Magic Number Thread v2009

[Tom Baker]

As usual, I'll post each update in the thread, and also put the latest update in this OP.

Note: For information on how tie-breakers play in when the Magic Number = 1, see page 4.
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Magic Numbers after games played 12th March 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Legend: X = playoff spot clinched

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland X
Boston X
Orlando X
Atlanta 10
Miami 12
Detroit 15
Philadelphia 16
Milwaukee 17
Chicago 17
New Jersey 17
Charlotte 17
Indiana 15
New York 16
Toronto 11
Washington 3

At least 7th seed

Cleveland X
Boston X
Orlando X
Atlanta 9
Miami 11
Detroit 14
Philadelphia 15
Milwaukee 15
Chicago 16
New Jersey 16
Charlotte 16
Indiana 14
New York 15
Toronto 10
Washington 2

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 1
Boston 3
Orlando 5
Atlanta 15
Miami 17
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 20
Milwaukee 14
Chicago 15
New Jersey 15
Charlotte 15
Indiana 13
New York 14
Toronto 9
Washington 1

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 1
Boston 3
Orlando 5
Atlanta 15
Miami 17
Detroit 17
Philadelphia 17
Milwaukee 11
Chicago 12
New Jersey 12
Charlotte 12
Indiana 10
New York 11
Toronto 6

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 3
Boston 5
Orlando 7
Atlanta 17
Miami 17
Detroit 15
Philadelphia 15
Milwaukee 9
Chicago 10
New Jersey 10
Charlotte 10
Indiana 8
New York 9
Toronto 4

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 4
Boston 6
Orlando 8
Atlanta 8
Miami 7
Detroit 5
Philadelphia 5

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 15
Boston 17
Orlando 17
Atlanta 6
Miami 5
Detroit 3
Philadelphia 3

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 16
Boston 16
Orlando 15
Atlanta 4
Miami 3
Detroit 1
Philadelphia 1

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 0 (clinched)
San Antonio 9
Houston 10
Utah 11
New Orleans 12
Portland 12
Denver 11
Dallas 12
Phoenix 12
Golden State 1

At least 7th seed

Lakers 6
San Antonio 15
Houston 16
Utah 17
New Orleans 18
Portland 18
Denver 17
Dallas 17
Phoenix 11

At least 6th seed

Lakers 6
San Antonio 15
Houston 16
Utah 17
New Orleans 18
Portland 18
Denver 18
Dallas 18
Phoenix 12
Golden State 1

At least 5th seed

Lakers 7
San Antonio 16
Houston 17
Utah 18
New Orleans 19
Portland 19
Denver 18
Dallas 18
Phoenix 12
Golden State 1

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 8
San Antonio 17
Houston 18
Utah 19
New Orleans 19
Portland 18
Denver 17
Dallas 17
Phoenix 11

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 7
San Antonio 16
Houston 17
Utah 17
New Orleans 18
Portland 17
Denver 16
Dallas 16
Phoenix 10

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 7
San Antonio 16
Houston 16
Utah 16
New Orleans 17
Portland 16
Denver 15
Dallas 15
Phoenix 9

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 10
Houston 7
Utah 7
New Orleans 8
Portland 7
Denver 6
Dallas 6
Phoenix 0 (eliminated)

Raptors: 17 games left; best record possible = 40 wins; need to go 17-0 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

This is the bottom line. They need to win every single game from here to the end of the season to have a realistic chance at making the playoffs. Anybody have doubts?

Playoff probability = 0.1 % (down from 0.2 %); probability to win the lottery = 2.5 % (down from 2.7 %)
See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East: No changes to the Eastern rankings.

The Crabs may have clinched at least the 5th seed, Detroit and Philadelphia may be eliminated from the race for 1st seed, while Washington may be eliminated from the race for 6th seed, all depending on tie-breakers. It'll happen soon enough for sure, either way.

West: No change in the Western rankings either, but...

A Lakers (#1) win and a Phoenix (#9) loss (in seperate games) means that the Lakers have clinched both the first Western playoff spot, plus the division title last night. I hadn't even noticed, but as it stands, the Lakers are the only Pacific division team in the playoffs right now. Phoenix, at #9, is still 2nd and on the outside looking in. This also means that the Suns are eliminated from the race for 1st seed. The best they can do, mathematically, is 2nd seed. Also, the Warriors are still possibly hanging on to the races for 5th, 6th and 8th seed, depending on tie-breakers; but it's a question of time before they're actually knocked off for sure.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 18th February 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For playoff teams (bold), the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot. For the lottery teams, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs.

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet.

Eastern Conference:

Boston 9
Cleveland 12
Orlando 14
Atlanta 21
Miami 25
Detroit 26
Philadelphia 26
Milwaukee 26
Chicago 26
New Jersey 25
New York 25
Charlotte 24
Indiana 22
Toronto 21
Washington 14

Western Conference

Lakers 16
Denver 23
San Antonio 25
Portland 27
New Orleans 28
Houston 27
Dallas 28
Utah 29
Phoenix 29
Golden State 16
Minnesota 17
Memphis 13
OKC Sterns 11
Clippers 10
Sacto 8

The Eastern playoff picture is anything but clear.

In the West, the only current lottery team with a realistic shot at the playoffs is Phoenix. There's a huge divide between the first 9 teams and the rest. For those of you who are fans of tanking, the best place to be a bad team is in the West, where the good teams will really crush you and get you a good pick. Ironically, that keeps the best picks in the West, for the most part, which doesn't help with conference parity.

[ruckus]

Nice. This should probably get stickied.

How is the magic number calculated for Toronto? Is it a combination of their losses and wins of the teams above them?

[Shaazzam]

Nice. This should probably get stickied.

How is the magic number calculated for Toronto? Is it a combination of their losses and wins of the teams above them?

We can look at doing so after the deadline. Lots of stickies right now.

[disc0]

great thread. thanks tom baker.

[J-Roc]

Umm, for now, please change the thread title to the more appropriately named, TRAGIC NUMBER.

[Tom Baker]

Nice. This should probably get stickied.

How is the magic number calculated for Toronto? Is it a combination of their losses and wins of the teams above them?

We can look at doing so after the deadline. Lots of stickies right now.

No problem stickying (only on RealGM do you have to think about conjugating the verb "sticky") this thread for now. I actually should have thought of the deadline before posting this. I simply wanted to follow the post-All-Star-break run.

great thread. thanks tom baker.

You're welcome.

Umm, for now, please change the thread title to the more appropriately named, TRAGIC NUMBER.

I actually thought about not bothering this year since we're likely going to fall out of the playoffs. But, might as well follow it anyway. You never know. Plus there are other teams a lot of people follow.

[5DOM]

great thread. thanks

[Tom Baker]

great thread. thanks

Hey. No problem.

Nice. This should probably get stickied.

How is the magic number calculated for Toronto? Is it a combination of their losses and wins of the teams above them?

Missed this question earlier. Here's the basic formula:

Magic number for lottery team X = 83 - team X's losses - 8th seed team's wins

For your question, it's calculated using Toronto's losses and Milwaukee's (current 8th seed) wins.

I actually use a variation of this in my spreadsheet for simplicity since I had another calculation (best record possible) which already includes part of the above calculation. Saved me some steps.

EDIT: For example, say Milwaukee finishes the season at 41-41 and Toronto at 40-42.

Toronto's Magic Number would be:

83 - Toronto losses - Milwaukee win
= 83 - 42 - 41
= 0, so Toronto's eliminated in that scenario

[ruckus]

Cool. Thanks!

So, the number for the Raptors changes based on whoever is in the 8th position.

[s e n s i]

Great thread Tom.

Milwaukee's next 4 games are against CLE, DEN, DAL, and NO.

Our next 4 are against NY, NY, MIN, and PHO.

We can gain some solid ground here, granted Chicago loses a few, and Chris Bosh is back and playing well.

[Tom Baker]

Cool. Thanks!

So, the number for the Raptors changes based on whoever is in the 8th position.

Yes, and for the current playoff teams, their numbers are based on whoever's in 9th place. Basically, the formula's reversed.

Great thread Tom.

Milwaukee's next 4 games are against CLE, DEN, DAL, and NO.

Our next 4 are against NY, NY, MIN, and PHO.

We can gain some solid ground here, granted Chicago loses a few, and Chris Bosh is back and playing well.

I'd agree. We can definitely gain ground on Milwaukee. Operative word being "can". The door's open. I can't wait to see if the Raptors can manage to walk through it.

Of course, there are more teams than just Milwaukee in our way.

[yk24]

To simply put it...you are iLL!

[McFurious1]

bump

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 19th February 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For playoff teams (bold), the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot. For the lottery teams, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs.

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1. (More details when that possibility gets closer.)

Eastern Conference:

Boston 9
Cleveland 12
Orlando 14
Atlanta 21
Miami 25
Philadelphia 26
Detroit 26
Milwaukee 26
Chicago 26
New Jersey 25
New York 25
Charlotte 24
Indiana 22
Toronto 21
Washington 14

Western Conference

Lakers 16
Denver 23
San Antonio 24
Portland 27
New Orleans 28
Houston 27
Dallas 28
Utah 28
Phoenix 28
Golden State 15
Minnesota 16
Memphis 12
OKC Sterns 10
Clippers 9
Sacto 7

East: Philly and Detroit switch places after Detroit (and Boston) lose last night. None of the Magic Numbers change, though, since the #8 and #9 teams didn't play. (The numbers for Detroit and Boston would've changed if they'd won.)

West: SA wins, dropping their number by 1. Utah, the 8th seed, wins (a loss and they would've dropped out of the playoff picture), so their number drops by one and every current lottery team is dropped by 1 and brought ever closer to elimination.

EDIT: Oh, and I know I said I wouldn't show other numbers for now, but just for those interested, here are the only eliminations so far.

East:

Washington eliminated from getting 1st seed (best record in the East).

West:

The following teams are eliminated from getting 1st seed (best record in West):

Sacto
Clippers
OKC Sterns
Memphis

On paper (though not bloody likely), everyone else, including the Raptors, could still mathematically get 1st seed. :p

[T0R0NT0_RAPT0RS]

Great thread. Glad to see it back again. Really enjoyed it last year... and I think most people will be following it a bit more closely this year

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Great thread!

[DarthBane]

Just thought of a useful website that may be of use here.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NBA/East ... ptors.html

It basically outlines the percentage chance the Raptors have of making the playoffs. In addition it shows you how games played on each night affect the Raptors' chances and the percentage chance of getting a specific seed assuming they win X of the remaining Y games.

Pretty neat website and dare I say, I used it when tracking the Leafs rise to 9th place two seasons ago. *runs*

[J-Roc]

Sorry, but again, isn't it called a TRAGIC number for the team outside looking in?

[Crazy-Canuck]

This loss is huge with Char, NJ, Bulls, and Bucks on the verge of losing.