Tim and Sid: how close are the Raptors to Contention?

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

You show me the math on where we are with the cap holds, who we can trade away, and what offer we can make and explain why that risk is better than trading now, and I may be able to see where you are coming from. but I don't now, and I don't think you've looked into it hard enough.

This doesn't completely answer your question but, I posted this right before ATL took Millsap off the market yesterday:

I think I'm moving on from Millsap. Whatever the asking price is, it's too high and the ramifications down the line are too great. We shouldn't be trading for him unless we get a guarantee. If we get a guarantee, we can't roll with 3 max contracts and tie up $90M in payroll on 3 players.

The only way I see it working is if both Lowry & Millsap agree to take substantial discounts. They are both eligible for the 10-year player max ($36 Mil if I'm not mistaken). They would probably have to sign for $25M each if we want to stay within a reasonable luxury tax level ($135M payroll). For a non-repeater, with a $135M payroll, our tax bill comes out to almost $30M.

One of the strengths of our team is our depth. We'll be cutting into that just to get Millsap (best case scenario Ross is the only big minutes guy that goes out). We'll be cutting into it even more just to clear payroll (one or more of Cojo? Carroll? Patterson?). I don't think the reward coincides with the risk in this case.

Let's say we do sign Lowry and Millsap to max contracts, let Patterson go and trade Cojo into Philly's capspace. This is our 2017-18 roster:

Lowry/Wright/Van Vleet ($38.5 M)
Derozan/Powell ($28.7 M)
Carroll/Caboclo ($17.3 M)
Millsap/Siakam ($37.2 M)
Val/Bebe/Poetl ($21.2 M)

That's already $142.9M in salaries without taking into account our 2 late 1st rounders and a MLE signing to shore up SF. The tax bill on this is around $55M. The starting line-up looks good but, our depth is completely gone.

Unless both Lowry and Millsap take substantial discounts, the luxury tax on 3 max/near max deals is ridiculous.

My question was more about how feasible is the idea that we can make the space to make an offer without acquiring bird rights, but I know what you are saying. What's that salary look like with no Milsap, our current roster minus Sully and Pat re-signed to a market deal?

Also, to that previous point, what happens if you clear Ross, Corey off books, and renounce Pat, and Milsap says no, and goes elsewhere? Is that not also a significant risk?

It would be some sort of Val/Carroll situation, worst case he says no and you get some good picks back and go looking in another direction.

If we signed Millsap, pat would be movable too (S&T), rather than pay market value...that could be more than Millsap.

[DellCurry4Life]

He's saying Raps have too many holes and mortgaging young assets or the future to go all in in the near-term would be a mistake.

Clearly there is some recency bias in what he's saying, but it's a legitimate point of view.

The counterargument would be, are these ancillary pieces and future assets worth enough to help the team get to a place better than where they currently are today through organic growth alone? I.e., as Lowry ages and begins to decline, will the maturation of Ross, Poetl, Val, Norm, 1st round picks, actually help the team actually be better than they are today with peak Lowry?

Or are we better off making a move and taking a shot now, and if we miss, blowing it all up and starting over, rather than starting a long slow bleed into irrelevance as our core ages and gets worse (think Memphis and Atlanta as examples of this as the team peaked around the same level and slowly began to decline as its core players got worse)?

The counterargument is where I lie. If that is the direction you are going then really shouldn't we be looking to move peak Lowry instead of paying him max money this summer? If your plan is to pay Lowry then you are playing to win so that logic should apply to swinging at a chance to challenge the cavs. That is where the run at Milsap comes in (or Cousins). We have a shot for the finals (or had last year) and we have been building for this shot for 21 years. For fans who have been around for a while this is far away the most promising the raptors have ever been and if you are not willing to take that shot to challenge the Cavs at this point then when will you ever do it?

Honestly, what is the worst case scenario? We send away our prospects who are duplicates of positions already filled and in 3-4 years we are lead by a 30 year old derozan and old Milsap/Lowry and have to then look at rebuilding? I have watched this team since 95 and I have seen enough horrible basketball and players come through this team to be perfectly fine with that gamble. I have watched a frontcourt of Lonny Baxter, Robert Archibald and Michael Curry. Nothing is worse than that.

The issue is that it is a business. MLSE cares about money and the Atlantc/Memphis examples you gave is probably a perfect scenario for them. Playoff money is good money and not paying into the tax is even better.

[ruckus]

My question was more about how feasible is the idea that we can make the space to make an offer without acquiring bird rights, but I know what you are saying. What's that salary look like with no Milsap, our current roster minus Sully and Pat re-signed to a market deal?

It's still pretty high. I'm using Spotrac.com for the figures so, I'm not sure how accurate it is but, if we resign Lowry to max ($36M), and Pat to $12M (which is what I believe to be reasonable for a lifelong bench player), we end up at around $137M without including our 2 1st rounders and any additional exception signings. At the very least, I have a feeling CoJo is gone by the summer regardless of what we do.

So when you consider that, does it give you second thoughts on passing on the Ibaka deal?

I mean how do we match offers for Powell the next offseason?

Good question. OKC wanted the 9, Cojo, Patterson and Powell for Ibaka. I'm not sure what Ibaka's asking price would be in the offseason. Would he ask for the max and is he worth it?

As for Powell, don't we have his bird rights? Yes, he's unrestricted but, I think the upside on Powell ensures that Masai makes the moves to allow us to keep him on.

[RaptorsLife]

Remember last year these guys said stuff then raptors went on a 23-2 run. Anyways were not beating the cavs ever with this roster

[Saciid11]

Wouldnt mortgage our future for contention at this point, milsap/cousins wont be enough to change our defence/rebounding issues. best idea is to have a re-tool yr to clear salary cap and get picks and trade up in the draft and sign a FA like gordon hayward.

Cousin is franchise player and best big man in the game.. If you have any chance getting him, then you go for it and you don't worry about what you are giving up unless you are giving up Demar or Lowry ...

[Courtside]

You have them mixed up - Lowry is the Dirk player, while DD is the Finlay type. I wasn't talking about positions, so let's not get into "who is Kidd or who is Chandler?" but look at the way they were built in terms of trying to compete year in, year out even when there was a bohemoth on front of them. Dirk was 33 or 34 when they won the title IIRC, and his numbers were already declining at this point and he was even out with an injury for part of the season. The previous year they added guys like Caron Butler and Shawn Marion, while the title year they added Tyson Chandler - all guys with around 10 years experience at that point. I guess that sort of describes Paul Millsap, but what I was trying to convey is that the timing was right for the Mavs to make their push and exploit the changes in the NBA landscape - changes that will be happening in 2 or 3 years from now if we are trying to do the same.

[kieferli]

We will not going to content for long long time , East are weaker than West , even if we beat Clevelands we still have to face Warriors or Spurs . Clippers, OKC been trying to content for champion and they been looking really good for many year and they still loss in WC final . Our situation is like Clippers and OKC in the west , always top 5 but always have some team stop you in Final. I did rather we keep staying on top than Blow it up. If we blow it up now I don't think we will see playoff for many many years. We will need to keep the winning culture and hope one day when LBJ retire we will make final lol

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

My question was more about how feasible is the idea that we can make the space to make an offer without acquiring bird rights, but I know what you are saying. What's that salary look like with no Milsap, our current roster minus Sully and Pat re-signed to a market deal?

It's still pretty high. I'm using Spotrac.com for the figures so, I'm not sure how accurate it is but, if we resign Lowry to max ($36M), and Pat to $12M (which is what I believe to be reasonable for a lifelong bench player), we end up at around $137M without including our 2 1st rounders and any additional exception signings. At the very least, I have a feeling CoJo is gone by the summer regardless of what we do.

I think Lowry takes less, by 3 or 4 mil per year - so we don't pay him max, but more than any other team could pay him, but Pat get's more, by 3-6 million. So, my estimates are we are about 140 mill just as we are, with no mid level used, and no picks added. Not really much better than with Milsap re-signed, instead of Pat is it?

Powell will be RFA, so we can match offers, but how much more money are we willing to add to the payroll. And Powell is 25 already not 20. If they felt he warranted it, why not play him ahead of Ross and Carroll now. He was a mature rookie think what he is now, is close to what he will be. If they are high on him, they should get him some minutes. In fact, we may be able to improve some internally by giving him Carroll's minutes.

[Dirk]

My question was more about how feasible is the idea that we can make the space to make an offer without acquiring bird rights, but I know what you are saying. What's that salary look like with no Milsap, our current roster minus Sully and Pat re-signed to a market deal?

It's still pretty high. I'm using Spotrac.com for the figures so, I'm not sure how accurate it is but, if we resign Lowry to max ($36M), and Pat to $12M (which is what I believe to be reasonable for a lifelong bench player), we end up at around $137M without including our 2 1st rounders and any additional exception signings. At the very least, I have a feeling CoJo is gone by the summer regardless of what we do.

So when you consider that, does it give you second thoughts on passing on the Ibaka deal?

I mean how do we match offers for Powell the next offseason?

Salary cap - 103,000,000
Luxury tax - 123,000,000

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

It's still pretty high. I'm using Spotrac.com for the figures so, I'm not sure how accurate it is but, if we resign Lowry to max ($36M), and Pat to $12M (which is what I believe to be reasonable for a lifelong bench player), we end up at around $137M without including our 2 1st rounders and any additional exception signings. At the very least, I have a feeling CoJo is gone by the summer regardless of what we do.

So when you consider that, does it give you second thoughts on passing on the Ibaka deal?

I mean how do we match offers for Powell the next offseason?

Salary cap - 103,000,000
Luxury tax - 123,000,000

So to make a max 4 year offer we have to clear about 40-50 million

[Sherlock]

Lowry's and Patterson's capholds means we have very little space if any.

Yeah, but if you take the guys you where going to trade to Atl and dump them for picks/expiring contracts...you get the guy you want and maybe some good assets comming back from those trades.

Dealing with Atl is optional if it's under 5 yrs.

You show me the math on where we are with the cap holds, who we can trade away, and what offer we can make and explain why that risk is better than trading now, and I may be able to see where you are coming from. but I don't now, and I don't think you've looked into it hard enough.

He hasn't.

This is all readily available on-line if anyone cares to search. Updated as of Jan 3rd, 2017.

http://www.raptorshq.com/2017/1/3/14150168/salary-cap-update-summer-2017-under-the-new-cba-raptors

Assuming no trades are made this season, here is the salary cap situation for next summer. This assumes Lowry will opt out of his contract, which he certainly will.

DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
DeMarre Carroll $14,800,000
Terrence Ross $10,500,000
Cory Joseph $7,630,000
Lucas Nogueira $3,389,401
Jakob Poeltl $3,249,486
Bruno Caboclo $2,818,909
Delon Wright $1,891,980
Pascal Siakam $1,437,408
Norman Powell $1,471,382
Fred VanVleet $1,312,611

Total salary: $91,701,826
Projected salary cap: $103,000,000
Projected tax threshold: $122,000,000

That leaves about $11 million in cap room, assuming none of the Raptors’ free agents are kept. Which would be silly, so let’s look at them.

These are the cap holds for the various free agents the Raptors can try to bring back, and their first round draft picks.

Kyle Lowry $18,000,000
Patrick Patterson $11,495,000
Jared Sullinger $6,753,600
Clippers' Pick 2017 (25th) $1,516,206
Raptors' Pick 2017 (26th) $1,465,974

Lowry and Patterson both have full Bird Rights with the Raptors, so can be signed above the cap for up to 5-year deals for their maximum salary. Sullinger has only non-Bird Rights, and can get a 4-year deal with a starting salary 20 percent above his current one (the value of his cap hold above, about $6.7 million). That will likely not be nearly enough, if he plays well when he returns, so we’ll leave him aside for now.

In any case, including those cap holds puts the Raptors well above the cap — even keeping just Lowry’s means they have no cap space, so free agency is basically a wash next summer, barring any big salary clearing moves.

This whole idea being espoused that we can clear enough salary to just sign Millsap as a FA using cap space is crazy. There's no way I can see that working out unless the team was somehow able/willing to trade away Carroll, Valanciunas and CoJo for just cap space. Then you'd have ~$54MM in committed salaries plus Lowry's cap hold of $18MM + 2 picks @ $3MM combined = $75MM of salary leaving about $28MM of cap space. Which means you could potentially make an offer to Millsap, but not as big of one as whatever team held his Bird rights.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, to make that happen, we'd have to renounce our rights to Patterson too.

So rather than trade for Millsap with assets and stay above the cap, we'd rather effectively lose Patterson, Ross, Valanciunas and Carroll to be able to create enough space to *potentially* sign Millsap as an FA.

This is just a stupid path. If we want Millsap for the longer term, the only sensible thing to do is trade for him and then ultimately re-sign him using Bird rights.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Yeah, but if you take the guys you where going to trade to Atl and dump them for picks/expiring contracts...you get the guy you want and maybe some good assets comming back from those trades.

Dealing with Atl is optional if it's under 5 yrs.

You show me the math on where we are with the cap holds, who we can trade away, and what offer we can make and explain why that risk is better than trading now, and I may be able to see where you are coming from. but I don't now, and I don't think you've looked into it hard enough.

He hasn't.

This is all readily available on-line if anyone cares to search. Updated as of Jan 3rd, 2017.

http://www.raptorshq.com/2017/1/3/14150168/salary-cap-update-summer-2017-under-the-new-cba-raptors

Assuming no trades are made this season, here is the salary cap situation for next summer. This assumes Lowry will opt out of his contract, which he certainly will.

DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
DeMarre Carroll $14,800,000
Terrence Ross $10,500,000
Cory Joseph $7,630,000
Lucas Nogueira $3,389,401
Jakob Poeltl $3,249,486
Bruno Caboclo $2,818,909
Delon Wright $1,891,980
Pascal Siakam $1,437,408
Norman Powell $1,471,382
Fred VanVleet $1,312,611

Total salary: $91,701,826
Projected salary cap: $103,000,000
Projected tax threshold: $122,000,000

That leaves about $11 million in cap room, assuming none of the Raptors’ free agents are kept. Which would be silly, so let’s look at them.

These are the cap holds for the various free agents the Raptors can try to bring back, and their first round draft picks.

Kyle Lowry $18,000,000
Patrick Patterson $11,495,000
Jared Sullinger $6,753,600
Clippers' Pick 2017 (25th) $1,516,206
Raptors' Pick 2017 (26th) $1,465,974

Lowry and Patterson both have full Bird Rights with the Raptors, so can be signed above the cap for up to 5-year deals for their maximum salary. Sullinger has only non-Bird Rights, and can get a 4-year deal with a starting salary 20 percent above his current one (the value of his cap hold above, about $6.7 million). That will likely not be nearly enough, if he plays well when he returns, so we’ll leave him aside for now.

In any case, including those cap holds puts the Raptors well above the cap — even keeping just Lowry’s means they have no cap space, so free agency is basically a wash next summer, barring any big salary clearing moves.

This whole idea being espoused that we can clear enough salary to just sign Millsap as a FA using cap space is crazy. There's no way I can see that working out unless the team was somehow able/willing to trade away Carroll, Valanciunas and CoJo for just cap space. Then you'd have ~$54MM in committed salaries plus Lowry's cap hold of $18MM + 2 picks @ $3MM combined = $75MM of salary leaving about $28MM of cap space. Which means you could potentially make an offer to Millsap, but not as big of one as whatever team held his Bird rights.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, to make that happen, we'd have to renounce our rights to Patterson too.

So rather than trade for Millsap with assets and stay above the cap, we'd rather effectively lose Patterson, Ross, Valanciunas and Carroll to be able to create enough space to *potentially* sign Millsap as an FA.

This is just a stupid path. If we want Millsap for the longer term, the only sensible thing to do is trade for him and then ultimately re-sign him using Bird rights.

No poop, Sherlock

[yassillio]

Consolidating your assets IS NOT mortgaging the future.

Powell can't find any PT.
Siakam wouldn't have gotten any minutes has Sully been healthy.
Poeltl is behind JV and Bebe and wouldn't get any real minutes either.
Wright is behind Kyle and Cojo and is most likely going to spend the rest of the year in the 905 or until Cojo is traded.

Do we really need 2 first rounders this year plus our second rounder(s) ( haven't checked to see if we own any 2nd round picks).

Not that this overhaul would happen, but something like this still allowes you to keep Poeltl, Powell and Wright. Essentially giving up Siakam and this year's picks.

Cojo + JV + LAC pick for Whiteside ( as many have mentioned in the other thread)
BeBe/Siakam + Ross + Demarre + this year's pick and a 2nd for Milsap + Thabo and Hardaway.

Kyle/Wright/FVV
DD/ Hardaway
Thabo/Powell/ Bruno
Milsap /PP ( Sully is out after this year)
Whiteside/ Poeltl

We would maintain the same projected salary next year, but if you don't think this team can beat the Cavs, then I don't know what else we can do lol

[Sherlock]

You have them mixed up - Lowry is the Dirk player, while DD is the Finlay type. I wasn't talking about positions, so let's not get into "who is Kidd or who is Chandler?" but look at the way they were built in terms of trying to compete year in, year out even when there was a bohemoth on front of them. Dirk was 33 or 34 when they won the title IIRC, and his numbers were already declining at this point and he was even out with an injury for part of the season. The previous year they added guys like Caron Butler and Shawn Marion, while the title year they added Tyson Chandler - all guys with around 10 years experience at that point. I guess that sort of describes Paul Millsap, but what I was trying to convey is that the timing was right for the Mavs to make their push and exploit the changes in the NBA landscape - changes that will be happening in 2 or 3 years from now if we are trying to do the same.

Fair enough, you can make that argument. But Dirk was a superstar level talent, 12-time all-NBA (including 4x 1st team all-NBA) and a first ballot HOFer. As much as I love Lowry, it's hard for me to see him at that level, ever.

That's why I keep referencing Memphis. Lowry and DeRozan are more in that Gasol/Randolph/Conley tier of player. Not the Dirk realm.

Let me ask my question again, in hindsight, shouldn't Memphis have made an all-in move 3-4 years ago and tried to sneak in a championship during the period of Heat/Spurs dominance? Because given where Gasol, Randolph and even Conley are in their careers right now, it's definitely too late for them to try to do anything now. As it stands, that team will slowly fade away to irrelevance over the coming years and still have to go through a painful re-build.

Now, I can see why Memphis wouldn't want to do it, as in a small market with ownership with shallow pockets, it's hard to financially keep a tax-level superteam together or to sustain a rebuild, but Toronto has shown they can make money while they suck on the court. So even if the shot fails and you have to totally re-build in a couple of years, isn't that still worth it for having had the chance to really go as far as possible?

Also, in 2-3 years when the Cavs and Warriors have slipped off the top perch, we're just as likely to be talking about Minnesota is the next superteam to worry about with their 3-headed monster of KAT/Levine/Wiggins tearing up the league.

[Sherlock]

You show me the math on where we are with the cap holds, who we can trade away, and what offer we can make and explain why that risk is better than trading now, and I may be able to see where you are coming from. but I don't now, and I don't think you've looked into it hard enough.

He hasn't.

This is all readily available on-line if anyone cares to search. Updated as of Jan 3rd, 2017.

http://www.raptorshq.com/2017/1/3/14150168/salary-cap-update-summer-2017-under-the-new-cba-raptors

Assuming no trades are made this season, here is the salary cap situation for next summer. This assumes Lowry will opt out of his contract, which he certainly will.

DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
DeMarre Carroll $14,800,000
Terrence Ross $10,500,000
Cory Joseph $7,630,000
Lucas Nogueira $3,389,401
Jakob Poeltl $3,249,486
Bruno Caboclo $2,818,909
Delon Wright $1,891,980
Pascal Siakam $1,437,408
Norman Powell $1,471,382
Fred VanVleet $1,312,611

Total salary: $91,701,826
Projected salary cap: $103,000,000
Projected tax threshold: $122,000,000

That leaves about $11 million in cap room, assuming none of the Raptors’ free agents are kept. Which would be silly, so let’s look at them.

These are the cap holds for the various free agents the Raptors can try to bring back, and their first round draft picks.

Kyle Lowry $18,000,000
Patrick Patterson $11,495,000
Jared Sullinger $6,753,600
Clippers' Pick 2017 (25th) $1,516,206
Raptors' Pick 2017 (26th) $1,465,974

Lowry and Patterson both have full Bird Rights with the Raptors, so can be signed above the cap for up to 5-year deals for their maximum salary. Sullinger has only non-Bird Rights, and can get a 4-year deal with a starting salary 20 percent above his current one (the value of his cap hold above, about $6.7 million). That will likely not be nearly enough, if he plays well when he returns, so we’ll leave him aside for now.

In any case, including those cap holds puts the Raptors well above the cap — even keeping just Lowry’s means they have no cap space, so free agency is basically a wash next summer, barring any big salary clearing moves.

This whole idea being espoused that we can clear enough salary to just sign Millsap as a FA using cap space is crazy. There's no way I can see that working out unless the team was somehow able/willing to trade away Carroll, Valanciunas and CoJo for just cap space. Then you'd have ~$54MM in committed salaries plus Lowry's cap hold of $18MM + 2 picks @ $3MM combined = $75MM of salary leaving about $28MM of cap space. Which means you could potentially make an offer to Millsap, but not as big of one as whatever team held his Bird rights.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, to make that happen, we'd have to renounce our rights to Patterson too.

So rather than trade for Millsap with assets and stay above the cap, we'd rather effectively lose Patterson, Ross, Valanciunas and Carroll to be able to create enough space to *potentially* sign Millsap as an FA.

This is just a stupid path. If we want Millsap for the longer term, the only sensible thing to do is trade for him and then ultimately re-sign him using Bird rights.

No poop, Sherlock

[agentzero2010]

This team needs an athletic 5 a lot more than a paul millsap. The goal should be to ensure a conference title appearance. And maybe, you are an injury or 2 away from beating LeBron. As currently constructed, Im not sure if they could get past first round. There is zero interior defence and the lack of ball movement will cripple them in the playoffs. We need a shakeup. Maybe not a blockbuster trade but we need to do something.

[nbafan341]

People who bring up the salary cap:
If masai needs to clear salary cap, he can move cojo, carroll, valancuinas.

doesnt matter how reasonable the contracts masai has given out, we can find talent to replace those players either by the draft, current players on the roaster, or free agents who may be overlooked by many.

[LonZoBallin]

You have them mixed up - Lowry is the Dirk player, while DD is the Finlay type. I wasn't talking about positions, so let's not get into "who is Kidd or who is Chandler?" but look at the way they were built in terms of trying to compete year in, year out even when there was a bohemoth on front of them. Dirk was 33 or 34 when they won the title IIRC, and his numbers were already declining at this point and he was even out with an injury for part of the season. The previous year they added guys like Caron Butler and Shawn Marion, while the title year they added Tyson Chandler - all guys with around 10 years experience at that point. I guess that sort of describes Paul Millsap, but what I was trying to convey is that the timing was right for the Mavs to make their push and exploit the changes in the NBA landscape - changes that will be happening in 2 or 3 years from now if we are trying to do the same.

Fair enough, you can make that argument. But Dirk was a superstar level talent, 12-time all-NBA (including 4x 1st team all-NBA) and a first ballot HOFer. As much as I love Lowry, it's hard for me to see him at that level, ever.

That's why I keep referencing Memphis. Lowry and DeRozan are more in that Gasol/Randolph/Conley tier of player. Not the Dirk realm.

Let me ask my question again, in hindsight, shouldn't Memphis have made an all-in move 3-4 years ago and tried to sneak in a championship during the period of Heat/Spurs dominance? Because given where Gasol, Randolph and even Conley are in their careers right now, it's definitely too late for them to try to do anything now. As it stands, that team will slowly fade away to irrelevance over the coming years and still have to go through a painful re-build.

Now, I can see why Memphis wouldn't want to do it, as in a small market with ownership with shallow pockets, it's hard to financially keep a tax-level superteam together or to sustain a rebuild, but Toronto has shown they can make money while they suck on the court. So even if the shot fails and you have to totally re-build in a couple of years, isn't that still worth it for having had the chance to really go as far as possible?

Also, in 2-3 years when the Cavs and Warriors have slipped off the top perch, we're just as likely to be talking about Minnesota is the next superteam to worry about with their 3-headed monster of KAT/Levine/Wiggins tearing up the league.

I feel like we will be like Memphis in a few years if not sooner. Atlanta I feel is another similar situation to ours. They have been a consistent playoff team, made the conference finals. They were actually able to draft a potential star with a late pick in Dennis which I feel is the only reason they aren't in full tank mode.

To me there's only two options, you either go all in for a 3rd star and try to get lucky during lowry's prime window against the Cavs and Warriors.

or you trade one of Lowry and DD for future picks and hope to get a star in the draft. I'd be more confident trading Derozan than Lowry. I feel confident that for the next 3 years Lowry could lead this team to the playoffs in the East. We might not finish 2nd, but we'd still me in the mix every year.

The 2nd opition is probably the best way to remain somewhat successful, while not putting our self in a terrible financial situation and also picking up future assets(picks in the DD trade) as well.

[LonZoBallin]

People who bring up the salary cap:
If masai needs to clear salary cap, he can move cojo, carroll, valancuinas.

doesnt matter how reasonable the contracts masai has given out, we can find talent to replace those players either by the draft, current players on the roaster, or free agents who may be overlooked by many.

But when you trade a Cojo or JV (no one is taking carroll) you are becoming a worse team. If the point is to get space, you are losing that player for either an expiring you won't sign or a prospect that isn't as good as the player you traded.

[slothrop8]

You have them mixed up - Lowry is the Dirk player, while DD is the Finlay type. I wasn't talking about positions, so let's not get into "who is Kidd or who is Chandler?" but look at the way they were built in terms of trying to compete year in, year out even when there was a bohemoth on front of them. Dirk was 33 or 34 when they won the title IIRC, and his numbers were already declining at this point and he was even out with an injury for part of the season. The previous year they added guys like Caron Butler and Shawn Marion, while the title year they added Tyson Chandler - all guys with around 10 years experience at that point. I guess that sort of describes Paul Millsap, but what I was trying to convey is that the timing was right for the Mavs to make their push and exploit the changes in the NBA landscape - changes that will be happening in 2 or 3 years from now if we are trying to do the same.

Fair enough, you can make that argument. But Dirk was a superstar level talent, 12-time all-NBA (including 4x 1st team all-NBA) and a first ballot HOFer. As much as I love Lowry, it's hard for me to see him at that level, ever.

That's why I keep referencing Memphis. Lowry and DeRozan are more in that Gasol/Randolph/Conley tier of player. Not the Dirk realm.

Let me ask my question again, in hindsight, shouldn't Memphis have made an all-in move 3-4 years ago and tried to sneak in a championship during the period of Heat/Spurs dominance? Because given where Gasol, Randolph and even Conley are in their careers right now, it's definitely too late for them to try to do anything now. As it stands, that team will slowly fade away to irrelevance over the coming years and still have to go through a painful re-build.

Now, I can see why Memphis wouldn't want to do it, as in a small market with ownership with shallow pockets, it's hard to financially keep a tax-level superteam together or to sustain a rebuild, but Toronto has shown they can make money while they suck on the court. So even if the shot fails and you have to totally re-build in a couple of years, isn't that still worth it for having had the chance to really go as far as possible?

Also, in 2-3 years when the Cavs and Warriors have slipped off the top perch, we're just as likely to be talking about Minnesota is the next superteam to worry about with their 3-headed monster of KAT/Levine/Wiggins tearing up the league.

Yes. Memphis probably should have tried to push all in. But, they were closer than we are - their defense was championship calibre and they were stacking up 50+ win seasons in a stacked West. We're quite good - but we've also taken advantage of a weak conference and an ultra weak division. As good as we are - we aren't as close as it seems. They also erred in overpaying their highest usage leading score - but they did so at a time when it was even more difficult to move that deal than today. They then made the right move in unloading that high usage leading scorer who wasn't really helping them (ahem) - but they didn't get back parts that could help them get to the next level. They needed shooters - they got Prince and Ed Davis.

It's true that in 3 years there will be new powers to contend with - but it's a matter of degree. GSW won 73 games and added Durant - Cleveland have a guy making a 3-4 year push to go down as the GOAT. If it doesn't go well for him - he'll likely settle for 2nd GOAT. He's been to the Finals 6 straight times and is a near lock to make it 7 (and likely 8 for that matter). As good as the teams of the near future will be - they aren't likely to be that good. If there's a 74 win team AND a guy better than LeBron in 4 years - well you tip your hat and start planning for 2025.