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Contenders or Pretenders?

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Re: Contenders or Pretenders? 

Post#41 » by vini_vidi_vici » Sat Feb 6, 2016 11:08 pm

pbj wrote:
ReaLiez wrote:"But where the Raptors really struggle is defending the rim, a problem that begins with enigmatic big man Jonas Valanciunas. Opponents shoot an unforgivable 59 percent against him at the rim, which is a big reason why Casey limits his playing time to around 25 minutes per game. He just can’t afford to have the lumbering seven-footer out there for much longer. Lineups that include Valanciunas at the five are regularly in the red in terms of net rating."

Is this the time to Trade JV for Cousins? Our infatuation with JV needs to come to a halt if he is not providing us what we need. Sure he's an excellent candidate for an up and coming C but if we package him and NY/DEN 1st we can get potentially get a top 3 C - combine that with a top 5 PG and a top 5 SG we could be favourites to take down GS/OKC/CLE



I don't understand this quote at all.
Guys shoot an average of 59.7% at the rim, but they shoot 58.8% when he contests it, that's 1.1% WORSE.

He's no DPOY but how can you call a positive impact of any degree 'unforgivable'?
Poppycock - the writer wrote this with his mind already made up.


This is flawed look at Rim Protection.

Shots at the rim (in a league average sense) account for Transition/AlleyOops/Cuts where sometimes they are uncontested which obviously inflates those numbers.

What youre saying is JV allows OPPs to shoot as high as a league avg of contested and uncontested combined shots at the rim which is terrible.

Among 59 players who have contested more than 5 per game, hes 56th, ahead of only Gilchrist/AlJeff/Faried. Thats terrible.

The D Real Plus/Minus has been said already. 45th among 77 Cs qualified.

Among 69 Cs who have faced >= 6 FGAs per game, hes 47th in DFG% differential.

Among 32 Cs/C-Fs who played >= 15 MPG, hes 30 in DPBM.

Among 201 qualifiers, in PnR Roller finishes against, JV is 181st against. It accounts for 9.8% of his finishes against.

It is worth mentioning his elite Post D, among 320 qualifiers, JV is 5th in DPPP against, and it accounts for 15.8% of his finishes against.

There isnt much of a positive at all, PostUp D aside, and the team is again performing better while hes on the Bench(+4.2 on vs +4.4 off, this has happened every yr hes been in the L thus far), mainly because of those D deficiencies (DRTG goes down 6.5 PP100 possessions), despite being a Net positive while on the floor (really the most important thing).

I like JV, the contract, the age, etc.. but these are pretty ominous signs, I just hope they improve before seasons end. His best asset is his O, which on a macro level has regressed (down 3.8 TS% from last year despite an increased USG%, 20.7 vs 19.1 last year). So its getting tougher to defend the kid, but im by no means advocating trading him (unless its for a favorable deal ofcourse) or calling him terrible, the injury was a big setback that hindered him worth noting. And BB isnt great stater type either, but they are a good mix/compliment of styles, and something im not really concerned about internally this season (re: the C position as a whole).

OT, Speaking of JV, i just noticed this, unrelated as I was looking up his DPPP vs PnR D. Among 179 qualifiers for his PnR Roller finishes hes 158th. (edit: I meant 14th hah) 10.3% of his FInishes against come from there. If you maximize his productivity we need him to force deeper Post position, and when he does get that, throw it down to him.

As for contender/pretender, we still have too much season left, and in some cases to small sample sizes for me to prognosticate. Thats assuming no roster moves either. The worst part is the threads bumped, self gratification posts that will ensue either way, regardless of what happens with this team because of threads like this.
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Re: Contenders or Pretenders? 

Post#42 » by Hero » Sun Feb 7, 2016 9:15 am

vini_vidi_vici wrote:
pbj wrote:
ReaLiez wrote:"But where the Raptors really struggle is defending the rim, a problem that begins with enigmatic big man Jonas Valanciunas. Opponents shoot an unforgivable 59 percent against him at the rim, which is a big reason why Casey limits his playing time to around 25 minutes per game. He just can’t afford to have the lumbering seven-footer out there for much longer. Lineups that include Valanciunas at the five are regularly in the red in terms of net rating."

Is this the time to Trade JV for Cousins? Our infatuation with JV needs to come to a halt if he is not providing us what we need. Sure he's an excellent candidate for an up and coming C but if we package him and NY/DEN 1st we can get potentially get a top 3 C - combine that with a top 5 PG and a top 5 SG we could be favourites to take down GS/OKC/CLE



I don't understand this quote at all.
Guys shoot an average of 59.7% at the rim, but they shoot 58.8% when he contests it, that's 1.1% WORSE.

He's no DPOY but how can you call a positive impact of any degree 'unforgivable'?
Poppycock - the writer wrote this with his mind already made up.


This is flawed look at Rim Protection.

Shots at the rim (in a league average sense) account for Transition/AlleyOops/Cuts where sometimes they are uncontested which obviously inflates those numbers.

What youre saying is JV allows OPPs to shoot as high as a league avg of contested and uncontested combined shots at the rim which is terrible.

Among 59 players who have contested more than 5 per game, hes 56th, ahead of only Gilchrist/AlJeff/Faried. Thats terrible.

The D Real Plus/Minus has been said already. 45th among 77 Cs qualified.

Among 69 Cs who have faced >= 6 FGAs per game, hes 47th in DFG% differential.

Among 32 Cs/C-Fs who played >= 15 MPG, hes 30 in DPBM.

Among 201 qualifiers, in PnR Roller finishes against, JV is 181st against. It accounts for 9.8% of his finishes against.

It is worth mentioning his elite Post D, among 320 qualifiers, JV is 5th in DPPP against, and it accounts for 15.8% of his finishes against.

There isnt much of a positive at all, PostUp D aside, and the team is again performing better while hes on the Bench(+4.2 on vs +4.4 off, this has happened every yr hes been in the L thus far), mainly because of those D deficiencies (DRTG goes down 6.5 PP100 possessions), despite being a Net positive while on the floor (really the most important thing).

I like JV, the contract, the age, etc.. but these are pretty ominous signs, I just hope they improve before seasons end. His best asset is his O, which on a macro level has regressed (down 3.8 TS% from last year despite an increased USG%, 20.7 vs 19.1 last year). So its getting tougher to defend the kid, but im by no means advocating trading him (unless its for a favorable deal ofcourse) or calling him terrible, the injury was a big setback that hindered him worth noting. And BB isnt great stater type either, but they are a good mix/compliment of styles, and something im not really concerned about internally this season (re: the C position as a whole).

OT, Speaking of JV, i just noticed this, unrelated as I was looking up his DPPP vs PnR D. Among 179 qualifiers for his PnR Roller finishes hes 158th. (edit: I meant 14th hah) 10.3% of his FInishes against come from there. If you maximize his productivity we need him to force deeper Post position, and when he does get that, throw it down to him.

As for contender/pretender, we still have too much season left, and in some cases to small sample sizes for me to prognosticate. Thats assuming no roster moves either. The worst part is the threads bumped, self gratification posts that will ensue either way, regardless of what happens with this team because of threads like this.


Agreed with most of this. Sadly the majority of people on here seem to ignore most of these stats, especially the defensive ones.

There's also the issue of JV's shot chart and limitations to discuss which may deserve its own thread. Compared to many of the other top scoring centers, JV operates mostly at the paint. Many of the other centers are much more versatile and thus they score easier.
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Re: Contenders or Pretenders? 

Post#43 » by Volcano » Sun Feb 7, 2016 11:13 am

it's funny how JV's rim protection numbers were good last season and the same people who are calling him out on it now were dismissing this stat last season and playing it off as unimportant. It's not preposterous to consider that his numbers were representative of the difference between having Amir versus Scola as a frontcourt mate.

I'm all up for trading him if we can get a star, but the only consistency in the way people present their arguments is in their bias.

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