Know Your Facts: Casey by the numbers

[ciueli]

He's a bad defender or more aptly, he's a bad pick and roll defender and he's slow. At this point the defense failings have little to do with casey and its the personnel.

Anyone that calls it a crazy defensive system doesn't understand defense or what we do on defence. The problems start and stop with our bigs.

Our team was one of the worst defensive teams in the league this past season. The only teams that were worse: Denver, Orlando, Sacramento, New York, LA Lakers, Minnesota, basically a who's who of the worst teams in the NBA.

Casey's defensive system is crazy because it gives up the middle of the floor, which lets teams get uncontested layups and dunks all day long. It took teams a year and a half to figure this out, but once they did our defensive efficiency fell off a cliff. It might have worked better if we had a top-tier shot blocker at center, but we don't and a smart coach doesn't ask his players to do things they can't.

This column by Zach Lowe has some damning observations:

This series was an epic collapse — a failure at all levels. Washington’s punchless offense piled up 112.5 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have topped the league by a kilometer in the regular season. The Wizards understood that Toronto’s defense gave up the middle of the floor on side pick-and-rolls, and they came in with a simple game plan: Run those plays, see how aggressively Toronto rotates, and use that aggression against them.

The Raptors never adjusted. You had to check the time and score to make sure the Washington basket you just watched wasn’t an instant replay. Toronto could have gone under picks, pulled its big-man defenders further back into the paint, directed Wall toward the sideline, or tossed hockey sticks at him. A wholesale strategic change is tough to orchestrate on the fly in April, but coaches do it, and anything would have been better than sticking with a broken scheme.

Casey's "broken scheme" has now been exposed, all the smart coaches understand how to attack it and defeat it and if we head into next season playing the same style we will be lucky if we even make the playoffs.

[basketballbeans]

I'm not one of those people who constantly "lobbies" for the Masai to fire Casey... but these stats are putrid without context.

Most Consecutive Division Title Winners Among Active Head Coaches
Excluding the Raptors, the Atlantic divisions cumulative win percentage over the last two seasons is a mere 36.3% (40.1% if you include the Raptors), with only one of the eight teams having a record above .500, being the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets with 44 wins and 38 losses. This division is filled with teams who are rebuilding.

PPG vs. OPP PPG Since Dwyane Casey Has Coached the Team
Not really sure how this even helps his case... yeah, the "point differential" is improved every year, but the defense has progressively gotten worse. The media makes sure casual fans know that Casey is supposed to be a defensive-minded coach so... how the hell does this "fact" help his case?

Year by Year Records with the Raptors
The "win-improvement" by season is taking advantage of dates. If we do a "win-% by month" over the last two seasons, the trend line looks like a hill.
- October + November 2013: 40.0% (6-9)
- December 2013: 57.1% (8-6)
- January 2014: 64.7% (11-6)
- February 2014: 50.0% (6-6)
- March 2014: 62.5% (10-6)
- April 2014: 75.0% (6-2); + playoffs: 60.0% (9-6)
- October + November 2014: 74.4% (13-4)
- December 2014: 73.3% (9-7)
- January 2015: 56.3% (11-6)
- February 2015: 36.4% (4-7)
- March 2015: 40.0% (6-9)
- April 2014: 62.5% (5-3); + playoffs: 41.7% (5-7)

And I'm not an advocate to fire Casey... would I be befuddled with Masai' decision to fire Casey? No... at the same time, I'm not befuddled why he isn't firing him either... but these "KNOW YOUR FACTS" facts are arbitrary...

[Hackett]

(I don't know what this month by moth analysis above me has to do with anything, are we going to include injuries, the strength of opponents faced in that month, if you want to get more detailed, you need to consider more factors than just going month by month.)


One of our best defensive players in the past was Amir Johnson, as his effectiveness is diminished with injury so is our defense. Jonas, is one of the worst post defenders for his size, his increased role on the team means our defense is going to suffer.


If you have a 5 that is not interested in good D, you will always struggle on the defensive end. That was the story with Andrea Bargnani, and this is the story with Jonas. There is no mystery here as to why this team is bad defensively. I actually feel Andrea was a better one on one defender than Jonas is, which is incredibly bad.


We have one of the worst front courts I have seen in a long time. I am incredibly impressed that Casey was able to pull out 49 wins with this roster. We need toughness at the rim. Guys who will give hard fouls and make other big men think twice about going inside. Like Amir Johnson used to do. Our team lacks muscle on the inside.

[Shimso]

.494 winning percentage?

Look out Pops, that HoF induction might not be as certain as you think it is.

[WhatsaTDot]

FACTS!

/drops the mic

[Patman]

I'm of the mindset a coach can only do so much. I think the roster is flawed and that should be priority #1.

The issue is that he misuses players with his crazy defensive system and it makes evaluating them difficult. Is Jonas a really bad defender, or is he just bad in a Casey system? Could James Johnson thrive as a small ball PF in the right lineup or should we bench him?

We'll never know the answer to these questions as long as Casey is coach and that means making roster decisions that might be incorrect. In the worst case it means moving a player to another team and watching them thrive in the right situation under a coach that can put them in a position to succeed.

He's a bad defender or more aptly, he's a bad pick and roll defender and he's slow. At this point the defense failings have little to do with casey and its the personnel.

Anyone that calls it a crazy defensive system doesn't understand defense or what we do on defence. The problems start and stop with our bigs.

LMAO. Our team was one of the worst at preventing the ballhandler to drive into the paint. That's not the fault of the bigs.

[deeps6x]

How come you didn't include this graphic?

I can't believe someone actually tried to pump Casey to us by comparing him to any and all of the former Raptor's coaches. Epic fail.

[UneducatedFan86]

What this proves to me is Rogers (aka Sportsnet) is trying to push their agenda on casual fans across the country or to people who might not follow basketball. This way, when these fans hear that Casey got swept in the playoffs, they aren't like, "Why didn't they fire him?" Also, this isn't even good reporting because it gives no context whatsoever. It's just a bunch of numbers. It's just there as a fluff piece to back up what Rogers' want people to think about Casey.

If this were hockey, we'd have 500 analysts all analyzing and dissecting why this team failed and how Casey does/doesn't deserve the blame. Plus, we wouldn't get the information presented to us with 4 little graphics. It would be 30-minute TV special and it would be aired for the next 3-4 weeks... or until Casey is fired. At which point, we'd get analysis on how this is a good/bad thing for the team. We'd also hear about lower and upper body injuries that every player had all season, and how that was the reason why things fell apart.

By the way, does the last little graphic (consecutive division titles) make anyone else kind of angry? It's basically saying that Casey compares to these coaches, but in reality he doesn't compare to any of them. The other 3 have all at least had some success in the playoffs, and two of them even won championships.

This is a great conspiracy theory, that Rogers is trying to brainwash Canada's casual basketball fan into believing that Casey is a good option as head coach… but what is the motive?

The inference you're making is clearly that a "better" coach would improve this team, so why wouldn't Rogers be motivated to do that instead? Why are the powers that be so adamant about having us buy into Coach Casey when making a change of coaches would improve the team, generate more ratings, drive up playoff revenue, merchandise, etc.

Your theory makes 0 sense.

Teams do this all the time. MLSE could just be looking to save money and not want to spend money on two coaches. They might be looking to save a bit of face. There is a lot of stuff that goes behind these tips of decisions. I'm not saying that there is a big conspiracy theory going on, it's just a bit strange that everyone was so sure that he was going to get fired, but now we keep seeing reports of all the reasons why he should stay.

It's not just MLSE who does this, a lot of teams will leak things about coaches to help push their agenda or show why they are doing something. When Thibs was almost fired a few years ago, we kept hearing reports about how players hated how tough nosed he was and how the FO didn't like that he was running their players into the ground. These type of things aren't new to sports.

I also do think we would've been better with another coach, but I'm not paying the coaches 5mil a year. MLSE just built a new state of the art training facility, is buying a D League team, has a All-Star game to host; and like I said, they might not want to pay two coaches next season. Who knows? You're right though, I could be completely looking at this from the wrong direction, and that's fine with me.

[Anatomize]

Ball boy thread

[Hackett]

What this proves to me is Rogers (aka Sportsnet) is trying to push their agenda on casual fans across the country or to people who might not follow basketball. This way, when these fans hear that Casey got swept in the playoffs, they aren't like, "Why didn't they fire him?" Also, this isn't even good reporting because it gives no context whatsoever. It's just a bunch of numbers. It's just there as a fluff piece to back up what Rogers' want people to think about Casey.

If this were hockey, we'd have 500 analysts all analyzing and dissecting why this team failed and how Casey does/doesn't deserve the blame. Plus, we wouldn't get the information presented to us with 4 little graphics. It would be 30-minute TV special and it would be aired for the next 3-4 weeks... or until Casey is fired. At which point, we'd get analysis on how this is a good/bad thing for the team. We'd also hear about lower and upper body injuries that every player had all season, and how that was the reason why things fell apart.

By the way, does the last little graphic (consecutive division titles) make anyone else kind of angry? It's basically saying that Casey compares to these coaches, but in reality he doesn't compare to any of them. The other 3 have all at least had some success in the playoffs, and two of them even won championships.

This is a great conspiracy theory, that Rogers is trying to brainwash Canada's casual basketball fan into believing that Casey is a good option as head coach… but what is the motive?

The inference you're making is clearly that a "better" coach would improve this team, so why wouldn't Rogers be motivated to do that instead? Why are the powers that be so adamant about having us buy into Coach Casey when making a change of coaches would improve the team, generate more ratings, drive up playoff revenue, merchandise, etc.

Your theory makes 0 sense.

Teams do this all the time. MLSE could just be looking to save money and not want to spend money on two coaches. They might be looking to save a bit of face. There is a lot of stuff that goes behind these tips of decisions. I'm not saying that there is a big conspiracy theory going on, it's just a bit strange that everyone was so sure that he was going to get fired, but now we keep seeing reports of all the reasons why he should stay.

It's not just the MLSE who does this, a lot of teams will leak things about coaches to help push their agenda or show why they are doing something. When Thibs was almost fired a few years ago, we kept hearing reports about how players hated how tough nosed he was and how the FO didn't like that he was running their players into the ground. These type of things aren't new to sports.

I also do think we would've been better with another coach, but I'm not paying the coaches 5mil a year. MLSE just built a new state of the art training facility, is buying a D League team, has a All-Star game to host; and like I said, they might not want to pay two coaches next season. Who knows? You're right though, I could be completely looking at this from the wrong direction, and that's fine with me.

LOL,

MLSE is not looking to save money on coaching... they are in the process of buying a D league team. They want to win more than the fans do, they realize they have a very good coach who gets the most out of the roster he is presented with.


You guys should stick to talking about the intro songs, dance pack, new logos, James Johnson's tattoos and Kanye.


It would be absolute stupidity to run MLSE based on the opinion on this forum. This forum is always wrong about everything. The consensus here is populist, and it was this consensus that hired Bobcock, traded Vince, traded for JO. It's best to leave the professional decisions to the professionals, not young fans that hide behind an alias.

Coach Nick's crappy analysis flies here, the Raptors have staff that make coach Nicks analysis look like a kindergarten project. I don't think a 2nd division college team would be impressed with the stuff you guys think is revolutionary.

[Johnny Bball]

The issue is that he misuses players with his crazy defensive system and it makes evaluating them difficult. Is Jonas a really bad defender, or is he just bad in a Casey system? Could James Johnson thrive as a small ball PF in the right lineup or should we bench him?

We'll never know the answer to these questions as long as Casey is coach and that means making roster decisions that might be incorrect. In the worst case it means moving a player to another team and watching them thrive in the right situation under a coach that can put them in a position to succeed.

He's a bad defender or more aptly, he's a bad pick and roll defender and he's slow. At this point the defense failings have little to do with casey and its the personnel.

Anyone that calls it a crazy defensive system doesn't understand defense or what we do on defence. The problems start and stop with our bigs.

LMAO. Our team was one of the worst at preventing the ballhandler to drive into the paint. That's not the fault of the bigs.

Just stop. You have no idea how the pick and roll is defended then. Our guards are not bad at defending an ISO. Its the pick and roll. The big usually shows hedges or ices and JV does none of these most of the time and plays way off the pick. No guard can walk through a pick like a ghost and the big has to slow, move or direct the ballhandler ot help the guard. We need a better pick and roll defender at PF to help this. Not to mention he isn't quick enough to guard the perimeter when the opponent puts a faster lineup out. Evaluating isn't difficult. That's why he sits in smallball lineups and the fourth quarter. So yeah, when you understand defense it is the fault of our bigs.

[Patman]

He's a bad defender or more aptly, he's a bad pick and roll defender and he's slow. At this point the defense failings have little to do with casey and its the personnel.

Anyone that calls it a crazy defensive system doesn't understand defense or what we do on defence. The problems start and stop with our bigs.

LMAO. Our team was one of the worst at preventing the ballhandler to drive into the paint. That's not the fault of the bigs.

Just stop. You have no idea how the pick and roll is defended then. Our guards are not bad at defending an ISO. Its the pick and roll. The big usually shows hedges or ices and JV does none of these most of the time and plays way off the pick. No guard can walk through a pick like a ghost and the big has to slow, move or direct the ballhandler ot help the guard. We need a better pick and roll defender at PF to help this. Not to mention he isn't quick enough to guard the perimeter when the opponent puts a faster lineup out. Evaluating isn't difficult. That's why he sits in smallball lineups and the fourth quarter. So yeah, when you understand defense it is the fault of our bigs.

NONE of our bigs ICE the pick and roll. One of the better posters here Undefeated made a great thread about it. How most teams successfully defend the PnR vs. how we defend the PnR. How we defend it requires ballstopping defenders at the perimeter which we currently have none of.

[Johnny Bball]

LMAO. Our team was one of the worst at preventing the ballhandler to drive into the paint. That's not the fault of the bigs.

Just stop. You have no idea how the pick and roll is defended then. Our guards are not bad at defending an ISO. Its the pick and roll. The big usually shows hedges or ices and JV does none of these most of the time and plays way off the pick. No guard can walk through a pick like a ghost and the big has to slow, move or direct the ballhandler ot help the guard. We need a better pick and roll defender at PF to help this. Not to mention he isn't quick enough to guard the perimeter when the opponent puts a faster lineup out. Evaluating isn't difficult. That's why he sits in smallball lineups and the fourth quarter. So yeah, when you understand defense it is the fault of our bigs.

NONE of our bigs ICE the pick and roll. One of the better posters here Undefeated made a great thread about it. How most teams successfully defend the PnR vs. how we defend the PnR. How we defend it requires ballstopping defenders at the perimeter which we currently have none of.

thats great. glad someonemade a nice post. doesnt change you still apparently have no clue how the pnr is defended if you blame our guards or the defensive system. defenses can play different styles with different bigs and the thought of anyone thinking JV switching to guards is a good idea, is comical. and few teams ice every ballhandler anymore. its a shooting league now and they dont have the personnel. and it doesnt change the fact that JV doesnt hedge, show or even play close enough on the pnr. he's one of the worst pnr defending bigs in the nba last season. maybe he improves. blaming the perimeter defenders just says what i already said twice.

honestly what says it better than jv sitting almsot eveyr 4hth quarter vs your idea of it being the perimeter defense thats the problem. seriously. its a two man game and nobody seems to get this and everyone on a forum thinks they understand what the nba doesn't. wtf.

[Patman]

Just stop. You have no idea how the pick and roll is defended then. Our guards are not bad at defending an ISO. Its the pick and roll. The big usually shows hedges or ices and JV does none of these most of the time and plays way off the pick. No guard can walk through a pick like a ghost and the big has to slow, move or direct the ballhandler ot help the guard. We need a better pick and roll defender at PF to help this. Not to mention he isn't quick enough to guard the perimeter when the opponent puts a faster lineup out. Evaluating isn't difficult. That's why he sits in smallball lineups and the fourth quarter. So yeah, when you understand defense it is the fault of our bigs.

NONE of our bigs ICE the pick and roll. One of the better posters here Undefeated made a great thread about it. How most teams successfully defend the PnR vs. how we defend the PnR. How we defend it requires ballstopping defenders at the perimeter which we currently have none of.

thats great. glad someonemade a nice post. doesnt change you still apparently have no clue how the pnr is defended if you blame our guards or the defensive system. defenses can play different styles with different bigs and the thought of anyone thinking JV switching to guards is a good idea, is comical. and few teams ice every ballhandler anymore. its a shooting league now and they dont have the personnel. and it doesnt change the fact that JV doesnt hedge, show or even play close enough on the pnr. he's one of the worst pnr defending bigs in the nba last season. maybe he improves. blaming the perimeter defenders just says what i already said twice.

honestly what says it better than jv sitting almsot eveyr 4hth quarter vs your idea of it being the perimeter defense thats the problem. seriously. its a two man game and nobody seems to get this and everyone on a forum thinks they understand what the nba doesn't. wtf.

Do you even know what ICE is? That doesn't mean the big man switches onto the ballhandler. That's ridiculous. It just means forcing the ballhandler sideline instead of giving up the middle drive, which is what we routinely did. You want to make the ballhandler take a circuitous route to the basket instead of giving them a straight line.

And I get that JV is not going to defend the PnR on the perimeter like a Chris Bosh. He's more of a Hibbert type defender. I think JV's FG% against at the rim was actually better than Roy's this year. What Indy does way better than we do is funnel the ballhandler to the rim protector, and then everybody else rotates to prevent the easy dump in to Hibbert's man.

What we do is leave JV to cover both his own man and the ballhandler who has beaten one of our piss poor perimeter defenders to the basket. I know it's hard to stay in front of a lot of the guards in the league, but the perimeter defenders should at least be able to hip hug to make the floater/teardrop in the lane a more difficult shot, which is one of the shots that killed us last year.

Unless you have a CP3/DJ combination, defending the PnR is a 5-man job.

[Johnny Bball]

NONE of our bigs ICE the pick and roll. One of the better posters here Undefeated made a great thread about it. How most teams successfully defend the PnR vs. how we defend the PnR. How we defend it requires ballstopping defenders at the perimeter which we currently have none of.

thats great. glad someonemade a nice post. doesnt change you still apparently have no clue how the pnr is defended if you blame our guards or the defensive system. defenses can play different styles with different bigs and the thought of anyone thinking JV switching to guards is a good idea, is comical. and few teams ice every ballhandler anymore. its a shooting league now and they dont have the personnel. and it doesnt change the fact that JV doesnt hedge, show or even play close enough on the pnr. he's one of the worst pnr defending bigs in the nba last season. maybe he improves. blaming the perimeter defenders just says what i already said twice.

honestly what says it better than jv sitting almsot eveyr 4hth quarter vs your idea of it being the perimeter defense thats the problem. seriously. its a two man game and nobody seems to get this and everyone on a forum thinks they understand what the nba doesn't. wtf.

Do you even know what ICE is? That doesn't mean the big man switches onto the ballhandler. That's ridiculous. It just means forcing the ballhandler sideline instead of giving up the middle drive, which is what we routinely did. You want to make the ballhandler take a circuitous route to the basket instead of giving them a straight line.

And I get that JV is not going to defend the PnR on the perimeter like a Chris Bosh. He's more of a Hibbert type defender. I think JV's FG% against at the rim was actually better than Roy's this year. What Indy does way better than we do is funnel the ballhandler to the rim protector, and then everybody else rotates to prevent the easy dump in to Hibbert's man.

What we do is leave JV to cover both his own man and the ballhandler who has beaten one of our piss poor perimeter defenders to the basket. I know it's hard to stay in front of a lot of the guards in the league, but the perimeter defenders should at least be able to hip hug to make the floater/teardrop in the lane a more difficult shot, which is one of the shots that killed us last year.

Unless you have a CP3/DJ combination, defending the PnR is a 5-man job.

Yes it does result in switching sometimes. When the big contains the ball handler there is a double for a short time. Ice drives the ball handler right to the **** big. And when passed out back to the offensive big sometimes, they switch if the big can't get back. Jv is never getting back. And if youre asking jv to quickly get back to the big before he can pick and pop or drive even, that ludicrous. And jv containing a ball handler is ridiculous but just keep ignoring that.

And no. Jv sags so far off the play he leaves HIMSELF facing a two on one because he's not quick enough getting up to the pnr to do any of trap hedge show nor do we ice with jv . It's his fault not the guard. My point was he doesn't show really do anything to defend the pnr. And if sagging as far as he is most times off the play is done by design I will eat my shoe. my posts were about your assumption that it's the guards. It's not the guards. Saying so is just not educated