Sherlock wrote:theonlyeastcoastrapsfan wrote:
You show me the math on where we are with the cap holds, who we can trade away, and what offer we can make and explain why that risk is better than trading now, and I may be able to see where you are coming from. but I don't now, and I don't think you've looked into it hard enough.
He hasn't.
This is all readily available on-line if anyone cares to search. Updated as of Jan 3rd, 2017.
http://www.raptorshq.com/2017/1/3/14150168/salary-cap-update-summer-2017-under-the-new-cba-raptorsAssuming no trades are made this season, here is the salary cap situation for next summer. This assumes Lowry will opt out of his contract, which he certainly will.
DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
DeMarre Carroll $14,800,000
Terrence Ross $10,500,000
Cory Joseph $7,630,000
Lucas Nogueira $3,389,401
Jakob Poeltl $3,249,486
Bruno Caboclo $2,818,909
Delon Wright $1,891,980
Pascal Siakam $1,437,408
Norman Powell $1,471,382
Fred VanVleet $1,312,611
Total salary: $91,701,826
Projected salary cap: $103,000,000
Projected tax threshold: $122,000,000
That leaves about $11 million in cap room, assuming none of the Raptors’ free agents are kept. Which would be silly, so let’s look at them.
These are the cap holds for the various free agents the Raptors can try to bring back, and their first round draft picks.
Kyle Lowry $18,000,000
Patrick Patterson $11,495,000
Jared Sullinger $6,753,600
Clippers' Pick 2017 (25th) $1,516,206
Raptors' Pick 2017 (26th) $1,465,974
Lowry and Patterson both have full Bird Rights with the Raptors, so can be signed above the cap for up to 5-year deals for their maximum salary. Sullinger has only non-Bird Rights, and can get a 4-year deal with a starting salary 20 percent above his current one (the value of his cap hold above, about $6.7 million). That will likely not be nearly enough, if he plays well when he returns, so we’ll leave him aside for now.
In any case, including those cap holds puts the Raptors well above the cap — even keeping just Lowry’s means they have no cap space, so free agency is basically a wash next summer, barring any big salary clearing moves.
This whole idea being espoused that we can clear enough salary to just sign Millsap as a FA using cap space is crazy. There's no way I can see that working out unless the team was somehow able/willing to trade away Carroll, Valanciunas and CoJo for just cap space. Then you'd have ~$54MM in committed salaries plus Lowry's cap hold of $18MM + 2 picks @ $3MM combined = $75MM of salary leaving about $28MM of cap space. Which means you could potentially make an offer to Millsap, but not as big of one as whatever team held his Bird rights.
Oh, and I forgot to mention, to make that happen, we'd have to renounce our rights to Patterson too.
So rather than trade for Millsap with assets and stay above the cap, we'd rather effectively lose Patterson, Ross, Valanciunas and Carroll to be able to create enough space to *potentially* sign Millsap as an FA.
This is just a stupid path. If we want Millsap for the longer term, the only sensible thing to do is trade for him and then ultimately re-sign him using Bird rights.