with Amir on/off the floor

Lowry 7% - 8.4%
Ross 6.3% - 7%
Demar 7% - 5.1%******
JJ 12% - 10.7%******
Vasquez 5.8% - 6.5%
Fields 6.4% - 8.2%
Lou 5.7% - 4.4%******


The rate of change is much less consistent which is what we would (theoretically) expect to see! Since bigs don't get 'guard' rebounds as often, they won't consume' guard rebounds as often. As a result we should expect to see either 1) little change or 2) inconsistent change (ie. simple sampling or random chance)

So does this mean alot? I'm not sure. But I think it lends support to the notion that guards rebound differently when JV is out (the starters). And that could help explain why the team's reb% with JV is on the floor drops.

*for what its worth, we see something similar with PPat as Amir. Lowry/Ross better with him on, Demar/Lou/JJ better with him off, Fields/Vasquez little change*