1) It was highlighted on this board by "Double Helix" how Amir dropped from 30th in Defensive real plus minus to 89th this year. Part of this can be blamed by Kyle missing some games and GV being inserted into the starting lineup but obviously a drastic drop like the above is concerning. That thread can be found here.
viewtopic.php?t=1386075
2) His injury concerns. While he rarely wants to miss games and he decided to opt against surgery on his ankles this summer this has to be worrisome. He took measures to try to avoid ankle injuries this year by going to a centre in October.
Johnson was directed to a training centre in Santa Barbara this summer that goes by the name P3.
The P3 stands for the ‘Peak Performance Project.’
For Johnson it was a means to identify and avoid what steps were likely to lead to rolled ankles and what he could do to avoid them.
http://www.torontosun.com/2014/10/03/ra ... nky-ankles
Despite taking measures in October, Amir hurt his ankle in a November game. He plays through pain which is undeniable but it does impact his play.
3) His overall advanced statistical decline
Amir is 28, he has 10 years on NBA experience. However looking at his advanced stats you see many of them are on the decline.
In 2006 Amir had a ORB% of 14.4 (high), from there it started to decline each year. It was up this year to 9.3 from 9.0 the year prior but there has been a steady decline since that 2006 high.
Amirs DRB% has fluctuated throughout his career. His high was in 2007-2008 at 23.2. In 2012/2013 he had a DRB% of 20.0, since then it has declined to 17.6 and 17.3 this year.
Much like his DRB%, Amirs TRB% has also fluctuated. His high was again in 2007-2008 at 18.4. Since 2012/2013 his TRB% has slipped from 15.6 to 13.3 and 13.3.
Much like his DRB% & TRB% Amirs BLK% was the highest in 2007-2008 at 8.5%. Since 2012/2013 it has declined from 3.8 to 3.2 and now this year it is at a career low 2.4%
Following suit is his DWS (defensive win share) and WS (win share). His DWS at 2.9 in 2012/2013 that actually rose to 3.1 last season but plummeted to 1.6 this year. His WS decreased from 7.3 in 2012/2013 to 6.3 last year and 5.1 this current year.
Lastly his DBPM (defensive box plus minus) & BPM (box plus minus). His peak and career high for DBPM was in 2007-2008 at 5.7. In 2012/2013 it was 2.8, dropping down to 2.4 last year and 1.0 this current season. His BPM was again the highest in 2007-2008 at 4.3. In 2012/2013 it was 3.5, dropping down to 2.6 last year and 1.8 this current season.
What we can gather from this is that Amir had his best defensive and rebounding performance by advanced statistics in 2007-2008. From 2012-2013 pretty much all of his numbers (with the exception of a few) have seen a 3 year steady decline. To me this is concerning and i wonder how much this decline will continue into his new contract.
With all that said and sorry for the long post, i would like to get some feedback. Me personally i view him in the 6-7 million range. Yes the cap is increasing but i don't think tying up massive money in a guy who has experienced a decline over the last 3 years is a smart thing to do. Curious what everyone else thinks.
